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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 188%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 188%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

REPL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The public company Replimune (REPL) experienced significant stock movement, including a 95% change, during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by a series of regulatory decisions, clinical data presentations, and financial updates.

1. Continued negative sentiment and stock decline following the July 2025 FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL) for RP1. Although the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued the CRL for Replimune's Biologics License Application (BLA) for RP1 in advanced melanoma on July 22, 2025, the repercussions and continued downward pressure on the stock were evident within the specified period. The CRL, which indicated the FDA would not approve the application in its current form due to concerns with the IGNYTE trial design, had caused the stock to plummet by 77% initially, and this negative trend continued, with Replimune's stock dropping significantly on August 4, 2025, due to investor concerns.

2. Uncertainty after the Type A meeting with the FDA regarding RP1's accelerated approval pathway. On September 18, 2025, Replimune announced that a clear path forward under the accelerated approval pathway for RP1 had not been determined following a Type A meeting with the FDA. This news led to a further substantial decline, with the stock experiencing an intraday drop of approximately 45%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
REPL Return166%-29%0%-69%44%-13%-27%
Peers Return42%10%-34%7%-4%18%26%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
REPL Win Rate58%25%50%25%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate40%42%27%46%37%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
REPL Max Drawdown-38%-33%-51%-75%-41%-77% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-23%-47%-31%-29%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventREPLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven575.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven524 days120 days

Compare to PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS


In The Past

Replimune's stock fell -85.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -85.2% loss requires a 575.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Replimune (REPL)

Better Bets than Replimune (REPL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to REPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Replimune

Peers to compare with:

Financials

REPLPTGXANIKCHRSACSBALPSMedian
NameReplimuneProtagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis ALPS  
Mkt Price10.5387.339.491.23-1.179.49
Mkt Cap1.05.60.10.1--0.6
Rev LTM0209113278--161
Op Inc LTM-31819-12-93---53
FCF LTM-270641-90---45
FCF 3Y Avg-20558-4-138---71
CFO LTM-263658-90---41
CFO 3Y Avg-199594-138---67

Growth & Margins

REPLPTGXANIKCHRSACSBALPSMedian
NameReplimuneProtagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis ALPS  
Rev Chg LTM--35.4%30.6%152.1%--30.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg---6.2%30.9%--12.3%
Rev Chg Q-0.8%-5.9%91.2%--0.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.0%-1.5%2.0%--0.0%
Op Mgn LTM-9.1%-11.0%-33.4%---11.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--2.1%-108.0%---52.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--2.4%-2.9%1.6%---2.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.3%7.2%-32.5%--7.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--3.9%-70.9%---33.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-30.5%0.6%-32.5%--0.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg---3.4%-71.0%---37.2%

Valuation

REPLPTGXANIKCHRSACSBALPSMedian
NameReplimuneProtagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis ALPS  
Mkt Cap1.05.60.10.1--0.6
P/S-20.21.20.7--1.2
P/EBIT-1.3222.9-10.92.2--0.5
P/E-1.292.3-4.11.2---0.0
P/CFO-1.564.716.7-2.1--7.6
Total Yield-80.6%1.1%-24.4%81.3%---11.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-35.2%-0.8%-1.3%-56.9%---18.3%
D/E0.20.00.20.2--0.2
Net D/E-0.6-0.1-0.2-0.8---0.4

Returns

REPLPTGXANIKCHRSACSBALPSMedian
NameReplimuneProtagon.Anika Th.Coherus .Acesis ALPS  
1M Rtn17.4%14.2%-1.5%-20.6%-23.2%14.2%
3M Rtn81.2%46.5%4.4%-6.1%--25.5%
6M Rtn8.0%62.3%-15.2%52.7%--30.3%
12M Rtn-20.0%115.2%-46.0%-28.1%---24.1%
3Y Rtn-47.2%1,019.6%-68.8%-81.8%---58.0%
1M Excs Rtn16.1%12.9%-2.7%-21.9%-22.0%12.9%
3M Excs Rtn60.6%38.5%0.4%-10.4%--19.4%
6M Excs Rtn-7.5%46.8%-30.6%37.2%--14.9%
12M Excs Rtn-35.7%88.5%-59.3%-23.6%---29.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-119.7%989.6%-141.1%-154.6%---130.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Developing and commercializing novel oncolytic immunotherapies in order to treat cancer488647461543234
Total488647461543234


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,697,152
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.7%
Average Daily Volume2,764,511
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.04
Basic Shares Quantity91,915,769
Short % of Basic Shares18.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025522202510-K 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024516202410-K 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023518202310-K 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022519202210-K 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-Q 12/31/2021