Tearsheet

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $56.81 | Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $56.81
Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
  Key risks
VAC key risks include [1] significant debt leverage that has resulted in a credit rating downgrade and [2] declining operational performance, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.2%
4 Key risks
VAC key risks include [1] significant debt leverage that has resulted in a credit rating downgrade and [2] declining operational performance, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VAC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -26.4% movement in Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025: 1. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which were released on November 5, 2025. The company's revenue of $1.26 billion fell short of analyst expectations, marking a 3.2% year-over-year decline. Additionally, consolidated contract sales decreased by 4% compared to the prior year, primarily due to a 1% decline in tours and a 5% drop in Volume Per Guest (VPG). Adjusted EBITDA also missed analyst estimates, coming in at $170 million.

2. Lowered Full-Year Guidance. Following the disappointing third-quarter performance, Marriott Vacations Worldwide updated and lowered its full-year guidance for both net sales and Adjusted EBITDA. The company revised its net sales outlook to a range of $1.760 billion to $1.780 billion and its Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $740 million to $755 million. This downward adjustment signaled a less optimistic financial outlook from management.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VAC Return7%24%-19%-35%10%-33%-49%
Peers Return-9%37%-18%32%23%18%95%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VAC Win Rate58%50%33%25%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate50%53%47%53%63%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VAC Max Drawdown-71%-11%-32%-45%-18%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-61%-9%-30%-5%-5%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HGV, TNL, MAR, HLT, H. See VAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVACS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven251.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven237 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven788 days120 days

Compare to JLL, FTHM, AHMA, BKNG, MAR


In The Past

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -61.2% loss requires a 158.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)

Better Bets than Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.9%-8.9%-27.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.9%-8.9%-27.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Marriott Vacations Worldwide

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VACHGVTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameMarriott.Hilton G.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Mkt Price56.9144.7570.78305.97285.83162.69116.73
Mkt Cap2.34.04.683.266.915.510.1
Rev LTM5,0364,9983,96725,92511,7356,9145,975
Op Inc LTM5055517874,1372,580449669
FCF LTM63775061,9272,296107306
FCF 3Y Avg1171294162,3231,916397406
CFO LTM1222386142,7012,508301458
CFO 3Y Avg2002465022,9142,122590546

Growth & Margins

VACHGVTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameMarriott.Hilton G.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Rev Chg LTM4.2%6.0%3.6%4.7%6.7%3.1%4.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.3%10.9%3.9%10.6%13.1%9.1%9.9%
Rev Chg Q-3.2%-0.5%5.1%3.7%8.8%9.6%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.8%-0.1%1.3%0.9%2.2%2.3%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.0%11.0%19.8%16.0%22.0%6.5%13.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.7%14.4%19.6%16.3%22.0%5.8%15.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-1.1%-0.0%0.6%0.8%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM2.4%4.8%15.5%10.4%21.4%4.4%7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.2%5.5%13.0%11.8%19.4%8.8%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM1.3%1.5%12.8%7.4%19.6%1.5%4.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.4%3.0%10.8%9.4%17.5%5.9%7.7%

Valuation

VACHGVTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameMarriott.Hilton G.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Mkt Cap2.34.04.683.266.915.510.1
P/S0.50.71.02.75.22.01.5
P/EBIT-8.34.816.923.444.216.9
P/E13.469.79.427.136.5-154.020.3
P/CFO19.015.56.326.224.245.021.6
Total Yield13.3%1.4%14.4%4.7%2.9%-0.2%3.8%
Dividend Yield5.9%0.0%3.8%1.0%0.1%0.4%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.2%12.7%3.5%3.8%3.1%3.5%
D/E-2.01.40.20.20.50.5
Net D/E-1.91.40.20.20.40.4

Returns

VACHGVTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameMarriott.Hilton G.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
1M Rtn25.1%13.7%13.2%7.1%6.0%6.9%10.1%
3M Rtn-27.0%-1.5%15.7%14.5%4.4%13.6%9.0%
6M Rtn-15.5%13.5%47.6%20.0%15.9%21.7%17.9%
12M Rtn-37.1%10.5%38.1%6.4%13.2%2.1%8.5%
3Y Rtn-54.3%9.2%121.1%105.0%120.2%71.7%88.4%
1M Excs Rtn24.1%12.7%12.2%6.1%5.0%5.9%9.1%
3M Excs Rtn-27.9%-3.0%13.8%14.0%4.3%12.4%8.4%
6M Excs Rtn-29.1%-0.2%33.9%6.3%2.2%8.0%4.3%
12M Excs Rtn-49.8%-2.0%26.4%-5.8%-0.4%-10.0%-3.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-127.6%-64.2%46.6%22.8%37.0%-5.9%8.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Vacation Ownership8,1678,0377,8976,8597,345
Exchange & Third-Party Management8138659119511,162
Corporate and other7007378051,088707
Total9,6809,6399,6138,8989,214


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,506,003
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202523.4%
Average Daily Volume772,700
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.24
Basic Shares Quantity34,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-26.4%-29.8%-21.3%
8/4/2025-1.8%-5.1%4.5%
5/7/202510.5%24.1%14.8%
2/26/2025-9.3%-13.7%-21.0%
11/6/202413.2%9.3%14.1%
7/31/2024-7.9%-13.6%-13.1%
5/6/20241.7%2.8%-9.0%
2/21/20249.6%8.7%16.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9711
# Negative151713
Median Positive2.6%8.7%8.1%
Median Negative-3.2%-6.6%-12.8%
Max Positive13.2%24.1%39.8%
Max Negative-26.4%-29.8%-35.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gray Jonice M 11252025Buy54.471,10059,917719,276Form
1Morgan Dianna 11242025Buy51.2250025,6101,182,875Form
2MCCARTEN WILLIAM W 11212025Buy48.085,000240,400659,081Form
3Asmar Christian11192025Buy47.4484,0003,984,960195,943,330Form
4GALBREATH LIZANNE 11182025Buy46.515,500255,8051,195,958Form