Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.0 | Market Cap: $570.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $8.0Market Cap: $570.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 208% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 256%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 208% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 122% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VTYX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) experienced a significant increase in its value, with a reported rise of approximately 226-261% over the last year leading up to December 2025. This substantial movement can be attributed to several key positive developments related to the company's clinical pipeline and financial standing.
1. Positive Phase 2a Study Results for VTX3232 in Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease. Ventyx Biosciences announced positive top-line results on June 17, 2025, from its Phase 2a study of VTX3232, a novel CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor, in patients with early-stage Parkinson's disease. The study successfully met its primary objective by demonstrating safety and tolerability, with no drug-related adverse events. Furthermore, VTX3232 showed high drug exposure in both plasma and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), along with significant reductions in NLRP3-related biomarkers in these fluids, suggesting potent target engagement and potential therapeutic efficacy.
2. Positive Topline Results from Phase 2 Study of VTX3232 in Obesity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors. On October 22, 2025, Ventyx Biosciences reported positive top-line results from its Phase 2 study evaluating VTX3232 in individuals with obesity and cardiovascular risk factors. The study demonstrated significant reductions in inflammatory markers, including hsCRP and IL-6, within the first week of dosing, which were maintained throughout the 12-week study period. This announcement led to a considerable surge in VTYX's stock price, with an approximate 90% increase pre-market on the day of the news.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VTYX Return | - | - | 65% | -92% | -11% | 265% | -60% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 3% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VTYX Win Rate | - | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VTYX Max Drawdown | - | - | -50% | -94% | -30% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VTYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2142.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Ventyx Biosciences's stock fell -95.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/3/2023. A -95.5% loss requires a 2142.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VTYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ventyx Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.7 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -350.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -302.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -304.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.7 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.3 |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | -22.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -24.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 129.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 103.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 113.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 94.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -86.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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