Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $390.22 | Market Cap: $1.3 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $390.22Market Cap: $1.3 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 226x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 334x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% | |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 13x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 226x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 334x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Declining Vehicle Deliveries and Weak Demand in Key Markets. Tesla reported a 16% year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries, reaching 418,227 units, which missed analyst expectations and marked the second consecutive year of decreasing annual deliveries. This trend continued into 2026, with U.S. sales falling 17% in January from the prior year and domestic deliveries in China crashing 45% year-over-year to 18,485 units in January 2026. The collapse in delivery wait times in China to 1-3 weeks and the extension of financing incentives signal that supply is outpacing demand.
2. Revenue Decline and Sustained Margin Pressure. For the full year 2025, Tesla experienced its first annual revenue decrease as a public company, falling 3% to $94.8 billion. Full-year 2025 net income also saw a significant drop, declining nearly 47% year-over-year to $3.79 billion. The fourth quarter of 2025 also reflected a 3.1% year-over-year revenue decrease to $24.90 billion, alongside persistent margin pressure stemming from increasing competition and price adjustments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in TSLA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 430.17 | 392.78 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,633 | 94,827 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 4.0% | -24.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 273.3 | 334.5 | 22.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,227 | 3,231 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.2% | 54.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.5% | 69.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.6% change in TSLA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 82.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 333.87 | 392.78 | 17.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,720 | 94,827 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 4.0% | -36.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 183.0 | 334.5 | 82.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,223 | 3,231 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 17.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.8% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.4% | 72.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.1% change in TSLA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 153.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 292.98 | 392.78 | 34.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 97,690 | 94,827 | -2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.3% | 4.0% | -45.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 132.0 | 334.5 | 153.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,212 | 3,231 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 34.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.3% | 69.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.1% | 80.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 90.9% change in TSLA stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 547.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 205.71 | 392.78 | 90.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,462 | 94,827 | 16.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.5% | 4.0% | -74.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 51.6 | 334.5 | 547.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,160 | 3,231 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 90.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 90.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.1% | 58.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.6% | 78.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 11% | -11% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 82% | -56% | -1% | -18% | 36% | -13% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 79% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -20% | -69% | -12% | -43% | -45% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -62% | -34% | -38% | -31% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 198 days | 120 days |
Compare to GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Tesla (TSLA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Tesla (TSLA):
- It's like Apple for electric vehicles.
- Think of it as Amazon for cars and home energy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electric Vehicles: Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells sedans and sport utility vehicles.
- Automotive Regulatory Credits: The company sells automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers.
- Vehicle Services & Financing: Tesla provides non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, vehicle insurance, purchase financing, and leasing services.
- Solar Energy Systems: Tesla designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases solar energy generation products.
- Energy Storage Systems: The company designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases energy storage products.
- Energy Product Services: Tesla offers service, repairs, and various financing options for its solar and energy storage customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tesla (TSLA) sells primarily to individuals for its automotive products, though its energy segment serves both individuals and various types of organizations. Based on the company description, here are the major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals who purchase or lease Tesla's electric vehicles (sedans and SUVs) for personal use. It also covers residential customers who acquire Tesla's solar energy generation products (solar panels) and energy storage systems (e.g., Powerwall) for their homes.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This category encompasses various businesses, from commercial enterprises to large industrial operations, that purchase Tesla's energy storage products (such as Powerpack and Megapack) and solar solutions for their facilities. While less explicitly detailed for vehicles, some businesses may also acquire Tesla vehicles for their corporate fleets.
- Utility Companies: Electric utility providers form a distinct customer category for Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, particularly for large-scale energy storage projects (e.g., Megapack installations) designed to support grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance overall power management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
Elon Musk is the CEO and a Director of Tesla. He co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, which was sold to Compaq in 1999. He also co-founded X.com, which merged to form PayPal, later acquired by eBay in 2002. Musk became an early investor in Tesla in 2004 and assumed leadership as CEO and product architect in 2008. His other ventures include founding SpaceX, The Boring Company, X Corp (formerly Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI. He was also the primary financial backer of SolarCity, which Tesla acquired in 2016.
Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja serves as Tesla's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Tesla in 2017 as Assistant Corporate Controller and steadily rose through the ranks, becoming Corporate Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and then CFO in August 2023. Prior to joining Tesla, he was the Corporate Controller at SolarCity, a solar energy company acquired by Tesla in 2016. Taneja also spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in both India and the United States.
Tom Zhu, Senior Vice President, Automotive
Tom Zhu is the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, overseeing global automotive operations, including assembly plants and sales. He joined Tesla in 2014, initially leading the charging network development in China, and later served as the General Manager for Tesla in China. Zhu was instrumental in the rapid construction of Gigafactory Shanghai. Before his tenure at Tesla, he co-founded Kaibo Engineering Group Corp. and worked as a project manager, advising Chinese contractors on infrastructure projects in Africa.
Lars Moravy, Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy holds the position of Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla. He joined the company in 2010. His roles at Tesla have included Director, Chassis Dynamics Engineering, and Senior Director, Chassis Dynamics and Vehicle Test Engineering. Moravy previously worked as a Suspension Design Engineer III, Chassis Design for Honda R&D. He leads a substantial team responsible for all aspects of Tesla vehicle hardware design, testing, validation, development, manufacturing, and supporting engineering tools.
Ashok Elluswamy, Vice President of AI
Ashok Elluswamy is Tesla's Vice President of AI and leads the company's Autopilot software team. He was the first engineer hired for the Autopilot team in 2014. Elluswamy holds a Master of Science degree in Robotic Systems Development from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor's degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the College of Engineering, Guindy. His prior experience includes working as a Software Engineer at WABCO Vehicle Control Systems and a research internship at Volkswagen Electronic Research Lab, where he contributed to autonomous driving projects.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Tesla's business:
- Intensifying Competition and Margin Erosion: Tesla faces significant challenges from intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from established automakers and new entrants from China, such as BYD. This heightened competition has led to price cuts, declining market share, and reduced profitability for Tesla's core automotive business. For instance, Tesla reported significant declines in revenue and net income in Q1 2025, with revenue decreasing 9% year-over-year and net income falling 71%, largely attributed to reduced vehicle deliveries and lower average selling prices due to increased competition. Tesla's market share in the U.S. declined to 43.5% in Q1 2025 from 60% in 2020, and European sales also experienced a significant downturn. The company's operational margin dropped to 8.2% in Q4 2023 from 16% in Q4 2022, a decrease driven in part by intense competition and significant price cuts impacting profit margins.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Safety Concerns related to Autonomous Driving (FSD/Autopilot): Tesla's advanced driver-assistance systems, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), are under ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to numerous incidents involving crashes, traffic violations, and concerns about their safety and advertised capabilities. These investigations cover millions of vehicles and have led to recalls, such as nearly 2 million U.S. vehicles in December 2023 following an NHTSA investigation into approximately 1,000 crashes involving its Autopilot system. There are concerns about FSD's ability to detect and respond appropriately in challenging environmental conditions, and reports of vehicles running red lights or steering against traffic. Legal and regulatory actions could lead to mandatory safety retrofits, litigation costs, reputational damage, and delays in the deployment of robotaxi services, which are crucial for Tesla's future valuation and growth narrative.
- Dependence on Elon Musk and Associated Reputational/Governance Risks: The success and public perception of Tesla are closely tied to its CEO, Elon Musk. His personal actions, political involvement, and divided attention across multiple ventures are increasingly seen as a liability for the company. Reports suggest that Musk's controversial statements and political alignment have alienated a significant portion of Tesla's core customer base, impacting sales in key markets like Europe and China. Critics also highlight concerns about Tesla's corporate governance structure, with the board largely composed of individuals with deep ties to Musk, raising questions about independent oversight. The company's reliance on Musk for strategic direction and investor confidence poses a significant risk if his focus is diverted or his reputation continues to negatively impact the brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Intensified competition from a growing number of legacy automakers and new entrants releasing a wide range of competitive electric vehicles. This directly challenges Tesla's market share, pricing power, and perceived technological lead in a rapidly maturing EV market.
2. The increasing adoption of Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other major automakers, which, while beneficial for the EV industry, erodes Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network advantage, a key differentiator and competitive moat.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Tesla's Main Products and Services
Automotive Segment (Electric Vehicles)
The global electric vehicle (EV) market was estimated at approximately USD 1,328.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,523.97 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32.5% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global EV market at USD 988.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 10.82% from 2026 to 2035. Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024. In February 2026, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units.Energy Generation and Storage Segment
Solar Energy
The global solar energy market was valued at approximately USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global solar power market size was valued at USD 273 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 436.36 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Global solar installations reached nearly 600 GW in 2024. The installed base of the solar energy market is expected to grow from 2.35 Terawatt in 2025 to 7.25 Terawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 19.91% over 2026-2031.Energy Storage Systems
The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034. Alternatively, the global energy storage systems market size was estimated at USD 222,787.5 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 512,407.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030. The global battery energy storage system (BESS) market alone is projected to grow from USD 50.81 billion in 2025 to USD 105.96 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.8%.AI Analysis | Feedback
For Tesla (TSLA), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Energy Generation and Storage Products: Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, encompassing products like Megapack and Powerwall, is consistently cited as a significant growth area. The company has reported record deployments and a robust backlog for these products, with management anticipating increasing deployments. This segment is expected to contribute a growing portion of high-margin revenue.
- Growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Subscriptions: Tesla is actively transitioning its Full Self-Driving system to a subscription-based model. This strategic shift aims to generate recurring, high-margin software revenue by leveraging its substantial installed vehicle base and advancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
- Launch and Scaling of Robotaxi Service (Cybercab): The introduction and expansion of a dedicated Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab, are considered major catalysts for future revenue. Production of the Cybercab is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with expectations for it to become a high-volume model over the longer term. This service will be closely tied to the monetization of Tesla's autonomy software.
- Introduction of a More Affordable Electric Vehicle: Tesla plans to launch a more affordable electric vehicle, potentially priced around $25,000. This new model is expected to significantly broaden the company's customer base globally and drive substantial vehicle sales volume, especially in markets with increasing competition and demand for lower-priced EVs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Tesla has not made significant company-led share repurchases in the last 3-5 years, with buyback yields indicating minimal to no activity in this area.
Share Issuance
- Tesla's shares outstanding have generally increased between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 3.386 billion in December 2021 to 3.528 billion in December 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Tesla revealed plans to invest approximately $2 billion into xAI, an artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk.
- This investment is intended to enhance Tesla's capability to develop and deploy AI products and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Tesla's capital expenditures have shown substantial growth, with approximately $6.514 billion in 2021, $7.163 billion in 2022, $8.899 billion in 2023, and peaking at $11.342 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures are reported around $8.5 billion.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $20 billion in 2026, with a primary focus on expanding manufacturing facilities for new products like Cybertruck and Semi, developing battery cell technologies, scaling AI initiatives and infrastructure (including the Dojo supercomputer), and ramping up Optimus robot production.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying Tesla Stock | 03/12/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Tesla Stock? | 03/11/2026 | |
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Tesla Stock | 02/28/2026 | |
| How Does Tesla Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/27/2026 | |
| Tesla Stock (+2.4%) : Broad Market Rally Overcomes Weak EU Data | 02/25/2026 | |
| The Risk Factors to Watch Out For in Tesla Stock | 02/20/2026 | |
| What Could Light a Fire Under Tesla Stock | 01/30/2026 | |
| How Tesla Stock Gained 60% | 01/24/2026 | |
| Tesla Stock Can Sink, Here Is How | 01/17/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Tesla Stock To $279? | 03/12/2026 | |
| How Tesla Stock Gained 80% | 03/11/2026 | |
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Tesla Stock | 02/28/2026 | |
| Can Tesla Stock’s $1.3T Valuation Withstand China’s Humanoid Surge? | 02/19/2026 | |
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Tesla Stock | 02/18/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TSLA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 04302025 | TSLA | Tesla | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 63.6% | 42.7% | -2.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.1 |
| Rev LTM | 50,107 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1,814 |
| FCF LTM | -359 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,951 |
| CFO LTM | 7,163 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,820 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.1 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -2.9 |
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/CFO | 0.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.1% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $392.78 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,269.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $417.61 | $394.23 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.9% | -0.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.6% | 57.2% |
| Downside Capture | 191.12 | 189.02 |
| Upside Capture | 104.99 | 214.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 62.8% | 69.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.69 | 2.22 | 2.18 | 2.26 |
| Up Beta | 2.48 | 2.70 | 2.41 | 3.03 | 2.26 | 2.27 |
| Down Beta | 2.11 | 2.08 | 1.99 | 2.61 | 2.06 | 2.17 |
| Up Capture | 99% | 68% | 114% | 233% | 453% | 2439% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 29 | 67 | 132 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 172% | 177% | 152% | 155% | 148% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 32 | 57 | 118 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 77.6% | 57.0% | 1.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.1% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 81.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 69.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 62.0% | 26.4% | 1.81 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.3% | 0.85 | 21.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.1% | 44.3% | -0.16 | 41.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 12.6% | 59.1% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.6% | 0.25 | 76.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 56.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.3% | 1.07 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 18.8% | 0.13 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 32.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 40.8% | 58.9% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 62.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.7% | 0.75 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/2/2026 | -2.6% | -3.1% | |
| 10/2/2025 | -5.1% | -4.5% | -4.2% |
| 7/2/2025 | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| 4/2/2025 | 5.3% | -17.4% | 4.5% |
| 1/2/2025 | -6.1% | -2.2% | -5.0% |
| 10/2/2024 | -3.5% | -5.2% | -0.2% |
| 7/2/2024 | 10.2% | 25.0% | 10.6% |
| 4/2/2024 | 1.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 5.1% | 23.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.0% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 26.1% | 81.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -17.4% | -24.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 1062026 | 445.40 | 60,000 | 26,723,781 | 257,007,505 | Form | |
| 2 | Musk, Kimbal | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 450.66 | 56,820 | 25,606,501 | 627,145,216 | Form | |
| 3 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 443.93 | 2,637 | 1,170,635 | 6,107,104 | Form |
| 4 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 9172025 | 422.68 | 60,000 | 25,360,800 | 269,260,263 | Form | |
| 5 | Musk, Elon | CEO | Trust | Buy | 9152025 | 389.28 | 2,568,732 | 999,959,042 | 160,914,364,612 | Form |
TSLA Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The risk/reward is highly unfavorable. The probability-adjusted skew of 0.20x indicates a significant chance of substantial capital loss. The 'BROKEN' competitive moat in the core, high-margin automotive business is a structural flaw that cannot be ignored. While the Energy segment offers a promising growth vector, it is not yet large enough to offset the deterioration in the primary business, making the stock's speculative valuation untenable.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityTesla's core automotive business is now exhibiting classic cyclical characteristics: decelerating growth, industry-wide oversupply, price wars, and margin compression. The stock's performance is tied to the supply/demand balance for EVs, fitting the 'Cyclical' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is predicated on a strategic pivot from the maturing, hyper-competitive automotive market to the high-growth, higher-margin Energy Generation and Storage business. This segment is positioned to become the primary driver of profitability and growth, offsetting the cyclical downturn in the core auto division.
- Energy segment revenue grew +40% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing the decelerating automotive segment.
- Energy Gross Margin of 22.5% is expanding and is substantially higher than the Automotive Gross Margin of 17.2%.
- The company has a $4.96 billion backlog in deferred revenue from the energy division to be recognized in 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is the structural and potentially irreversible loss of market share and pricing power in the core automotive segment. The competitive moat has been breached by rivals like BYD, particularly in the increasingly dominant value-conscious consumer segment, turning Tesla's vehicles into commoditized products in an oversupplied market.
- BYD surpassed Tesla in global BEV sales in 2025, indicating a direct loss of market leadership.
- Automotive revenue declined 10% for the full year 2025, and vehicle deliveries fell 11.4% amidst intense price competition.
- Data from China and Europe in early 2026 shows continued market share deterioration and demand weakness.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits) | Sustain above 17.5% | This is the primary indicator of pricing power and cost control within the core business. A breach below this level would signal that price competition is destroying profitability. |
| Energy Segment Revenue Growth (YoY) | Maintain > 40% | The entire bull thesis rests on this segment offsetting automotive weakness. Any significant deceleration would invalidate the 'growth pivot' narrative. |
| China Vehicle Sales & Market Share (CPCA Data) | Avoid sequential market share loss to BYD | China is the most competitive EV market. Further share loss here is a leading indicator of Tesla's global competitive standing and confirms the bear thesis. |
Automotive Decline vs. Energy & AI Growth
BULL VIEW
The automotive slowdown is cyclical. The rapid growth and superior margins in the Energy segment, plus future FSD/AI optionality, will drive the next earnings leg up.
CORE TENSION
Can high-margin Energy/Software growth offset the commoditization and demand saturation of the core automotive business, justifying a tech valuation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Full year 2025 automotive revenues dropped 10% and vehicle deliveries declined for the second consecutive year, while competitor BYD became the world's largest BEV manufacturer.
BEAR VIEW
Automotive sales are in structural decline due to superior competition (BYD). Energy growth cannot compensate for the auto revenue scale, leading to significant multiple compression.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Automotive revenue trend and full-year delivery guidance. Any negative revision from the ambiguous 'return to growth' comment would be critical. |
Monthly (Feb/March data critical) | China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) Data Releases Watch: Tesla's monthly sales and market share within the Chinese NEV market. Look for stabilization vs. continued share loss to BYD. |
Next 6 months (Response deadline Feb 23) | NHTSA FSD Investigation Conclusion Watch: An official recall demand or finding of a defect by NHTSA. This would be a binary, news-driven event. |
Next 3-6 months | European Commission Decision on China EV Tariffs Watch: The final countervailing duty percentage applied to EVs exported from China. A rate >20% would be highly punitive. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 29, 2025 | Loss of US EV Tax Credits Details: It was confirmed that US electric vehicle tax credits would be phased out, impacting the affordability of Tesla vehicles starting in September. [38] | Fell notably by -3.50% $345.98 -> $333.87 |
Oct 9, 2025 | Start of NHTSA FSD Investigation Details: The NHTSA opened a formal investigation into Tesla's FSD system covering 2.88 million vehicles, following multiple reports of traffic law violations. [39] | Plummeted -5.06% $435.54 -> $413.49 |
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Tesla reported Q3 EPS of $0.50, beating estimates of $0.48. Total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, also beating expectations. [2, 3, 4] | Rose significantly by 2.28% $438.97 -> $448.98 |
Jan 2, 2026 | Q4 2025 Production & Deliveries Details: Tesla announced Q4 production of 434,358 vehicles and deliveries of 418,227, missing market expectations and confirming a YoY decline. [49] | Fell notably by -2.59% $449.72 -> $438.07 |
Jan 16, 2026 | NHTSA Investigation Extension Details: The NHTSA granted Tesla a five-week extension, until Feb 23, 2026, to provide data for the ongoing investigation into its Full Self-Driving system. [14, 27] | Muted (-0.24%) $438.57 -> $437.50 |
Jan 28, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Tesla reported a Q4 EPS beat ($0.50 vs $0.45 est.) but revenue fell 3% YoY to $24.9B. The market focused on the 11% decline in automotive revenue. [3, 6] | Fell notably by -3.45% $431.46 -> $416.56 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (4.1x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, extreme valuation, contested moat, and Low visibility all argue against a significant position despite volatility compression.
Diversification Alternatives
BYDDY
INDUSTRYUnlike Tesla, BYD is gaining global market share, is vertically integrated into batteries, and has a dominant position in the lower-cost mass market, insulating it from the high-end EV saturation.
XPEV
INDUSTRYXPeng is demonstrating rapid acceleration in sales growth, particularly in Europe, and is focused on smart EV technology, offering a high-growth alternative without Tesla's valuation overhang.
Tesla is transitioning from a high-growth EV maker into a diversified AI, robotics, and energy infrastructure company, a pivot funded by legacy auto profits but introducing significant near-term execution risk with a >$20B CapEx budget for 2026.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI/Robotics pivot: does this accelerate the path to autonomous revenue and energy scale, or does it reflect erosion in the core auto business needed to fund the transition?
Robotaxi fleet expansion to new cities; FSD subscription net additions >1M/year; Optimus robot deployments in factories moving beyond testing to production tasks; Energy Storage deployments >+50% YoY; new Megafactory ramps ahead of schedule.
Automotive gross margins (ex-credits) falling below 15%; further declines in vehicle deliveries YoY; delays in Cybercab production ramp; significant safety or regulatory setbacks for FSD/Robotaxi operations; slower than expected ramp of 4680 battery cells.
Quarterly EV market share fluctuations vs. competitors like BYD — the strategic pivot to AI makes this a secondary metric; short-term vehicle price adjustments — margin resilience is the key metric, not ASP; individual FSD software update features — only fleet-level operational metrics (disengagements, miles driven) matter.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-evaluating Tesla as an AI infrastructure play, not just a car company. The key catalyst is the scaling of the unsupervised robotaxi fleet, currently live in Austin. Management's plan to wind down Model S/X production to build up to 1 million Optimus humanoid robots per year at the Fremont factory is a tangible sign of this capital reallocation. Success in these areas could unlock high-margin, recurring software and robotics revenue, justifying a valuation multiple beyond that of a traditional automaker.
Automotive
$69526000.0B TTM (73.3% of Total) · 17.9% MarginWhat It Is
Model 3 (sedan), Model Y (crossover SUV), Cybertruck (pickup). Model S and Model X production is being wound down in 2026.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and fleet operators (e.g., Hertz) pay for the vehicles. The primary lock-in and competitive advantage is Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network, which is widely regarded as the most reliable and extensive fast-charging network, significantly reducing 'range anxiety' for long-distance travel.
Competition
Energy Generation & Storage
$12771000.0B TTM (13.5% of Total) · 28.7% MarginWhat It Is
Megapack (utility-scale battery storage), Powerwall (residential battery storage), Solar Roof.
Who Pays & How
Utilities and commercial businesses pay for Megapacks to stabilize the grid and store energy. Homeowners pay for Powerwall and Solar Roof to reduce reliance on the grid and provide backup power.
Competition
Services & Other (Incl. FSD Software)
$12520000.0B TTM (13.2% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Full Self-Driving (FSD) software suite, vehicle maintenance/repair, Supercharging fees, Tesla insurance.
Who Pays & How
Tesla owners pay for FSD (transitioning to subscription-only), out-of-warranty repairs, and supercharging. The FSD software is a key potential high-margin, recurring revenue stream.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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