Pembina Pipeline (PBA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.19 | Market Cap: $22.8 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Pembina Pipeline (PBA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.19Market Cap: $22.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 6.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PBA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Pembina Pipeline (PBA) experienced a 4.1% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by a combination of financial results, strategic developments, and investor activity.
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Pembina Pipeline reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings in early November, showing a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA but a 26% decrease in overall earnings compared to the prior year. The company's revenue also declined and missed analyst estimates, leading to a narrowed adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025.
2. Strengthened Commercial Agreements: The company bolstered its long-term financial outlook by securing new transportation agreements on its Peace Pipeline, representing approximately 50,000 barrels per day over roughly 10-year terms. Additionally, the Alliance Pipeline's long-term contractual profile was reinforced, with shippers electing new 10-year tolls for a substantial portion of its firm capacity.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PBA Return | -30% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 50% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 50% | 9% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PBA Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PBA Max Drawdown | -68% | 0% | -1% | -12% | -4% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -0% | -1% | -8% | -3% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PBA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 722 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 244.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 763 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 120 days |
Compare to ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI
In The Past
Pembina Pipeline's stock fell -28.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -28.7% loss requires a 40.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Pembina Pipeline Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PBA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pembina Pipeline
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,956 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,542 |
| FCF LTM | 3,406 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,982 |
| CFO LTM | 5,912 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,813 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing & New Ventures | 3,293 | 8,471 | 5,577 | 2,956 | 4,804 |
| Pipelines | 2,707 | 2,508 | 2,279 | 2,251 | 1,787 |
| Facilities | 909 | 1,268 | 1,363 | 1,231 | 1,121 |
| Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations | -578 | -636 | -592 | -485 | -482 |
| Total | 6,331 | 11,611 | 8,627 | 5,953 | 7,230 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pipelines | 1,868 | 1,443 | 946 | 159 | 1,049 |
| Facilities | 619 | 1,817 | 750 | 666 | 644 |
| Marketing & New Ventures | 439 | 735 | 383 | -659 | 368 |
| Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations | -271 | -290 | 36 | -162 | -230 |
| Total | 2,655 | 3,705 | 2,115 | 4 | 1,831 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pipelines | 1,840 | ||||
| Facilities | 610 | ||||
| Marketing & New Ventures | 435 | ||||
| Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations | -696 | ||||
| Total | 2,189 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |