Tearsheet

Yum China (YUMC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.54 | Market Cap: $17.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Yum China (YUMC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.54
Market Cap: $17.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 5.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.1%, FCF Yield is 5.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

YUMC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between approximately November and December 4, 2025, Yum China Holdings (YUMC) experienced a stock increase of approximately 6.25%, driven by several key factors. **1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance.** Yum China reported robust third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.76, meeting consensus estimates, and revenues reaching $3.21 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. This represented a 4.4% year-over-year increase in revenue. **2. Aggressive Store Expansion Strategy.** The company reaffirmed its commitment to an ambitious expansion plan, aiming to open between 1,600 and 1,800 new stores in 2025, backed by capital expenditures of $600-$700 million. This ongoing growth strategy signals future revenue potential. **3. Plans for Increased Dividend Payouts.** Yum China's management announced intentions to increase dividend payouts starting in 2027 during an investor day presentation. This forward-looking approach to shareholder returns can enhance investor confidence. **4. Positive Analyst Ratings and Outlook.** Several analysts maintained or issued "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings for YUMC shares in late November and early December 2025, with price targets suggesting potential upside for the stock. **5. Solid Operational Metrics.** The third-quarter 2025 results highlighted strong operational performance, including a 4% year-over-year growth in total system sales and an 8% rise in operating profit. The company also demonstrated a healthy free cash flow margin.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
YUMC Return19%-12%11%-22%15%2%8%
Peers Return15%19%-4%32%-3%-13%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
YUMC Win Rate67%25%58%42%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%57%40%60%48%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
YUMC Max Drawdown-18%-17%-26%-27%-31%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-7%-24%-3%-18%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMG, YUM, QSR, DRI, BLMN. See YUMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventYUMCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven48 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven417 days120 days

Compare to CMG, YUM, QSR, DRI, BLMN


In The Past

Yum China's stock fell -47.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -47.3% loss requires a 89.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Yum China (YUMC)

Better Bets than Yum China (YUMC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to YUMC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Yum China

Peers to compare with:

Financials

YUMCCMGYUMQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameYum ChinaChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Mkt Price47.2433.93148.5271.95177.326.8859.59
Mkt Cap17.645.341.323.620.70.622.1
Rev LTM11,43411,7878,0619,10612,3643,95310,270
Op Inc LTM1,2671,9962,4852,3481,4691351,733
FCF LTM8341,5731,5641,3541,0681001,211
FCF 3Y Avg8511,4041,4131,2409421111,091
CFO LTM1,4402,2151,9061,5881,7682771,678
CFO 3Y Avg1,5201,9931,7121,4051,5903391,555

Growth & Margins

YUMCCMGYUMQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameYum ChinaChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Rev Chg LTM3.5%7.3%11.6%21.8%8.3%7.7%8.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.9%11.9%6.4%14.2%8.2%-2.9%7.3%
Rev Chg Q4.0%7.5%8.4%15.9%10.4%2.1%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%1.8%1.9%3.8%2.4%0.5%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM11.1%16.9%30.8%25.8%11.9%3.4%14.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%17.0%31.7%28.8%11.8%5.6%14.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.3%-0.0%-0.6%-0.0%-0.5%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM12.6%18.8%23.6%17.4%14.3%7.0%15.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.0%18.6%23.0%18.1%13.8%8.5%16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.3%13.3%19.4%14.9%8.6%2.5%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.8%13.1%18.9%16.0%8.1%2.8%10.6%

Valuation

YUMCCMGYUMQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameYum ChinaChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Mkt Cap17.645.341.323.620.70.622.1
P/S1.54.45.22.32.10.22.2
P/EBIT13.226.216.99.818.29.215.0
P/E18.134.029.224.523.1-10.623.8
P/CFO11.623.622.213.214.42.213.8
Total Yield7.3%2.9%5.3%9.2%6.9%0.1%6.1%
Dividend Yield1.8%0.0%1.8%5.1%2.6%9.6%2.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.0%2.4%3.6%5.8%4.5%9.4%4.7%
D/E0.10.10.30.80.23.60.3
Net D/E0.00.10.20.70.23.50.2

Returns

YUMCCMGYUMQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameYum ChinaChipotle.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
1M Rtn7.9%7.7%7.1%9.4%-0.1%1.8%7.4%
3M Rtn6.9%-18.8%3.2%16.4%-14.2%-1.6%0.8%
6M Rtn11.3%-35.0%4.1%2.5%-16.8%-10.8%-4.2%
12M Rtn2.3%-44.3%9.9%5.4%7.0%-44.1%3.9%
3Y Rtn-10.8%5.7%21.3%19.8%34.5%-62.6%12.7%
1M Excs Rtn8.0%7.7%7.1%9.4%-0.1%1.8%7.4%
3M Excs Rtn0.9%-23.4%-1.5%11.6%-20.3%-9.9%-5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-3.4%-49.7%-10.6%-12.2%-31.5%-25.6%-18.9%
12M Excs Rtn-9.9%-58.4%-4.1%-6.3%-9.9%-61.4%-9.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.2%-61.7%-48.4%-51.9%-39.5%-137.5%-56.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
KFC8,2407,2197,0035,8216,040
Pizza Hut2,2461,9602,1091,7302,054
All Other Segments779671473242158
Corporate and Unallocated293253520528562
Elimination-580-534-252-58-38
Total10,9789,5699,8538,2638,776


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
KFC1,202787827801949
Pizza Hut1427011162114
All Other Segments-31-50-29-7-14
Corporate and Unallocated-207-178   
Unallocated and corporate General and Administrative (G&A) expenses  -171-144-145
Unallocated expenses for transactions with franchisees  -497-531-554
Unallocated other income, net  6422454
Unallocated other operating costs and expenses  -17-30-4
Unallocated other revenues  20324
Unallocated revenues from transactions with franchisees  500533558
Total1,1066291,386961912


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate and Unallocated5,409  5,507 
KFC5,371  4,0843,160
Pizza Hut904  906950
All Other Segments347  378166
Corporate    2,674
Total12,031  10,8756,950


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,466,991
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.0%
Average Daily Volume1,430,198
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.82
Basic Shares Quantity373,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021