Yum China (YUMC)
Market Price (6/24/2026): $40.72 | Market Cap: $14.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Yum China (YUMC)
Market Price (6/24/2026): $40.72Market Cap: $14.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 6.4% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Key risksYUMC key risks include [1] its vulnerability to China's dynamic regulatory and geopolitical environment and [2] potential government scrutiny of its variable interest entity (VIE) corporate structure. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 6.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Key risksYUMC key risks include [1] its vulnerability to China's dynamic regulatory and geopolitical environment and [2] potential government scrutiny of its variable interest entity (VIE) corporate structure. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Yum China (YUMC) stock has lost about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Performance with Margin Pressures.
Yum China reported mixed first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, which contributed to investor caution. While total revenues increased 10% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87 either met or slightly missed analyst estimates. Same-store sales remained flat, reaching 100% of the prior year's level, indicating challenges in achieving significant growth from existing locations. A notable negative was the decrease in restaurant margin by 40 basis points year-over-year to 18.2%, primarily due to increased rider costs associated with a higher delivery mix, with rider costs accounting for nearly 30% of the cost of labor.
2. Uneven Consumer Recovery and Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds in China.
The company provided cautious near-term guidance, citing an uneven consumer recovery across China. Despite some signs of economic acceleration in industrial output and foreign trade in early 2026, domestic consumption has remained subdued. The struggling property sector continues to exert pressure on overall domestic demand, and broader consumer caution, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, has weighed on sentiment within the restaurant sector.
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Yum China (YUMC) stock has lost about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Performance with Margin Pressures.
Yum China reported mixed first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, which contributed to investor caution. While total revenues increased 10% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87 either met or slightly missed analyst estimates. Same-store sales remained flat, reaching 100% of the prior year's level, indicating challenges in achieving significant growth from existing locations. A notable negative was the decrease in restaurant margin by 40 basis points year-over-year to 18.2%, primarily due to increased rider costs associated with a higher delivery mix, with rider costs accounting for nearly 30% of the cost of labor.
2. Uneven Consumer Recovery and Broader Macroeconomic Headwinds in China.
The company provided cautious near-term guidance, citing an uneven consumer recovery across China. Despite some signs of economic acceleration in industrial output and foreign trade in early 2026, domestic consumption has remained subdued. The struggling property sector continues to exert pressure on overall domestic demand, and broader consumer caution, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, has weighed on sentiment within the restaurant sector.
3. Exclusion from Key Regional Bidding Opportunity.
News reports indicating Yum China's exclusion from the second-round bidder list for KFC and Pizza Hut operations in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan contributed to the stock's decline. This development was a specific company-related negative event that, alongside post-earnings pressure, weighed on shares, with the stock falling approximately 11% since the Q1 report.
4. Significant Insider Selling.
Between late February and early March 2026, there was notable insider selling activity. Specifically, CEO Joey Wat sold 104,000 shares of Yum China stock on February 13, 2026, for a total value of $5,738,720.00. This transaction exceeded the $5 million threshold and signaled a negative sentiment from a key executive.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.5% change in YUMC stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.25 | 40.96 | -24.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,797 | 12,087 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 7.8% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.0 | 15.3 | -27.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 360 | 353 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -24.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.2% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.5% | 31.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.4% change in YUMC stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.32 | 40.96 | -13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,569 | 12,087 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.3 | 15.3 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 368 | 353 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 25.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.4% | 20.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in YUMC stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.68 | 40.96 | -4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,326 | 12,087 | 6.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 7.8% | -3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.5 | 15.3 | -12.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 376 | 353 | 6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.9% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.3% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.4% change in YUMC stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.46 | 40.96 | -23.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,818 | 12,087 | 23.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 7.8% | 21.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.4 | 15.3 | -56.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 418 | 353 | 18.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -23.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.4% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 53.8% | 29.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YUMC Return | -12% | 11% | -22% | 15% | 1% | -12% | -21% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -6% | 21% | 4% | -2% | -0% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YUMC Win Rate | 25% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 43% | 58% | 50% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YUMC Max Drawdown | -32% | -32% | -38% | -33% | -23% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -27% | -18% | -20% | -24% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, CMG. See YUMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YUMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 786 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Yum China's stock fell -12.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | YUMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 786 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Yum China's stock fell -12.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Yum China (YUMC)
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) is a leading restaurant company that exclusively owns, operates, and franchises a vast portfolio of quick-service and casual dining establishments across China. The company serves as the master franchisor for several globally recognized brands while also developing its own local concepts tailored to the unique tastes of the Chinese market.
