Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $120.82 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $120.82Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% | Key risksANF key risks include [1] managing brand relevance as evidenced by a 5% sales decline in its core Abercrombie brand and [2] navigating a projected $50 million net impact from trade tariffs. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Key risksANF key risks include [1] managing brand relevance as evidenced by a 5% sales decline in its core Abercrombie brand and [2] navigating a projected $50 million net impact from trade tariffs. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ANF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Strong Third-Quarter Performance and Raised Full-Year Outlook.**
Abercrombie & Fitch reported robust third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with net sales reaching $1.2 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year. Comparable sales also saw an impressive 16% rise. This strong performance across all regions and brands, particularly with Hollister delivering 15% comparable sales growth, led the company to raise its full-year sales growth guidance to 14-15% and its operating margin outlook to around 15%. This outperformance and optimistic outlook likely contributed significantly to positive stock movement.
**2. Increased Profit Forecast Amidst Strong Demand.**
In November 2025, Abercrombie & Fitch raised the lower end of its annual profit forecast, expecting net income per share for fiscal year 2025 to be between $10.20 and $10.50, up from an earlier forecast of $10.00 to $10.50. This upward revision was driven by strong demand for its apparel, including Hollister dresses, jeans, and jackets, benefiting from early holiday promotions.
**3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades.**
Abercrombie & Fitch has received a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, with several analysts issuing "Buy" ratings in recent months. This positive sentiment, coupled with price targets that suggest potential upside, indicates a favorable view of the company's prospects among financial experts, which can fuel investor confidence.
**4. Strong Comparable Sales Growth in Key Brands.**
Both Abercrombie and Hollister brands have demonstrated significant comparable sales growth. In Q3 fiscal 2024, Abercrombie brands delivered 11% comparable sales on top of 26% last year, while Hollister recorded 21% comparable sales on top of 7% last year. This consistent growth across its core brands highlights effective product and marketing strategies, attracting customers and driving revenue.
**5. Share Repurchase Programs and Enhanced Liquidity.**
Abercrombie & Fitch has demonstrated a strong capital allocation strategy, including significant share repurchases. In Q3 2024 alone, the company repurchased 720,687 shares for approximately $100 million. The company also announced a new $1.3 billion share repurchase authorization and expects $400 million in share repurchases for fiscal year 2025. This, combined with a robust liquidity position of approximately $1.1 billion and no long-term gross borrowings, signals financial strength and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ANF Return | 19% | 71% | -34% | 285% | 69% | -21% | 596% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 17% | -24% | 55% | 12% | 21% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ANF Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 50% | 32% | 62% | 52% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ANF Max Drawdown | -53% | 0% | -59% | -5% | 0% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -8% | -44% | -7% | -22% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEO, URBN, LULU, RL, PVH. See ANF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ANF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 552 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 497.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,506 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TJX, URBN, AEO, GES, ROST
In The Past
Abercrombie & Fitch's stock fell -69.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -69.9% loss requires a 232.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ANF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.4% | 38.4% | -25.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.4% | 38.4% | -25.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Abercrombie & Fitch
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 100.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,785 |
| Op Inc LTM | 688 |
| FCF LTM | 422 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 488 |
| CFO LTM | 627 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 683 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.5 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 14.5 |
| P/CFO | 11.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 25.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 171.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 27.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 74.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/26/2025 | 7.1% | -0.3% | |
| 8/28/2025 | -3.1% | -1.2% | -12.2% |
| 5/29/2025 | -5.5% | -4.2% | -0.2% |
| 3/6/2025 | 2.9% | -9.2% | -12.3% |
| 11/27/2024 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | 3.8% | -7.9% | -1.6% |
| 5/30/2024 | -3.1% | -1.5% | 3.4% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.2% | -1.9% | -6.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -7.0% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 19.0% | 31.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -13.7% | -30.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12052025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9052025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3312025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12062024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9062024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6072024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4012024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12042023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9012023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3272023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6082022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3282022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
