HubSpot (HUBS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $387.18 | Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
HubSpot (HUBS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $387.18Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -47 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 1,086x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% | |
| Key risksHUBS key risks include [1] intense competition from both large enterprise companies and specialized providers that could pressure pricing and market share, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -47 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 1,086x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Key risksHUBS key risks include [1] intense competition from both large enterprise companies and specialized providers that could pressure pricing and market share, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HUBS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The HubSpot (HUBS) stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 19.8% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement:
1. Broader Market Trends and Macroeconomic Pressures: HubSpot's stock performance was heavily influenced by wider macroeconomic pressures, including higher interest rates making growth stocks less attractive and concerns about a potential recession. Institutional investors were observed rebalancing portfolios, moving away from the Software as a Service (SaaS) sector, leading to systematic selling pressure on high-growth tech stocks like HubSpot.
2. Valuation Concerns and Market Correction: Despite strong financial performance and positive forecasts from HubSpot, the stock was trading at high multiples for years. The prevailing market environment in late 2025 forced a correction, with investors unwilling to pay premium prices for growth, even for profitable SaaS companies. This suggests the decline was more about a re-evaluation of the stock's valuation rather than issues within the company itself.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HUBS Return | 150% | 66% | -56% | 101% | 20% | -47% | 134% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 59% | -9% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HUBS Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 58% | 57% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HUBS Max Drawdown | -34% | -12% | -61% | -6% | -22% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -11% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, CRM, ADBE, BMR. See HUBS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HUBS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, IBM, CRM, ADBE, BMR
In The Past
HubSpot's stock fell -69.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -69.9% loss requires a 232.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| HubSpot Earnings Notes | |||
| Is 24.5% Fall In HubSpot (HUBS) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| With HubSpot Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Is The 21.0% Decline In HubSpot (HUBS) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| How Does HubSpot Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Is The 25.0% Decline In HubSpot (HUBS) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| HUBS Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| HubSpot Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 20.0% in 2024 and 1.9% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| HubSpot (HUBS) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| HubSpot (HUBS) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| HubSpot Stock To $261? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| HUBS Lost 10% In A Day. Do You Buy Or Wait? | October 1st, 2025 | ||
| Has HUBS Stock Become A Bargain After Dropping 21%? | August 20th, 2025 | ||
| HUBS Fell 21% In A Month. What To Do Now?. | August 13th, 2025 | ||
| HUBS Shares Tumbled 25%, Opportunity Or Trap? | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HUBS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HubSpot
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 328.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 244.3 |
| Rev LTM | 40,317 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,880 |
| FCF LTM | 11,854 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,194 |
| CFO LTM | 13,483 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 244.3 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| P/EBIT | 27.5 |
| P/E | 33.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 99.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.0% | -15.1% | -17.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -6.2% | -11.1% | -1.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -8.7% | 0.6% | -8.2% |
| 2/12/2025 | 4.4% | -4.8% | -22.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 7.8% | 17.1% | 24.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.5% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| 2/14/2024 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.3% | 5.9% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -5.0% | -8.2% |
| Max Positive | 16.4% | 25.9% | 25.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.0% | -15.1% | -27.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |