Replimune (REPL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.6 | Market Cap: $882.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Replimune (REPL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.6Market Cap: $882.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% | ||
| Key risksREPL key risks include [1] the FDA's rejection of its lead drug candidate due to a flawed clinical trial, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -318 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 188% |
| Key risksREPL key risks include [1] the FDA's rejection of its lead drug candidate due to a flawed clinical trial, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REPL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting Replimune's (REPL) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for RP1 Biologics License Application (BLA) on July 22, 2025. This effectively rejected the drug's approval for advanced melanoma, triggering a massive sell-off and causing the company's stock to plummet by 77% in a single day.
2. Replimune announced on September 19, 2025, that a clear path for accelerated approval of RP1 had not been determined after a Type A meeting with the FDA. This news led to a further approximately 45% drop in the company's shares during intraday trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REPL Return | 166% | -29% | 0% | -69% | 44% | -18% | -31% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REPL Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REPL Max Drawdown | -38% | -33% | -51% | -75% | -41% | -77% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 575.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 524 days | 120 days |
Compare to PTGX, ANIK, CHRS, ACSB, ALPS
In The Past
Replimune's stock fell -85.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2021. A -85.2% loss requires a 575.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REPL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Replimune
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 161 |
| Op Inc LTM | -53 |
| FCF LTM | -45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -71 |
| CFO LTM | -41 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -67 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -52.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -33.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -37.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 0.5 |
| P/E | -0.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | -11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -18.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 33.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -66.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 29.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -138.1% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.9% | 5.4% | 25.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.4% | -7.5% | 15.1% |
| 5/22/2025 | 3.5% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 7.3% | 7.2% | -7.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -2.5% | -13.8% | 1.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 2.7% | 7.2% | 12.7% |
| 5/16/2024 | -1.3% | -12.9% | 22.8% |
| 2/8/2024 | 4.0% | -7.4% | 21.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 5.4% | 13.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -9.3% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 10.8% | 25.1% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -30.7% | -42.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5222025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5192022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |