Tearsheet

Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $1.01 | Market Cap: $102.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $1.01
Market Cap: $102.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 1.0
1   Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
2 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 1.0
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ONCY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Increased Net Loss in Q3 2025.**

Oncolytics Biotech reported a net loss of $14.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from $9.5 million in the same period of the prior year, primarily attributed to higher general and administrative expenses. Despite beating consensus estimates for Earnings Per Share (EPS), this rising net loss could have contributed to investor caution regarding the company's financial performance.

**2. Ongoing Clinical Development and Regulatory Uncertainty.**

While Oncolytics Biotech announced updates on its planned registration-directed clinical trial for first-line pancreatic cancer, including a scheduled meeting with the FDA in mid-November 2025 to discuss study details, the final trial design had not yet been approved by regulators. Such pending regulatory milestones and the inherent risks of clinical development in a biotech company can create investor uncertainty.

**3. Future Earnings Expectations.**

Despite surpassing Q3 2025 EPS estimates, the company's earnings were projected to decrease in the subsequent year, with expected EPS falling from -$0.28 to -$0.30 per share. This outlook on future profitability could have tempered positive sentiment and contributed to a downward pressure on the stock.

**4. Short-to-Mid-Term Bearish Market Sentiment.**

Market analyses and forecasts during the specified period indicated a general short-to-mid-term bearish outlook for ONCY stock. One prediction, updated on December 10, 2025, anticipated a downward trend, with the stock dipping as low as $0.9382 by December 14, 2025, representing a -4.76% decline from then-current rates. Technical signals also leaned towards a bearish outlook in the mid-term.

**5. Continued Cash Burn for a Clinical-Stage Company.**

As of June 30, 2025, Oncolytics Biotech reported $14.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, with a projected cash runway into the first quarter of 2026. For a clinical-stage biotechnology company with ongoing trials, the continuous need for capital to fund research and development, despite efforts to limit dilutive financing, can remain a background concern for investors and contribute to fluctuations.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ONCY Return-50%-42%17%-17%-32%9%-79%
Peers Return23%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ONCY Win Rate42%25%42%33%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate44%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ONCY Max Drawdown-79%-42%-39%-32%-45%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REPL, CGON, GNLX, CADL, AMGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventONCYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-81.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven445.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-79.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven383.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-94.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1624.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven276 days1480 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Oncolytics Biotech's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 445.9% gain to breakeven.

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About Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)

Better Bets than Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ONCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Oncolytics Biotech

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ONCYREPLCGONGNLXCADLAMGNMedian
NameOncolyti.ReplimuneCG Oncol.Genelux Candel T.Amgen  
Mkt Price0.9910.1840.944.316.35317.748.27
Mkt Cap0.10.93.10.20.3170.90.6
Rev LTM0020035,9710
Op Inc LTM-35-318-180-34-418,671-38
FCF LTM-26-270-117-24-3411,539-30
FCF 3Y Avg-27-205-76-21-329,067-30
CFO LTM-26-263-117-23-3413,126-30
CFO 3Y Avg-27-199-76-21-3210,322-29

Growth & Margins

ONCYREPLCGONGNLXCADLAMGNMedian
NameOncolyti.ReplimuneCG Oncol.Genelux Candel T.Amgen  
Rev Chg LTM--217.8%-100.0%-10.6%10.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg----98.2%-11.2%-43.5%
Rev Chg Q--3,774.4%--12.4%1,893.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--294.6%--3.0%148.8%
Op Mgn LTM---8,285.3%--24.1%-4,130.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg---14,894.4%--25.4%-7,434.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--20,260.8%--0.6%10,130.7%
CFO/Rev LTM---5,372.2%--36.5%-2,667.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg---11,550.7%--32.7%-5,759.0%
FCF/Rev LTM---5,387.7%--32.1%-2,677.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg---11,557.1%--28.8%-5,764.2%

Valuation

ONCYREPLCGONGNLXCADLAMGNMedian
NameOncolyti.ReplimuneCG Oncol.Genelux Candel T.Amgen  
Mkt Cap0.10.93.10.20.3170.90.6
P/S--1,444.9--4.2724.6
P/EBIT--1.3-17.2-5.0-12.913.7-5.0
P/E-4.0-1.2-20.7-5.1-15.321.7-4.6
P/CFO-5.4-1.5-26.9-7.0-10.411.6-6.2
Total Yield-24.9%-80.6%-4.8%-19.5%-6.5%7.9%-13.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--35.2%--15.8%-51.4%5.9%-25.5%
D/E-0.20.00.00.00.40.0
Net D/E--0.6-0.2-0.1-0.30.3-0.2

Returns

ONCYREPLCGONGNLXCADLAMGNMedian
NameOncolyti.ReplimuneCG Oncol.Genelux Candel T.Amgen  
1M Rtn-4.5%13.2%-0.2%-19.0%36.9%-5.6%-2.3%
3M Rtn-22.4%77.7%22.8%9.1%32.6%15.8%19.3%
6M Rtn63.3%4.1%58.3%40.8%23.8%9.3%32.3%
12M Rtn22.1%-18.9%42.4%85.0%-5.9%21.2%21.6%
3Y Rtn-45.7%-62.3%--236.0%31.4%-7.2%
1M Excs Rtn-12.2%13.0%4.2%-27.0%29.4%-4.5%-0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-23.1%76.3%15.1%6.7%27.7%13.4%14.3%
6M Excs Rtn49.1%-10.1%44.1%26.6%9.6%-5.0%18.1%
12M Excs Rtn2.5%-33.8%8.4%45.3%24.6%5.8%7.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-115.1%-129.5%--238.8%-51.2%-83.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment3937463420
Total3937463420


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,185,385
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume698,831
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.56
Basic Shares Quantity101,315,089
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025111220256-K 9/30/2025
630202580820256-K 6/30/2025
331202551420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024307202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450920246-K 3/31/2024
12312023312202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023110320236-K 9/30/2023
630202381420236-K 6/30/2023
331202350520236-K 3/31/2023
12312022303202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110720226-K 9/30/2022
630202281120226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021303202220-F 12/31/2021