Tearsheet

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.28 | Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $31.28
Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 129%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Dermatological Drug Development.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 131%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 129%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Dermatological Drug Development.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -12%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 131%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARQT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) experienced a significant 101% stock increase between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, driven by several key developments: 1. Arcutis Biotherapeutics reported exceptionally strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, achieving profitability for the first time. The company announced net product revenue of $99.2 million for Q3 2025, representing a 122% year-over-year increase and exceeding analyst estimates of $88.7 million. Crucially, Arcutis recorded a net income of $7.4 million, or $0.06 earnings per share (EPS), a significant turnaround from a net loss of $41.5 million in the prior year's quarter and substantially surpassing the estimated loss of $0.10 per share. This performance fueled an initial stock surge of approximately 15.8% in pre-market trading.

2. The company received U.S. FDA approval for its ZORYVE cream 0.05% for the treatment of atopic dermatitis in children as young as 2 years of age. This regulatory approval, announced in October 2025, significantly expanded the market potential for Arcutis's flagship product, ZORYVE, providing a new non-steroidal treatment option for a younger pediatric patient population. The launch of this pediatric indication was planned for the end of October 2025.

3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARQT Return--26%-29%-78%331%124%11%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARQT Win Rate55%42%58%42%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARQT Max Drawdown--47%-33%-88%0%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARQTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1909.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Arcutis Biotherapeutics's stock fell -95.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -95.0% loss requires a 1909.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)

Better Bets than Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARQT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arcutis Biotherapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARQTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameArcutis .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price31.16457.36-2.631.17-16.89
Mkt Cap4.0116.9----60.4
Rev LTM31811,723-0--318
Op Inc LTM-38-92--5---38
FCF LTM-483,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1592,064--10---10
CFO LTM-333,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1542,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

ARQTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameArcutis .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM129.2%10.3%----69.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2,325.4%10.5%----1,167.9%
Rev Chg Q121.7%11.0%----66.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM20.7%2.7%----11.7%
Op Mgn LTM-12.0%-0.8%-----6.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-216.5%26.2%-----95.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM20.6%1.0%----10.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-10.2%31.7%----10.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-221.7%23.1%-----99.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-15.2%28.5%----6.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-223.7%19.8%-----102.0%

Valuation

ARQTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameArcutis .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap4.0116.9----60.4
P/S7.68.5----8.1
P/EBIT-83.922.4-----30.7
P/E-54.327.2-----13.5
P/CFO-73.926.9-----23.5
Total Yield-1.8%3.7%----0.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-32.2%2.3%-----14.9%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.0-----0.0

Returns

ARQTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameArcutis .Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn29.8%8.5%--23.2%-23.2%
3M Rtn92.2%15.2%----53.7%
6M Rtn130.6%3.1%----66.8%
12M Rtn147.1%-1.4%----72.8%
3Y Rtn79.6%44.0%----61.8%
1M Excs Rtn28.5%7.2%--22.0%-22.0%
3M Excs Rtn75.9%9.7%----42.8%
6M Excs Rtn115.2%-12.4%----51.4%
12M Excs Rtn137.6%-15.2%----61.2%
3Y Excs Rtn9.4%-28.7%-----9.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Other revenue300   
Product revenue, net294   
Total604   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment  408298107
Total  408298107


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,717,750
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume2,515,047
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.45
Basic Shares Quantity127,622,860
Short % of Basic Shares10.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Watanabe ToddSee Remarks11242025Sell30.001,05531,65023,815,140Form
1Matsuda MasaruSee Remarks11212025Sell27.9598927,6474,278,012Form
2Edwards Larry ToddSee Remarks11102025Sell25.1629,131732,9273,778,811Form
3Burnett PatrickSee Remarks11052025Sell24.712,60764,4252,525,706Form
4Welgus Howard G.11052025Sell25.2710,000252,6692,267,553Form