Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $76.73 | Market Cap: $157.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $76.73Market Cap: $157.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 10 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Robust Q1 2026 Earnings and Positive Guidance Counterbalanced by Revenue Miss and Investment Revaluation. Uber reported strong financial results for Q1 2026, with Gross Bookings increasing 25% year-over-year (21% on a constant currency basis) to $53.7 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $52.9 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS surged 44% year-over-year to $0.72, beating consensus estimates. The company also issued an optimistic Q2 2026 guidance, forecasting Gross Bookings between $56.25 billion and $57.75 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. These positives were somewhat tempered by revenue reaching $13.2 billion, which slightly missed analyst estimates of $13.55 billion, and a significant $1.5 billion pre-tax headwind from revaluations of Uber's equity investments impacting GAAP net income.
2. Strategic Expansion into New Verticals and Growing Platform Engagement. Uber advanced its "super-app" strategy by launching hotel booking capabilities in partnership with Expedia Group in late April 2026, offering access to over 700,000 properties and providing benefits for Uber One members. The company also expanded its food-delivery services into seven new European markets in February 2026, aiming to generate an additional $1 billion in gross bookings over the next three years. This focus on diversifying offerings and expanding globally, coupled with the growth of Uber One memberships to over 50 million worldwide, helped underpin investor confidence and maintain stock stability by broadening its addressable market and deepening user engagement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.1% change in UBER stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.05 | 76.73 | -4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,610 | 53,687 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.5% | 15.9% | -52.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 18.4 | 83.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,084 | 2,052 | 1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 42.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 30.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.5% change in UBER stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.50 | 76.73 | -20.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,331 | 53,687 | 13.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.7% | 15.9% | -40.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 18.4 | 15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,091 | 2,052 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -20.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.9% | 32.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in UBER stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.01 | 76.73 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,978 | 53,687 | 22.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.4% | 15.9% | -29.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 18.4 | 6.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,106 | 2,052 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 40.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 34.4% | 37.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 147.1% change in UBER stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.05 | 76.73 | 147.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,877 | 53,687 | 68.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 2.9 | 50.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,995 | 2,052 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 147.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UBER | 147.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 46.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 82.0% | 46.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UBER Return | -18% | -41% | 149% | -2% | 35% | -3% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -37% | 37% | 13% | 22% | 7% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UBER Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 37% | 55% | 55% | 63% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UBER Max Drawdown | -30% | -51% | 0% | -6% | 0% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -43% | -10% | -21% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LYFT, DASH, CHRW, RXO, JBHT. See UBER Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UBER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -63.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Uber Technologies's stock fell -20.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | UBER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -63.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Uber Technologies's stock fell -20.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Uber Technologies (UBER)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Uber Technologies (UBER):
- It's like an Amazon for on-demand transportation and local delivery services.
- Think of it as an Expedia for booking ground transportation and local delivery solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Ridesharing/Ride-hailing: Connects consumers with independent drivers for transportation services in various vehicles.
- Meal Delivery: Enables consumers to order meals from local restaurants for pickup or delivery (Uber Eats).
- Grocery & Other Goods Delivery: Provides delivery services for groceries, alcohol, convenience store items, and select other goods.
- Freight Logistics: Connects carriers with shippers on its platform, offering transparent pricing and booking for freight shipments and other logistics services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlUber Technologies (UBER) primarily sells to individuals. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Riders: Individuals who use the Uber platform to request and receive on-demand transportation services across a variety of vehicles. These customers are served by the Mobility segment.
- Delivery Consumers: Individuals who use the Uber Eats platform to order food from restaurants, groceries, alcohol, and other convenience items for delivery or pick-up. These customers are served by the Delivery segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies (UBER) has the following major suppliers:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Dara Khosrowshahi, Chief Executive Officer
Dara Khosrowshahi joined Uber as Chief Executive Officer in August 2017. He previously served as the CEO of Expedia Group for over 12 years, from August 2005 to September 2017, where he expanded the company's global presence and oversaw key acquisitions including Travelocity, Orbitz, and HomeAway. Prior to his role at Expedia, he was the Chief Financial Officer of IAC from January 1998 to January 2005. Khosrowshahi began his career in 1991 as an analyst at the investment bank Allen & Company.
Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, Chief Financial Officer
Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Uber in November 2023. Before joining Uber, he served as CFO at Analog Devices from September 2017 to November 2023 and as CFO at WABCO Holdings from June 2014 to September 2017. During his tenure at WABCO, he led several critical corporate acquisitions and was instrumental in reshaping the company's operations and value proposition. His extensive financial experience also includes roles at Applied Materials, Visa, and United Technologies. Mahendra-Rajah currently serves on the board of directors for Shopify and The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.
Andrew Macdonald, President and Chief Operating Officer
Andrew Macdonald serves as President and Chief Operating Officer, overseeing Uber's global operations and leading initiatives focused on enhancing efficiency and customer experience. He has been pivotal in expanding Uber's global footprint and forming strategic partnerships. His career at Uber is extensive, and he also holds board positions at Lime and Careem.
Tony West, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary
Tony West is Uber's Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary, leading the company's global Legal, Compliance and Ethics, and Security functions. Prior to Uber, he was Executive Vice President Public Policy and Government Affairs, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary at PepsiCo. West also held senior positions in the Obama administration, serving as the Associate Attorney General of the United States (2012-2014) and the Assistant Attorney General of the Civil Division (2009-2012) at the U.S. Department of Justice.
Sundeep Jain, Chief Product Officer and Senior Vice President of Engineering
Sundeep Jain is the Chief Product Officer and Senior Vice President of Engineering at Uber, where he is responsible for the global Mobility and Delivery products, encompassing product management, design, data science, and product operations. Before joining Uber, Jain was the Vice President of Product Management at Google, focusing on the Search Ads group. Earlier in his career, he was a Vice President at Zynga and founded a tech startup, Aceva Technologies, Inc., which was acquired by FIS.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Uber Technologies (UBER) are:- Regulatory and Legal Challenges Regarding Worker Classification: Uber's business model heavily relies on classifying its drivers and delivery persons as independent contractors. This classification is continuously challenged by legal and regulatory bodies globally, including in the United States. Should these challenges result in reclassifying drivers as employees, Uber could face substantial increases in operational costs due to mandated benefits, minimum wage requirements, overtime pay, and other employment-related expenses. Several lawsuits and audits have already led to significant settlements and liabilities for alleged misclassification. While California's Proposition 22 aimed to solidify the independent contractor model for gig workers, its legal standing continues to be contested.
- Intense Market Competition: Uber operates in highly competitive markets across its Mobility, Delivery, and Freight segments. In ride-hailing, it faces rivals like Lyft in the U.S. and various regional players globally (e.g., DiDi Chuxing, Grab). The delivery segment, particularly Uber Eats, competes intensely with companies such as DoorDash and Grubhub. This fierce competition can lead to price wars, increased promotional spending, and lower margins, which can negatively impact Uber's profitability and market share.
- Impact of Autonomous Vehicle Technology: The advancement and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology pose a significant, long-term disruptive risk to Uber's driver-reliant business model. While Uber has explored and partnered in the AV space, successful scaling of driverless services by competitors like Waymo and Tesla could reduce the need for human drivers, fundamentally altering the ridesharing and delivery landscape. This could challenge Uber's current operating model or necessitate substantial investments and strategic adaptations to remain competitive, including potentially relying on AV fleets from other providers.
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- Autonomous ride-hailing services from competitors (e.g., Waymo, Cruise) that could scale driverless operations, directly threatening Uber's Mobility segment by offering potentially lower-cost alternatives.
- Robotic and automated delivery services from competitors (e.g., Nuro, Starship) and major retailers, which could provide more efficient and cost-effective last-mile delivery, impacting Uber's Delivery segment.
- Increasing investment by restaurants, grocers, and other merchants in their own direct-to-consumer (D2C) online ordering and delivery infrastructure, potentially reducing their reliance on third-party aggregator platforms like Uber Eats.
- Autonomous trucking technologies developed and deployed by competitors, which could disrupt the traditional freight brokerage model that Uber Freight currently leverages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies, Inc. operates across three primary segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight, each tapping into substantial addressable markets globally.
Mobility Segment (Ridesharing)
The global ride-sharing market, which encompasses Uber's Mobility segment, was valued at approximately USD 144.10 billion in 2025. This market is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated USD 659.39 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.40% during the forecast period. North America held the largest share of this market in 2025, accounting for 44.52%.
Delivery Segment (Online Food and Grocery Delivery)
Online Food Delivery: The global online food delivery market was valued at USD 319.99 billion in 2025. Experts predict this market will grow to USD 728.83 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.58% during the 2026-2034 forecast period. Asia-Pacific is a dominant region, accounting for 34% of the global market share.
Online Grocery Delivery: For online grocery delivery services, the global market was estimated at USD 909.6 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach USD 7,644.8 billion by 2034, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 25.88% from 2026 to 2034. The Asia-Pacific region currently leads this market, holding over 58.3% of the market share in 2025.
Freight Segment (Freight and Logistics)
The global logistics market, relevant to Uber's Freight segment, was valued at USD 11.23 trillion in 2025. This market is anticipated to grow to approximately USD 24.36 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.05% from 2026 to 2035. In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region represented the largest share of the global logistics market, at 44.59%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Uber Technologies (UBER) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies across its segments:
- Expansion and Diversification of Delivery Services: Uber is significantly expanding its Delivery segment beyond traditional restaurant meals into new verticals such as groceries, alcohol, convenience stores, and general retail. The company has forged strategic partnerships with major retailers like Five Below, Dollar General, and Kroger to integrate their offerings onto the Uber Eats platform, aiming to capture a larger share of the on-demand delivery market. This diversification is intended to boost overall revenue by increasing the range of goods available for delivery.
- Growth in Mobility Segment through Audience Expansion, Increased Engagement, and New Offerings: Uber is focused on increasing its Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPC) and boosting trips per active user, particularly in suburban and international markets. New mobility product offerings like Moto (two-wheeler rides) and Reserve (pre-scheduled rides), along with women-preferred and teen-focused products, are contributing to audience growth. The Uber One membership program is crucial for customer retention and increasing usage frequency, with members spending significantly more than non-members. The company is also emphasizing geographic expansion, for example, aiming to cover 70% of Germany by the end of 2024 through local partnerships.
- Development and Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and AI Integration: Uber is making substantial investments and forming strategic partnerships (e.g., with Waymo, NVIDIA, Baidu Apollo Go) in autonomous vehicle technology. AVs are viewed as a significant growth opportunity, expected to amplify the platform's strengths, generate higher utilization, and improve economics. Furthermore, Uber is leveraging AI and machine learning across its operations to enhance efficiency, improve productivity, and personalize user experiences.
- Growth of the Advertising Platform: Uber is actively developing its advertising platform, leveraging its vast user base and proprietary data to create new revenue streams. This platform surpassed a $1.5 billion annual run rate in Q1 2025, with advertising penetration in delivery exceeding 2%. This growing segment represents a direct monetization strategy from its extensive ecosystem.
- Expansion and Technological Advancements in the Uber Freight Segment: Uber Freight is poised for significant growth, particularly in Europe, where it aims to increase freight under management tenfold to 2 billion euros by 2028. The segment is also deploying an AI-Driven Logistics Network to enhance real-time decision-making, improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase profitability in logistics operations. This includes expanding into areas like long-haul trucking to address capacity shortages.
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Share Repurchases
- Uber's Board of Directors authorized its first-ever share repurchase program of up to $7.0 billion of common stock in February 2024.
- In January 2025, Uber entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to buy back $1.5 billion of shares, as part of the previously authorized $7.0 billion program. These transactions were expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2025.
- In August 2025, the company announced an additional stock repurchase authorization of up to $20 billion, bringing the total authorized buyback amount for the year to $27 billion. Uber spent $1.9 billion on share buybacks in Q4 2025.
Share Issuance
- Uber Technologies reported $0 Million in Issuance of Stock as of December 2025.
- The number of outstanding shares for Uber Technologies decreased from 2.151 billion in 2024 to 2.120 billion in 2025, reflecting a reduction consistent with share repurchases. As of March 6, 2026, the company's shares outstanding were 2.08 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2021, Uber acquired Drizly for $1.1 billion.
- In July 2021, Uber acquired Transplace for $2.25 billion.
- In May 2025, Uber acquired Trendyol Go for $700 million, securing an 85% controlling stake.
Capital Expenditures
- Uber's capital expenditures were $298 million in 2021, $252 million in 2022, $223 million in 2023, $242 million in 2024, and $336 million in 2025. Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $75.0 million.
- Forecasted capital expenditures for 2026 are $389.5 million.
- Uber maintains an "asset-light" business model, which contributes to lower capital expenditure requirements. The company approaches autonomous vehicles through a partnership-first strategy, rather than in-house development and hopes private equity will assume vehicle ownership, which affects future capital expenditure considerations.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UBER.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 03062026 | UBER | Uber Technologies | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -7.9% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 124.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.7 |
| Rev LTM | 13,428 |
| Op Inc LTM | 781 |
| FCF LTM | 1,074 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 569 |
| CFO LTM | 1,398 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,124 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.7 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.4 |
| P/EBIT | 25.7 |
| P/E | 26.4 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 25,087 | 19,832 | 14,029 | 6,953 | 6,089 |
| Delivery | 13,750 | 12,204 | 10,901 | 8,362 | 3,904 |
| Freight | 5,141 | 5,245 | 6,947 | 2,132 | 1,011 |
| All Other | 0 | 8 | 135 | ||
| Total | 43,978 | 37,281 | 31,877 | 17,455 | 11,139 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 6,497 | 4,963 | 3,299 | 1,596 | 1,169 |
| Delivery | 2,471 | 1,506 | 551 | -348 | -873 |
| Loss on lease arrangement, net | -2 | -4 | -7 | ||
| Goodwill and asset impairments/loss on sale of assets | -3 | -84 | -25 | -157 | -317 |
| Acquisition, financing and divestitures related expenses | -25 | -36 | -46 | -102 | -86 |
| Restructuring and related charges | -25 | -51 | -2 | 0 | -362 |
| Freight | -74 | -64 | 0 | -130 | -227 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -711 | -823 | -947 | -902 | -575 |
| Legal, non-income tax, and regulatory reserve changes and settlements | -1,123 | -9 | -732 | -526 | 35 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -1,796 | -1,935 | -1,793 | -1,168 | -827 |
| Corporate G&A and Platform Research and Development (R&D) | -2,410 | -2,353 | -2,137 | -1,881 | -2,136 |
| Accelerated lease costs related to cease-use of Right of use (ROU) assets | -6 | -5 | -102 | ||
| All Other | 0 | -11 | -461 | ||
| COVID-19 response initiatives | -1 | -54 | -106 | ||
| Legacy auto insurance transfer | 0 | -103 | |||
| Mass arbitration fees, net | 14 | -43 | |||
| Gain on lease arrangement, net | 0 | 5 | |||
| Total | 2,799 | 1,110 | -1,832 | -3,834 | -4,863 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $76.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 159.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/10/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $74.26 | $84.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 3.3% | -9.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Upside Capture | 102.13 | 91.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.7% | 38.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.89 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| Up Beta | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| Down Beta | -1.30 | 1.18 | 0.74 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 84% | 108% | 105% | 75% | 80% | 171% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 34 | 61 | 124 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 216% | 131% | 135% | 137% | 120% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 63 | 125 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | -14.9% | 33.3% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 32.3% | 15.6% | 1.59 | 37.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 42.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 16.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 20.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 5.9% | 45.1% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.59 | 45.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 51.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 7.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 23.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UBER | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 5.8% | 50.9% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 45.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 50.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 17.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 21.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | -5.1% | -5.7% | -3.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.6% | -8.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.5% | 6.9% | -1.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -9.3% | -6.4% | -9.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 22.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.7% | -7.3% | -2.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.7% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -6.5% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -19.7% | -23.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Gross Bookings | 52.00 Bil | 52.75 Bil | 53.50 Bil | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 53.00 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.65 | 0.69 | 0.72 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.37 Bil | 2.42 Bil | 2.47 Bil | -1.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.46 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Gross Bookings | 52.25 Bil | 53.00 Bil | 53.75 Bil | 8.2% | Raised | Guidance: 49.00 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.41 Bil | 2.46 Bil | 2.51 Bil | 9.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.24 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krishnamurthy, Nikki | SVP and Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 74.45 | 30,000 | 2,233,605 | 34,304,897 | Form |
| 2 | Krishnamurthy, Balaji (a) | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 2242026 | 71.25 | 22,453 | 1,599,780 | 2,047,872 | Form |
| 3 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 1212026 | 83.50 | 3,125 | 260,938 | 14,744,764 | Form |
| 4 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 80.36 | 3,125 | 251,125 | 14,096,992 | Form |
| 5 | West, Tony | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 92.10 | 3,125 | 287,812 | 16,037,833 | Form |
UBER Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Score of 8 (Accumulate) is assigned due to a highly favorable risk/reward skew, supported by a widening competitive moat and strong, durable momentum in its core business drivers. The company is successfully executing a pivot to a profitable, FCF-generative model, which justifies its premium valuation. The primary risks are structural and longer-term, while the catalysts for earnings growth are materializing now.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'Uber's narrative has shifted from a cash-burning, growth-at-all-costs disruptor to a disciplined, profitable platform generating substantial and growing free cash flow ($9.8B TTM). This aligns perfectly with the 'Profit Pivot' archetype, where the investment thesis is driven by margin expansion and FCF yield, not just hypergrowth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver of value creation is the successful scaling of two high-margin, ecosystem-locking initiatives: the Uber One membership program and the burgeoning advertising business. Uber One creates a high-frequency, sticky user base that drives cross-platform usage, while the advertising layer monetizes the platform's massive user base with minimal incremental cost, structurally improving the company's margin profile.
- The Uber One membership program has surpassed 50 million members, who now account for half of all Mobility and Delivery Gross Bookings.
- The high-margin advertising business is already operating at a $2 billion annualized revenue run-rate.
- Non-GAAP EPS grew 44% in Q1 2026 on the back of 21% Gross Bookings growth, demonstrating significant operating leverage as these high-margin layers scale.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant structural risk to the investment thesis is adverse regulatory action in key markets, such as the EU or US, that reclassifies drivers from independent contractors to employees. This is not a cyclical or temporary issue, but a fundamental threat to the company's current cost structure and unit economics.
- The EU Platform Work Directive, which entered into force in December 2024, creates a 'rebuttable presumption' of employment status, shifting the burden of proof onto platforms like Uber.
- Uber recorded a $479 million charge in Q3 2025 for legal and governmental investigation-related issues, quantifying the ongoing financial impact of this friction.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Bookings Growth (YoY, Constant Currency) | > 18% | This is the 'North Star' metric for platform health. Sustained growth above this level validates the network effect and user engagement, justifying a premium valuation. |
| Operating Margin as a % of Gross Bookings | Sequential Expansion | This metric tracks the core profitability of the platform, stripping out revenue recognition noise. Continuous expansion is the primary evidence that the 'Profit Pivot' thesis is on track. |
| Uber One Member Penetration | Continued growth from 50M base | Growth in this high-LTV cohort is a leading indicator of future booking frequency, user retention, and the strength of the platform's ecosystem moat. |
Margin Expansion vs. Regulatory Annihilation
BULL VIEW
Uber One (50M+ members) and a $2B ad business are scaling, driving significant operating leverage and FCF, making regulatory costs a manageable headwind.
CORE TENSION
The core debate is whether Uber's high-margin growth drivers (Uber One, Ads) can outpace the structural threat of driver reclassification, which could destroy its cost model.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The NEUTRAL verdict stands as Q1 showed strong Gross Bookings growth (+21%) and FCF ($2.3B), but tangible risks like the EU Directive (H2'26 timeline) create a stalemate.
BEAR VIEW
The EU's Platform Work Directive creates a 'rebuttable presumption' of employment, a fundamental threat to Uber's asset-light model and margin structure in key markets.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
H2 2026 | EU Member State Transposes Platform Work Directive Watch: Headline: Watch if a major country (Germany, France) adopts a strict 'presumption of employment' standard, signaling high future compliance costs and margin pressure. |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Uber Freight Segment Operating Income. Needs to show improvement from the -$30M loss in Q1 2026 to prove it's not a permanent drag on profitability. |
Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Operating Margin as a % of Gross Bookings. Needs to show sequential expansion to confirm the profit pivot thesis remains intact amid macro and regulatory pressures. |
Next 30-90 Days | Monthly Consumer Data Releases Watch: U.S. Personal Savings Rate and Consumer Credit reports. Continued degradation from the 4.0% savings rate (Q1'26) signals weakening discretionary spend. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
November 20, 2025 | UK Legal Action Over AI Driver Pay Details: Worker Info Exchange (WIE) initiated legal action, alleging Uber's AI-driven pay system breaches GDPR and has reduced driver income, a direct threat to its operational model. | Stock crashed -6.90% $89.53 -> $83.36 |
February 4, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Details: Stock fell despite 20% YoY revenue growth. GAAP Net Income was hit by a $1.6B pre-tax headwind from equity investment revaluations, highlighting earnings volatility. | Stock plummeted -5.15% $77.93 -> $73.92 |
March 10, 2026 | Fraudulent Driver Account Investigation Details: CBS News reported on mounting allegations of stolen identities used for fraudulent driver accounts, raising passenger safety concerns and prompting proposed legislation. Stock reaction was muted. | Slight -1.99% pullback $73.84 -> $72.36 |
May 6, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Details: Despite missing revenue estimates, stock surged on Gross Bookings of $53.7B (+25% YoY) beating expectations. Strong Q2 guidance provided, signaling robust operational health. | Stock surged +8.53% $72.95 -> $79.17 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate (2.4x S&P), not explosive. While the moat is widening, the Neutral sentiment and premium valuation prevent an aggressive stance. Capping size at Normal (4-6%) balances strong FCF generation against significant regulatory risks.
Diversification Alternatives
NVT
SECTORnVent offers exposure to secular electrification and data center trends, a non-consumer-facing thesis that avoids Uber's regulatory and discretionary spending risks.
NXT
SECTORNextracker is a market leader in the secular growth of solar energy, offering a pure-play on renewables capex, which is fundamentally uncorrelated to Uber's gig-economy risks.
Uber is re-rating from a cash-burning, gig-economy disruptor to a disciplined, profitable global logistics platform, driven by the network effects between its massive user base and a growing multi-modal service offering.
Filter all news through the lens of profitable platform growth and the expansion of the Uber One membership flywheel.
Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) growth >+15% YoY; Uber One membership reaching new milestones (e.g., 60 million+); sustained double-digit Gross Bookings growth in both Mobility and Delivery segments; Freight segment returning to sustained profitability; expansion of autonomous vehicle partnerships into new cities.
Deceleration in MAPC or Gross Bookings growth below +15%; significant regulatory changes impacting driver classification or take rates; major data breaches eroding user trust; a scaled, direct-to-consumer competitor in the autonomous vehicle space emerges, bypassing Uber's network.
Short-term fluctuations in driver supply; minor changes in take rate due to business model adjustments in specific regions; competitive announcements from smaller, non-scaled players; quarterly GAAP net income volatility due to equity investment revaluations.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the company's demonstrated ability to generate significant and growing free cash flow ($2.3 billion in Q1 2026) while sustaining 20%+ Gross Bookings growth. This is fueled by the success of the Uber One membership program, which surpassed 50 million members who now account for half of all Mobility and Delivery Gross Bookings, creating a powerful, high-retention user base.
Mobility (Ride-Sharing)
$6.8B TTM (51% of Total) · 34% MarginWhat It Is
On-demand ride-sharing services connecting riders with drivers, including options like UberX, Uber Green, Uber Comfort, and premium services like Uber Black and Uber Elite.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for convenient, on-demand transportation. The primary value proposition is reduced wait times and broad availability, driven by Uber's massive network of drivers. Switching costs are low, but the network effect (more drivers = lower wait times for riders; more riders = less downtime for drivers) creates a powerful moat.
Competition
Delivery (Uber Eats)
$5.1B TTM (38% of Total) · 34% MarginWhat It Is
On-demand delivery of restaurant meals, groceries, alcohol, and retail goods through the Uber Eats app.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for the convenience of on-demand delivery. Restaurants and merchants pay a commission to access Uber's large consumer base and delivery network. The value proposition is selection, speed, and reliability.
Competition
Freight
$1.3B TTM (10% of Total) · 34% MarginWhat It Is
A logistics platform that connects shippers with carriers, offering services like real-time pricing and booking for freight transportation.
Who Pays & How
Shippers pay to move goods via Uber's network of trucking carriers. Carriers use the platform to find loads and reduce empty miles. The value is in creating a more efficient and transparent marketplace.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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