Wolfspeed (WOLF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.22 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Wolfspeed (WOLF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $22.22Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -625 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -82% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -200% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -48% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -625 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -82% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -76%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -200% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -48% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WOLF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Successful Financial Restructuring and Chapter 11 Emergence.
Wolfspeed successfully completed its financial restructuring process and emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 29, 2025. This process significantly reduced the company's total debt by approximately 70% and lowered its annual cash interest expense by roughly 60%. All previously outstanding shares of Wolfspeed common stock were canceled, and new shares representing 3% to 5% of the reorganized company were issued to existing shareholders. This turnaround event provided the company with improved financial stability and a self-funded business plan.
2. Significant IRS Tax Refund.
On December 1, 2025, Wolfspeed received $698.6 million in cash tax refunds from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) through the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit. This substantial cash infusion bolstered the company's liquidity, bringing its cash balance to approximately $1.5 billion. Wolfspeed announced plans to use a portion of these funds to retire outstanding debt, further strengthening its financial position and contributing to a positive stock reaction.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WOLF Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 44% | 35% | -19% | 12% | -16% | 20% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WOLF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 28% | 43% | 35% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WOLF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -11% | -35% | -16% | -27% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LSCC, AMKR, SLAB, IPGP, AMBQ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
WOLF has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1183 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can Wolfspeed Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Wolfspeed (WOLF) Stock: 37% of days in last 3 months had 1% or greater fluctuation | |||
| Wolfspeed Market Price | Market Price | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s Next For Wolfspeed Stock? | September 30th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: WOLF, BQ, YCBD | Losers: MLTX, KALA, IOBT | September 30th, 2025 | ||
| Is The 60% Rise In Wolfspeed Stock Justified? | September 9th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Behind The 75% Jump In Wolfspeed Stock? | July 1st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WOLF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | WOLF | Wolfspeed | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312024 | WOLF | Wolfspeed | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wolfspeed
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 751 |
| Op Inc LTM | -11 |
| FCF LTM | 55 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 109 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 203 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 14.9 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 27.8 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 24.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8262025 | 10-K 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8222024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8232023 | 10-K 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-Q 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8222022 | 10-K 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-Q 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |