TC Energy (TRP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.79 | Market Cap: $57.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
TC Energy (TRP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.79Market Cap: $57.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 7.5 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, US Energy Independence, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 6.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 7.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, US Energy Independence, and Renewable Energy Transition. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TRP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The user's request pertains to a future time period (8/31/2025 to December 4, 2025) and asks for an explanation of a 4.8% stock movement within that time. As an AI, I do not have access to future stock market data or events. Therefore, I cannot provide factual reasons for a hypothetical future stock movement. However, I can provide general factors that influence TC Energy's stock price based on available past and recent information, adhering to the output formatting requirements. Here are some general factors that could influence TC Energy (TRP) stock performance: 1. 1. Project Development and Execution: TC Energy's stock can be significantly impacted by the progress and successful completion of major infrastructure projects, particularly in natural gas transmission. Projects like the Southeast Gateway pipeline in Mexico, which was completed under budget, can positively influence investor sentiment and future cash flow. Delays or cost overruns on projects, such as the Coastal GasLink pipeline, can have a negative effect. 2. 2. Earnings Performance and Outlook: Quarterly earnings reports and the company's financial guidance play a crucial role. Strong comparable EBITDA growth and positive earnings per share contribute to investor confidence. Future earnings growth projections, especially those driven by demand from sectors like AI data centers and LNG, can also influence stock valuation. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRP Return | -19% | 21% | -9% | 5% | 42% | 20% | 60% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 50% | 9% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRP Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRP Max Drawdown | -37% | 0% | -11% | -13% | -7% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -0% | -1% | -8% | -3% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 732 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 784 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI
In The Past
TC Energy's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With TC Energy Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TRP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TC Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| Rev LTM | 15,532 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,471 |
| FCF LTM | 3,406 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,982 |
| CFO LTM | 6,812 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,699 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines | 50,499 | 50,038 | 45,502 | 43,217 | 41,627 |
| Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines | 29,782 | 27,456 | 25,213 | 22,852 | 21,983 |
| Liquids Pipelines | 15,490 | 15,587 | 14,951 | 16,744 | 15,931 |
| Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines | 12,003 | 9,231 | 7,547 | 7,215 | 7,207 |
| Power and Energy Solutions | 9,525 | 8,272 | 6,563 | 5,062 | 7,788 |
| Corporate | 7,735 | 3,764 | 4,442 | 5,210 | 4,743 |
| Total | 125,034 | 114,348 | 104,218 | 100,300 | 99,279 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |