Trupanion (TRUP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.43 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Life & Health Insurance
Trupanion (TRUP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.43Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Life & Health Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 121x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Pet Economy & Humanization. Themes include Pet Insurance & Healthcare Financing, and Pet Health Data Analytics. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Pet Economy & Humanization. Themes include Pet Insurance & Healthcare Financing, and Pet Health Data Analytics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 121x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TRUP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Trupanion (TRUP) experienced a stock price decline of approximately -21.8% from August 31, 2025, to December 3, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors that influenced investor sentiment during this period.
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions:
During the period, several analysts adjusted their outlook on Trupanion. Stifel Nicolaus, for instance, lowered its price target for TRUP from $45.00 to $42.00 and maintained a "Hold" rating on November 18, 2025. Additionally, Weiss Ratings reiterated a "Sell (D+)" rating for the stock on December 1, 2025. These downward revisions contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Projected Decline in Next Year's EPS:
Analysts anticipate a significant decrease in Trupanion's earnings per share (EPS) for the upcoming year. Projections indicate a drop from $0.42 per share in the current year to $0.33 per share next year, representing a 22.29% reduction. This forecast of declining profitability likely weighed heavily on the stock's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRUP Return | 220% | 10% | -64% | -36% | 58% | -28% | -7% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 40% | -22% | -35% | 3% | 12% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRUP Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 47% | 42% | 37% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRUP Max Drawdown | -36% | -40% | -67% | -59% | -35% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -16% | -41% | -46% | -42% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADUS, MD, WOOF, NUS, CCRN. See TRUP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRUP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 689.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 120 days |
Compare to ADUS, MD, WOOF, NUS, CCRN
In The Past
Trupanion's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -87.3% loss requires a 689.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TRUP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Trupanion
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,480 |
| Op Inc LTM | 87 |
| FCF LTM | 65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 84 |
| CFO LTM | 96 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 145 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -52.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -120.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription business | 713 | 597 | 495 | 388 | 321 |
| Other Business | 396 | 309 | 204 | 114 | 63 |
| Total | 1,109 | 905 | 699 | 502 | 384 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gain (loss) from investment in joint venture | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Other Business | -4 | -3 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Subscription business | -36 | -40 | -34 | -4 | -2 |
| Total | -41 | -43 | -35 | -5 | -2 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Life & Health Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |