Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $401.04 | Market Cap: $1.3 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $401.04Market Cap: $1.3 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 230x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 341x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 230x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 341x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Miss in Q1 2026 Vehicle Deliveries and Rising Inventory. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, falling short of Wall Street's consensus estimate of 365,645 vehicles. More notably, the company produced 408,386 vehicles, resulting in over 50,000 unsold vehicles added to inventory, indicating softening demand and an unusual build-up for Tesla.
2. Mounting Concerns over High Capital Expenditures for AI Initiatives. Analysts have raised alarms regarding Tesla's substantial planned investments in future AI projects, particularly the "Terafab" domestic semiconductor facility and the expansion of its Robotaxi and Optimus programs. Barclays estimates the Terafab project alone could cost in the "mid-single digit trillion-dollar range" if fully realized, an expenditure not included in the already elevated 2026 capital expenditure guidance of over $20 billion. This heavy investment is seen as potentially impacting future free cash flow and profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.9% change in TSLA stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 449.72 | 400.62 | -10.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,633 | 94,827 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 4.0% | -24.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 285.7 | 341.2 | 19.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,227 | 3,231 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -10.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 65.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.8% | 70.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.9% change in TSLA stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 444.72 | 400.62 | -9.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,720 | 94,827 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 4.0% | -36.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 243.8 | 341.2 | 39.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,223 | 3,231 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 64.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.7% | 73.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.6% change in TSLA stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 192.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 259.16 | 400.62 | 54.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 97,690 | 94,827 | -2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.3% | 4.0% | -45.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 116.7 | 341.2 | 192.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,212 | 3,231 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 54.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 69.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.7% | 80.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 93.1% change in TSLA stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 555.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 207.46 | 400.62 | 93.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,462 | 94,827 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 4.0% | -74.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.1 | 341.2 | 555.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,160 | 3,231 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 93.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 93.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.7% | 77.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 11% | -14% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 82% | -56% | -1% | -18% | 36% | -17% | -26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 87% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -20% | -69% | -12% | -43% | -45% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -62% | -34% | -38% | -31% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 198 days | 120 days |
Compare to GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Tesla (TSLA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Tesla (TSLA):
- It's like Apple for electric vehicles.
- Think of it as Amazon for cars and home energy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electric Vehicles: Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells sedans and sport utility vehicles.
- Automotive Regulatory Credits: The company sells automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers.
- Vehicle Services & Financing: Tesla provides non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, vehicle insurance, purchase financing, and leasing services.
- Solar Energy Systems: Tesla designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases solar energy generation products.
- Energy Storage Systems: The company designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases energy storage products.
- Energy Product Services: Tesla offers service, repairs, and various financing options for its solar and energy storage customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tesla (TSLA) sells primarily to individuals for its automotive products, though its energy segment serves both individuals and various types of organizations. Based on the company description, here are the major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals who purchase or lease Tesla's electric vehicles (sedans and SUVs) for personal use. It also covers residential customers who acquire Tesla's solar energy generation products (solar panels) and energy storage systems (e.g., Powerwall) for their homes.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This category encompasses various businesses, from commercial enterprises to large industrial operations, that purchase Tesla's energy storage products (such as Powerpack and Megapack) and solar solutions for their facilities. While less explicitly detailed for vehicles, some businesses may also acquire Tesla vehicles for their corporate fleets.
- Utility Companies: Electric utility providers form a distinct customer category for Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, particularly for large-scale energy storage projects (e.g., Megapack installations) designed to support grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance overall power management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
Elon Musk is the CEO and a Director of Tesla. He co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, which was sold to Compaq in 1999. He also co-founded X.com, which merged to form PayPal, later acquired by eBay in 2002. Musk became an early investor in Tesla in 2004 and assumed leadership as CEO and product architect in 2008. His other ventures include founding SpaceX, The Boring Company, X Corp (formerly Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI. He was also the primary financial backer of SolarCity, which Tesla acquired in 2016.
Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja serves as Tesla's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Tesla in 2017 as Assistant Corporate Controller and steadily rose through the ranks, becoming Corporate Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and then CFO in August 2023. Prior to joining Tesla, he was the Corporate Controller at SolarCity, a solar energy company acquired by Tesla in 2016. Taneja also spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in both India and the United States.
Tom Zhu, Senior Vice President, Automotive
Tom Zhu is the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, overseeing global automotive operations, including assembly plants and sales. He joined Tesla in 2014, initially leading the charging network development in China, and later served as the General Manager for Tesla in China. Zhu was instrumental in the rapid construction of Gigafactory Shanghai. Before his tenure at Tesla, he co-founded Kaibo Engineering Group Corp. and worked as a project manager, advising Chinese contractors on infrastructure projects in Africa.
Lars Moravy, Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy holds the position of Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla. He joined the company in 2010. His roles at Tesla have included Director, Chassis Dynamics Engineering, and Senior Director, Chassis Dynamics and Vehicle Test Engineering. Moravy previously worked as a Suspension Design Engineer III, Chassis Design for Honda R&D. He leads a substantial team responsible for all aspects of Tesla vehicle hardware design, testing, validation, development, manufacturing, and supporting engineering tools.
Ashok Elluswamy, Vice President of AI
Ashok Elluswamy is Tesla's Vice President of AI and leads the company's Autopilot software team. He was the first engineer hired for the Autopilot team in 2014. Elluswamy holds a Master of Science degree in Robotic Systems Development from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor's degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the College of Engineering, Guindy. His prior experience includes working as a Software Engineer at WABCO Vehicle Control Systems and a research internship at Volkswagen Electronic Research Lab, where he contributed to autonomous driving projects.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Tesla's business:
- Intensifying Competition and Margin Erosion: Tesla faces significant challenges from intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from established automakers and new entrants from China, such as BYD. This heightened competition has led to price cuts, declining market share, and reduced profitability for Tesla's core automotive business. For instance, Tesla reported significant declines in revenue and net income in Q1 2025, with revenue decreasing 9% year-over-year and net income falling 71%, largely attributed to reduced vehicle deliveries and lower average selling prices due to increased competition. Tesla's market share in the U.S. declined to 43.5% in Q1 2025 from 60% in 2020, and European sales also experienced a significant downturn. The company's operational margin dropped to 8.2% in Q4 2023 from 16% in Q4 2022, a decrease driven in part by intense competition and significant price cuts impacting profit margins.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Safety Concerns related to Autonomous Driving (FSD/Autopilot): Tesla's advanced driver-assistance systems, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), are under ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to numerous incidents involving crashes, traffic violations, and concerns about their safety and advertised capabilities. These investigations cover millions of vehicles and have led to recalls, such as nearly 2 million U.S. vehicles in December 2023 following an NHTSA investigation into approximately 1,000 crashes involving its Autopilot system. There are concerns about FSD's ability to detect and respond appropriately in challenging environmental conditions, and reports of vehicles running red lights or steering against traffic. Legal and regulatory actions could lead to mandatory safety retrofits, litigation costs, reputational damage, and delays in the deployment of robotaxi services, which are crucial for Tesla's future valuation and growth narrative.
- Dependence on Elon Musk and Associated Reputational/Governance Risks: The success and public perception of Tesla are closely tied to its CEO, Elon Musk. His personal actions, political involvement, and divided attention across multiple ventures are increasingly seen as a liability for the company. Reports suggest that Musk's controversial statements and political alignment have alienated a significant portion of Tesla's core customer base, impacting sales in key markets like Europe and China. Critics also highlight concerns about Tesla's corporate governance structure, with the board largely composed of individuals with deep ties to Musk, raising questions about independent oversight. The company's reliance on Musk for strategic direction and investor confidence poses a significant risk if his focus is diverted or his reputation continues to negatively impact the brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intensified competition from a growing number of legacy automakers and new entrants releasing a wide range of competitive electric vehicles. This directly challenges Tesla's market share, pricing power, and perceived technological lead in a rapidly maturing EV market.
2. The increasing adoption of Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other major automakers, which, while beneficial for the EV industry, erodes Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network advantage, a key differentiator and competitive moat.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Tesla's Main Products and Services
Automotive Segment (Electric Vehicles)
The global electric vehicle (EV) market was estimated at approximately USD 1,328.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,523.97 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32.5% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global EV market at USD 988.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 10.82% from 2026 to 2035. Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024. In February 2026, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units.Energy Generation and Storage Segment
Solar Energy
The global solar energy market was valued at approximately USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global solar power market size was valued at USD 273 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 436.36 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Global solar installations reached nearly 600 GW in 2024. The installed base of the solar energy market is expected to grow from 2.35 Terawatt in 2025 to 7.25 Terawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 19.91% over 2026-2031.Energy Storage Systems
The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034. Alternatively, the global energy storage systems market size was estimated at USD 222,787.5 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 512,407.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030. The global battery energy storage system (BESS) market alone is projected to grow from USD 50.81 billion in 2025 to USD 105.96 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.8%.AI Analysis | Feedback
For Tesla (TSLA), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Energy Generation and Storage Products: Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, encompassing products like Megapack and Powerwall, is consistently cited as a significant growth area. The company has reported record deployments and a robust backlog for these products, with management anticipating increasing deployments. This segment is expected to contribute a growing portion of high-margin revenue.
- Growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Subscriptions: Tesla is actively transitioning its Full Self-Driving system to a subscription-based model. This strategic shift aims to generate recurring, high-margin software revenue by leveraging its substantial installed vehicle base and advancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
- Launch and Scaling of Robotaxi Service (Cybercab): The introduction and expansion of a dedicated Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab, are considered major catalysts for future revenue. Production of the Cybercab is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with expectations for it to become a high-volume model over the longer term. This service will be closely tied to the monetization of Tesla's autonomy software.
- Introduction of a More Affordable Electric Vehicle: Tesla plans to launch a more affordable electric vehicle, potentially priced around $25,000. This new model is expected to significantly broaden the company's customer base globally and drive substantial vehicle sales volume, especially in markets with increasing competition and demand for lower-priced EVs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Tesla has not made significant company-led share repurchases in the last 3-5 years, with buyback yields indicating minimal to no activity in this area.
Share Issuance
- Tesla's shares outstanding have generally increased between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 3.386 billion in December 2021 to 3.528 billion in December 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Tesla revealed plans to invest approximately $2 billion into xAI, an artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk.
- This investment is intended to enhance Tesla's capability to develop and deploy AI products and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Tesla's capital expenditures have shown substantial growth, with approximately $6.514 billion in 2021, $7.163 billion in 2022, $8.899 billion in 2023, and peaking at $11.342 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures are reported around $8.5 billion.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $20 billion in 2026, with a primary focus on expanding manufacturing facilities for new products like Cybertruck and Semi, developing battery cell technologies, scaling AI initiatives and infrastructure (including the Dojo supercomputer), and ramping up Optimus robot production.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TSLA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 04302025 | TSLA | Tesla | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 63.6% | 31.8% | -2.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 36.2 |
| Rev LTM | 50,107 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1,814 |
| FCF LTM | -359 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,951 |
| CFO LTM | 7,163 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,820 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -27.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -13.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 36.2 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | -3.1 |
| P/EBIT | -2.9 |
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/CFO | 0.8 |
| Total Yield | -6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.1% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 57.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $400.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,294.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $390.33 | $398.79 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.2% | 48.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.67 | 0.90 |
| Upside Capture | 145.61 | 196.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.4% | 55.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.99 | 1.83 | 1.79 | 2.10 | 2.03 | 2.25 |
| Up Beta | 1.86 | 2.30 | 2.63 | 2.73 | 2.23 | 2.24 |
| Down Beta | 2.15 | 2.38 | 2.06 | 2.10 | 1.82 | 2.18 |
| Up Capture | 236% | 160% | 117% | 206% | 361% | 2457% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 30 | 63 | 132 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 164% | 148% | 164% | 174% | 144% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 33 | 63 | 119 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 69.7% | 48.9% | 1.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 28.4% | 19.5% | 1.16 | 74.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.32 | 58.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.9% | 27.5% | 1.49 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.40 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 0.93 | 19.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -7.8% | 42.6% | -0.08 | 37.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 13.0% | 59.1% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.2% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 76.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 57.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 18.8% | 0.14 | 33.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.2% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 32.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 38.5% | 58.9% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.1% | 22.0% | 0.55 | 63.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 49.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/2/2026 | -2.6% | -3.1% | |
| 10/2/2025 | -5.1% | -4.5% | -4.2% |
| 7/2/2025 | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| 4/2/2025 | 5.3% | -17.4% | 4.5% |
| 1/2/2025 | -6.1% | -2.2% | -5.0% |
| 10/2/2024 | -3.5% | -5.2% | -0.2% |
| 7/2/2024 | 10.2% | 25.0% | 10.6% |
| 4/2/2024 | 1.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 5.1% | 23.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.0% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 26.1% | 81.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -17.4% | -24.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 AI Training Compute Capacity | 2 | ||||||
| 2026 Megapack 3 Manufacturing Capacity | 50.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Megapack 3 Manufacturing Capacity | 50.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 1062026 | 445.40 | 60,000 | 26,723,781 | 257,007,505 | Form | |
| 2 | Musk, Kimbal | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 450.66 | 56,820 | 25,606,501 | 627,145,216 | Form | |
| 3 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 443.93 | 2,637 | 1,170,635 | 6,107,104 | Form |
| 4 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 9172025 | 422.68 | 60,000 | 25,360,800 | 269,260,263 | Form | |
| 5 | Musk, Elon | CEO | Trust | Buy | 9152025 | 389.28 | 2,568,732 | 999,959,042 | 160,914,364,612 | Form |
TSLA Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock has a deeply unfavorable risk/reward skew. The core automotive business, the primary driver of revenue and profit, faces an eroding moat due to intense competition and a significant inventory overhang that threatens margins. This structural decay is not offset by the nascent growth in the Energy segment. Compounding this, the stock trades at a speculative valuation that is completely disconnected from its current negative growth and operational challenges. The combination of an eroding moat, negative asymmetry, and a speculative price makes this a structural avoid.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot' (Primary) / Type D: 'Binary Innovator' (Secondary)Tesla's core automotive business is exhibiting slowing growth and margin compression, characteristic of a former high-flyer. The company's strategic focus and the bull thesis have pivoted entirely to capitalizing on the high-margin Energy segment and monetizing future technologies like AI and Robotics (FSD, Robotaxi), which aligns with the 'Transition' archetype (70%). The valuation, however, is not based on current cash flows but on the successful outcome of these high-risk, high-reward innovations, giving it a 'Binary Innovator' quality (30%).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is a structural shift in profitability and valuation multiple, driven by a revenue mix-shift away from the decelerating, lower-margin automotive business towards the high-margin Energy Generation & Storage segment and the long-term, high-multiple potential of monetizing the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software stack through subscriptions and a commercial Robotaxi fleet.
- The Energy segment's gross margin was 29.8% in FY2025, significantly higher than the Automotive segment's 16.2%.
- The Energy segment's share of revenue is growing, increasing from 6.2% in FY2023 to 13.5% in FY2025.
- Morgan Stanley identifies scaling an unsupervised robotaxi fleet as the single 'most important catalyst' for the stock.
- Baird analysts cite Energy segment growth and robotaxi announcements as key 2026 catalysts.
PRIMARY RISK
A structural decline in demand for Tesla's core automotive products, evidenced by a record inventory build and intense price competition, is forcing price cuts that severely compress gross margins. This erosion of profitability in the core business, which still accounts for over 70% of revenue, jeopardizes the cash flow required to fund the long-term AI and Energy initiatives central to the bull thesis.
- A record inventory surplus of 50,363 vehicles was recorded in Q1 2026, indicating production is significantly outpacing demand.
- Automotive gross margins fell from 26.5% in 2022 to a run-rate of 16.2% in 2025, with Q4 2025 at 17.9%.
- Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,023 missed analyst consensus, signaling demand softness.
- In 2025, competitor BYD surpassed Tesla as the world's largest EV maker.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits) | Stabilization >18% | This is the primary indicator of whether Tesla can defend profitability in its core business against intense competition. A drop below this level signals the anti-alpha thesis is materializing. |
| Vehicle Inventory (Production vs. Deliveries) | <10,000 units/quarter | The current 50,000+ unit glut is the biggest near-term risk. This KPI tracks whether the company can rebalance supply and demand, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing margins. |
| Energy Storage Deployed Growth (YoY) | >+25% YoY | This measures the execution of the Alpha Driver. For the pivot thesis to work, the Energy segment must grow rapidly enough to meaningfully change the company's revenue and margin mix. |
The Profitability Pivot vs. The Automotive Collapse
BULL VIEW
The shift to high-margin Energy (29.8% GM) and future FSD/Robotaxi revenue will make the current auto slowdown irrelevant, justifying a tech valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-margin Energy/AI segments grow fast enough to offset the structural decay, margin compression, and demand saturation in the core Automotive business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Q1 2026 results showed a record inventory surplus of 50,363 vehicles and a miss on delivery consensus, signaling that production is significantly outpacing demand.
BEAR VIEW
The core auto business (73% of revenue) is breaking. A record inventory glut (50K+ units) and price wars will crush margins, starving the pivot of cash.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
April 22, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call & Guidance Watch: Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits). Watch for a break below 17%, vs the 17.9% reported in Q4 2025, and management's plan to clear the 50k+ vehicle inventory. |
Anytime (Q2-Q3 2026) | NHTSA Decision on FSD Engineering Analysis Watch: Formal recall order issued for the Full Self-Driving system. This is a binary headline event. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Energy Storage Deployed Growth (YoY). Needs to re-accelerate above +25% YoY to show the 'pivot' thesis is intact after the Q1 miss. |
Early July 2026 | Q2 2026 EU & China Sales Data Watch: Tesla market share change vs. BYD in key European markets. Watch for signs of accelerating share loss. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite a positive stock reaction, the report contained early signs of margin pressure that would become the central theme in subsequent quarters. | Rose significantly by 2.3% $438.97 -> $448.98 |
Dec 15, 2025 | Supplier Warns on 4680 Battery Ramp Details: Key battery material supplier L&F Co. wrote down its cathode supply deal by over 99%, citing reduced demand due to the Cybertruck's slow ramp. | Rose significantly by 3.6% $458.96 -> $475.31 |
Jan 2, 2026 | Q4 2025 Deliveries & BYD Surpasses Tesla Details: The report confirmed FY2025 deliveries fell 8.6% YoY. News solidified that competitor BYD surpassed Tesla as the world's largest EV maker in 2025. | Fell notably by 2.6% $449.72 -> $438.07 |
Jan 28, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q4 Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits) of 17.9%. While a sequential improvement, the stock fell on concerns about future demand and slowing growth. | Fell notably by 3.5% $431.46 -> $416.56 |
Mar 18, 2026 | NHTSA Escalates FSD Investigation Details: The NHTSA upgraded its probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving system to an 'Engineering Analysis' covering 3.2 million vehicles, the final step before a potential recall. | Slight -1.6% pullback $399.27 -> $392.78 |
Apr 2, 2026 | Q1 2026 Production & Deliveries Report Details: Tesla reported 358,023 deliveries, missing consensus of ~365K, and a record inventory build of 50,363 units, sparking concerns over weakening demand. | Plummeted 5.4% $381.26 -> $360.59 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.3x S&P). The combination of Bearish sentiment, a broken moat, speculative valuation, and Low near-term visibility forces a Conservative sizing to manage risk.
Diversification Alternatives
RACE
SECTORUnlike TSLA, Ferrari has a fortress-like moat via brand and scarcity, giving it immense pricing power and predictable margins. It is insulated from the mass-market EV price war.
HYMTF
INDUSTRYHyundai offers a competitive and broad EV/Hybrid lineup at a rational valuation. It avoids TSLA's binary bet on autonomy and trades at a fraction of the P/E multiple.
Tesla is transitioning from a high-growth electric vehicle manufacturer into a diversified AI, robotics, and energy company, where the high-margin Energy division is emerging as the primary profit engine amid slowing automotive demand.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI & Energy pivot; automotive delivery numbers are becoming a less critical indicator of future value than Energy segment margins and FSD/Robotaxi adoption milestones.
Energy storage deployments >+25% YoY; Energy gross margin sustained above 25%; tangible progress in scaling an unsupervised Robotaxi fleet; material revenue recognition from FSD subscriptions.
Sustained decline in automotive gross margins below 15%; major delays or regulatory roadblocks for Robotaxi/FSD rollout; significant inventory build-up in vehicles (>30,000 units/quarter); Energy segment growth decelerating below 20% YoY.
Quarter-over-quarter fluctuations in vehicle delivery numbers; short-term price adjustments on vehicle models; competitive EV launches from legacy automakers without a comparable software/charging ecosystem; Elon Musk's social media activity.
Repricing Catalyst
The market re-rating hinges on the successful scaling of the high-margin Energy business and demonstrating a clear path to monetizing autonomy via FSD subscriptions and a commercial Robotaxi fleet. Baird analysts cite robotaxi announcements and Energy segment growth as key 2026 catalysts. Morgan Stanley identifies the ability to scale an unsupervised robotaxi fleet as the single 'most important catalyst' for the stock.
Electric Vehicles
$69530000.0B TTM (73.3% of Total) · 16.2% MarginWhat It Is
Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck.
Who Pays & How
Primarily individual consumers. While brand loyalty has been a key asset, there are no disclosed fleet customers representing >10% of revenue. Defections are typically to other premium brands rather than down-market for cost savings.
Competition
Energy Generation & Storage
$12770000.0B TTM (13.5% of Total) · 29.8% MarginWhat It Is
Megapack (utility-scale battery storage), Powerwall (residential battery storage), Solar Roof.
Who Pays & How
Utility companies (e.g., PG&E, Genex Power) and commercial clients pay per MWh for Megapacks to provide grid stability, replace natural gas peaker plants, and time-shift renewable energy.
Competition
Services & Other (incl. FSD)
$12530000.0B TTM (13.2% of Total) · 8.8% MarginWhat It Is
Full Self-Driving (FSD) software subscriptions, pay-per-use Supercharging, vehicle maintenance, insurance, and sales of used vehicles.
Who Pays & How
Tesla vehicle owners pay a recurring monthly fee for FSD software ($99/month) or pay for services like fast charging. The transition to a subscription-only model for FSD aims to create a predictable, high-margin revenue stream.
Competition
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