The company's core business revolves around its diverse brand portfolio, which includes internationally renowned names like KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. It also features popular local Chinese brands such as Little Sheep (hot pot) and Huang Ji Huang (simmer pot), alongside coffee concepts like Lavazza and COFFii & JOY, offering a wide array of food categories from chicken and pizza to specialty coffee and traditional Chinese cuisine.
Beyond its extensive restaurant operations, Yum China also operates V-Gold Mall, a mobile e-commerce platform selling various merchandise, including electronics, home accessories, and ready-to-eat meals. With nearly 12,000 restaurants spread across approximately 1,600 cities as of late 2021, Yum China's primary market is the vast and growing consumer base throughout mainland China, catering to diverse tastes and preferences.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Yum China (YUMC):
- Essentially, it's the Yum! Brands (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell's global parent) of China.
- Imagine a Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse) but for fast food, coffee, and local cuisine, with thousands of locations across China.
- Like a multi-brand McDonald's for China, operating KFC, Pizza Hut, and other chains across the country.
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- Restaurant Food & Beverages: A diverse range of food and drink offerings including chicken, pizza, hot pot, simmer pot, Mexican-style food, and various coffee beverages across its portfolio of restaurant brands.
- Restaurant Franchising Services: Licensing and providing operational support for independent operators to establish and run restaurants under its various brand names.
- E-commerce Retail: An online platform, V-Gold Mall, offering a selection of electronics, home accessories, general merchandise, ready-to-eat meals, and coffee capsules.
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Yum China (YUMC) primarily sells to individuals through its extensive network of restaurants and its e-commerce platform. Its major customers can be categorized as:
- Diners at Quick Service Restaurants: This includes individuals seeking convenient, fast food and beverage options from brands like KFC, Taco Bell, Lavazza, and COFFii & JOY across various cities in China.
- Diners at Casual Dining Restaurants: This category encompasses individuals and families looking for sit-down dining experiences at brands such as Pizza Hut, Little Sheep, Huang Ji Huang, and East Dawning, which offer pizza, hot pot, simmer pot, and Chinese cuisine.
- Online Consumers via V-Gold Mall: Individuals who purchase ready meals (e.g., fried rice, steak, pasta), coffee capsules, electronics, home and kitchen accessories, and other general merchandise through the company's mobile e-commerce platform.
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Joey Wat, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Joey Wat was appointed CEO of Yum China in March 2018 and has been a member of its Board of Directors since July 2017. Prior to her current role, she served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Yum China from 2017 to 2018, and as CEO of KFC China from 2015 to 2017. Before joining Yum! Restaurants China in 2014 as President of KFC China, Ms. Wat spent ten years at A.S. Watson Group UK, where she held various management and strategy positions, including Managing Director of Watson U.K. She is recognized for successfully turning around the Savers health and beauty store chain during her tenure at A.S. Watson Group. Earlier in her career, she dedicated seven years to management consulting, working with firms such as McKinsey & Company in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2003 and AT Kearney. Ms. Wat holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and a bachelor's degree from the University of Hong Kong.
Andy Yeung, Chief Financial Officer
Andy Yeung assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer for Yum China in October 2019. Before his appointment at Yum China, Mr. Yeung served as the Chief Financial Officer of Smart Finance International Limited, a financial technology company, from April 2017 to August 2019. From January 2014 to March 2017, he was the Chief Financial Officer of Cheetah Mobile Inc., a mobile internet company listed on the NYSE. Earlier, between 2009 and 2013, Mr. Yeung worked at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. as director, executive director, and managing director, where he was responsible for research coverage of China's internet and media sectors. His professional background also includes experience in equity research, management consulting, and credit risk management in the United States. Mr. Yeung holds an MBA from the Yale University School of Management and dual degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.
Leila Zhang, Chief Technology Officer
Leila Zhang has served as the Chief Technology Officer of Yum China since March 2018.
