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Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.34 | Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.34
Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 205%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VAC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) experienced a significant stock decline, attributed to several key factors.

1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results: Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported a 4% year-over-year decline in consolidated contract sales to $439 million in the third quarter of 2025, driven by lower tours and Volume Per Guest (VPG). Additionally, the company recorded a GAAP net loss of $2 million, and its Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 16% compared to the prior year.

2. Revenue Miss and Lowered Full-Year Guidance: The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached $1.26 billion, falling short of the anticipated $1.31 billion. This miss was compounded by management's decision to lower its full-year 2025 guidance for both Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, signaling a more challenging outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VAC Return7%24%-19%-35%10%-37%-52%
Peers Return-4%14%-29%26%9%4%11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VAC Win Rate58%50%33%25%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate44%43%30%48%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VAC Max Drawdown-71%-11%-32%-45%-18%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-16%-36%-14%-17%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JLL, FTHM, AHMA, BKNG, MAR. See VAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVACS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven251.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven237 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven788 days120 days

Compare to JLL, FTHM, AHMA, BKNG, MAR


In The Past

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -61.2% loss requires a 158.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)

Better Bets than Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.5%-11.5%-27.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.5%-11.5%-27.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Marriott Vacations Worldwide

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VACJLLFTHMAHMABKNGMARMedian
NameMarriott.Jones La.Fathom Ambition.Booking Marriott. 
Mkt Price55.29329.601.2315.045,047.21306.65180.97
Mkt Cap1.915.60.0-163.483.315.6
Rev LTM5,07825,318390-26,03925,92525,318
Op Inc LTM5891,036-17-8,9814,1371,036
FCF LTM70912-16-8,3151,927912
FCF 3Y Avg150522-14-8,2202,323522
CFO LTM1321,110-12-8,6402,7011,110
CFO 3Y Avg234715-11-8,5862,914715

Growth & Margins

VACJLLFTHMAHMABKNGMARMedian
NameMarriott.Jones La.Fathom Ambition.Booking Marriott. 
Rev Chg LTM7.7%12.5%19.2%-13.0%4.7%12.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.3%6.3%-1.0%-17.8%10.6%6.3%
Rev Chg Q9.3%10.9%36.1%-12.7%3.7%10.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%2.6%9.0%-4.1%0.9%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM11.6%4.1%-4.5%-34.5%16.0%11.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.9%3.6%-6.1%-31.4%16.3%12.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.2%0.8%-1.6%0.6%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM2.6%4.4%-3.2%-33.2%10.4%4.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%3.1%-3.1%-37.2%11.8%4.9%
FCF/Rev LTM1.4%3.6%-4.0%-31.9%7.4%3.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%2.2%-3.8%-35.6%9.4%3.1%

Valuation

VACJLLFTHMAHMABKNGMARMedian
NameMarriott.Jones La.Fathom Ambition.Booking Marriott. 
Mkt Cap1.915.60.0-163.483.315.6
P/S0.50.60.1-6.72.70.6
P/EBIT4.713.6-1.4-20.816.913.6
P/E9.722.4-1.4-34.727.122.4
P/CFO19.112.7-2.8-20.226.219.1
Total Yield14.6%4.5%-69.2%-3.6%4.7%4.5%
Dividend Yield4.3%0.0%0.0%-0.7%1.0%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.2%4.4%-31.3%-6.0%3.5%4.2%
D/E2.10.20.7-0.10.20.2
Net D/E2.10.20.5-0.00.20.2

Returns

VACJLLFTHMAHMABKNGMARMedian
NameMarriott.Jones La.Fathom Ambition.Booking Marriott. 
1M Rtn-18.1%9.8%-11.5%197.8%0.3%16.5%5.1%
3M Rtn-28.1%9.6%-37.9%--9.6%16.0%-9.6%
6M Rtn-14.8%43.8%-3.9%--8.9%17.6%-3.9%
12M Rtn-40.4%18.2%-42.3%--2.5%8.7%-2.5%
3Y Rtn-59.4%97.6%-75.9%-145.5%90.8%90.8%
1M Excs Rtn-18.0%9.9%-11.5%197.9%0.4%16.5%5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-34.5%1.8%-38.9%--15.0%9.0%-15.0%
6M Excs Rtn-29.5%29.0%-18.6%--23.6%2.9%-18.6%
12M Excs Rtn-55.4%3.9%-50.8%--15.8%-6.4%-15.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-130.6%34.0%-145.9%-85.1%26.1%26.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Vacation Ownership4,4684,3423,5392,5303,761
Exchange & Third-Party Management262291320309454
Corporate and other-323 4744
Property Owners’ Associations  31  
Total4,7274,6563,8902,8864,259


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Vacation Ownership8,167  6,8597,345
Exchange & Third-Party Management813  9511,162
Corporate and other700  1,088707
Total9,680  8,8989,214


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,031,210
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.1%
Average Daily Volume925,680
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.19
Basic Shares Quantity34,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gray Jonice M 11252025Buy54.471,10059,917719,276Form
1Morgan Dianna 11242025Buy51.2250025,6101,182,875Form
2MCCARTEN WILLIAM W 11212025Buy48.085,000240,400659,081Form
3Asmar Christian11192025Buy47.4484,0003,984,960195,943,330Form
4GALBREATH LIZANNE 11182025Buy46.515,500255,8051,195,958Form