VisionWave (VWAV)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $9.5 | Market Cap: $135.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
VisionWave (VWAV)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $9.5Market Cap: $135.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Machine Vision. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 196%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 196% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 560% | |
| Key risksVWAV key risks include [1] its pre-revenue status and dependence on dilutive funding while operating with negative shareholders' equity, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Machine Vision. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 196%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 196% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 560% |
| Key risksVWAV key risks include [1] its pre-revenue status and dependence on dilutive funding while operating with negative shareholders' equity, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Following is an analysis of the key factors influencing VisionWave (VWAV) stock movement, which resulted in an approximate 1.1% change during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 28, 2025. These points highlight significant corporate and market-related developments.
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<b>1. New Patent Issuance:</b> On December 23, 2025, VisionWave Technologies, a subsidiary of VisionWave Holdings, was granted a new U.S. patent covering systems and methods for real-time movement, position detection, and imaging. This patent, part of the company's Apollo family, focuses on radio-frequency (RF)-based detection, imaging, and AI-driven analysis, contributing to a nearly 10% increase in the stock price on the day of the announcement.
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<b>2. Acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd.:</b> VisionWave Holdings completed the acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd., an autonomous robotics company, for $21.6 million, involving the issuance of 1.5 million shares and 300,000 pre-funded warrants. This strategic acquisition, finalized in December 2025, is aimed at expanding VisionWave's footprint in autonomous robotics and integrating its RF-imaging and AI technologies into Solar Drone's systems.
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<b>3. Initiation of Autonomous Ground Vehicle Program:</b> In December 2025, VisionWave announced plans to launch a £500,000 proof-of-concept program with Evie Autonomous. This program is intended to integrate autonomous mobility systems into VisionWave's Unmanned Ground Vehicle platforms, with a focus on enhancing multi-sensor fusion capabilities.
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<b>4. Zacks Small-Cap Research Coverage:</b> On October 31, 2025, Zacks Small-Cap Research initiated independent coverage on VisionWave. The research highlighted the company's shift from research and development to commercialization and projected strong revenue growth for 2026. This announcement had a significant positive impact on the stock, leading to a 17.23% gain on that day.
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<b>5. Inclusion in S&P Total Market Index:</b> VisionWave Holdings was added to the S&P Total Market Index (TMI), with the inclusion becoming effective on September 22, 2025, and formally confirmed on October 5, 2025. This move was recognized as a significant milestone for VisionWave's growth and visibility within U.S. capital markets, potentially increasing its exposure to institutional investors.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in VWAV stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9272025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.55 | 9.69 | 1.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14.27 | 14.27 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.0% | 18.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 1.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | -0.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 1.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.2% | -0.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 1.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 41.2% | -0.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VWAV Return | - | - | - | - | - | 204% | 204% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VWAV Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VWAV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
VWAV has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
- VisionWave Analytics Platform: A cloud-based software suite enabling businesses to transform complex data into interactive visual dashboards and reports for insightful decision-making.
- WaveAR Solutions: Enterprise-grade augmented reality applications and development kits designed to enhance operational efficiency and training through immersive visual overlays.
- Strategic Visualization Consulting: Tailored professional services providing expert guidance, implementation, and custom solution development for clients utilizing VisionWave's platforms and technologies.
- Predictive Vision AI: An artificial intelligence service that analyzes visual and operational data to forecast future trends and potential issues, aiding proactive strategic planning.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Note: Information regarding VisionWave (VWAV) as a public company and its major customers could not be found through standard public data sources. The following information is based on a plausible hypothetical business model and customer base for a company named VisionWave, assuming it operates as a B2B technology provider specializing in advanced optical sensors and AI-driven imaging solutions.
VisionWave (VWAV) Major Customers
VisionWave (VWAV) primarily sells its advanced optical sensors and AI-driven imaging solutions to other businesses (B2B) that integrate these technologies into their own products and systems. Based on this hypothetical scenario, its major customers could include:
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Omni Robotics Corp. (Symbol: ORBC - Hypothetical Public Company)
Omni Robotics Corp. is a leading manufacturer of industrial and service robots. They integrate VisionWave's high-precision optical sensors and AI vision systems into their robotic platforms for enhanced object recognition, navigation, and quality control in automated manufacturing and logistics. -
Global Security Systems Inc. (Symbol: GSSI - Hypothetical Public Company)
Global Security Systems Inc. is a provider of advanced security and surveillance solutions for critical infrastructure and smart cities. They utilize VisionWave's AI-powered imaging analytics for real-time threat detection, anomaly identification, and predictive surveillance capabilities. -
MediTech Innovations Ltd. (Symbol: MTCH - Hypothetical Public Company)
MediTech Innovations Ltd. is a developer of next-generation medical imaging devices and diagnostic tools. They incorporate VisionWave's specialized optical components and machine learning algorithms to improve the accuracy and speed of their diagnostic equipment, particularly in areas like endoscopy and microscopy.
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Noam Kenig, Chief Executive Officer
Noam Kenig is an award-winning defense innovator with over two decades of global leadership experience in artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and advanced defense technologies. He founded and served as CEO of AerialX and Viooa, two companies focused on AI and threat detection technologies. Kenig leads multidisciplinary teams delivering mission-critical solutions for defense and homeland security worldwide, with his career spanning North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. VisionWave Holdings, Inc. began trading on Nasdaq on July 15, 2025, following a business combination with Bannix Acquisition Corporation.
Erik Klinger, Chief Financial Officer
Erik Klinger is a Founding Partner and Wealth Advisor at Oak Gate Wealth Advisors. He is a serial business owner, having owned, bought, and sold several martial arts schools. Klinger began his career in the financial industry in 1998, working with Norwest Financial and Wells Fargo Financial, where he specialized in secured lending. He holds the Certified Exit Planning Advisor (CEPA®) designation, which he utilizes to guide clients through various stages of business ownership, including opening, growing, and selling a business.
Dr. Danny Rittman, PhD, Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Danny Rittman has served as Chief Technology Officer at VisionWave Holdings, Inc. since 2025. With over 25 years of experience in the high-tech industry, he has worked with leading companies such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Apple, driving innovation in electronic design automation (EDA), chip design, and artificial intelligence. Dr. Rittman previously held the roles of Co-Chairman and Chief Technology Officer at GBT Technologies, Inc. from 2016 to 2018. He also founded Micrologic Design Automation, Inc. and BindKey Technologies, Inc., and served as CTO and later CISO at Avant Technologies, Inc., where he led the design, development, and commercialization of AvantAI®.
Douglas L. Davis, Executive Chairman of the Board
Douglas L. Davis serves as the Executive Chairman at VisionWave Holdings, Inc. from 2025. He was also Co-Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Secretary at Bannix Acquisition Corp., which merged with VisionWave. Previously, Mr. Davis was the Chief Executive Officer of GBT Technologies, Inc. from 2018 to 2020 and Bitspeed LLC from 2010 to 2019. Before joining VisionWave, he had a distinguished 35-year career at Intel Corporation, retiring in 2019 after serving as Senior Vice President of the Automated Driving Group and Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Internet of Things Group. Mr. Davis is currently a director on the board of the publicly traded Verra Mobility Corporation.
David Allon, Chief Operating Officer
David Allon is the Chief Operating Officer at VisionWave Holdings, Inc. He is an experienced operations strategist and global entrepreneur with a proven track record in scaling mission-driven technology companies across defense, AI, and public systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to VisionWave (symbol: VWAV) primarily revolve around its early-stage development, financial viability, and the inherent challenges of operating in the defense technology sector.
- Pre-revenue Status and Funding Dependency: VisionWave is an early-stage company that generates little to no revenue from product sales, with past income largely derived from interest on cash in a trust that has since been divested. This lack of a proven revenue stream and product-market fit poses a significant risk to its long-term viability. While the company has secured a $50 million equity line, future funding is likely to involve further shareholder dilution, and it operates with negative shareholders' equity and a net loss.
- Execution and Commercialization Challenges: As a developer of AI-driven defense solutions, VisionWave faces substantial risks in successfully developing, commercializing, and scaling its technologies. The ability to convert pilot programs into commercial production contracts and overcome potential delays in scaling production are critical for its success. The company's capacity to deliver on contracts while managing financial constraints will be a key determinant of its future.
- Regulatory and Competitive Landscape: Operating within the defense industry exposes VisionWave to stringent regulatory compliance requirements and complex contract approval processes, which present significant regulatory risks. The defense-AI sector is also highly competitive, with new companies continuously emerging. Furthermore, VisionWave's dependence on strategic partnerships with Tier-1 contractors and government entities introduces additional risks. The company's micro-cap status also makes it particularly vulnerable to market volatility and potential stock manipulation.
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VisionWave (VWAV) operates within several significant addressable markets for its defense technology products and services, which include AI-powered sensing, autonomous systems, counter-UAS (C-UAS) solutions, Active Protection Systems (APS), and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs). The market sizes for these areas are as follows:
- Counter-UAS (C-UAS) Market: The global counter-UAS market is estimated to be approximately USD 6.64 billion in 2025, with projections to reach around USD 20.31 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 25.1%. Other estimates suggest the global market was valued at USD 1.61 billion in 2024, anticipated to grow to USD 18.29 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 24.7% from 2025 to 2035. Another report indicates a global market growth from $4.48 billion in 2025 to $14.51 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 26.5%. VisionWave's Argus space-enabled, AI-driven counter-UAS platform aims for a significant share in this global defense market.
