First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX)
Market Price (6/4/2026): $15.3 | Market Cap: $531.7 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX)
Market Price (6/4/2026): $15.3Market Cap: $531.7 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% Key risksTRAX key risks include [1] the need to secure future capital beyond its two-year cash runway and [2] intense competition in the autoimmune and inflammatory diseases market. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 114% |
| Key risksTRAX key risks include [1] the need to secure future capital beyond its two-year cash runway and [2] intense competition in the autoimmune and inflammatory diseases market. |
Qualitative Assessment
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First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) stock has lost about 20% since it went public on 4/20/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Increased Net Loss and General and Administrative Expenses Post-Spin-Off.
First Tracks Biotherapeutics reported a net loss of $50.5 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, an increase from $47.2 million in the same period of 2025. This was significantly impacted by a near-doubling of general and administrative (G&A) expenses, which rose to $18.9 million from $9.8 million, primarily due to legal costs associated with the company's separation from AnaptysBio and non-cash stock compensation costs. This substantial increase in G&A expenses contributed to a wider net loss shortly after the company's public launch.
2. Long Development Timelines for Lead Programs and Perceived Dilution Risk.
The company's lead asset, ANB033, is currently in Phase 1b trials for celiac disease and eosinophilic esophagitis, with top-line data anticipated in Q4 2026 and mid-2027, respectively. The commercialization of ANB033 is projected to be approximately a decade away. Despite launching with $180 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing an estimated two-year cash runway, analysts have highlighted a "near-term dilution risk" as the company may need to conduct a public offering within the next two years to sustain its extensive clinical development efforts before generating revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRAX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.5% | -0.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRAX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.6% | -0.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRAX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 29.4% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.2% | -0.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRAX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 87.6% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.3% | -0.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRAX Return | - | - | - | - | - | -13% | -13% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 34% | 44% | -17% | 61% | 7% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRAX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 46% | 54% | 49% | 63% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRAX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -44% | -25% | -27% | -33% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KYTX, IMVT, ROIV, ABBV, GILD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TRAX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
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TRAX has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX)
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- AnaptysBio's specialized 'incubator' for new antibody drugs targeting autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
- An early-stage **Regeneron Pharmaceuticals** focused on autoimmune and inflammatory antibody treatments.
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- Antibody Therapeutics: These are biological drugs developed to modulate immune pathways involved in autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
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First Tracks Biotherapeutics, Inc. (TRAX) is described as a clinical-stage biotechnology company. As such, it is primarily focused on the research and development of antibody therapeutics and does not yet have commercialized products available for sale to end-users (individuals) or other companies.
The company operates as a subsidiary of AnaptysBio, Inc. In this structure, the research and development activities of First Tracks Biotherapeutics are conducted to advance the product pipeline and strategic interests of its parent company.
Therefore, the major customer or primary beneficiary of First Tracks Biotherapeutics' operations, in the context of its corporate structure and current stage, is its parent company:
- AnaptysBio, Inc. (symbol: ANAB)
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Daniel Faga, President and Chief Executive Officer
Daniel Faga has over 20 years of operating and advisory experience in the life sciences industry. He previously served as Chief Operating Officer at Mirati Therapeutics, and Chief Business Officer at Spark Therapeutics until its acquisition by Roche. He was also a managing director and founding member of Centerview Partner's healthcare advisory practice. Faga transitioned from his role as President and CEO of AnaptysBio to lead First Tracks Biotherapeutics.
Ajim Tamboli, Chief Financial Officer
Ajim Tamboli brings over 25 years of experience in life sciences as an investor and equity research analyst. He has significant strategic and financial operations leadership as CFO at multiple public and private biotech companies.
Paul F. Lizzul, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer
Paul F. Lizzul transitioned from his role as Chief Medical Officer at AnaptysBio to First Tracks Biotherapeutics.
Ben Stone, Chief Business Officer
Ben Stone is part of the initial executive leadership team for First Tracks Biotherapeutics.
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First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing antibody therapeutics for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, faces several inherent risks typical of its industry and stage of development.- Clinical Development and Regulatory Approval Failure: As a clinical-stage company, First Tracks Biotherapeutics' success is heavily dependent on the successful outcome of its ongoing clinical trials and the eventual attainment of regulatory approvals for its antibody therapeutics. Drug development is inherently risky, with a high rate of failure due to issues such as inadequate trial design, lack of efficacy, or toxicity. Even promising antibody candidates can fail due to poor developability profiles, unfavorable pharmacokinetics, or immunogenicity concerns, where the drug elicits an undesirable immune response. Failures can occur at any stage, including late-stage Phase III trials, leading to significant financial losses and delays or termination of product development. The lengthy and stringent regulatory approval process further adds to the uncertainty, with no guarantee that any of the company's product candidates will receive the necessary marketing approvals.
- Funding and Capital Access: Developing new biotherapeutics is a capital-intensive and time-consuming process, with estimated costs reaching billions of dollars per drug. Clinical trials, in particular, are becoming increasingly complex and expensive. While First Tracks Biotherapeutics launched with approximately $180 million in cash and a two-year cash runway, the need for substantial ongoing funding for research, development, and clinical trials presents a significant financial risk. Biotech firms, especially those in early stages, often struggle with accessing sufficient capital in a competitive market. The company will likely need to raise additional funds in the future, and its ability to do so on favorable terms, or at all, is crucial for its continued operations and advancement of its pipeline.
- Competition and Market Acceptance: The market for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases is highly competitive, featuring both established pharmaceutical companies and numerous other biotechnology firms developing new therapies. First Tracks Biotherapeutics' potential antibody therapeutics will need to demonstrate clear advantages over existing treatments to gain market share, even if successfully developed and approved. Gaining visibility and establishing a reputation in such a competitive landscape can be challenging for smaller biopharma companies. Furthermore, market acceptance and physician adoption of any new therapies are critical for commercial success.
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First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) is developing antibody therapeutics for several autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The addressable markets for their main products or services are as follows:
- ANB033 (CD122 antagonist): This therapeutic is in Phase 1b trials for celiac disease and eosinophilic esophagitis.
- For Celiac Disease Treatment, the global market size was estimated at approximately USD 784.59 million in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 2,182.74 million by 2034. The U.S. market alone for celiac disease treatment was estimated at USD 0.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 0.74 billion by 2030.
- For Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) Treatment, the global market size was valued at approximately USD 901 million in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 3,543 million by 2036. The U.S. market size for EoE was estimated to be approximately USD 650 million in 2025. Another estimate places the global market at USD 0.36 billion in 2025, forecast to reach USD 2.80 billion by 2030.
- Rosnilimab (pathogenic T cell depleter): This therapeutic has completed Phase 2b trials for rheumatoid arthritis.
- The global Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Therapeutics Market was estimated at USD 25.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 41.42 billion by 2033. Another report valued the global market at USD 31.77 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 53.77 billion by 2032. North America accounted for the largest revenue share, at 52.21%, of the rheumatoid arthritis therapeutics market in 2024.
- ANB101 (BDCA2 modulator): This therapeutic is in a Phase 1a trial for inflammatory diseases.
- The broader global Inflammatory Diseases Biologics Market was valued at USD 99.06 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 157.31 billion by 2033. The overall global Inflammatory Disease Market was evaluated at USD 125.00 billion in 2025 and is predicted to reach approximately USD 241.34 billion by 2035. Additionally, the global Immunomodulators Market, which encompasses biologics for autoimmune and inflammatory disorders, was estimated at USD 263.73 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 415.24 billion in 2032. North America holds the largest market share in the immunomodulators market, at approximately 40%.