Jerry Ding, Chief People Officer
Jerry Ding has served as Yum China's Chief People Officer since August 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Head of Corporate Strategy from November 2019 to July 2023 and also served as the brand leader for Taco Bell from November 2021 to May 2023. Before joining Yum China, Mr. Ding worked at McKinsey & Company for more than six years, specializing in developing corporate-level strategies. He earned a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science from Yale University and a B.S. from Tsinghua University.
Xueling Lu, Controller and Principal Accounting Officer
Xueling Lu has held the position of Controller and Principal Accounting Officer at Yum China since January 2018. She joined the company in November 2016 as Senior Director, Finance. Before her tenure at Yum China, Ms. Lu was the Asia Pacific Controller of Lear Corporation from 2013 to 2016. She also spent ten years in public accounting with Ernst & Young, where her work focused on audits, initial public offerings for companies listed in the U.S., SEC reporting, and Sarbanes-Oxley compliance.
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For Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC), the key risks to the business are primarily concentrated around its deep reliance on the Chinese market and the inherent complexities of operating within it.
- Dependence on the Chinese Market and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Yum China derives nearly all its revenue from operations in China, making it highly susceptible to the country's economic performance and stability. A slower-than-expected economic recovery, cautious consumer spending, or deflationary pressures in China can directly impact sales volumes and overall profitability. This concentration limits diversification benefits and increases vulnerability to regional disruptions.
- Intense Competition: The Chinese restaurant industry is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation and intense competition from numerous local and international players. This competitive landscape necessitates continuous innovation, adaptation of offerings, and compelling value propositions to maintain market share and can put pressure on profit margins.
- Regulatory and Operational Risks in China: Operating in China presents unique and complex regulatory and operational challenges. These include evolving food safety regulations, labor laws, foreign investment policies, and the potential for government intervention. Historically, food safety incidents have posed significant threats to Yum China's reputation and operations, potentially leading to negative publicity, legal liabilities, and temporary restaurant closures, thereby adversely affecting sales and customer trust. Additionally, changes in political, business, economic, and trade relations between the U.S. and China could materially affect the company's business.
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The clear emerging threat for Yum China is the proliferation and increasing sophistication of **delivery-only ghost kitchens and virtual brands** in China. These entities operate professional cooking facilities dedicated solely to fulfilling online delivery orders, bypassing the significant overheads associated with traditional dine-in restaurants (e.g., prime real estate, front-of-house staff, extensive branding for physical locations). Leveraging China's robust food delivery platforms, these ghost kitchens can offer a diverse array of cuisines with greater operational agility, lower cost structures, and rapid menu adaptation, directly challenging Yum China's established physical restaurant model, particularly for its delivery and take-out segments across all its brands.
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The addressable markets for Yum China's main products and services in China are substantial:
- Fast Food (KFC, Taco Bell, East Dawning): The fast-food restaurant market in China was valued at approximately $187.8 billion in 2024. This market has experienced a growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% between 2019 and 2024. It is projected to grow at an 8.35% CAGR from 2025 to 2035.
- Pizza (Pizza Hut): The pizza market in China is estimated to be valued at $10.98 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach $20.75 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.58% from 2025 to 2035. Another projection indicates the market could surpass 100 billion yuan (about $13.9 billion USD) over the next five years, growing from 48 billion yuan in 2024 to 60.8 billion yuan in 2025.
- Hot Pot (Little Sheep, Huang Ji Huang): China's hot pot with food market accounts for approximately $175 billion USD of the global market in 2024. The overall hot pot market scale in China is expected to reach 650 billion yuan.
- Coffee (Lavazza, COFFii & JOY): China's coffee market is estimated at $42 billion in 2024. The market is projected to grow from USD 24.61 billion in 2024 to USD 30.57 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 2.75% during the forecast period of 2025-2032.
- E-commerce (V-Gold Mall): China's e-commerce market reached US$3.1 trillion in 2024 and is projected to grow by 6.3% annually, climbing to US$3.85 trillion by 2028.
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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive Store Expansion and Penetration into Lower-Tier Cities: Yum China plans substantial new store openings, aiming to open between 1,600 and 1,800 net new stores in 2025 and over 1,900 in 2026. The company has a clear objective to surpass 20,000 stores nationwide by 2026 and exceed 25,000 by 2028. This expansion is particularly focused on lower-tier cities, utilizing simpler operating models like KFC's 'small-time mini' and Pizza Hut's 'WOW' stores to broaden market reach and capture new demand.
- Increased Franchisee Participation: To accelerate scalability and reduce capital intensity, Yum China is increasingly relying on franchising. The company aims for 40-50% of KFC's net new openings and 20-30% for Pizza Hut to be franchisee-operated in the coming years.
- Menu Innovation and Diversification into Emerging Brands/New Concepts: The company consistently introduces new and upgraded menu items, launching approximately 600 in 2024. Beyond its core KFC and Pizza Hut brands, Yum China is actively diversifying its business through new concepts and strategic partnerships, including expanding its presence in the coffee sector with brands like Lavazza and KCoffee. Innovative concepts such as 'Pizza Hut Wow' stores and the "Gemini" model (KFC and Pizza Hut side-by-side) are also being introduced to broaden market appeal.
- Digital Transformation and Loyalty Program Growth: Digital channels are a significant driver of sales, accounting for 93% of sales in 2025. Yum China's loyalty program boasts over 590 million members and contributes significantly to system sales. Ongoing investments in digitalization, including AI and generative AI for operational efficiency, supply chain optimization, and restaurant management, are expected to further enhance sales and customer engagement.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Yum China (YUMC) Over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- Yum China plans to return $4.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases between 2024 and 2026.
- For the first nine months of 2024, the company repurchased $1.06 billion in shares, equivalent to approximately 7% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2023.
- As of December 11, 2025, the Board of Directors increased the share repurchase authorization by $1 billion, bringing the total authorization to $5.4 billion, with approximately $1.2 billion remaining for future repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In March 2024, Yum China filed for a share offering of 600,000 shares of common stock for participants in its Long Term Incentive Plan.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2021, Yum China acquired a 5% equity interest in Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd., which is China's largest white-feathered chicken producer and Yum China's largest poultry supplier.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Yum China were $689 million in 2021, $679 million in 2022, and $710 million in 2023.
- For the 2024-2026 period, total capital expenditure is anticipated to range from $3.5 billion to $5.0 billion, with more than half ($2.3 billion to $3.0 billion) allocated to expand the restaurant network to reach 20,000 stores by 2026.
- Average annual capital expenditure is expected to be between $600 million and $700 million from 2026 to 2028, primarily focused on new store openings and investments in supply chain and digital initiatives.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 86.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.1 |
| Rev LTM | 12,113 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,576 |
| FCF LTM | 1,606 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,460 |
| CFO LTM | 2,115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,928 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.1 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 25.1 |
| P/CFO | 18.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFC | 8,871 | 8,509 | 8,240 | 7,219 | 7,003 |
| Pizza Hut | 2,324 | 2,260 | 2,246 | 1,960 | 2,109 |
| All Other Segments | 934 | 789 | 779 | 671 | 473 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | 418 | 353 | 293 | 253 | 520 |
| Elimination | -750 | -608 | -580 | -534 | -252 |
| Total | 11,797 | 11,303 | 10,978 | 9,569 | 9,853 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFC | 1,285 | 1,192 | 1,202 | 787 | 827 |
| Pizza Hut | 183 | 153 | 142 | 70 | 111 |
| Elimination | 0 | 0 | |||
| All Other Segments | -1 | -15 | -31 | -50 | -29 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | -177 | -168 | -207 | -178 | |
| Unallocated and corporate General and Administrative (G&A) expenses | -171 | ||||
| Unallocated expenses for transactions with franchisees | -497 | ||||
| Unallocated other income, net | 642 | ||||
| Unallocated other operating costs and expenses | -17 | ||||
| Unallocated other revenues | 20 | ||||
| Unallocated revenues from transactions with franchisees | 500 | ||||
| Total | 1,290 | 1,162 | 1,106 | 629 | 1,386 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFC | 5,560 | 5,334 | 5,371 | 5,296 | 6,072 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | 3,963 | 4,573 | 5,409 | 5,269 | 5,725 |
| Pizza Hut | 952 | 914 | 904 | 880 | 972 |
| All Other Segments | 308 | 300 | 347 | 381 | 454 |
| Total | 10,783 | 11,121 | 12,031 | 11,826 | 13,223 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $40.96 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 14.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/17/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $45.62 | $47.06 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.2% | -13.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.9% | 25.5% |
| Downside Capture | 81.10 | 53.37 |
| Upside Capture | -30.50 | 34.47 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.67 |
| Up Beta | 0.52 | 1.55 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| Down Beta | 0.88 | 1.53 | 1.34 | 0.42 | 0.19 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | -100% | -42% | -19% | 29% | 31% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 54 | 123 | 351 |
| Down Capture | 142% | 81% | 108% | 81% | 67% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 39 | 69 | 125 | 395 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -2.2% | 25.6% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.9% | 18.6% | 0.32 | 20.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.6% | 12.5% | 1.48 | 20.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.6% | 0.70 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.7% | 18.8% | 0.69 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.3% | 13.8% | 0.60 | 23.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.0% | 42.5% | -1.01 | -2.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC | -8.3% | 37.2% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.6% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 33.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.3% | 0.74 | 9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 26.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.7% | 54.1% | 0.38 | 17.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YUMC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC | 5.2% | 35.3% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 36.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.1% | 0.61 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 12.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 24.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.0% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 10.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 2.9% | 2.2% | -8.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.1% | -4.5% | -4.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | -7.2% | -6.3% | -3.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.1% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | 7.2% | 9.4% | 4.9% |
| 8/5/2024 | 12.0% | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -5.5% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 16.8% | 27.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -15.3% | -17.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 2.9% | 2.2% | -8.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.1% | -4.5% | -4.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | -7.2% | -6.3% | -3.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.1% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| 11/4/2024 | 7.2% | 9.4% | 4.9% |
| 8/5/2024 | 12.0% | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| 4/29/2024 | -8.8% | -5.9% | -12.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | 7.9% | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| 10/31/2023 | -15.2% | -15.3% | -17.6% |
| 7/31/2023 | -6.0% | -7.2% | -11.9% |
| 5/2/2023 | 1.3% | 0.2% | -7.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | -0.6% | 0.1% | -4.4% |
| 11/1/2022 | 7.6% | 16.8% | 27.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.8% | -5.1% | 9.4% |
| 2/8/2022 | 1.5% | 11.3% | -4.6% |
| 10/27/2021 | -1.3% | -2.3% | -12.6% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.0% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 4/27/2021 | 5.9% | 2.8% | 10.1% |
| 2/3/2021 | -2.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| 10/28/2020 | 3.8% | 5.8% | 12.1% |
| 7/29/2020 | -5.6% | -1.0% | 2.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -5.5% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 16.8% | 27.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -15.3% | -17.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net New Stores | 1,900 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1,900 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 600.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 700.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Return to Shareholders | 1.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Stores | 20,000 | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Capital Return to Shareholders | 900.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2028 Capital Return to Shareholders | 1.00 Bil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net New Stores | 1,900 | 11.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1,700 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 600.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 700.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Returns to Shareholders | 1.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lu, Xueling | Controller and PAO | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 55.84 | 23,504 | 1,312,404 | 504,883 | Form |
| 2 | Wat, Joey | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 55.18 | 104,000 | 5,738,720 | 23,909,825 | Form |
| 3 | Wat, Joey | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 57.01 | 4,613 | 262,987 | 30,631,815 | Form |
| 4 | Zhang, Leila | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 55.25 | 5,193 | 286,913 | 3,305,331 | Form |
| 5 | Ding, Jerry | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 55.14 | 3,000 | 165,420 | 50,453 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lu, Xueling | Controller and PAO | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 55.84 | 23,504 | 1,312,404 | 504,883 | Form |
| 2 | Wat, Joey | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 55.18 | 104,000 | 5,738,720 | 23,909,825 | Form |
| 3 | Wat, Joey | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 57.01 | 4,613 | 262,987 | 30,631,815 | Form |
| 4 | Zhang, Leila | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 55.25 | 5,193 | 286,913 | 3,305,331 | Form |
| 5 | Ding, Jerry | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 55.14 | 3,000 | 165,420 | 50,453 | Form |
| 6 | Zhang, Leila | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 47.22 | 7,689 | 363,075 | 2,751,132 | Form |
| 7 | Huang, Duoduo (howard) | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 48.10 | 4,888 | 235,113 | 1,082,731 | Form |
| 8 | Wang, Warton | General Manager, KFC | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 48.28 | 8,187 | 395,268 | 2,261,773 | Form |
| 9 | Kuai, Jeff | General Manager, Pizza Hut | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 48.00 | 5,167 | 248,016 | 2,716,896 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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