Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Experiential Retail.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -45 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -256%
1  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -579%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
5  Key risks
VENU key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Experiential Retail.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -45 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -256%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -579%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
6 Key risks
VENU key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VENU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Substantial Revenue Miss in Q3 2025
Venu Holding Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 revenues of $5.39 million, which significantly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.43 million by 42.1%. This substantial underperformance likely led to a negative reassessment of the company's near-term growth prospects and overall valuation by the market.

2. Persistent Negative Profitability Metrics
The Q3 2025 earnings report further highlighted ongoing profitability challenges, with Venu reporting a deeply negative net margin of 238.68% and a negative return on equity of 26.71%. These figures indicate that despite its operations, the company continues to incur significant losses relative to its sales and shareholder equity, raising investor concerns about its path to sustainable profitability.

3. Share Dilution from Public Offering
In late August 2025, Venu priced an underwritten public offering of 2,500,000 shares of common stock at $12.00 per share, generating gross proceeds of $30 million. While this offering provided capital for development, the issuance of new shares inherently diluted the ownership stake of existing shareholders, which typically exerts downward pressure on the stock price.

4. Uncertainty from Large Shelf Registration
The filing of an effective Form S-3 shelf registration on December 1, 2025, which permits VENU to issue up to $1,000,000,000 in various securities over time, could have introduced investor apprehension. Although providing significant financing flexibility for future projects, this authorization also signals the potential for substantial future dilution through equity offerings or an increased debt burden, thereby creating uncertainty and negative sentiment among investors.

5. Concerns Over Execution and Capital Requirements for Expansion
Despite numerous announcements about ambitious expansion plans, including new amphitheaters and entertainment destinations, the company's consistent negative profitability and its demonstrated need for significant financing (evidenced by the public offering and shelf registration) may have led investors to question Venu's ability to efficiently execute its growth strategy without further substantial capital raises that could dilute shareholder value. The discrepancy between an earlier projected 2025 revenue of $200 million and the reported Q3 revenue of $5.39 million may have amplified these concerns.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VENU Return-4%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VENU Win Rate0%50% 
Peers Win Rate48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VENU Max Drawdown-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

VENU has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Venu (VENU)

Better Bets than Venu (VENU)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VENU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Venu

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Price9.10323.6724.4621.450.68318.6922.95
Mkt Cap0.50.40.20.3-227.20.4
Rev LTM18387282--26,263334
Op Inc LTM-452447--12,11335
FCF LTM-1028134--7,37257
FCF 3Y Avg-5428--7,04954
CFO LTM-1510751--10,48579
CFO 3Y Avg-8056--9,70480

Growth & Margins

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Rev Chg LTM0.9%6.9%-5.3%--1.2%1.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.7%4.2%--4.2%4.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%10.3%-6.6%--3.0%0.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%2.5%-1.8%--0.8%0.2%
Op Mgn LTM-256.3%6.2%16.6%--46.1%11.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8.1%19.8%--45.9%19.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-36.5%1.0%-1.3%---0.0%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-83.7%27.7%18.2%--39.9%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.3%19.4%--37.7%21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-578.6%21.0%11.9%--28.1%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.2%9.7%--27.4%14.2%

Valuation

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Cap0.50.40.20.3-227.20.4
P/S30.01.11.2--8.24.7
P/EBIT-61.29.3--17.717.7
P/E-12.6200.820.2--25.723.0
P/CFO-35.93.96.5--20.75.2
Total Yield-8.0%0.5%5.7%--6.2%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%-2.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.5%6.6%--3.4%6.6%
D/E-0.80.80.5-0.30.7
Net D/E--0.10.70.4-0.20.3

Returns

VENUBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameVenu Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
1M Rtn4.8%5.2%6.0%1.5%-88.1%5.2%5.0%
3M Rtn-27.8%4.6%-4.9%-22.7%-5.1%-4.9%
6M Rtn-32.3%18.0%-37.8%--11.3%-10.5%
12M Rtn-0.1%26.1%-57.5%--10.1%5.0%
3Y Rtn-133.3%-73.3%--28.4%28.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.1%4.5%5.3%0.7%-88.8%4.4%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-29.3%3.1%-14.3%-24.3%-5.1%-14.3%
6M Excs Rtn-44.7%5.6%-50.2%---1.1%-22.9%
12M Excs Rtn-13.8%29.1%-63.7%---1.1%-7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-58.4%-139.0%---44.9%-44.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Single segment139
Total139


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity830,258
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202517.5%
Average Daily Volume187,383
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.43
Basic Shares Quantity41,355,312
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/17/2025-21.4%-12.2% 
8/15/20252.2%12.8%-20.4%
4/1/2025-0.2%-6.6%-13.0%
12/30/2024-1.3%5.4%7.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121
# Negative323
Median Positive2.2%9.1%7.6%
Median Negative-1.3%-9.4%-16.7%
Max Positive2.2%12.8%7.6%
Max Negative-21.4%-12.2%-20.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241223202410-Q 9/30/2024
33120248062024S-1 3/31/2024
1231202311272024424B4 12/31/2023