Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.28 | Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.28Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 129% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Dermatological Drug Development. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 131%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 129% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Dermatological Drug Development. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 131%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARQT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) experienced a significant 101% stock increase between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, driven by several key developments:
1. Arcutis Biotherapeutics reported exceptionally strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, achieving profitability for the first time. The company announced net product revenue of $99.2 million for Q3 2025, representing a 122% year-over-year increase and exceeding analyst estimates of $88.7 million. Crucially, Arcutis recorded a net income of $7.4 million, or $0.06 earnings per share (EPS), a significant turnaround from a net loss of $41.5 million in the prior year's quarter and substantially surpassing the estimated loss of $0.10 per share. This performance fueled an initial stock surge of approximately 15.8% in pre-market trading.
2. The company received U.S. FDA approval for its ZORYVE cream 0.05% for the treatment of atopic dermatitis in children as young as 2 years of age. This regulatory approval, announced in October 2025, significantly expanded the market potential for Arcutis's flagship product, ZORYVE, providing a new non-steroidal treatment option for a younger pediatric patient population. The launch of this pediatric indication was planned for the end of October 2025.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARQT Return | - | -26% | -29% | -78% | 331% | 124% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARQT Win Rate | 55% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARQT Max Drawdown | - | -47% | -33% | -88% | 0% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARQT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1909.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Arcutis Biotherapeutics's stock fell -95.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -95.0% loss requires a 1909.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARQT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.4 |
| Rev LTM | 318 |
| Op Inc LTM | -38 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 69.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1,167.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 66.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -6.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -95.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -99.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -102.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.4 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | -30.7 |
| P/E | -13.5 |
| P/CFO | -23.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -14.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 53.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 66.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 72.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 42.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 51.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 61.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Watanabe Todd | See Remarks | 11242025 | Sell | 30.00 | 1,055 | 31,650 | 23,815,140 | Form |
| 1 | Matsuda Masaru | See Remarks | 11212025 | Sell | 27.95 | 989 | 27,647 | 4,278,012 | Form |
| 2 | Edwards Larry Todd | See Remarks | 11102025 | Sell | 25.16 | 29,131 | 732,927 | 3,778,811 | Form |
| 3 | Burnett Patrick | See Remarks | 11052025 | Sell | 24.71 | 2,607 | 64,425 | 2,525,706 | Form |
| 4 | Welgus Howard G. | 11052025 | Sell | 25.27 | 10,000 | 252,669 | 2,267,553 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |