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ZTO Express (ZTO)

Market Price (9/4/2025): $18.2 | Market Cap: $14.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

ZTO Express (ZTO)

Market Price (9/4/2025): $18.2
Market Cap: $14.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 60%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 56%, FCF Yield is 129%		 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%		 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -53%		  
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%		  
3 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24%		  
4 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil		  
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%		  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 60%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 56%, FCF Yield is 129%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -53%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
3 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24%
4 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 19 Bil
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%

Market Valuation

 9/4/252024202320222021
Share Price CYE$18.20$19.17$19.92$24.82$25.81
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)14.615.416.120.120.9
Total Debt ($ Bil)18.917.315.413.14.4
Total Cash ($ Bil)26.522.319.817.412.6
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)6.932.731.533.225.3
Valuation Ratios     
P/S TTM0.30.40.50.60.8
P/EBIT TTM1.21.31.62.63.9
P/E TTM1.71.82.03.24.9
Sector Ratios     
P/S TTM (Sector)1.91.81.61.31.8
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)16.415.415.411.815.8
P/E TTM (Sector)25.021.721.917.221.7
 9/4/2520242023
Share Price CYE$18.20$19.17$19.92
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)14.615.416.1
Total Debt ($ Bil)18.917.315.4
Total Cash ($ Bil)26.522.319.8
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)6.932.731.5
Valuation Ratios   
P/S TTM0.30.40.5
P/EBIT TTM1.21.31.6
P/E TTM1.71.82.0
Sector Ratios   
P/S TTM (Sector)1.91.81.6
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)16.415.415.4
P/E TTM (Sector)25.021.721.9

Market Cap Chart

Business Description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. Show more

Price Returns Compared

Expand for Detailed View

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ZTO Return26%-2%-4%-20%-4%-3%15%
Peers Return34%18%-27%21%-4%1%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%10%100%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UPS, FDX, EXPD, CHRW, GXO.
[3] 2025 data is for the year up to 9/3/2025 (YTD)

Better Bets than ZTO Express (ZTO)

 ZTOBetter Performance than ZTO
MetricValueIndustry (Air Freight & Logistics)
Rev Chg LTM14.7%DSDVF (26.2%), DSDVY (26.2%), EXPD (23.7%), GXO (22.4%), FWRD (35.2%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.8%GXO (14.5%), FWRD (19.0%), CSCMY (82.5%)
Op Mgn LTM23.9%
CFO/Rev LTM40.2%
FCF/Rev LTM40.2%
Total Yield60.4%
 ZTOBetter Performance than ZTO
MetricValueAll Other Sectors
Rev Chg LTM14.7%NVDA (71.6%), MSFT (14.9%), META (19.4%), AVGO (33.9%), TSM (39.5%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.8%NVDA (92.0%), MSFT (12.5%), META (13.0%), AVGO (24.1%), TSM (22.5%)
Op Mgn LTM23.9%NVDA (58.1%), MSFT (45.6%), AAPL (31.9%), GOOGL (32.7%), META (42.9%)
CFO/Rev LTM40.2%NVDA (46.6%), MSFT (48.3%), META (56.4%), AVGO (40.7%), V (60.4%)
FCF/Rev LTM40.2%NVDA (43.6%), V (56.8%), MA (49.2%), PLTR (49.7%), IDCBF (158.4%)
Total Yield60.4%TSM (136.6%), IDCBF (132.8%), ACGBF (105.7%), IDCBY (135.8%), TOYOF (2128.7%)

Recent Active Movers

1 Week Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1EAFGrafTech International804.0%-47.2%
2RLMDRelmada Therapeutics122.3%182.7%
3XELAExela Technologies109.6%-95.5%
4PSNYWPolestar Automotive UK96.2%141.5%
5TKCMToken Communities82.8%-64.7%
6PHJMFPT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna66.7%34.8%
7ANGGFAngang Steel61.2%25.0%
8DTNOFDNO49.5%141.9%
9BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises48.5%54.9%
10MDBMongoDB46.0%34.4%

1 Week Top Losers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1COSGGrand Gallery-100.0%�
2PTLKFPT Lippo Karawaci-95.2%-94.7%
3NXTTNext Technology-74.5%-89.4%
4SCGYScientific Energy-72.7%-26.9%
5MGAWFMegaworld-71.0%-71.0%
6TTOOT2 Biosystems-67.7%-99.0%
7PTTMFPT Timah-62.8%-83.1%
8PIGEFPigeon-62.4%-62.4%
9NEGGNewegg Commerce-53.8%290.6%
10PTJSFPT Jasa Marga-50.9%-50.9%

1 Month Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1M RtnYTD Rtn
1MMEXMMEX Resources∞%-50.0%
2TAWNFThai Airways International3674.5%3400.0%
3NOKPFNok Airlines2400.0%81.8%
4AYRWFAyr Wellness509.5%-94.6%
5XELAExela Technologies379.0%-95.5%
6SRNESorrento Therapeutics233.3%900.0%
7PGENPrecigen169.9%324.1%
8TLSTelos154.7%89.2%
9SATSEchoStar142.7%179.1%
10RLMDRelmada Therapeutics139.0%182.7%

1 Month Top Losers

#TickerCompany1M RtnYTD Rtn
1COSGGrand Gallery-100.0%�
2PTLKFPT Lippo Karawaci-95.2%-94.7%
3TTOOT2 Biosystems-94.8%-99.0%
4NXTTNext Technology-86.5%-89.4%
5OTRKOntrak-78.2%-96.6%
6SCGYScientific Energy-72.7%-26.9%
7PPCBPropanc Biopharma-72.1%-79.1%
8MGAWFMegaworld-71.0%-71.0%
9PTTMFPT Timah-62.8%-83.1%
10PIGEFPigeon-62.4%-62.4%

Recent Active Movers

1 Week Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1EAFGrafTech International804.0%-47.2%
2RLMDRelmada Therapeutics122.3%182.7%
3XELAExela Technologies109.6%-95.5%
4PSNYWPolestar Automotive UK96.2%141.5%
5TKCMToken Communities82.8%-64.7%
6PHJMFPT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna66.7%34.8%
7ANGGFAngang Steel61.2%25.0%
8DTNOFDNO49.5%141.9%
9BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises48.5%54.9%
10MDBMongoDB46.0%34.4%

1 Week Top Losers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1COSGGrand Gallery-100.0%�
2PTLKFPT Lippo Karawaci-95.2%-94.7%
3NXTTNext Technology-74.5%-89.4%
4SCGYScientific Energy-72.7%-26.9%
5MGAWFMegaworld-71.0%-71.0%
6TTOOT2 Biosystems-67.7%-99.0%
7PTTMFPT Timah-62.8%-83.1%
8PIGEFPigeon-62.4%-62.4%
9NEGGNewegg Commerce-53.8%290.6%
10PTJSFPT Jasa Marga-50.9%-50.9%

More From Trefis

Research & Analysis

Invest in Strategies

Wealth Management

Peer Comparisons for ZTO Express

Financials

ZTOUPSFDXEXPDCHRWGXOMedian
NameZTO Expr.United P.FedEx Expedito.C.H. Rob.GXO Logi. 
Mkt Price18.0285.29225.34120.40128.7951.11102.84
Mkt Cap14.472.253.616.415.55.915.9
Rev LTM46,31890,31387,92611,27317,01312,68331,665
Op Inc LTM11,0798,3995,9941,1167573863,555
FCF LTM18,6293,5392,981810641931,896
FCF 3Y Avg14,6984,7972,9301,1049071782,017
CFO LTM18,6297,4797,0368627104163,949
CFO 3Y Avg14,6989,6128,0651,1529914944,609

Growth & Margins

ZTOUPSFDXEXPDCHRWGXOMedian
NameZTO Expr.United P.FedEx Expedito.C.H. Rob.GXO Logi. 
Rev Chg LTM14.7%0.9%0.3%23.7%-2.6%22.4%7.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.8%-3.3%-2.0%-12.5%-13.2%14.5%-2.7%
Rev Chg Q10.3%-2.7%0.5%8.7%-7.7%15.9%4.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%-0.7%0.1%1.9%-2.0%3.7%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM23.9%9.3%6.8%9.9%4.4%3.0%8.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.2%9.9%6.6%10.1%3.7%3.4%8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.4%-0.1%-0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM40.2%8.3%8.0%7.6%4.2%3.3%7.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.2%10.4%9.1%10.1%5.2%4.7%9.6%
FCF/Rev LTM40.2%3.9%3.4%7.2%3.8%0.7%3.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg35.2%5.2%3.3%9.7%4.8%1.7%5.0%

Valuation

ZTOUPSFDXEXPDCHRWGXOMedian
NameZTO Expr.United P.FedEx Expedito.C.H. Rob.GXO Logi. 
Mkt Cap14.472.253.616.415.55.915.9
P/S0.30.80.61.50.90.50.7
P/EBIT1.28.98.614.720.526.411.8
P/E1.712.613.119.229.093.116.2
P/CFO0.89.77.619.021.814.111.9
Total Yield60.4%15.4%10.1%6.5%5.4%1.1%8.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%7.5%2.5%1.3%1.9%0.0%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg89.9%4.0%4.7%6.4%8.1%2.9%5.5%
D/E1.30.40.70.00.10.90.5
Net D/E-0.50.30.6-0.00.10.90.2

Returns

ZTOUPSFDXEXPDCHRWGXOMedian
NameZTO Expr.United P.FedEx Expedito.C.H. Rob.GXO Logi. 
1M Rtn-12.0%2.2%3.6%3.0%12.0%5.4%3.3%
3M Rtn5.7%-11.8%3.6%7.9%33.9%22.2%6.8%
6M Rtn-11.6%-25.8%-8.9%2.7%33.2%32.8%-3.1%
12M Rtn-15.7%-28.9%-21.5%-1.1%27.4%4.6%-8.4%
3Y Rtn-25.9%-49.3%14.6%22.8%20.1%18.7%16.6%
1M Excs Rtn-13.9%0.3%1.7%1.1%10.1%3.6%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-2.6%-19.4%-4.8%-0.3%25.7%16.1%-1.4%
6M Excs Rtn-22.3%-36.0%-19.6%-9.0%21.0%26.1%-14.3%
12M Excs Rtn-27.6%-43.9%-37.6%-15.5%12.9%-11.7%-21.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.9%-108.9%-48.7%-39.9%-38.2%-46.5%-47.6%

Financials

$ Mil | FY: 12/312025Q22025Q12024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q42023Q32023Q22023Q12022Q42022Q3
Period End6/30/20253/31/202512/31/20249/30/20246/30/20243/31/202412/31/20239/30/20236/30/20233/31/202312/31/20229/30/2022
Filing Date8/20/20255/21/20254/17/202511/20/20248/21/20245/16/20244/19/202411/17/20238/30/20235/18/20234/20/202311/22/2022
Key Financials Quarterly            
Total Revenue11,83210,89112,92010,67510,7269,96010,6199,0769,7408,9839,8718,945
Ebitda2,6112,6363,5632,9783,3912,0822,9192,6943,1782,1882,6732,380
Operating Income2,4152,3693,4532,8423,2152,2672,7552,4242,8791,9502,4602,175
Net Income1,9381,9932,3832,3962,6121,4262,1922,3452,5411,6702,1631,935
EPS2.422.502.972.983.241.772.722.913.142.072.672.39
Key Financials TTM            
Total Revenue TTM46,31845,21244,28141,98040,38139,39638,41937,67137,54036,45635,37734,723
Ebitda TTM11,78912,56812,01311,36911,08510,87210,97810,73310,4199,4518,4777,932
Operating Income TTM11,07911,88011,77711,07910,66110,32410,0089,7139,4648,5717,7367,331
Net Income TTM8,7119,3848,8178,6268,5758,5058,7498,7198,3097,5736,8096,409
Growth Rates Quarterly            
Total Revenue Growth10.3%9.4%21.7%17.6%10.1%10.9%7.6%1.5%12.5%13.7%7.1%21.0%
EBITDA Growth-23.0%26.6%22.1%10.5%6.7%-4.8%9.2%13.2%43.8%80.3%25.6%64.2%
Operating Income Growth-24.9%4.5%25.3%17.3%11.7%16.2%12.0%11.4%45.0%74.7%19.8%59.9%
Net Income Growth-25.8%39.8%8.7%2.2%2.8%-14.6%1.4%21.2%40.8%84.3%22.7%65.9%
Margins Quarterly            
EBITDA Margin22.1%24.2%27.6%27.9%31.6%20.9%27.5%29.7%32.6%24.4%27.1%26.6%
Operating Income Margin20.4%21.8%26.7%26.6%30.0%22.8%25.9%26.7%29.6%21.7%24.9%24.3%
Net Income Margin16.4%18.3%18.4%22.4%24.4%14.3%20.6%25.8%26.1%18.6%21.9%21.6%
Cash & Debt            
Total Cash26,52423,02222,31422,91720,44119,62219,78916,93815,73818,43417,44621,545
Total Debt18,87417,08317,34518,29018,09115,78615,43817,48714,59814,28613,12314,874
Net Debt / (Cash)-7,650-5,939-4,969-4,627-2,350-3,836-4,351550-1,140-4,148-4,323-6,671
Cash Flows Quarterly            
FCF from Operations2,1682,36310,9863,1123,4802,0313,9232,9383,7622,7383,7702,823
Cash Flows TTM            
FCF from Operations TTM18,62919,94119,60912,54612,37312,65413,36113,20813,09313,11211,47910,733
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly            
Dividends000000000000
Share Repurchases-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly            
ROIC46.8%42.7%57.1%48.7%48.7%33.1%46.0%37.0%42.9%36.5%43.7%44.3%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM            
ROIC TTM53.1%52.0%52.8%45.7%40.5%42.4%44.0%34.2%34.9%40.9%34.2%37.0%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment38,41935,377   
Express delivery services  27,45121,90019,606
Freight forwarding services  1,5301,8631,236
Others  194318178
Sale of accessories  1,2311,1341,090
Total38,41935,37730,40625,21422,110


Price Behavior

ZTO Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.240.420.550.570.500.55
Up Beta1.15-0.39-0.540.690.650.70
Down Beta-0.67-0.100.560.250.210.31
Up Capture-36%88%83%50%31%15%
Bmk +ve Days10223571142415
Stock +ve Days9192959120351
Down Capture105%120%125%80%74%88%
Bmk -ve Days11192754106334
Stock -ve Days12223366128390

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,304,512
Short Interest: % Change Since 7312025-0.2%
Average Daily Volume1,935,374
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.87
Basic Shares Quantity799,752,637
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Insider Activity

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