Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.88 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.88Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HGV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the -9.8% movement in Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Hilton Grand Vacations reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025, with diluted EPS of $0.28 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.60, significantly missing analyst expectations of $0.98. Revenue of $1.3 billion also fell short of the $1.37 billion forecast, leading to an immediate stock drop of 4.3% during regular trading hours and a further 6.95% in pre-market trading.
2. Weakness in Vacation Ownership Interest (VOI) Sales: The company experienced a 14% year-over-year decrease in sales of Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs) during Q3 2025, indicating a slowdown in a core segment of its business.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HGV Return | -9% | 66% | -26% | 4% | -3% | 7% | 22% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 23% | -10% | 38% | 23% | -2% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HGV Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 45% | 35% | 52% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HGV Max Drawdown | -69% | -5% | -37% | -13% | -15% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -8% | -22% | -2% | -6% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: H, WH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HGV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1004 days | 120 days |
Compare to H, WH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR
In The Past
Hilton Grand Vacations's stock fell -40.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -40.2% loss requires a 67.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HGV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302023 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 23.7% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.7% | 27.2% | -7.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 11302023 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 23.7% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.7% | 27.2% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilton Grand Vacations
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 6,914 |
| Op Inc LTM | 593 |
| FCF LTM | 294 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 397 |
| CFO LTM | 349 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 590 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 27.1 |
| P/CFO | 20.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 63.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 2,357 | 2,378 | 1,451 | 494 | 1,252 |
| Resort operations and club management | 1,291 | 1,197 | 700 | 276 | 454 |
| Cost reimbursements | 386 | 297 | 202 | 137 | 168 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -56 | -37 | -18 | -13 | -36 |
| Total | 3,978 | 3,835 | 2,335 | 894 | 1,838 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 754 | 865 | 537 | 33 | 325 |
| Resort operations and club management | 504 | 463 | 353 | 136 | 265 |
| Other adjustment items | -29 | -53 | -35 | -17 | -12 |
| License fee expense | -138 | -124 | -80 | -51 | -101 |
| General and administrative | -194 | -212 | -151 | -92 | -118 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -213 | -244 | -126 | -45 | -44 |
| Total | 684 | 695 | 498 | -36 | 315 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate sales and financing | 6,559 | 5,755 | 5,544 | 2,839 | 2,753 |
| Resort operations and club management | 1,735 | 1,986 | 2,145 | 79 | 196 |
| Corporate | 391 | 263 | 278 | 175 | 130 |
| Land and infrastructure held for sale | 41 | 41 | |||
| Total | 8,685 | 8,004 | 8,008 | 3,134 | 3,079 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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