Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -220%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Experiential Retail.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 25x
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -78%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -521%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Experiential Retail.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -220%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 25x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -78%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -521%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VENU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, Venu (symbol: VENU) experienced a stock movement of -16.8%. Key points explaining this movement include: 1. Q3 2025 Revenue Missed Analyst Expectations. Venu Holding Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $5.385 million, which declined 1.2% year-over-year and fell short of Wall Street consensus estimates of $7.43 million.

2. Weakened EBITDA Below Consensus. The company's EBITDA for Q3 2025 was weaker than anticipated, coming in at -$8.64 million compared to a consensus estimate of -$6.48 million. This reflected elevated general and administrative expenses and ongoing investments in scaling the business.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VENU Return-----16%16%
Peers Return20%31%4%1%8%-5%70%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VENU Win Rate----0%60% 
Peers Win Rate32%35%30%25%27%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VENU Max Drawdown------20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-3%-15%-10%-14%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

VENU has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Venu (VENU)

Better Bets than Venu (VENU)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VENU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Venu

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Price10.57309.4626.2924.3010.48308.5425.30
Mkt Cap0.40.40.2--220.00.4
Rev LTM18387282--26,263334
Op Inc LTM-392447--12,11335
FCF LTM-928134--7,37257
FCF 3Y Avg-5428--7,04954
CFO LTM-1410751--10,48579
CFO 3Y Avg-8056--9,70480

Growth & Margins

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Rev Chg LTM11.1%6.9%-5.3%--1.2%4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%4.2%--4.2%4.2%
Rev Chg Q7.5%10.3%-6.6%--3.0%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%2.5%-1.8%--0.8%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-219.7%6.2%16.6%--46.1%11.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8.1%19.8%--45.9%19.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-30.3%1.0%-1.3%---0.0%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-78.2%27.7%18.2%--39.9%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.3%19.4%--37.7%21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-521.2%21.0%11.9%--28.1%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.2%9.7%--27.4%14.2%

Valuation

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Cap0.40.40.2--220.00.4
P/S25.31.11.2--8.24.7
P/EBIT-11.761.29.3--17.713.5
P/E-11.3200.820.2--25.723.0
P/CFO-32.33.96.5--20.75.2
Total Yield-8.9%0.5%5.7%--6.2%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%--2.3%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.5%6.6%--3.4%6.6%
D/E0.10.80.8--0.30.5
Net D/E0.0-0.10.7--0.20.1

Returns

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
1M Rtn-16.0%-14.5%10.8%-1.5%135.0%3.7%1.1%
3M Rtn-11.8%-0.5%-27.2%---2.1%-6.9%
6M Rtn10.3%20.4%-34.7%--1.0%5.7%
12M Rtn3.6%38.0%-48.5%--7.0%5.3%
3Y Rtn-118.2%-69.4%--21.8%21.8%
1M Excs Rtn-17.2%-15.8%9.5%-2.8%133.7%2.5%-0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-15.9%-6.4%-32.9%---7.1%-11.5%
6M Excs Rtn-5.1%4.9%-50.1%---14.4%-9.8%
12M Excs Rtn-12.5%29.8%-61.3%---5.4%-9.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.2%-144.0%---50.7%-50.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity706,458
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.6%
Average Daily Volume87,377
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.09
Basic Shares Quantity37,984,523
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241223202410-Q 9/30/2024
33120248062024S-1 3/31/2024
1231202311272024424B4 12/31/2023