Tearsheet

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $95.09 | Market Cap: $80.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

United Parcel Service (UPS)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $95.09
Market Cap: $80.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Future of Freight. Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UPS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for United Parcel Service (UPS) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. UPS's Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations: UPS reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $1.31 to $1.32. Consolidated revenues also exceeded projections, reaching $21.4 billion against a forecast of $20.84 billion. This strong performance was a major catalyst for the stock's surge.

2. Aggressive Cost-Cutting and "Efficiency Reimagined" Initiative: The company's profitability was significantly boosted by aggressive cost-cutting measures, including the reduction of nearly 50,000 jobs (34,000 operational and 14,000 white-collar positions) and the closure of 93 leased and owned buildings during the first nine months of 2025. UPS stated it achieved $2.2 billion in cost savings year-to-date and expects to finish 2025 with $3.5 billion in savings.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UPS Return49%30%-15%-6%-16%-20%4%
Peers Return48%21%-29%66%18%9%170%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UPS Win Rate67%58%67%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%58%35%65%52%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UPS Max Drawdown-26%-8%-24%-20%-20%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-8%-41%-5%-10%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX. See UPS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUPSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven125 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven584 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, FDX, EXPD, XPO, KNX


In The Past

United Parcel Service's stock fell -41.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2022. A -41.9% loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About United Parcel Service (UPS)

Better Bets than United Parcel Service (UPS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
UPS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023UPSUnited Parcel ServiceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%-0.8%-9.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for United Parcel Service

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Mkt Price94.76229.11274.05150.50140.8550.75145.68
Mkt Cap80.42,437.064.720.516.68.242.6
Rev LTM89,483670,03888,59111,2738,0677,47849,932
Op Inc LTM8,21876,1906,0841,1167063213,600
FCF LTM4,39613,4813,654810232-622,232
FCF 3Y Avg4,77121,6773,1871,104-206-22,146
CFO LTM8,463121,1377,5658629498184,257
CFO 3Y Avg9,61396,9778,1021,1528089474,627

Growth & Margins

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%10.9%1.1%23.7%-0.3%-0.0%0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.9%11.3%-2.2%-12.5%38.4%0.1%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%13.3%3.1%8.7%2.8%2.7%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.9%3.0%0.8%1.9%0.7%0.7%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM9.2%11.4%6.9%9.9%8.8%4.3%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.5%7.9%6.7%10.1%8.0%4.8%7.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%18.1%8.5%7.6%11.8%10.9%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%15.8%9.2%10.1%10.1%13.1%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.9%2.0%4.1%7.2%2.9%-0.8%3.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%3.5%3.6%9.7%-2.6%-0.0%3.6%

Valuation

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
Mkt Cap80.42,437.064.720.516.68.242.6
P/S0.83.50.61.41.90.91.1
P/EBIT9.027.48.513.922.918.316.1
P/E12.933.113.018.345.945.125.7
P/CFO8.419.37.118.116.17.812.2
Total Yield15.4%3.0%10.2%6.8%2.2%3.6%5.2%
Dividend Yield7.6%0.0%2.5%1.3%0.0%1.4%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%1.1%5.2%6.4%-1.8%-0.1%2.9%
D/E0.40.10.70.00.30.50.3
Net D/E0.30.00.6-0.00.20.50.3

Returns

UPSAMZNFDXEXPDXPOKNXMedian
NameUnited P.Amazon.c.FedEx Expedito.XPO Knight-S. 
1M Rtn3.4%-8.1%8.8%11.5%0.1%13.3%6.1%
3M Rtn14.1%-2.8%22.4%24.4%7.7%15.1%14.6%
6M Rtn1.4%10.2%28.1%36.1%20.7%15.9%18.3%
12M Rtn-21.4%5.0%-1.0%25.7%-9.2%-9.1%-5.1%
3Y Rtn-39.1%151.7%65.8%39.5%292.6%-5.5%52.7%
1M Excs Rtn2.1%-9.4%7.5%10.2%-1.1%12.0%4.8%
3M Excs Rtn7.6%-7.2%15.3%19.3%1.8%11.9%9.7%
6M Excs Rtn-14.1%-5.3%12.6%20.7%5.3%0.5%2.9%
12M Excs Rtn-37.8%-4.7%-18.9%12.0%-22.2%-25.3%-20.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-113.6%74.6%-8.6%-35.1%200.6%-77.2%-21.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment90,958    
International Package 19,69819,54115,94514,220
Supply Chain Solutions 16,43117,42915,18413,381
United States (U.S.) Domestic Package 64,20960,31753,49946,493
Total90,958100,33897,28784,62874,094


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,418,756
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.8%
Average Daily Volume6,982,771
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.78
Basic Shares Quantity848,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Shi Christiana Smith 8262025Buy88.1750044,08444,084Form