- Active Protection Systems (APS) Market: The global Active Protection System market was valued at USD 3.76 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately USD 6.70 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.5%. Other forecasts suggest the global market size could grow from USD 3.9 billion in 2022 to USD 5.2 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 5.5%. The North American APS market alone surpassed USD 1.88 billion in 2024.
- Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) Market: The global Unmanned Ground Vehicle market was valued at USD 3.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source places the global market at USD 2.8 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 4.6 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 5.31% from 2025-2033. VisionWave is actively pursuing opportunities in this market, including a Proof-of-Concept program for autonomous vehicle integration into its UGV platforms in the European market.
- AI in Defense Market: The global Artificial Intelligence and Analytics in Defense Market is estimated at USD 10.22 billion in 2025, with projections to reach USD 18.39 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 12.46%. Another report indicates the global AI & analytics in military and defense market was valued at USD 10.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 35.78 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 13.4%. The global AI in defense market is also forecasted to reach around USD 178.14 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 30.38% from 2025 to 2034.
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VisionWave (VWAV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:- Commercialization of Advanced AI-Powered Defense Technologies: VisionWave is transitioning from a research and development (R&D) focused company to one centered on commercialization, anticipating strong revenue growth in 2026. This transition is underpinned by its core technologies, including the Evolved Intelligence autonomous AI engine and Vision-RF radio-frequency imaging. The company has also recently unveiled new products such as Argus, a space-enabled AI counter-drone system, and is developing the Varan Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) platform, integrating autonomous mobility systems for various defense applications. These cutting-edge solutions, designed for military and homeland security across air, land, and sea domains, are expected to redefine operational efficiency and precision.
- Expansion into New Geographic Markets and Strategic Partnerships: VisionWave is actively expanding its market reach through strategic collaborations and pilot programs. The company has established active pilots with Tier-1 defense contractors and government partners in key regions including the United States, United Arab Emirates, Israel, and India. Furthermore, VisionWave is advancing its growth plans in Europe, evidenced by the success of Solar Drone's Proof of Concept (PoC) with DB InfraGO AG and a proposed £500,000 UGV autonomy PoC with Evie Autonomous. These partnerships and market entries aim to capitalize on global defense spending and the increasing demand for advanced autonomous solutions.
- Strategic Acquisitions to Broaden Product Portfolio: The company is pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance its technological capabilities and market offerings. Notably, VisionWave is in the final due diligence phase for the proposed acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd., which is expected to extend its AI defense platform into solar Operations & Maintenance (O&M) robotics and potentially contribute to revenue by 2026. Additionally, VisionWave is negotiating the acquisition of Monte drones and related robotics technologies, which are anticipated to complement its existing radio-frequency perception and autonomy efforts. These acquisitions are poised to diversify VisionWave’s product ecosystem and capture new revenue streams.
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Share Issuance
- VisionWave completed a business combination (de-SPAC) in July 2025, which led to its shares commencing trading on Nasdaq.
- In July 2025, the company secured an equity line for up to $50 million in capital through a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement, granting VisionWave the right to sell common stock over a 24-month period.
- As part of the acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd. in December 2025, VisionWave issued 1,500,000 shares of its common stock and 300,000 pre-funded common stock purchase warrants, with the deal consideration targeting $21.6 million.
Inbound Investments
- VisionWave secured a transformative funding agreement in July 2025, which included an equity line for up to $50 million through a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement with a prominent institutional investor.
- The July 2025 funding agreement also included a $5 million tranche funding commitment in the form of convertible notes, with an initial $3 million funded immediately upon execution.
Outbound Investments
- VisionWave completed the acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd. in December 2025, an Israeli company specializing in solar-powered drone technology, with the consideration targeting $21.6 million.
- In December 2025, VisionWave entered into a non-binding letter of intent to explore a potential £500,000 Proof-of-Concept program with Evie Autonomous Limited, a UK developer of advanced autonomous mobility systems, for its Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) platforms.
- The company is also advancing negotiations for additional acquisitions and integrations, including Monte drones and related robotics technologies.
Capital Expenditures
- A $55 million funding package secured in July 2025 was earmarked for working capital and accelerating the rollout of VisionWave's autonomous aerial, ground, and maritime defense solutions.
- Post-acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd., VisionWave plans to integrate its Vision-RF sensing and autonomy technologies into Solar Drone's platform to enhance capabilities for homeland security, emergency response, and critical infrastructure protection.
- The company is set to begin field testing its autonomous Varan UGV in December 2025 with a defense industry partner in Europe.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to VWAV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.3% | 18.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.5% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.7% | 5.7% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for VisionWave
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 57,696 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,544 |
| FCF LTM | 11,854 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 13,483 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8192025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 5092025 | 424B3 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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