Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.23 | Market Cap: $586.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.23Market Cap: $586.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 273%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 265% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 119% | ||
| Key risksVTYX key risks include [1] potential clinical trial failure for its key drug candidates VTX3232 and VTX2735, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 273%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 265% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 119% |
| Key risksVTYX key risks include [1] potential clinical trial failure for its key drug candidates VTX3232 and VTX2735, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VTYX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Positive Clinical Data for VTX2735 in CAPS.
Ventyx Biosciences announced positive topline results in March 2024 from a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of VTX2735, a peripheral NLRP3 inhibitor, in patients with cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes (CAPS). The data demonstrated therapeutic benefit and a favorable safety profile, supporting VTX2735's potential for development in other chronic peripheral inflammatory diseases, including recurrent pericarditis.
2. Advancement and Key Milestones in NLRP3 Inhibitor Programs.
The company made significant progress in its NLRP3 inhibitor pipeline, with VTX3232 (CNS-penetrant) and VTX2735 (peripheral). In Q3 2024, Ventyx initiated a Phase 2a trial of VTX3232 in early Parkinson's disease, with topline results expected in the first half of 2025. Additionally, Phase 2 trials for VTX3232 in obesity/cardiometabolic risk factors and VTX2735 in recurrent pericarditis were anticipated to begin by year-end 2024, with topline results for both expected in the second half of 2025. Furthermore, Ventyx achieved two key milestones in 2025 by generating data from the Phase 2a study with VTX3232 in Parkinson's disease and more recently, data from another VTX3232 Phase 2 study.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VTYX Return | � | � | 65% | -92% | -11% | 281% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 17% | -22% | 4% | 22% | 111% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VTYX Win Rate | � | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 48% | 52% | 47% | 53% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VTYX Max Drawdown | � | � | -50% | -94% | -30% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -26% | -50% | -38% | -17% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMY, ROIV, GOSS, KYMR, LLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VTYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2142.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Ventyx Biosciences's stock fell -95.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/3/2023. A -95.5% loss requires a 2142.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VTYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ventyx Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.8 |
| Rev LTM | 44 |
| Op Inc LTM | -135 |
| FCF LTM | -123 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -146 |
| CFO LTM | -123 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -124 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -45.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -348.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -218.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -359.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -155.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -359.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -177.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.8 |
| P/S | 13.6 |
| P/EBIT | -1.9 |
| P/E | -3.0 |
| P/CFO | -3.2 |
| Total Yield | -4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 49.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 94.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 92.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 114.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 41.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 80.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 84.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 58.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.3% | 3.1% | -8.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 19.1% | 27.1% | 0.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 6.0% | 3.4% | 118.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 9.0% | 6.9% | -16.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.8% | -12.1% | 34.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 4.5% | -3.0% | 10.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | -8.7% | 11.2% | -23.2% |
| 2/27/2024 | 28.4% | 41.5% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 14.7% | 34.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -12.1% | -15.3% |
| Max Positive | 32.0% | 41.5% | 118.8% |
| Max Negative | -80.6% | -83.1% | -84.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |