VisionWave (VWAV)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $6.95 | Market Cap: $105.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
VisionWave (VWAV)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $6.95Market Cap: $105.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Machine Vision. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.2 Mil | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 455% | |
| Key risksVWAV key risks include [1] its pre-revenue status and dependence on dilutive funding while operating with negative shareholders' equity, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies. Themes include Machine Vision. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.2 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 455% |
| Key risksVWAV key risks include [1] its pre-revenue status and dependence on dilutive funding while operating with negative shareholders' equity, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Persistent Unprofitability and Weak Financial Health: VisionWave reported negative earnings, with -$6.9 million in Q4 2025 and -$12.9 million for the trailing 12 months ending December 31, 2025. The company's EPS was -$0.46 in Q4 2025 and also -$0.46 for the quarter ending February 17, 2026. Its financial health is classified as "WEAK," with a loss of $1.04 per share over the last twelve months and a concerning current ratio of 0.26, indicating short-term obligations exceed liquid assets. VisionWave's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -518.5%.
2. Significant Insider Selling Activity: A notable insider, Stanley Hills LLC, sold 603,334 shares of VisionWave common stock between November 11, 2025, and January 15, 2026. These transactions generated approximately $8,275,176 in proceeds, exceeding the $5 million threshold and potentially signaling a lack of confidence from a significant holder.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.5% change in VWAV stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.65 | 6.51 | -32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14 | 15 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | -32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 16.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 10.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.0% change in VWAV stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.58 | 6.51 | -32.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14 | 15 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | -32.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 21.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 14.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 3.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 0.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VWAV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 3.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 0.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VWAV Return | - | - | - | - | 183% | -29% | 101% |
| Peers Return | 0% | -13% | 82% | 28% | 88% | -14% | 231% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VWAV Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 71% | 50% | 62% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VWAV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -30% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -36% | -1% | -7% | -25% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATRO, FLY, DFNS, YSS, GE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
VWAV has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ATRO, FLY, DFNS, YSS, GE
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About VisionWave (VWAV)
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Douglas Davis, Interim CEO and Executive Chairman
Douglas Davis was appointed Interim CEO and Executive Chairman of VisionWave in December 2025. He has over 35 years of experience in technology and finance, having served as CEO for both public and private companies. Notably, he was the Chairman and CEO of Bannix Acquisition Corp (BNIX), a SPAC that facilitated VisionWave Holdings, Inc.'s listing on the NASDAQ Global Market through a de-SPAC and business combination. He is recognized as an expert in international business development, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), information technology (IT), artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and supply chain. Mr. Davis holds an AB from Stanford and an MBA from UCLA.
Erik Klinger, Chief Financial Officer
Erik Klinger serves as the Chief Financial Officer for VisionWave. He is characterized as a growth-focused executive with significant experience in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and public company operations. Previously, he held the positions of CEO at CIMfinity and CFO at Gopher Protocol, where he demonstrated a strong track record in scaling technology ventures. He holds degrees from Dartmouth and an MBA from UCLA.
David Allon, Chief Operating Officer
David Allon was appointed Chief Operating Officer effective September 2, 2025.
Danny Rittman, Chief Technology Officer
Danny Rittman is the Chief Technology Officer. He is an experienced inventor with extensive expertise in artificial intelligence, chip design, and software engineering.
Elad Shoval, Chief Revenue Officer
Elad Shoval assumed the role of Chief Revenue Officer effective September 2, 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
VisionWave (symbol: VWAV) faces several key risks as an early-stage defense technology company focused on AI and autonomous solutions.
- Lack of Revenue and Profitability: VisionWave is currently a pre-revenue company with ongoing operating losses, indicating it has yet to prove product-market fit or demonstrate the market viability of its offerings. This fundamental challenge raises questions about its long-term viability and its ability to achieve sustainable financial performance.
- Dependence on Future Funding and Potential Shareholder Dilution: Given its lack of revenue and continued losses, VisionWave relies on external funding to finance its operations and development. While the company has secured some financing, future capital needs will likely necessitate further equity raises, which could lead to dilution for existing shareholders.
- Negative Insider Sentiment and Stock Volatility: The company's stock has experienced volatility. Notably, there has been significant open-market selling by key executives over the past three months, with no corresponding insider buying activity. This negative insider sentiment can signal a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects by those with the most intimate knowledge of the business.
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VisionWave (symbol: VWAV) operates in several key addressable markets globally, primarily within the defense technology, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and advanced sensing sectors. The company's main products and services encompass AI-driven autonomous solutions, advanced radio-frequency (RF) sensing and imaging, high-resolution radar, and computational acceleration technologies for national security, defense, and critical infrastructure applications.
The estimated addressable market sizes for VisionWave's core product and service areas are as follows:
- AI in Military/Defense Market: The global artificial intelligence in military market was valued at approximately USD 18.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 101.02 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.7% from 2026 to 2034. Another projection indicates the global AI in defense market was valued at around USD 9.13 billion in 2025 and is expected to exceed USD 29 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of about 12.5%.
- Defense Autonomous Systems Market: The global defense autonomous vehicle market size was valued at USD 9.789 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 26.9% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 43.72 billion by 2030. Separately, the autonomous military weapons and defense systems market was estimated at USD 12.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 36.5 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of roughly 13.2%. The broader global defense robotics market is expected to cross USD 38.12 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.69% from 2023 to 2033.
- Military Radar Market: The global military radar market was valued at USD 14.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 25.1 billion by 2034, driven by a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates indicate the market was valued at USD 17.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 24.1 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 3.48% from 2026-2034.
- Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (C-UAS) Market: The global counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) market size was valued at USD 8.40 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow from USD 10.63 billion in 2026 to USD 69.67 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 26.50% during the forecast period. The total addressable market for CUxS technologies was estimated at USD 63 billion in 2025.
- Military Sensors Market (including RF sensing): The global military sensors market size is calculated at USD 11.03 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit approximately USD 19.27 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 6.40% from 2025 to 2034. Another source projects a market size of USD 21.10 billion in 2032 from USD 13.12 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.12% during 2025-2032.
- Military & Defense Semiconductor Market (relevant to computational acceleration and AI infrastructure): The global military & defense semiconductor market was valued at USD 12.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow from USD 14.1 billion in 2026 to USD 36.6 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 11.2%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
VisionWave (VWAV) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by its strategic focus on advanced defense technology, AI-driven autonomous systems, and expanding market reach. Key drivers include:
- Commercialization of Advanced AI and RF Sensing Technologies: VisionWave is transitioning from research and development to commercialization, with strong revenue growth anticipated to begin in 2026. The company is actively focusing on deploying its proprietary Evolved Intelligence autonomous AI engine and Vision-RF radio-frequency imaging technologies, targeting the rapidly expanding defense AI market, which is projected to grow by $23 billion from 2024-2028.
- Expansion into New Geographical and Commercial Markets: The company is actively expanding its operational footprint globally. Recent efforts include significant European expansion, particularly in Italy and Spain through its subsidiary Solar Drone Ltd., where it targets energy and infrastructure markets with drone-enabled services such as high-voltage insulator cleaning and power grid maintenance. Furthermore, VisionWave has active pilot programs with government partners in key regions including the United States, United Arab Emirates, Israel, and India, and is evaluating defense manufacturing partnerships in India.
- Launch and Integration of Recently Acquired and Developed Products/Platforms: VisionWave's strategic acquisitions and internal developments are expected to fuel revenue. The acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd. in December 2025 provides autonomous aerial platforms with a universal Adaptation Kit and heavy-lift capabilities for industrial applications. Additionally, the acquisition of the QuantumSpeed™ computational acceleration engine in January 2026 is intended to enhance AI processing for products like the WaveStrike™ RF-enabled fire-control workflows and the ARGUS counter-UAS systems, enabling faster decision-making in defense scenarios.
- Securing Defense Contracts with Governments and Allied Agencies: As a defense technology company, a primary driver of revenue growth will be securing significant contracts. VisionWave is actively pursuing defense contracts with U.S. agencies and allied governments. The company's integrated technology platform, combining autonomous systems, RF sensing, and AI infrastructure, positions it to address the growing global demand for advanced defense modernization and critical infrastructure protection solutions.
- Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: VisionWave's business model incorporates revenue generation through strategic alliances and joint ventures. The company is expanding its strategic technology partnerships and has engaged in active pilots with Tier-1 defense contractors. An agreement with a major creditor of C.M. Composite Materials to advance a planned acquisition also points to potential for expanded manufacturing capabilities and participation in global defense supply chains, further diversifying its revenue streams.
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Share Issuance
- VisionWave Holdings, Inc. filed a prospectus supplement to register up to 10,200,000 shares of Common Stock for resale by a selling stockholder, to be issued under a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement.
- The company issued 250,000 shares, valued at $2,500,000, to acquire a 51% controlling interest in C.M. Composite Materials Ltd. on February 20, 2026.
- VisionWave issued common stock valued at approximately $2.74 million in exchange for an initial 19.99% ownership stake in SaverOne 2014 Ltd. under an Exchange Agreement dated January 26, 2026.
Inbound Investments
- VisionWave secured $20 million in senior loan financing with a 12-month maturity, a 0% interest rate (rising to 18% upon default), and a 15% original issue discount.
- The company has a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement with YA II PN, Ltd., which involves potential advances based on VWAP pricing.
Outbound Investments
- On February 20, 2026, VisionWave agreed to acquire a 51% controlling interest in C.M. Composite Materials Ltd. and committed to providing a secured loan facility of up to $5,000,000, with an initial advance of up to $1,500,000.
- VisionWave acquired an initial 19.99% ownership position in SaverOne 2014 Ltd. on March 5, 2026, as part of a strategic collaboration.
- Following the initial transaction, VisionWave increased its beneficial ownership in SaverOne Ltd. to approximately 21% through open-market purchases of American Depositary Shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the last 12 months totaled approximately -$50,381.
- The primary focus of future capital expenditures is expected to include the full platform launch for autonomous missions and the deployment of a full operational AI infrastructure platform, both targeted by the end of 2027.
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 160 |
| Op Inc LTM | -7 |
| FCF LTM | 19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11 |
| CFO LTM | 35 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 27 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/EBIT | 7.7 |
| P/E | 10.8 |
| P/CFO | 30.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -33.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanley, Hills Llc | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 13.05 | 13,727 | 179,137 | 52,561,107 | Form | |
| 2 | Stanley, Hills Llc | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 11.88 | 21,500 | 255,420 | 47,593,311 | Form | |
| 3 | Stanley, Hills Llc | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 12.11 | 19,000 | 230,090 | 48,284,641 | Form | |
| 4 | Stanley, Hills Llc | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 11.27 | 6,000 | 67,620 | 44,867,797 | Form | |
| 5 | Stanley, Hills Llc | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 11.18 | 8,000 | 89,440 | 44,420,052 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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