Tearsheet

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.23 | Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $45.23
Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7%
4   Key risks
HGV key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden that increases its vulnerability to rising consumer loan delinquencies and [2] significant financial and reputational exposure to fraudulent third-party timeshare resale activities.
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 191%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7%
7 Key risks
HGV key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden that increases its vulnerability to rising consumer loan delinquencies and [2] significant financial and reputational exposure to fraudulent third-party timeshare resale activities.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HGV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) experienced a sharp decline in its stock price, notably a 6.66% drop on October 30, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors: 1. Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Reported Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenues Missed Estimates. The primary driver for the sharp decline on October 30, 2025, was the release of the company's Third Quarter 2025 financial results. HGV's earnings per share (EPS) and revenues fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative market reaction.

2. Lingering Concerns Over High Leverage. Earlier in 2025, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations, citing concerns about the company's high leverage. The rating agency projected that HGV would maintain leverage above 5.5x throughout 2025. These ongoing worries about the company's debt levels likely contributed to investor apprehension following the disappointing Q3 earnings report.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HGV Return-9%66%-26%4%-3%15%30%
Peers Return-6%29%-17%24%25%8%69%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HGV Win Rate50%58%50%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate52%52%43%50%62%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HGV Max Drawdown-69%-5%-37%-13%-15%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-10%-29%-11%-6%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VAC, TNL, MAR, HLT, H.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHGVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven231.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven331 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,004 days120 days

Compare to H, WH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR


In The Past

Hilton Grand Vacations's stock fell -40.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -40.2% loss requires a 67.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)

Better Bets than Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HGV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
HGV_11302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302023HGVHilton Grand VacationsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%23.7%-0.8%
HGV_6302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302022HGVHilton Grand VacationsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.7%27.2%-7.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
HGV_11302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302023HGVHilton Grand VacationsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%23.7%-0.8%
HGV_6302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302022HGVHilton Grand VacationsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.7%27.2%-7.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hilton Grand Vacations

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HGVVACTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameHilton G.Marriott.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Mkt Price45.2058.1271.69310.07293.00164.28117.98
Mkt Cap4.02.34.784.368.615.710.2
Rev LTM4,9985,0363,96725,92511,7356,9145,975
Op Inc LTM5515057874,1372,580449669
FCF LTM77635061,9272,296107306
FCF 3Y Avg1291174162,3231,916397406
CFO LTM2381226142,7012,508301458
CFO 3Y Avg2462005022,9142,122590546

Growth & Margins

HGVVACTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameHilton G.Marriott.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Rev Chg LTM6.0%4.2%3.6%4.7%6.7%3.1%4.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.9%3.3%3.9%10.6%13.1%9.1%9.9%
Rev Chg Q-0.5%-3.2%5.1%3.7%8.8%9.6%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%-0.8%1.3%0.9%2.2%2.3%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM11.0%10.0%19.8%16.0%22.0%6.5%13.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.4%11.7%19.6%16.3%22.0%5.8%15.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.1%-1.6%-0.0%0.6%0.8%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.8%2.4%15.5%10.4%21.4%4.4%7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.5%4.2%13.0%11.8%19.4%8.8%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%1.3%12.8%7.4%19.6%1.5%4.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%2.4%10.8%9.4%17.5%5.9%7.7%

Valuation

HGVVACTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameHilton G.Marriott.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
Mkt Cap4.02.34.784.368.615.710.2
P/S0.70.51.02.75.22.01.5
P/EBIT8.3-4.816.923.444.216.9
P/E69.713.49.427.136.5-154.020.3
P/CFO15.519.06.326.224.245.021.6
Total Yield1.4%13.3%14.4%4.7%2.9%-0.2%3.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%5.9%3.8%1.0%0.1%0.4%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.2%-12.7%3.5%3.8%3.1%3.5%
D/E2.0-1.40.20.20.50.5
Net D/E1.9-1.40.20.20.40.4

Returns

HGVVACTNLMARHLTHMedian
NameHilton G.Marriott.Travel+L.Marriott.Hilton W.Hyatt Ho. 
1M Rtn18.0%25.5%18.0%9.6%10.1%10.3%14.1%
3M Rtn1.0%-23.3%18.3%18.6%10.0%16.6%13.3%
6M Rtn14.9%-13.7%49.1%21.0%18.5%24.2%19.7%
12M Rtn12.0%-35.5%41.8%8.2%17.3%4.7%10.1%
3Y Rtn10.3%-53.4%124.0%107.8%125.7%73.4%90.6%
1M Excs Rtn17.2%24.8%17.2%8.9%9.4%9.5%13.4%
3M Excs Rtn-0.6%-26.2%16.1%16.4%8.7%13.8%11.3%
6M Excs Rtn2.5%-26.0%36.8%8.6%6.1%11.8%7.4%
12M Excs Rtn1.1%-47.0%29.3%-2.0%5.1%-7.3%-0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-60.1%-122.9%48.7%27.4%44.7%-2.3%12.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Real estate sales and financing2,3572,3781,4514941,252
Resort operations and club management1,2911,197700276454
Cost reimbursements386297202137168
Intersegment eliminations-56-37-18-13-36
Total3,9783,8352,3358941,838


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Real estate sales and financing75486553733325
Resort operations and club management504463353136265
Other adjustment items-29-53-35-17-12
License fee expense-138-124-80-51-101
General and administrative-194-212-151-92-118
Depreciation and amortization-213-244-126-45-44
Total684695498-36315


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Real estate sales and financing6,5595,7555,5442,8392,753
Resort operations and club management1,7351,9862,14579196
Corporate391263278175130
Land and infrastructure held for sale  4141 
Total8,6858,0048,0083,1343,079


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,496,818
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.8%
Average Daily Volume802,431
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.10
Basic Shares Quantity88,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-6.7%-6.4%-4.1%
7/31/2025-11.7%-12.6%-6.0%
2/27/20254.9%3.1%-6.5%
11/7/20243.5%8.8%4.1%
8/8/2024-7.8%-8.4%-5.3%
5/9/2024-0.6%-0.7%-6.8%
2/29/2024-7.7%-5.3%-2.9%
11/6/2023-8.1%-9.7%-2.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive796
# Negative121013
Median Positive3.5%3.6%7.1%
Median Negative-4.7%-5.9%-6.0%
Max Positive7.1%13.2%37.8%
Max Negative-11.7%-15.0%-32.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021