Tenable (TENB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.91 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Tenable (TENB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.91Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 334x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Network Security, and Cloud Security. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Network Security, and Cloud Security. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 334x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TENB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance: Despite reporting strong third-quarter 2025 results that exceeded expectations and an increase in full-year guidance, Tenable provided a weaker outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting only 6.5% revenue growth at the midpoint. This conservative short-term forecast likely dampened investor sentiment regarding the company's immediate growth trajectory.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, several financial analysts revised down their price targets for Tenable's stock. For example, Scotiabank lowered its target from $37.00 to $31.00, and Needham reduced its target from $42.00 to $38.00. These downward revisions from analysts can often signal a cooling of expectations and contribute to a stock's decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TENB Return | 118% | 5% | -31% | 21% | -15% | -33% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TENB Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TENB Max Drawdown | -30% | -31% | -47% | -9% | -16% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW. See TENB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TENB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 607 days | 120 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Tenable's stock fell -53.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/13/2022. A -53.3% loss requires a 114.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TENB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tenable
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,236 |
| Op Inc LTM | -26 |
| FCF LTM | 279 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 225 |
| CFO LTM | 300 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 238 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -4.5 |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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