XTI Aerospace (XTIA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.575 | Market Cap: $11.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
XTI Aerospace (XTIA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.575Market Cap: $11.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -170% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -173% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -940% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 143% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -42% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1189%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1195% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 16803% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -452% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 14377% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -170% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 143% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -173% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -940% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -42% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1189%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1195% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 16803% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -452% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 14377% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 27% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
XTIA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate -25.4% movement in XTI Aerospace (XTIA) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Weak Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
XTI Aerospace reported its fiscal 2025 Q2 earnings on August 14, 2025, revealing a net loss of $20.86 million, a 41.8% increase year-over-year, despite an improved earnings per share. The company's total revenue sharply declined by 41.8% to $600,000, with aviation segments reporting zero revenue, indicating ongoing financial challenges and contributing to a negative investor sentiment.
2. Proposed Public Offering and Concerns over Cash Burn.
On September 11, 2025, XTI Aerospace announced its intention to conduct a public offering of common stock and warrants. This announcement came at a time when the company was noted to be facing "significant cash burn challenges" and had an overall "WEAK" financial health score, raising concerns among investors about potential dilution and the company's need for capital.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XTIA Return | -79% | -41% | -96% | -91% | -99% | -87% | -100% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XTIA Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 0% | 8% | 8% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XTIA Max Drawdown | -80% | -45% | -96% | -91% | -99% | -100% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XTIA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118292.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -95.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1947.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -100.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.40209526E7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99900.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 649 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW
In The Past
XTI Aerospace's stock fell -99.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -99.9% loss requires a 118292.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can XTI Aerospace Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to XTIA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for XTI Aerospace
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 52 |
| Op Inc LTM | -19 |
| FCF LTM | -23 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -22 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 142.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 56.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -348.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 83.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -188.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -357.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -206.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -388.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.0 |
| P/E | -261.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.8 |
| Total Yield | -224.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8,845.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -25.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 63.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 183.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 53.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 160.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5192025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4152025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5202024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 3312023 | 8142023 | S-4 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 11142023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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