Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $89.69 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $89.69Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 171% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 193x Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% Key risksVAC key risks include [1] significant debt leverage that has resulted in a credit rating downgrade and [2] declining operational performance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -103% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 171% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 193x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksVAC key risks include [1] significant debt leverage that has resulted in a credit rating downgrade and [2] declining operational performance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) stock has gained about 40% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Outlook and Strong Q4 2025 Performance.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 25, 2026, which "significantly exceeded analyst expectations" and led to a premarket stock surge of over 15% to $67 on February 26, 2026. The company projected a 176% increase in adjusted free cash flow for 2026, from $145 million in 2025 to a range of $375 million to $425 million in 2026, indicating a fundamental shift in capital allocation priorities.
2. Q1 2026 Revenue Outperformance and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance.
Despite a miss on adjusted diluted earnings per share, Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.26 billion on May 5, 2026, surpassing analyst estimates by 5.1% and representing a 4.8% increase year-over-year. The company reiterated its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $755 million to $780 million and raised its 2026 contract sales guidance to a range of $1,815 million to $1,885 million, signaling confidence in future performance despite a 2% decline in Q1 contract sales.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.0% change in VAC stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 63.60 | 89.66 | 41.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,036 | 5,089 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.6 | 37.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 34 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VAC | 41.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.8% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.2% change in VAC stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.69 | 89.66 | 70.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,036 | 5,089 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.6 | 66.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 34 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VAC | 70.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 34.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 44.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.5% change in VAC stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.91 | 89.66 | 42.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,972 | 5,089 | 2.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.6 | 36.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 34 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VAC | 42.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 39.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.9% | 48.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.9% change in VAC stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.27 | 89.66 | -17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,773 | 5,089 | 6.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.6 | -29.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 37 | 34 | 8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VAC | -17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.9% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 59.0% | 53.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VAC Return | 24% | -19% | -35% | 10% | -33% | 61% | -23% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -18% | 32% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 145% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VAC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 53% | 63% | 65% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VAC Max Drawdown | -26% | -34% | -55% | -36% | -48% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -36% | -21% | -20% | -31% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HGV, TNL, MAR, HLT, H. See VAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock fell -43.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Marriott Vacations Worldwide's stock fell -43.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC):
- It's like Marriott International (MAR), but for luxury timeshares.
- It's like Toll Brothers (TOL), but for luxury vacation home ownership.
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```html- Vacation Ownership Products: Fractional ownership interests in vacation properties, providing access to a portfolio of upscale resorts under various brands.
- Exchange Networks and Membership Programs: Services enabling vacation owners to exchange their ownership interests for stays at other resorts within a broad network.
- Third-Party Resort Management Services: Management and operational services provided to other resorts and lodging properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) primarily sells its vacation ownership products and experiences directly to individual consumers rather than other businesses. Based on the company description, its major customers can be categorized as:
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Affluent Travelers and High-Net-Worth Individuals: The company develops and sells "upscale tier vacation ownership products" under premium brands such as Marriott Vacation Club, The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club, Sheraton Vacation Club, and Westin Vacation Club. These products typically appeal to individuals and families with significant disposable income who seek luxury accommodations and consistent, high-quality vacation experiences.
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Brand-Loyal Consumers: Individuals who are already loyal to the Marriott, Sheraton, Westin, or Hyatt brands and are familiar with their service standards and amenities often represent a significant customer segment. They may be motivated to purchase vacation ownership products associated with brands they trust and frequently patronize, leveraging existing loyalty program benefits or familiarity.
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Families and Frequent Vacationers: Customers who vacation regularly, often with families, and seek spacious, consistent, and resort-style accommodations are prime candidates for vacation ownership. They are looking for a convenient and reliable way to secure their vacation plans year after year, often valuing the amenities, services, and flexibility offered by a portfolio of global resorts.
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Matthew E. Avril, Chief Executive Officer
Matthew E. Avril assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer of Marriott Vacations Worldwide (MVW) in February 2026, after serving as Interim President and CEO since November 2025. He joined MVW's Board of Directors in March 2025 and brings over 30 years of executive leadership experience in the hospitality and vacation ownership industry. Prior to MVW, Mr. Avril was the Chief Executive Officer of Diamond Resorts International, Inc., a hospitality and vacation ownership company, from November 2016 to March 2017. He also previously served as Chief Executive Officer-elect for Vistana Signature Experiences and as President of the Hotel Group for Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide.
Jason Marino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jason Marino serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marriott Vacations Worldwide. In this role, he leads the finance, accounting, and development organizations, providing financial support and a strategic perspective to drive the company's overall financial results and growth.