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First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, is expected to drive its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years primarily through the advancement of its pipeline of antibody therapeutics. As a company focused on developing treatments for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, its revenue generation will largely depend on the successful progression of its clinical programs towards commercialization or strategic partnerships. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for First Tracks Biotherapeutics:- Advancement of Lead Pipeline Programs through Clinical Trials: The successful progression and positive data readouts from its key clinical-stage programs are crucial. First Tracks Biotherapeutics is advancing ANB033, a CD122 antagonist, currently in a Phase 1b trial for celiac disease and eosinophilic esophagitis, with Phase 1b celiac disease data anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026 and eosinophilic esophagitis data in mid-2027. Additionally, rosnilimab, a pathogenic T-cell depleter, has completed a Phase 2b trial for rheumatoid arthritis, with a Phase 3 development update expected in the second quarter of 2026. Positive outcomes from these trials will be significant drivers.
- Potential for Future Product Launches and Commercialization: Although direct product revenue may be beyond the immediate 2-3 year horizon for a clinical-stage company, successful completion of late-stage clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals for its drug candidates would establish the foundation for future product launches. Analysts have highlighted the potential for ANB033 to achieve "blockbuster peak sales" exceeding $3 billion, underscoring the long-term commercial potential that successful development could unlock.
- Strategic Partnerships and Licensing Agreements: As is common for biotechnology companies, securing strategic partnerships and licensing agreements for its pipeline assets could provide significant non-product revenue streams. These could include upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development and regulatory achievements, and future royalties, which would contribute to revenue growth. The company's spin-off from AnaptysBio, which now focuses on managing royalty streams, highlights the strategic importance of such collaborations in the biotech landscape.
- Addressing Unmet Medical Needs in Immunology: First Tracks Biotherapeutics' focus on innovative immunology therapeutics for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases positions it in a market with significant unmet needs and growth potential. For instance, ANB033, being developed for celiac disease, could represent a new treatment paradigm beyond the current strict gluten-free diet, potentially capturing a substantial market share if successful. Successful development of therapies that address these critical unmet medical needs will be a key driver of market penetration and, consequently, revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- First Tracks Biotherapeutics was launched as an independent public company on April 20, 2026, through a pro rata distribution to AnaptysBio, Inc. shareholders, who received one share of First Tracks Biotherapeutics common stock for every one share of AnaptysBio common stock held.
- In connection with its spin-off, First Tracks Biotherapeutics issued 5,791,478 shares of common stock in a private placement at $13.81 per share, generating approximately $80 million in gross proceeds.
Inbound Investments
- First Tracks Biotherapeutics launched with an initial cash balance of $180 million, which included $100 million transferred from AnaptysBio, Inc.
- The company secured $80 million in gross proceeds from an oversubscribed private placement financing with participation from new and existing institutional investors.
- Key investors in the private placement included 683 Capital Partners, Adage Capital Partners, Affinity Asset Advisors, Ally Bridge Group, Janus Henderson Investors, Palo Alto Investors LP, Point72, StemPoint Capital LP, TCGX, Trails Edge Capital Partners, Vestal Point Capital, and Woodline Partners LP.
Capital Expenditures
- First Tracks Biotherapeutics reported minimal capital expenditures, with a value of approximately $0.1 million in recent periods (potentially 2026).
- Proceeds from the private placement are intended for general corporate purposes, including the clinical development of ANB033, a CD122 antagonist, which is a primary focus for the company's capital allocation.
- The company launched with an initial two-year cash runway to support its clinical development programs, including ANB033 for celiac disease and eosinophilic esophagitis, rosnilimab for rheumatoid arthritis, and ANB101.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8 |
| Op Inc LTM | -164 |
| FCF LTM | -151 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -118 |
| CFO LTM | -150 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -117 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -8.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.6 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| P/Op Inc | -2.9 |
| P/EBIT | -3.0 |
| P/E | -3.0 |
| P/CFO | -3.1 |
| Total Yield | -1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 61.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 63.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 34.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Research and development activities to deliver immunology therapeutics for autoimmune and | 0 |
| Total | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Research and development activities to deliver immunology therapeutics for autoimmune and | -118 |
| Total | -118 |
| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Research and development activities to deliver immunology therapeutics for autoimmune and | -106 |
| Total | -106 |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -6.9% | -7.7% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -7.7% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -7.7% | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ecor1, Capital, Llc | See Note | Sell | 4222026 | 13.81 | 4,705,575 | 64,999,990 | 43,850,901 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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