Tearsheet

Theriva Biologics (TOVX)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.2195 | Market Cap: $2.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Theriva Biologics (TOVX)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $0.2195
Market Cap: $2.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.2
1   Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 158%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -147%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172%
2 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.2
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 158%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TOVX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -47% movement in Theriva Biologics (TOVX) stock from 8/31/2025 to 12/15/2025:

1. Dilutive Financing Events: The company engaged in multiple capital-raising activities, including a warrant inducement transaction that generated $4.0 million in gross proceeds in October 2025. Additionally, a public offering of up to 6.8 million shares of common stock and accompanying warrants at $1.10 per unit was expected to raise approximately $7.5 million, which led to a sharp stock decline of 41% on the day, with a further 7.4% drop after hours. These actions likely resulted in significant shareholder dilution.

2. Weak Financial Health and Limited Cash Runway: Around October 24, 2025, Theriva Biologics had a low market capitalization, reportedly between $5.2 million and $8 million, and was described as having a "WEAK" financial health score, rapidly burning through available funds. The Q3 2025 financial results, reported on November 12, 2025, indicated that the company's cash reserves would only fund operations into the first quarter of 2027, highlighting ongoing financial pressures.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TOVX Return-24%-29%-83%-5%-84%-87%-100%
Peers Return19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TOVX Win Rate67%25%17%42%42%25% 
Peers Win Rate39%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TOVX Max Drawdown-47%-29%-85%-14%-89%-89% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REPL, GNLX, CADL, CGON, ONCY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTOVXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-96.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2898.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven64 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven446 days120 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Theriva Biologics's stock fell -96.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -96.7% loss requires a 2898.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Theriva Biologics (TOVX)

Better Bets than Theriva Biologics (TOVX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TOVX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Theriva Biologics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TOVXREPLGNLXCADLCGONONCYMedian
NameTheriva .ReplimuneGenelux Candel T.CG Oncol.Oncolyti. 
Mkt Price0.2210.184.316.3540.940.995.33
Mkt Cap0.00.90.20.33.10.10.3
Rev LTM0000200
Op Inc LTM-27-318-34-41-180-35-38
FCF LTM-18-270-24-34-117-26-30
FCF 3Y Avg-18-205-21-32-76-27-30
CFO LTM-18-263-23-34-117-26-30
CFO 3Y Avg-18-199-21-32-76-27-29

Growth & Margins

TOVXREPLGNLXCADLCGONONCYMedian
NameTheriva .ReplimuneGenelux Candel T.CG Oncol.Oncolyti. 
Rev Chg LTM---100.0%-217.8%-58.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg---98.2%----98.2%
Rev Chg Q----3,774.4%-3,774.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM----294.6%-294.6%
Op Mgn LTM-----8,285.3%--8,285.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-----14,894.4%--14,894.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM----20,260.8%-20,260.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-----5,372.2%--5,372.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-----11,550.7%--11,550.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-----5,387.7%--5,387.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-----11,557.1%--11,557.1%

Valuation

TOVXREPLGNLXCADLCGONONCYMedian
NameTheriva .ReplimuneGenelux Candel T.CG Oncol.Oncolyti. 
Mkt Cap0.00.90.20.33.10.10.3
P/S----1,444.9-1,444.9
P/EBIT--1.3-5.0-12.9-17.2--9.0
P/E-0.1-1.2-5.1-15.3-20.7-4.0-4.6
P/CFO-0.2-1.5-7.0-10.4-26.9-5.4-6.2
Total Yield-668.1%-80.6%-19.5%-6.5%-4.8%-24.9%-22.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--35.2%-15.8%-51.4%---35.2%
D/E-0.20.00.00.0-0.0
Net D/E--0.6-0.1-0.3-0.2--0.3

Returns

TOVXREPLGNLXCADLCGONONCYMedian
NameTheriva .ReplimuneGenelux Candel T.CG Oncol.Oncolyti. 
1M Rtn-19.9%13.2%-19.0%36.9%-0.2%-4.5%-2.3%
3M Rtn-47.7%77.7%9.1%32.6%22.8%-22.4%16.0%
6M Rtn-54.7%4.1%40.8%23.8%58.3%63.3%32.3%
12M Rtn-81.6%-18.9%85.0%-5.9%42.4%22.1%8.1%
3Y Rtn-98.5%-62.3%-236.0%--45.7%-54.0%
1M Excs Rtn-26.7%13.0%-27.0%29.4%4.2%-12.2%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn-50.8%76.3%6.7%27.7%15.1%-23.1%10.9%
6M Excs Rtn-68.9%-10.1%26.6%9.6%44.1%49.1%18.1%
12M Excs Rtn-96.3%-33.8%45.3%24.6%8.4%2.5%5.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-172.1%-129.5%-238.8%--115.1%-122.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discovery and development of oncolytic viruses intended to overcome the protective barrier557270817
Total557270817


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,479,067
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202518.9%
Average Daily Volume2,355,492
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.05
Basic Shares Quantity9,676,521
Short % of Basic Shares25.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/20258.0%-9.1% 
8/11/202514.0%24.8%7.9%
3/6/2025-4.2%-21.3%-23.4%
11/12/2024-23.1%-33.3%-38.7%
8/13/2024-0.3%-32.3%-24.8%
3/25/2024-5.0%-14.7%-27.5%
11/13/2023-6.3%-12.7%19.1%
8/8/2023-2.2%-5.1%-18.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive587
# Negative141112
Median Positive8.0%7.6%11.1%
Median Negative-3.0%-12.7%-23.4%
Max Positive37.6%36.9%22.9%
Max Negative-23.1%-33.3%-38.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023325202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022330202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021316202210-K 12/31/2021