Tearsheet

Firefly Aerospace (FLY)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $20.13 | Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Firefly Aerospace (FLY)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $20.13
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -211 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -209%
1  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -164%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -198%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -211 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -209%
2 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -164%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -198%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FLY Return------ 
Peers Return-19%1%2%17%-7%58%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FLY Win Rate-----0% 
Peers Win Rate27%20%20%22%12%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FLY Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-6%-8%-4%-8%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HII, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

FLY has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1463 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Firefly Aerospace (FLY)

Better Bets than Firefly Aerospace (FLY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Firefly Aerospace

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FLYHIIATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameFirefly .Huntingt.AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price20.22315.8850.88-29.843.8129.84
Mkt Cap-12.41.8---7.1
Rev LTM10111,569831--4466
Op Inc LTM-21146950---921
FCF LTM-19966751---921
FCF 3Y Avg-4568---118
CFO LTM-1651,03274---932
CFO 3Y Avg-79122---1022

Growth & Margins

FLYHIIATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameFirefly .Huntingt.AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM--1.7%6.2%--166.4%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.2%19.5%--94.3%19.5%
Rev Chg Q-3.5%3.8%--330.2%3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.9%0.9%--35.8%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-209.3%4.1%6.0%---209.1%-102.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.1%2.2%---699.5%2.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.2%1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-164.1%8.9%8.9%---212.3%-77.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-6.9%2.5%---716.7%2.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-197.5%5.8%6.1%---216.3%-95.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.0%0.8%---777.8%0.8%

Valuation

FLYHIIATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameFirefly .Huntingt.AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap-12.41.8---7.1
P/S-1.01.9---1.5
P/EBIT-15.732.3---24.0
P/E-21.6-523.2----250.8
P/CFO-11.022.0---16.5
Total Yield-6.0%-0.2%---2.9%
Dividend Yield-1.4%0.0%---0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.5%-0.5%---2.0%
D/E-0.30.2---0.2
Net D/E-0.20.2---0.2

Returns

FLYHIIATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameFirefly .Huntingt.AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-11.5%0.4%6.0%--17.1%18.7%0.4%
3M Rtn-52.8%17.5%30.3%--27.4%22.5%
6M Rtn-41.8%57.5%---49.7%
12M Rtn-67.6%207.4%---137.5%
3Y Rtn-43.2%465.3%---254.3%
1M Excs Rtn-12.8%-0.8%4.8%--18.4%17.4%-0.8%
3M Excs Rtn-58.4%11.2%25.7%--20.8%16.0%
6M Excs Rtn-26.4%42.0%---34.2%
12M Excs Rtn-52.5%193.7%---123.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--25.1%464.3%---219.6%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,643,769
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.2%
Average Daily Volume2,550,045
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.04
Basic Shares Quantity140,551,481
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025922202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120248082025424B4 12/31/2024

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Konert Kirk Michael 8082025Buy45.003,333149,985149,985Form
1Lusczakoski Jonathan Donald 8082025Buy45.0026611,97011,970Form
2Braden Pamela Joyce 8082025Buy45.008,888399,9601,091,340Form
3Zurbuchen Thomas Hansueli 8082025Buy45.0080036,00036,000Form
4AEROEQUITY GP, LLC 8082025Buy45.0011,111499,995499,995Form