United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $95.09 | Market Cap: $80.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $95.09Market Cap: $80.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UPS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for United Parcel Service (UPS) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. UPS's Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations: UPS reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $1.31 to $1.32. Consolidated revenues also exceeded projections, reaching $21.4 billion against a forecast of $20.84 billion. This strong performance was a major catalyst for the stock's surge.
2. Aggressive Cost-Cutting and "Efficiency Reimagined" Initiative: The company's profitability was significantly boosted by aggressive cost-cutting measures, including the reduction of nearly 50,000 jobs (34,000 operational and 14,000 white-collar positions) and the closure of 93 leased and owned buildings during the first nine months of 2025. UPS stated it achieved $2.2 billion in cost savings year-to-date and expects to finish 2025 with $3.5 billion in savings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UPS Return | 49% | 30% | -15% | -6% | -16% | -20% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 48% | 21% | -29% | 66% | 18% | 9% | 170% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UPS Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 58% | 35% | 65% | 52% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UPS Max Drawdown | -26% | -8% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -8% | -41% | -5% | -10% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 584 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX
In The Past
United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | UPS | United Parcel Service | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | -0.8% | -9.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | UPS | United Parcel Service | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | -0.8% | -9.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 145.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.6 |
| Rev LTM | 49,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,600 |
| FCF LTM | 2,232 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,146 |
| CFO LTM | 4,257 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,627 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 16.1 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shi Christiana Smith | 8262025 | Buy | 88.17 | 500 | 44,084 | 44,084 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
