LendingTree (TREE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $57.0 | Market Cap: $776.5 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Financial Services
LendingTree (TREE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $57.0Market Cap: $776.5 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Financial Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 62x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TREE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company LendingTree (symbol: TREE) experienced a -16.5% stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, due to a combination of factors, including a significant leadership change and broader market adjustments, despite reporting strong third-quarter earnings.
1. The unexpected passing of CEO Doug Lebda. LendingTree announced the sudden passing of its founder, Chairman, and CEO, Doug Lebda, on October 13, 2025. This significant leadership change likely introduced uncertainty among investors, potentially leading to a negative impact on the stock price as the market reacted to the loss of a visionary leader.
2. Market reaction despite strong Q3 2025 earnings. LendingTree reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 30, 2025, exceeding market expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company achieved consolidated revenue of $307.8 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net income per share of $1.70, significantly above the forecast of $1.14. Despite these positive results, which initially saw the stock surge in premarket trading, the overall downward trend suggests that other factors or market sentiment overshadowed the positive earnings report.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TREE Return | -10% | -55% | -83% | 42% | 28% | 44% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 84% | 38% | -42% | 17% | 14% | 6% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TREE Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 17% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 54% | 35% | 48% | 56% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TREE Max Drawdown | -55% | -61% | -85% | -51% | -14% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -20% | -54% | -28% | -29% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EQH, FRHC, TREE, RILY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TREE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3281.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 555.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EQH, FRHC, TREE, RILY
In The Past
LendingTree's stock fell -97.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -97.0% loss requires a 3281.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TREE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LendingTree
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,642 |
| Op Inc LTM | 77 |
| FCF LTM | 724 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 119 |
| CFO LTM | 766 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 167 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -4.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | -1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 83.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | 279 | 396 | 330 | 253 | 515 |
| Insurance | 250 | 299 | 326 | 334 | 285 |
| Home | 144 | 289 | 442 | 321 | 278 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 |
| Total | 673 | 985 | 1,098 | 910 | 1,107 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | 139 | 175 | 143 | 107 | 213 |
| Insurance | 104 | 92 | 113 | 131 | 115 |
| Home | 48 | 103 | 153 | 132 | 103 |
| Litigation settlements and contingencies | -0 | 0 | -0 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| Amortization of intangibles | -8 | -25 | -43 | -53 | -55 |
| Restructuring and severance | -10 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -1 |
| Depreciation | -19 | -20 | -18 | -14 | -11 |
| Goodwill impairment | -39 | ||||
| Cost of revenue | -39 | -58 | -57 | -53 | -46 |
| Product development | -47 | -56 | -53 | -44 | -40 |
| Brand and other marketing expense | -51 | -86 | -86 | -78 | -84 |
| General and administrative expense | -118 | -152 | -153 | -129 | -117 |
| Change in fair value of contingent consideration | 8 | -5 | -28 | ||
| Total | -41 | -33 | 8 | -7 | 51 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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