Replimune (REPL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $10.45 | Market Cap: $960.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Replimune (REPL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $10.45Market Cap: $960.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Replimune (REPL) experienced significant stock movement, including a 95% change, during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by a series of regulatory decisions, clinical data presentations, and financial updates.
1. Continued negative sentiment and stock decline following the July 2025 FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL) for RP1. Although the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued the CRL for Replimune's Biologics License Application (BLA) for RP1 in advanced melanoma on July 22, 2025, the repercussions and continued downward pressure on the stock were evident within the specified period. The CRL, which indicated the FDA would not approve the application in its current form due to concerns with the IGNYTE trial design, had caused the stock to plummet by 77% initially, and this negative trend continued, with Replimune's stock dropping significantly on August 4, 2025, due to investor concerns.
2. Uncertainty after the Type A meeting with the FDA regarding RP1's accelerated approval pathway. On September 18, 2025, Replimune announced that a clear path forward under the accelerated approval pathway for RP1 had not been determined following a Type A meeting with the FDA. This news led to a further substantial decline, with the stock experiencing an intraday drop of approximately 45%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REPL Return | 166% | -29% | 0% | -69% | 44% | -13% | -27% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 10% | -34% | 7% | -4% | 18% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REPL Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 42% | 27% | 46% | 37% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REPL Max Drawdown | -38% | -33% | -51% | -75% | -41% | -77% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -23% | -47% | -31% | -29% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 575.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 524 days | 120 days |
Compare to PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS
In The Past
Replimune's stock fell -85.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -85.2% loss requires a 575.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Replimune
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 161 |
| Op Inc LTM | -53 |
| FCF LTM | -45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -71 |
| CFO LTM | -41 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -67 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -52.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -33.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -37.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 0.5 |
| P/E | -0.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | -11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -58.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -130.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5222025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5192022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
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