Michael A. Flaskey, President and Chief Operating Officer
Michael A. Flaskey was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer of Marriott Vacations Worldwide in February 2026. With over 25 years of experience in the vacation ownership and hospitality industries, Mr. Flaskey most recently served as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Hornblower Group, a maritime hospitality company, from August 2024 to December 2025. Notably, he spent more than a decade leading Diamond Resorts International, including serving as Chief Executive Officer from 2017 to 2021, where he oversaw a transformation that culminated in the company's acquisition by Hilton Grand Vacations.
Raman Bukkapatnam, Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer
Raman Bukkapatnam is the Chief Information Officer of Marriott Vacations Worldwide, a position he has held as a member of the executive leadership team since 2023. He is responsible for modernizing the company's technology infrastructure across its global sites and resorts, enhancing productivity through process improvements and automation, and developing new digital tools to enrich the vacation experience for Owners, members, and guests.
Tony Walker, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer
Tony Walker serves as the Chief Sales and Marketing Officer for Marriott Vacations Worldwide. With over two decades of leadership experience in the vacation ownership and hospitality sector, Mr. Walker directs the company's global sales and marketing strategy. His focus is on fostering growth, improving execution, and cultivating high-performing, culture-driven teams, leveraging his extensive expertise in sales, marketing, and operations gained from senior leadership roles at various prominent hospitality and vacation ownership organizations.
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The key risks to Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) are:
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Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Consumer Spending: The timeshare business is highly susceptible to fluctuations in consumer confidence and discretionary spending, which directly impact contract sales. Recent reports indicate a decline in consolidated contract sales and lower Volume Per Guest (VPG), signaling pressure on consumers and challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Weakness in key markets like Orlando and Maui further underscores this risk. Economic downturns and potential recessionary pressures can directly affect the demand for vacation ownership products and services.
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High Debt Levels and Financial Leverage: Marriott Vacations Worldwide carries substantial debt, which poses a significant financial risk. The company's net debt to equity ratio is considered high, and its debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, nor are its interest payments adequately covered by EBIT. S&P Global Ratings downgraded the company's credit rating due to concerns over high debt levels and a forecasted decline in contract sales, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and limit financial flexibility.
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Operational Challenges, Sales & Marketing Effectiveness, and High Costs: The company faces operational challenges, including high operating costs, particularly in sales and marketing, which are impacting margins. Declining contract sales in key markets and lower VPG indicate issues with sales effectiveness. Furthermore, the company has incurred significant non-cash impairment charges related to past acquisitions and assets, highlighting execution risks around capital deployment and regional expansion. Efforts to modernize and streamline operations are ongoing, but higher unsold maintenance fees and product costs also present challenges to profitability.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation's primary addressable market is the global vacation ownership (timeshare) industry. The global vacation ownership market was valued at approximately USD 12.7 billion in 2024. Other estimates for 2024 place the market at USD 13.14 billion and USD 20.4 billion. This market is projected to grow substantially, with estimates ranging from USD 23.8 billion by 2034 to as high as USD 47.8 billion by 2035. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global market is generally estimated to be between 6.5% and 9.1% during the forecast periods. For the U.S. market, the timeshare industry's sales volume increased to USD 10.5 billion in 2022. North America, including the U.S., accounted for approximately 41% of the global vacation ownership market share in 2024. Marriott Vacations Worldwide also operates exchange networks and provides management services to other resorts and lodging properties. However, specific addressable market sizes in monetary terms for these services, distinct from the broader vacation ownership market, are not readily available in the provided information.AI Analysis | Feedback
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
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Increased Contract Sales from Existing Owners and New Buyers: The company anticipates an increase in contract sales, with a projected 1% growth at the midpoint for 2026. This growth is supported by efforts to engage existing owners, as evidenced by an increase in owner Volume Per Guest (VPG) for the first time since 2024. Additionally, the company has built a pipeline of 270,000 vacation packages and attracted 100,000 new first-time buyers over the past five years, creating future upgrade potential.
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Growth in Exchange and Third-Party Management Revenue: Marriott Vacations Worldwide projects a 2% to 4% increase in its management and exchange revenue through 2026. This growth is expected to come from higher fees associated with the usage volume of goods, services, and food and beverage spending at its resorts.
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Benefits from Modernization Program and Enhanced Capital Efficiency: While primarily focused on profitability, the company's modernization program is slated to deliver $150 million to $200 million in annualized Adjusted EBITDA benefits by the end of 2026. This strategic shift towards margin expansion and capital efficiency allows for optimized resource allocation and potential reinvestment into revenue-generating initiatives, such as expanded digital capabilities and data analytics, which can enhance sales and marketing effectiveness.
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Strategic Emphasis on Profitable Revenue Growth: Marriott Vacations Worldwide is pivoting its strategy from purely sales volume growth to a more disciplined approach that prioritizes profitable revenue. This includes strengthening marketing and sales execution and implementing greater cost and capital allocation discipline. Such a focus can lead to more targeted and effective revenue-generating activities and a healthier top line over the long term.
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Share Repurchases
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide's Board of Directors extended its share repurchase program through December 31, 2026.
- The company returned $171 million to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases in full year 2025.
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide spent $286 million on share repurchases in 2023 and $701 million in 2022, but expected to spend less in 2024 to improve leverage.
Share Issuance
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 34.3 million common shares outstanding.
- There is no indication of significant share issuances in recent years.
Inbound Investments
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company issued $470 million of vacation ownership notes through a securitization, with a gross advance rate of 98%.
Outbound Investments
- The company has a roadmap for new resort developments through 2028, including a Marriott Vacation Club resort in Khao Lak, Thailand (2025/2026), a new resort in Nusa Dua, Bali (2026), a Hyatt Vacation Club in Orlando, Florida (2027), and Westin Vacation Clubs in Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia (2028).
Capital Expenditures
- The company is investing approximately $200 million through 2026 as part of a modernization program focused on technology and automation.
- Expected capital expenditures are $50 million-$75 million for 2025 and approximately $100 million for 2026.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes its modernization program, attracting and retaining sales staff, and driving tour growth.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,158 |
| Op Inc LTM | 652 |
| FCF LTM | 349 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 385 |
| CFO LTM | 474 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 529 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 31.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 43.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 84.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $89.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/08/2011 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $72.31 | $64.17 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 24.0% | 39.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.2% | 53.5% |
| Downside Capture | 135.12 | 172.34 |
| Upside Capture | 189.30 | 164.40 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.1% | 39.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.35 | 2.05 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.76 | 1.57 |
| Up Beta | 5.42 | 2.28 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 2.07 | 1.59 |
| Down Beta | 4.42 | 2.69 | 1.87 | 1.77 | 1.89 | 1.64 |
| Up Capture | 307% | 196% | 208% | 230% | 203% | 223% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 36 | 68 | 128 | 350 |
| Down Capture | 181% | 173% | 121% | 101% | 144% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 27 | 56 | 120 | 394 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAC | 42.7% | 53.5% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.9% | 18.1% | 0.43 | 48.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.5% | 11.8% | 1.95 | 39.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.9% | 26.7% | 1.12 | 0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.5% | 18.9% | 1.81 | -14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.1% | 13.2% | 0.47 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.2% | 41.6% | -0.82 | 16.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAC | -9.2% | 43.0% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.5% | 23.7% | 0.27 | 56.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 54.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.0% | 0.83 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.0% | 54.6% | 0.43 | 22.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAC | 6.8% | 45.9% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.9% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 58.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 57.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 17.9% | 0.34 | 19.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 50.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.0% | 66.9% | 1.05 | 14.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 5.0% | 7.1% | |
| 2/25/2026 | 16.7% | 19.7% | 22.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | -26.4% | -29.8% | -21.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.8% | -5.1% | 4.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.5% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -9.3% | -13.7% | -21.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 13.2% | 9.3% | 14.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -7.9% | -13.6% | -13.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -6.6% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.7% | 24.1% | 39.8% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -29.8% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Contract sales | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | Higher New | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 187.00 Mil | 194.50 Mil | 202.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Contract sales | 1.81 Bil | 1.85 Bil | 1.89 Bil | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.78 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 755.00 Mil | 767.50 Mil | 780.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 767.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders | 255.00 Mil | 270.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 270.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per share - diluted | 7.05 | 7.42 | 7.8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.42 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | 375.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 425.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Contract sales | 1.75 Bil | 1.78 Bil | 1.81 Bil | 0.6% | Raised | Actual: 1.77 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 755.00 Mil | 767.50 Mil | 780.00 Mil | 2.7% | Raised | Actual: 747.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders | 255.00 Mil | 270.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | -0.2% | Lowered | Actual: 270.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per share - diluted | 7.05 | 7.42 | 7.8 | 7.6% | Raised | Actual: 6.9 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | 375.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 425.00 Mil | 58.4% | Raised | Actual: 252.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest expense, net | 179.00 Mil | 181.50 Mil | 184.00 Mil | 6.1% | Raised | Actual: 171.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization | 148.00 Mil | 149.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | -0.3% | Lowered | Actual: 149.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Tax rate | 29.0% | 30.0% | 31.0% | Higher New | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flaskey, Michael | See Remarks | Michael Flaskey Family Trust | Buy | 3102026 | 67.26 | 14,862 | 999,636 | 999,636 | Form |
| 2 | Gray, Jonice M | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 54.47 | 1,100 | 59,917 | 719,276 | Form | |
| 3 | Morgan, Dianna | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 51.22 | 500 | 25,610 | 1,182,875 | Form | |
| 4 | McCarten, William W | Direct | Buy | 11212025 | 48.08 | 5,000 | 240,400 | 659,081 | Form | |
| 5 | Asmar, Christian | See Footnote | Buy | 11192025 | 47.44 | 84,000 | 3,984,960 | 195,943,330 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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