Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.23 | Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.23Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% | ||
| Key risksHGV key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden that increases its vulnerability to rising consumer loan delinquencies and [2] significant financial and reputational exposure to fraudulent third-party timeshare resale activities. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Key risksHGV key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden that increases its vulnerability to rising consumer loan delinquencies and [2] significant financial and reputational exposure to fraudulent third-party timeshare resale activities. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HGV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) experienced a sharp decline in its stock price, notably a 6.66% drop on October 30, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Reported Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenues Missed Estimates. The primary driver for the sharp decline on October 30, 2025, was the release of the company's Third Quarter 2025 financial results. HGV's earnings per share (EPS) and revenues fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.
2. Lingering Concerns Over High Leverage. Earlier in 2025, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations, citing concerns about the company's high leverage. The rating agency projected that HGV would maintain leverage above 5.5x throughout 2025. These ongoing worries about the company's debt levels likely contributed to investor apprehension following the disappointing Q3 earnings report.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HGV Return | -9% | 66% | -26% | 4% | -3% | 15% | 30% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 29% | -17% | 24% | 25% | 8% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HGV Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 52% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HGV Max Drawdown | -69% | -5% | -37% | -13% | -15% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -10% | -29% | -11% | -6% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VAC, TNL, MAR, HLT, H.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HGV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,004 days | 120 days |
Compare to H, WH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR
In The Past
Hilton Grand Vacations's stock fell -40.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -40.2% loss requires a 67.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HGV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302023 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 23.7% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.7% | 27.2% | -7.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302023 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 23.7% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.7% | 27.2% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilton Grand Vacations
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,975 |
| Op Inc LTM | 669 |
| FCF LTM | 306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 406 |
| CFO LTM | 458 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 546 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 20.3 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 2,357 | 2,378 | 1,451 | 494 | 1,252 |
| Resort operations and club management | 1,291 | 1,197 | 700 | 276 | 454 |
| Cost reimbursements | 386 | 297 | 202 | 137 | 168 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -56 | -37 | -18 | -13 | -36 |
| Total | 3,978 | 3,835 | 2,335 | 894 | 1,838 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 754 | 865 | 537 | 33 | 325 |
| Resort operations and club management | 504 | 463 | 353 | 136 | 265 |
| Other adjustment items | -29 | -53 | -35 | -17 | -12 |
| License fee expense | -138 | -124 | -80 | -51 | -101 |
| General and administrative | -194 | -212 | -151 | -92 | -118 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -213 | -244 | -126 | -45 | -44 |
| Total | 684 | 695 | 498 | -36 | 315 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 6,559 | 5,755 | 5,544 | 2,839 | 2,753 |
| Resort operations and club management | 1,735 | 1,986 | 2,145 | 79 | 196 |
| Corporate | 391 | 263 | 278 | 175 | 130 |
| Land and infrastructure held for sale | 41 | 41 | |||
| Total | 8,685 | 8,004 | 8,008 | 3,134 | 3,079 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -6.7% | -6.4% | -4.1% |
| 7/31/2025 | -11.7% | -12.6% | -6.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | 4.9% | 3.1% | -6.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.5% | 8.8% | 4.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | -7.8% | -8.4% | -5.3% |
| 5/9/2024 | -0.6% | -0.7% | -6.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | -7.7% | -5.3% | -2.9% |
| 11/6/2023 | -8.1% | -9.7% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 3.6% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -5.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 13.2% | 37.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -15.0% | -32.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |