StableCoinX (USDE)
Market Price (7/2/2026): $3.88 | Market Cap: $218.4 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
StableCoinX (USDE)
Market Price (7/2/2026): $3.88Market Cap: $218.4 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, and Stablecoins. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Crypto & Blockchain. Themes include Digital Payments, and Stablecoins. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
StableCoinX (USDE) stock has lost about 45% since it went public on 6/26/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. A significant 70% contraction in Ethena's USDe circulating supply predated StableCoinX's public debut. USDe's circulating supply had decreased by 70% from its peak of $14 billion in October 2025 to approximately $4.5 billion by June 2026, before StableCoinX (USDE) began trading on Nasdaq on June 26, 2026. This decline stemmed from a broad market deleveraging that disproportionately affected synthetic assets.
2. StableCoinX's valuation is heavily tied to its ENA token treasury, which faces market volatility. The company holds approximately 3.029 billion ENA tokens, valued at about $275 million at the time of its Nasdaq listing. This substantial holding, representing roughly 20% of ENA's total supply, directly links StableCoinX's market value to the performance and adoption of the Ethena ecosystem and ENA token pricing.
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StableCoinX (USDE) stock has lost about 45% since it went public on 6/26/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. A significant 70% contraction in Ethena's USDe circulating supply predated StableCoinX's public debut. USDe's circulating supply had decreased by 70% from its peak of $14 billion in October 2025 to approximately $4.5 billion by June 2026, before StableCoinX (USDE) began trading on Nasdaq on June 26, 2026. This decline stemmed from a broad market deleveraging that disproportionately affected synthetic assets.
2. StableCoinX's valuation is heavily tied to its ENA token treasury, which faces market volatility. The company holds approximately 3.029 billion ENA tokens, valued at about $275 million at the time of its Nasdaq listing. This substantial holding, representing roughly 20% of ENA's total supply, directly links StableCoinX's market value to the performance and adoption of the Ethena ecosystem and ENA token pricing.
3. A broader decline in stablecoin market interest and supply growth impacted investor sentiment. Google searches for "stablecoins" dropped approximately 54% in June 2026 compared to May 2026, and 69% from its August 2025 peak, indicating a cooling retail investor interest. Concurrently, the total global stablecoin supply decreased by about $5 billion in three weeks after peaking in early June 2026, with year-to-date growth slowing to 0.23%.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USDE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.7% | 99.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.0% | -74.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USDE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.7% | 99.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.5% | -74.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USDE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 99.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.9% | -74.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USDE | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.2% | 99.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.8% | -74.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USDE Return | - | - | - | - | - | -26% | -26% |
| Peers Return | 66% | -84% | 342% | 78% | 9% | 49% | 248% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USDE Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 31% | 77% | 48% | 58% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USDE Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -85% | -49% | -54% | -58% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COIN, MSTR, RIOT, MARA, HUT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
USDE has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
USDE has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.7 |
| Rev LTM | 653 |
| Op Inc LTM | -139 |
| FCF LTM | -1,273 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -901 |
| CFO LTM | -133 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -87 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 38.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -62.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -101.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -49.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -36.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -7.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -46.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -49.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -194.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -213.3% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.71 | 5.77 | 5.67 | 5.90 | 6.64 | 5.44 |
| Up Beta | 8.13 | -10.44 | 8.19 | -9.29 | 10.84 | -7.49 |
| Down Beta | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Up Capture | -296% | -146% | -71% | -43% | -19% | -2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Down Capture | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% | -0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USDE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDE | -43.9% | 114.0% | -38.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.9% | 14.6% | 0.17 | -74.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.8% | 12.5% | 1.30 | 99.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 27.7% | 0.69 | -98.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.4% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 62.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.7% | 0.65 | -41.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.0% | 42.6% | -1.28 | -18.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USDE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDE | -10.9% | 114.0% | -38.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.6% | 18.6% | 0.44 | -74.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 99.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.4% | 18.3% | 0.77 | -98.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.8% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 62.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.05 | -41.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.9% | 53.7% | 0.41 | -18.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USDE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDE | -5.6% | 114.0% | -38.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.5% | 22.2% | 0.56 | -74.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 99.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.1% | 0.60 | -98.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.6% | 18.0% | 0.24 | 62.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | -41.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 56.6% | 66.3% | 0.97 | -18.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Diversified Capital Markets Resources |
| International Financing Review (IFR) |
| Financial News |
| Global Capital |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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