Nerdwallet (NRDS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $15.56 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Nerdwallet (NRDS)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $15.56Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 10% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NRDS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining NerdWallet's (NRDS) stock movement of approximately 50.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations:
NerdWallet reported robust financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 6, 2025. The company's revenue reached $215.1 million, marking a 12% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst expectations of $192.98 million. Additionally, NerdWallet's GAAP net income was $26.3 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, significantly exceeding the forecasted $0.21 EPS by 61.9%. This strong earnings beat contributed to a notable increase in the stock price, with reports indicating a rise of 6.3% following the announcement.
2. Significant Growth in Key Revenue Verticals:
The company experienced substantial revenue growth in several important segments. Loans revenue surged by 66% year-over-year, primarily driven by increases in personal and mortgage loans, bolstered by the integration of the Next Door Lending acquisition from October 2024. Furthermore, emerging verticals, particularly banking products, demonstrated an impressive 83% year-over-year revenue increase. The insurance business also saw a 3% rise in revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NRDS Return | - | - | -38% | 53% | -10% | 17% | 0% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 24% | -25% | 25% | 3% | 9% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NRDS Win Rate | - | 0% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 35% | 18% | 35% | 27% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NRDS Max Drawdown | - | - | -53% | -32% | -28% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -28% | -8% | -17% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NRDS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 334.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL
In The Past
Nerdwallet's stock fell -77.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -77.0% loss requires a 334.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NRDS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nerdwallet
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,639 |
| Op Inc LTM | 14 |
| FCF LTM | 117 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 125 |
| CFO LTM | 260 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 236 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.7 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | -14.8 |
| P/E | 1.3 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 65.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |