CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $18.07 | Market Cap: $590.0 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Diversified REITs
CTO Realty Growth (CTO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $18.07Market Cap: $590.0 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Diversified REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Key risksCTO key risks include [1] allegations of securities fraud involving the manipulation of financial metrics and use of sham loans to conceal distress, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 15% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 9.2%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 108% |
| Key risksCTO key risks include [1] allegations of securities fraud involving the manipulation of financial metrics and use of sham loans to conceal distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CTO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why CTO Realty Growth's stock would have moved by 9.2% during a recent strong performance period:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2024 Financial Performance: The company reported a positive third quarter in 2024, with core Funds From Operations (FFO) per diluted share increasing to $0.50 and Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per diluted share rising to $0.51, representing approximately 6% growth in both metrics compared to the prior year. This strong financial showing often boosts investor confidence and stock value.
2. Raised Full-Year 2024 Guidance: Following its strong performance, CTO Realty Growth increased its full-year 2024 guidance for core FFO to a range of $1.83-$1.87 per share and AFFO to $1.96-$2.00 per share. Upward revisions in guidance signal management's optimism and improved future earnings prospects, which typically drives stock appreciation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTO Return | -7% | 57% | -4% | 4% | 24% | -2% | 76% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 51% | -18% | -1% | 16% | 0% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTO Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 70% | 38% | 43% | 55% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTO Max Drawdown | -41% | -1% | -10% | -11% | -7% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -5% | -31% | -22% | -11% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WPC, ALEX, GOOD, OLP, EPRT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 261 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 266.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WPC, ALEX, GOOD, OLP, EPRT
In The Past
CTO Realty Growth's stock fell -29.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/12/2022. A -29.8% loss requires a 42.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CTO Realty Growth
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 187 |
| Op Inc LTM | 63 |
| FCF LTM | 88 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 66 |
| CFO LTM | 93 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 77 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 58.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 58.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.1% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Properties | 887 | 902 | 631 | 531 | 464 |
| Interest Income From Commercial Loans and Investments | 62 | 32 | 38 | 36 | |
| Corporate and Other | 36 | 46 | 35 | 36 | 136 |
| Real Estate Operations | 2 | 4 | 27 | 60 | 66 |
| Management Services | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Commercial Loans and Investments | 39 | ||||
| Discontinued Real Estate Operations | 1 | 1 | |||
| Total | 990 | 987 | 733 | 667 | 703 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 11.0% |
| 7/29/2025 | -6.8% | -6.0% | -2.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.2% | -2.4% | 1.8% |
| 2/20/2025 | -5.9% | -7.5% | -4.7% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.8% | -1.9% | 0.5% |
| 7/25/2024 | 3.3% | 5.7% | -0.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | -2.6% | -1.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/22/2024 | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.6% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 7.2% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -7.5% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |