York Space Systems (YSS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $21.77 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
York Space Systems (YSS)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $21.77Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Satellite Manufacturing, and Earth Observation & Remote Sensing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Key risksYSS key risks include [1] heavy reliance on U.S. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Satellite Manufacturing, and Earth Observation & Remote Sensing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Key risksYSS key risks include [1] heavy reliance on U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. "Broken IPO" Status and Initial Volatility: York Space Systems' stock performance immediately after its January 29, 2026, IPO contributed significantly to its decline. The shares were priced at $34.00, but closed below their offering price at $33.61 on the first trading day. By early February 2026, the stock had tumbled nearly 14%, leading to its characterization as a "broken IPO" and signaling weak initial investor confidence.
2. Disappointing 2026 Revenue Guidance: Following its Q4 2025 earnings report, York Space Systems provided full-year 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $545 million to $595 million. This projection fell significantly short of some analysts' consensus estimates, which were approximately $876 million, consequently triggering selling pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YSS | ||
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YSS | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YSS | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YSS | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 19.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YSS Return | - | - | - | - | - | -37% | -37% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 20% | 2% | 4% | 30% | 13% | 112% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YSS Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 57% | 43% | 57% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YSS Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -11% | -19% | -14% | -11% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, RTX, BA, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
YSS has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LMT, NOC, RTX, BA, LHX
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About York Space Systems (YSS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for York Space Systems (YSS):
- Dell for national security satellites: York Space Systems rapidly produces modular, cost-effective satellites and integrated solutions, similar to how Dell built a business on configurable, affordable computers.
- AWS for defense in space: York Space Systems offers a vertically integrated, full-stack solution—from spacecraft hardware to software and ground operations—for mission-critical space infrastructure, much like Amazon Web Services provides comprehensive cloud computing services.
- SpaceX for national security satellites: York Space Systems is disrupting traditional defense primes with innovative, faster, and more cost-efficient satellite production and operations, similar to how SpaceX transformed the launch industry and is now a key defense partner.
AI Analysis | Feedback
York Space Systems (YSS) Major Products and Services
**Products:**- S-CLASS Spacecraft: A high-quality, low-cost satellite platform for a wide array of space market needs.
- LX-CLASS Spacecraft: A specialized satellite platform leveraging the S-CLASS design with enhanced capabilities.
- M-CLASS Spacecraft: A large-scale satellite platform utilizing previous satellite designs, greatly enhancing scale and power for heavier spacecraft.
- Proprietary Satellite Software: A suite of software solutions, including flight control and edge computing, enabling versatile payload integration and autonomous operations.
- Multi-Mission Operations Center (M-MOC): A secure, autonomous command structure designed to manage multiple York spacecraft.
- Bastion Ground Software: A mission-ready ground software solution that allows operators to manage entire satellite fleets from a single ground architecture.
- Spacecraft Design, Production, and Integration: Comprehensive services encompassing the design, manufacturing, and integration of spacecraft.
- Mission Operations and Lifecycle Management: Continuous operational support and full lifecycle management of spacecraft and constellations, including on-spacecraft upgrades.
- Ground Station Network Access: Provides access to a global network of over 45 ground antennas for satellite command, control, and data transfer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
York Space Systems (YSS) primarily sells its mission-critical solutions to government and national security entities. Its major customers include:
- U.S. Department of Defense (DoD): York is explicitly stated as the number one provider to the DoD's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) and deals directly with the Department of Defense.
- The space intelligence community: Mentioned as a key customer segment supporting growth.
- Other National Security and Government Customers: York provides solutions for the United States' national security priorities (e.g., missile defense, counter-space capabilities, space domain awareness), including specific initiatives like the "Golden Dome."
- Commercial Customers: The company also serves commercial customers, though no specific company names are provided in the background information, and the primary focus is on national security and government contracts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Dirk Wallinger, Chief Executive Officer
Dirk Wallinger is the Founder, President, and CEO of York Space Systems, which he established in 2012 with the goal of revolutionizing spacecraft affordability and deployment speed to transform space architectures and position the U.S. as a leader in the space economy. Prior to founding York, Wallinger served as a principal engineer on various space vehicles, including GeoEye-1, ORS-1, the Fermi Gamma-ray Observatory, and the Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) satellite, along with numerous classified programs.
Kevin A. Messerle, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin A. Messerle serves as the Chief Financial Officer for York Space Systems. He joined Summit Partners in 2015, where he was a member of Summit Partners Credit Advisors, and led origination activities in energy, transportation, and automotive sectors. His extensive experience in leveraged finance also includes previous roles at Regiment Capital, where he managed credit investments, and Davidson Kempner Capital Management, where he worked as a senior distressed debt analyst. He holds a BS in mechanical engineering from Pennsylvania State University and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.
Melanie Preisser, Chief Legal & Administrative Officer
Melanie Preisser is the Chief Legal & Administrative Officer for York Space Systems.
Michael Swink, CTO / Flight Software Lead
Michael Swink holds the position of CTO / Flight Software Lead at York Space Systems.
Devjyoti Rudra, Chief Supply Chain Officer
Devjyoti Rudra is the Chief Supply Chain Officer at York Space Systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Business Risks for York Space Systems (YSS)
- High Dependence on U.S. Government Contracts and Programs: A significant portion of York Space Systems' business relies on contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and participation in key programs like the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) and Golden Dome. Any changes in government spending priorities, budget allocations, program delays, or the inability to secure future government contracts could materially and adversely affect the company's revenue, backlog, and growth prospects.
- Maintaining Competitive Advantages in Price, Speed, and Technology: York Space Systems differentiates itself by offering satellites at approximately half the cost of competitors, with faster deployment, and sophisticated proprietary hardware and software. The space and defense industry is highly competitive, with established primes and emerging players. Failure to sustain these cost efficiencies, speed of delivery, or technological superiority, or if competitors introduce equally or more effective solutions, could erode York's market position, profitability, and ability to secure future contracts.
- Risk of Rapid Technological Evolution and Obsolescence: The space technology landscape is dynamic, with continuous advancements in satellite design, manufacturing, and operational capabilities. While York Space Systems emphasizes its proprietary, modular platforms and software, there is an inherent risk that new technologies, architectures, or capabilities developed by competitors could render York's current offerings less competitive or potentially obsolete if the company fails to innovate and adapt quickly.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for York Space Systems' main products and services, which include spacecraft and related solutions for the space ecosystem, is the global satellite market. This market was approximately $280 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow by approximately $320 billion to over $600 billion from 2023 to 2032, at an approximate 8% Compound Annual Growth Rate ("CAGR").
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for York Space Systems (YSS) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased demand from the U.S. Department of Defense's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) and national security initiatives: York Space Systems is the number one provider to the U.S. DoD’s PWSA by number of spacecraft operating in-orbit, contracts, and variety of contract types as of September 2025. The company is purpose-built to address evolving national security space challenges and is positioned to capture an outsized share of growth in its core markets, supported by the Golden Dome, the space intelligence community, and the DoD’s PWSA program. This ongoing investment in defense spending and the need for rapidly deployable satellites for missile defense, counter-space capabilities, and space domain awareness will drive significant revenue growth.
- Expansion of recurring revenue through continuous operational support, software, and services: York's full lifecycle solution includes continuous operational support, downlink antenna usage, and proprietary software solutions, including on-spacecraft upgrades during the full orbital lifespan. The company expects recurring revenue to increase as the installed base of spacecraft in orbit grows, creating a highly visible revenue model, accelerating growth, and increasing margins. The expected replacement cycle for current space vehicles is approximately five to six years, positioning York to act as a prime for the replacement and potential expansion of aging constellations, including those of competitors.
- Growth of recently acquired capabilities and integrated offerings: York's 2023 acquisition of Emergent Space Technologies bolstered its software capabilities, including flight control and edge computing. More recently, the ATLAS Space Operations acquisition added more than 45 ground antennas. These integrations enhance York's vertically integrated, full technology stack of solutions, allowing it to monetize the entire space vertical from launch to mission operations, spacecraft to payloads, and edge computing to data transfer, thereby driving revenue growth through comprehensive offerings.
- Scalable and cost-effective spacecraft platforms driving increased volume: York’s three different platforms (S-CLASS, LX-CLASS, and M-CLASS) share approximately 75% of the same hardware and 95% of the software, leading to significant cost reductions throughout the value chain. This modular and common architecture allows for scalable solutions at lower cost, enabling York to produce satellites at approximately half the cost of competitors. With quadrupled production capability to manufacture and test over 1,000 satellites annually, York is poised to meet high-volume demand faster and more affordably, capturing an increasing share of the growing global satellite market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Outbound Investments
- York acquired Emergent Space Technologies in 2023 to bolster its software capabilities, including flight control and edge computing.
- York acquired ATLAS Space Operations, which added more than 45 ground antennas to its capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- In August 2023, York opened its 60,000 square foot Potomac facility, quadrupling production capability to meet demand for manufacturing and testing over 1,000 satellites annually.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to YSS.
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| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 266.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.2 |
| Rev LTM | 75,048 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,280 |
| FCF LTM | 3,307 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,676 |
| CFO LTM | 4,757 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,340 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.2 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 24.1 |
| P/E | 37.9 |
| P/CFO | 20.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 27.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/19/2026 | 19.2% | 19.9% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 19.2% | 19.9% | |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 19.2% | 19.9% | |
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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