Verrica Pharmaceuticals (VRCA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.81 | Market Cap: $74.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Verrica Pharmaceuticals (VRCA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.81Market Cap: $74.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -131%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -263% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 467% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -322%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -322% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -971% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 857% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -131%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -263% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 467% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -322%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -322% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -971% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 857% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VRCA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Verrica Pharmaceuticals (VRCA) experienced significant positive stock movement from late August 2025 to early December 2025, driven by several key developments in its financial performance, product commercialization, regulatory progress, and strategic financing.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Verrica Pharmaceuticals reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 14, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced an actual EPS of $0.13 against a forecasted -$0.08, marking a 262.5% surprise, and total revenue of $14.3 million compared to a forecasted $5.34 million. This positive financial turnaround from a net loss in Q3 2024 to a non-GAAP net income of $1.2 million in Q3 2025 fueled investor confidence.
2. Continued Commercial Success of YCANTH and International Milestones: The company reported a 120% year-over-year increase in dispensed applicator units of YCANTH for molluscum contagiosum. Furthermore, in September 2025, Verrica received a $10 million cash milestone payment from its Japanese partner, Torii Pharmaceutical, following the approval of YCANTH in Japan. These events demonstrated YCANTH's growing market penetration and successful international collaboration.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VRCA Return | -28% | -20% | -70% | 166% | -90% | -4% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 2% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VRCA Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VRCA Max Drawdown | -61% | -21% | -80% | 0% | -91% | -90% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VRCA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 864.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 210 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 201.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Verrica Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -89.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -89.6% loss requires a 864.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Verrica Pharmaceuticals Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 88% | Notification | |
| Would You Still Hold Verrica Pharmaceuticals Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VRCA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Verrica Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| Rev LTM | 10 |
| Op Inc LTM | -70 |
| FCF LTM | -47 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -47 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 222.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 78.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 53.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -262.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -170.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 254.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -322.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -144.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -322.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -147.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.2 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | -481.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -196.1% |
| D/E | 3.9 |
| Net D/E | 2.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and selling medications for skin diseases requiring medical intervention | 5 | 9 | 12 | ||
| Total | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and selling medications for skin diseases requiring medical intervention | -67 | ||||
| Total | -67 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and selling medications for skin diseases requiring medical intervention | 74 | 68 | |||
| Total | 74 | 68 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |