Tearsheet

Pembina Pipeline (PBA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.375 | Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Pembina Pipeline (PBA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.375
Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  Key risks
PBA key risks include [1] regulatory decisions impacting its critical Alliance Pipeline, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%
7 Key risks
PBA key risks include [1] regulatory decisions impacting its critical Alliance Pipeline, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PBA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Pembina Pipeline (PBA) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Updated Guidance: Pembina Pipeline reported its third quarter 2025 financial results around November 6, 2025, with reported earnings of $286 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1,034 million, marking a one percent increase over the prior year's period. The company also updated its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion. While the company's Q3 2025 EPS of Cdn$0.43 was slightly below analyst estimates of Cdn$0.46, revenue of Cdn$1.79 billion exceeded the consensus estimate of Cdn$1.53 billion.

2. Announcement of 2026 Financial Guidance: On December 15, 2025, Pembina unveiled its 2026 financial guidance, projecting an adjusted EBITDA between C$4.125 billion and C$4.425 billion, reflecting an approximate four percent increase in fee-based adjusted EBITDA compared to the 2025 forecast. This guidance also outlined a capital investment program of approximately C$1.6 billion for 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PBA Return-30%37%18%8%13%6%46%
Peers Return-23%36%14%7%49%5%98%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PBA Win Rate50%67%67%67%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate43%70%63%55%72%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PBA Max Drawdown-68%0%-1%-12%-4%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-1%-5%-12%-5%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ENB, TRP, KMI, WMB, OKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPBAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven722 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven244.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven763 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven53 days120 days

Compare to ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI


In The Past

Pembina Pipeline's stock fell -28.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -28.7% loss requires a 40.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pembina Pipeline (PBA)

Better Bets than Pembina Pipeline (PBA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PBA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pembina Pipeline

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PBAENBTRPKMIWMBOKEMedian
NamePembina .Enbridge TC EnergyKinder M.Williams.ONEOK  
Mkt Price37.3646.9454.0226.6558.8473.0550.48
Mkt Cap21.7102.456.259.371.946.157.7
Rev LTM8,04064,23414,64816,41611,49531,56415,532
Op Inc LTM2,93111,1996,3164,4593,9415,9075,183
FCF LTM2,5514,0541,9512,7571,7222,9202,654
FCF 3Y Avg2,3286,7076373,3752,4582,7632,610
CFO LTM3,34212,8217,5365,7355,5405,6645,700
CFO 3Y Avg3,07913,1917,4805,9185,4844,8015,701

Growth & Margins

PBAENBTRPKMIWMBOKEMedian
NamePembina .Enbridge TC EnergyKinder M.Williams.ONEOK  
Rev Chg LTM11.3%32.3%24.5%8.3%9.0%58.4%17.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.8%8.6%1.5%-4.3%0.8%16.4%1.1%
Rev Chg Q-2.9%-1.6%10.3%12.1%10.2%71.9%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%-0.4%2.4%2.8%2.4%12.9%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM36.5%17.4%43.1%27.2%34.3%18.7%30.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg34.5%19.1%43.5%27.6%35.5%21.2%31.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%0.1%0.5%-0.5%1.6%-0.9%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM41.6%20.0%51.4%34.9%48.2%17.9%38.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg41.0%25.6%57.3%37.5%49.8%21.5%39.2%
FCF/Rev LTM31.7%6.3%13.3%16.8%15.0%9.3%14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg31.0%13.5%4.5%21.5%22.5%12.7%17.5%

Valuation

PBAENBTRPKMIWMBOKEMedian
NamePembina .Enbridge TC EnergyKinder M.Williams.ONEOK  
Mkt Cap21.7102.456.259.371.946.157.7
P/S2.91.73.93.86.71.53.4
P/EBIT8.08.46.814.116.77.38.2
P/E13.218.316.223.132.713.817.2
P/CFO7.08.67.511.014.08.18.4
Total Yield14.5%12.9%12.6%8.4%6.2%7.3%10.5%
Dividend Yield6.9%7.4%6.4%4.1%3.1%0.0%5.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.1%8.3%0.9%7.2%4.7%6.9%7.0%
D/E0.60.91.10.50.40.70.6
Net D/E0.60.91.10.50.40.70.6

Returns

PBAENBTRPKMIWMBOKEMedian
NamePembina .Enbridge TC EnergyKinder M.Williams.ONEOK  
1M Rtn-1.0%-1.7%-0.9%-1.8%-1.0%6.1%-1.0%
3M Rtn-3.8%-3.1%4.8%-2.2%0.5%1.8%-0.9%
6M Rtn4.6%7.3%16.4%-1.2%1.2%-7.4%2.9%
12M Rtn6.9%20.2%23.7%4.6%13.4%-24.5%10.2%
3Y Rtn35.5%49.2%82.2%77.6%107.7%32.6%63.4%
1M Excs Rtn-1.7%-2.4%-1.6%-2.5%-1.7%5.4%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-5.8%-4.4%2.9%-3.9%-3.1%-0.5%-3.5%
6M Excs Rtn-7.8%-5.0%4.1%-13.6%-11.2%-19.8%-9.5%
12M Excs Rtn-6.6%7.6%11.6%-7.6%0.8%-37.2%-2.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-38.7%-22.9%4.4%7.9%34.0%-38.8%-9.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marketing & New Ventures3,2938,4715,5772,9564,804
Pipelines2,7072,5082,2792,2511,787
Facilities9091,2681,3631,2311,121
Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations-578-636-592-485-482
Total6,33111,6118,6275,9537,230


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pipelines1,8681,4439461591,049
Facilities6191,817750666644
Marketing & New Ventures439735383-659368
Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations-271-29036-162-230
Total2,6553,7052,11541,831


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Pipelines1,840    
Facilities610    
Marketing & New Ventures435    
Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations-696    
Total2,189    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,405,011
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202551.1%
Average Daily Volume1,492,957
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.30
Basic Shares Quantity581,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024227202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202480820246-K 6/30/2024
331202450920246-K 3/31/2024
12312023223202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022223202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110320226-K 9/30/2022
630202280420226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021225202240-F 12/31/2021