Travel+Leisure (TNL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $71.66 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Travel+Leisure (TNL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $71.66Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Key risksTNL key risks include [1] significant debt levels and elevated loan portfolio delinquencies, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Key risksTNL key risks include [1] significant debt levels and elevated loan portfolio delinquencies, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TNL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceeding Q3 2025 Earnings Expectations and Raised Guidance
Travel+Leisure reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 22, 2025, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates. The company posted an Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.80, surpassing estimates of $1.72. Quarterly revenue also rose by 5.1% year-over-year to $1.04 billion, topping analyst estimates of $1.03 billion. Alongside these strong results, the company increased the midpoint of its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $975 million, with a new range of $965 million to $985 million, signaling a positive outlook for future performance.
2. Numerous Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Revisions
Several prominent investment firms issued favorable updates for Travel+Leisure during the period. On December 17, 2025, Barclays upgraded TNL from Underweight to Equal-Weight and raised its price target from $63 to $70. In November 2025, Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $74 price target, while Truist Securities maintained a Buy rating, increasing its price target from $70 to $71. Earlier, on October 23, 2025, Goldman Sachs, JMP Securities, and Barclays all raised their price targets for TNL, reflecting growing confidence in the company's valuation and future prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TNL Return | -9% | 26% | -32% | 13% | 35% | 46% | 74% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 37% | -16% | 22% | 18% | 2% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TNL Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 45% | 50% | 57% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TNL Max Drawdown | -67% | -3% | -37% | -7% | -1% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -10% | -29% | -12% | -9% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HGV, VAC, MAR, HLT, H.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TNL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 726 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 214.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 853 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1198.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,147 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to RRR, PK, MCRI, SHO, XHR
In The Past
Travel+Leisure's stock fell -50.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -50.8% loss requires a 103.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TNL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | TNL | Travel+Leisure | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | 8.5% | -11.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | TNL | Travel+Leisure | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | 8.5% | -11.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Travel+Leisure
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 117.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,975 |
| Op Inc LTM | 669 |
| FCF LTM | 306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 406 |
| CFO LTM | 458 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 546 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.2 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 20.3 |
| P/CFO | 21.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 15.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | 6.9% | 8.1% | 1.5% |
| 2/19/2025 | 0.7% | -2.8% | -15.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.0% | 7.3% | 16.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | -9.8% | -5.2% | -13.0% |
| 2/21/2024 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 14.9% |
| 10/25/2023 | -1.8% | 1.9% | 12.7% |
| 7/26/2023 | -5.3% | -1.4% | -3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.0% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 8.5% | 53.0% |
| Max Negative | -9.8% | -11.7% | -48.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | RICHARDS GEOFFREY | See Remarks | 10282025 | Sell | 66.06 | 26,838 | 1,772,803 | 7,449,564 | Form |
| 1 | MYERS JEFFREY | See Remarks | 10272025 | Sell | 66.16 | 21,362 | 1,413,310 | 8,018,008 | Form |
| 2 | ROBIN-CAPLAN AMANDINE | See remarks | 10272025 | Sell | 65.08 | 1,538 | 100,093 | 254,072 | Form |
| 3 | MARSHALL KIMBERLY | Chief Human Resources Officer | 10232025 | Sell | 65.00 | 16,500 | 1,072,500 | 2,615,340 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |