Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $1.01 | Market Cap: $102.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $1.01Market Cap: $102.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 | ||
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONCY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Increased Net Loss in Q3 2025.**
Oncolytics Biotech reported a net loss of $14.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from $9.5 million in the same period of the prior year, primarily attributed to higher general and administrative expenses. Despite beating consensus estimates for Earnings Per Share (EPS), this rising net loss could have contributed to investor caution regarding the company's financial performance.
**2. Ongoing Clinical Development and Regulatory Uncertainty.**
While Oncolytics Biotech announced updates on its planned registration-directed clinical trial for first-line pancreatic cancer, including a scheduled meeting with the FDA in mid-November 2025 to discuss study details, the final trial design had not yet been approved by regulators. Such pending regulatory milestones and the inherent risks of clinical development in a biotech company can create investor uncertainty.
**3. Future Earnings Expectations.**
Despite surpassing Q3 2025 EPS estimates, the company's earnings were projected to decrease in the subsequent year, with expected EPS falling from -$0.28 to -$0.30 per share. This outlook on future profitability could have tempered positive sentiment and contributed to a downward pressure on the stock.
**4. Short-to-Mid-Term Bearish Market Sentiment.**
Market analyses and forecasts during the specified period indicated a general short-to-mid-term bearish outlook for ONCY stock. One prediction, updated on December 10, 2025, anticipated a downward trend, with the stock dipping as low as $0.9382 by December 14, 2025, representing a -4.76% decline from then-current rates. Technical signals also leaned towards a bearish outlook in the mid-term.
**5. Continued Cash Burn for a Clinical-Stage Company.**
As of June 30, 2025, Oncolytics Biotech reported $14.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, with a projected cash runway into the first quarter of 2026. For a clinical-stage biotechnology company with ongoing trials, the continuous need for capital to fund research and development, despite efforts to limit dilutive financing, can remain a background concern for investors and contribute to fluctuations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONCY Return | -50% | -42% | 17% | -17% | -32% | 9% | -79% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 23% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONCY Win Rate | 42% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 44% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONCY Max Drawdown | -79% | -42% | -39% | -32% | -45% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REPL, CGON, GNLX, CADL, AMGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 445.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 383.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -94.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1624.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 276 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Oncolytics Biotech's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 445.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oncolytics Biotech
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -38 |
| FCF LTM | -30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -30 |
| CFO LTM | -30 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -29 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -43.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1,893.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 148.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4,130.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -7,434.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 10,130.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -2,667.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -5,759.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2,677.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -5,764.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 724.6 |
| P/EBIT | -5.0 |
| P/E | -4.6 |
| P/CFO | -6.2 |
| Total Yield | -13.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -25.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3032023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |