Candel Therapeutics (CADL)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $10.58 | Market Cap: $659.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Candel Therapeutics (CADL)
Market Price (8/8/2026): $10.58Market Cap: $659.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% Key risksCADL key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the clinical trial success and regulatory approval of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 21% |
| Key risksCADL key risks include [1] its critical dependence on the clinical trial success and regulatory approval of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Candel Therapeutics (CADL) stock has gained about 70% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Candel Therapeutics reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, demonstrating a solid financial position.
The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 14, 2026, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.14, significantly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.30 by $0.16. Furthermore, Candel Therapeutics held $194.8 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, which is projected to fund its operations into fiscal Q1 2028, providing a substantial runway for its clinical programs and potential commercialization efforts.
2. The company presented positive extended follow-up data for its lead candidate, CAN-2409, in localized prostate cancer and initiated a global pivotal Phase 3 trial in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
At the American Urological Association (AUA) 2026 Annual Meeting on May 15, 2026, Candel Therapeutics unveiled new extended follow-up data from its randomized Phase 3 trial of aglatimagene besadenovec (CAN-2409) in intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer, showing consistent and accumulating clinical benefit. Building on this, the company plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in localized prostate cancer in fiscal Q4 2026. Additionally, in fiscal Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026), Candel initiated the global pivotal Phase 3 AURORA trial for CAN-2409 combined with pembrolizumab in patients with metastatic non-squamous NSCLC whose disease has progressed despite prior immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment.
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Candel Therapeutics (CADL) stock has gained about 70% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Candel Therapeutics reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, demonstrating a solid financial position.
The company announced its fiscal Q1 2026 results on May 14, 2026, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.14, significantly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.30 by $0.16. Furthermore, Candel Therapeutics held $194.8 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, which is projected to fund its operations into fiscal Q1 2028, providing a substantial runway for its clinical programs and potential commercialization efforts.
2. The company presented positive extended follow-up data for its lead candidate, CAN-2409, in localized prostate cancer and initiated a global pivotal Phase 3 trial in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
At the American Urological Association (AUA) 2026 Annual Meeting on May 15, 2026, Candel Therapeutics unveiled new extended follow-up data from its randomized Phase 3 trial of aglatimagene besadenovec (CAN-2409) in intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer, showing consistent and accumulating clinical benefit. Building on this, the company plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in localized prostate cancer in fiscal Q4 2026. Additionally, in fiscal Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026), Candel initiated the global pivotal Phase 3 AURORA trial for CAN-2409 combined with pembrolizumab in patients with metastatic non-squamous NSCLC whose disease has progressed despite prior immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment.
3. Multiple analysts issued or reiterated "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings and increased price targets, signaling strong confidence in Candel's pipeline.
During the period, several Wall Street analysts provided optimistic outlooks for CADL. H.C. Wainwright maintained a "Buy" rating with a $23 price target on July 29, 2026, and Stifel Nicolaus initiated a "Buy" rating with a $22 target on July 13, 2026. Canaccord Genuity also maintained a "Buy" rating and a $25 price target on May 18, 2026. These ratings contributed to a consensus "Strong Buy" rating and an average analyst price target of $20.50 as of July 29, 2026, indicating a potential upside of 104.80% from the stock's price at that time.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.4% change in CADL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.18 | 10.59 | 71.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 62 | -11.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CADL | 71.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.5% | -6.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 81.3% change in CADL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.84 | 10.59 | 81.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 62 | -12.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CADL | 81.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.5% | 15.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.3% change in CADL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.45 | 10.59 | 64.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 62 | -19.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CADL | 64.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 33.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 28.7% | 17.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 880.6% change in CADL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2233720368547763E17% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.08 | 10.59 | 880.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | |
| P/S Multiple | 335.8 | ∞ | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 62 | -53.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CADL | 880.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 8.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.3% | 1.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CADL Return | 12% | -77% | -18% | 490% | -35% | 87% | 51% |
| Peers Return | -33% | -22% | 9% | -36% | 3% | 15% | -57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CADL Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 36% | 40% | 38% | 45% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CADL Max Drawdown | - | -82% | -75% | -73% | -64% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -68% | -68% | -69% | -70% | -50% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: REPL, CGON, TOVX, GNLX, ONCY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CADL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 440.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 560 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Candel Therapeutics's stock fell -16.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 19.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CADL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 440.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 560 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Candel Therapeutics's stock fell -16.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 19.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Candel Therapeutics (CADL)
Candel Therapeutics (CADL) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing innovative immunotherapies for cancer patients. The company's core mission is to create new treatments that harness and enhance the body's own immune system to recognize and fight various types of cancer.
The company's primary product candidates are CAN-2409 and CAN-3110. CAN-2409 is an advanced immunotherapy currently undergoing multiple clinical trials, including Phase III for prostate cancer and Phase II for pancreatic and lung cancers. It has also completed earlier-stage trials for high-grade glioma. CAN-3110 is another immunotherapy in Candel Therapeutics' pipeline, currently in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma.
Candel Therapeutics primarily serves the global oncology market, targeting patients afflicted with difficult-to-treat cancers such as prostate, pancreatic, and lung cancer, as well as specific brain cancers like high-grade glioma and recurrent glioblastoma. The company aims to provide novel therapeutic options for these patient populations who often have limited treatment alternatives.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Candel Therapeutics (CADL):
- Moderna for cancer immunotherapies.
- A clinical-stage biotech aiming to be the next Vertex Pharmaceuticals, but solely focused on developing novel cancer immunotherapies.
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Candel Therapeutics' major product candidates are:
- CAN-2409: An immunotherapy being developed for the treatment of pancreatic, prostate, lung cancer, and high-grade glioma.
- CAN-3110: An immunotherapy in early-stage clinical trials for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma.
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Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (CADL) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of immunotherapies for cancer patients. As such, its product candidates (CAN-2409 and CAN-3110) are currently in various stages of clinical trials (Phase I, II, and III).
At this stage of development, Candel Therapeutics does not have major customers in the traditional sense of selling approved products or services to other companies or individuals. The company's primary activities involve research, development, and conducting clinical trials to gather data for regulatory approval. Revenues for such companies typically come from equity financing, grants, or potential collaboration agreements, rather than product sales to customers.
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Key Risks to the Business
- Clinical Trial and Regulatory Risk: The primary risk to Candel Therapeutics stems from the uncertainty of successfully completing clinical trials and obtaining regulatory approvals for its drug candidates. The company's lead candidates, CAN-2409 and CAN-3110, are in various stages of clinical development, including Phase II and Phase III trials. Despite positive interim or topline data, the success rate for drugs advancing from clinical trials to market approval is low, typically less than 12%. Even if clinical trials demonstrate efficacy and safety, there is no guarantee of FDA approval, and the regulatory process itself is complex and lengthy. Furthermore, even with approval, there remains a risk related to the effective execution of the commercial launch and market acceptance of these novel oncolytic viral immunotherapies.
- Financial Risk and Capital Dependence: As a clinical-stage company, Candel Therapeutics currently generates no revenue and operates at a net loss, relying heavily on external funding to finance its research and development activities and other operations. While the company has secured financing, including a term loan facility, to extend its cash runway, it continues to incur significant operating losses driven by rising R&D expenses. Future capital raises may be necessary, and there is a risk that such funding may not be available on favorable terms, or at all. Additionally, restrictive covenants in debt agreements could limit the company's financial and operational flexibility and increase the risk of default.
- Market Acceptance and Commercialization Risk: Even upon successful regulatory approval, Candel Therapeutics' products face the risk of not achieving significant market acceptance or generating substantial sales. The biopharmaceutical market is highly competitive, and Candel's viral-based immunotherapy approach may face skepticism or challenges in widespread adoption by healthcare providers and patients. For instance, while CAN-2409 has shown promising results in prostate cancer, questions remain regarding its differentiation and value proposition given existing treatment options. Pricing pressures and the need to demonstrate compelling value to justify the cost of novel therapies also pose significant commercialization challenges.
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Candel Therapeutics (symbol: CADL) focuses on developing immunotherapies for various cancers. The addressable markets for its main product candidates are outlined below:
| Product/Service | Disease | Addressable Market Size | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAN-2409 | Pancreatic Cancer | USD 3.25 billion (in 2025) | Global |
| CAN-2409 | Prostate Cancer | USD 17.0 billion (in 2024) | Global |
| CAN-2409 | Lung Cancer | USD 35.1 billion (in 2024) | Global |
| CAN-2409 | High-Grade Glioma | ~USD 830 million (in 2023) | 7 Major Markets (US, EU4, UK, Japan) |
| CAN-3110 | Recurrent Glioblastoma | USD 380.6 million (in 2025) | Global |
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Candel Therapeutics (CADL), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, is expected to drive its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through the following key initiatives:
-
Commercialization of CAN-2409 in Localized Prostate Cancer: The primary driver of future revenue growth is the anticipated commercial launch of CAN-2409 for the treatment of localized prostate cancer. Candel Therapeutics plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in this indication in the fourth quarter of 2026. If approved, this would mark the company's first commercial product, with analysts forecasting the commencement of revenue generation in 2027, significantly increasing in 2028.
-
Advancement of CAN-2409 in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): The initiation of a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial for CAN-2409 in metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is expected in the second quarter of 2026. Positive outcomes from this late-stage trial would significantly expand the potential market for CAN-2409, increasing the asset's value and laying the groundwork for substantial future revenue growth, potentially through commercialization or strategic partnerships beyond the immediate 2-3 year horizon.
-
Strategic Collaborations and Licensing Agreements: As Candel Therapeutics progresses its lead therapeutic candidates through clinical development and toward potential commercialization, positive clinical data, particularly for CAN-2409, could lead to further strategic collaborations or out-licensing agreements. Such partnerships could generate upfront payments, milestone payments, or royalty streams, contributing to the company's revenue. Candel has already established a royalty funding agreement tied to the FDA approval of CAN-2409 in prostate cancer and a commercial collaboration for strategic input.
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Share Issuance
- Candel Therapeutics completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in July 2021, raising $79.1 million by offering 9,000,000 shares of common stock.
- In December 2024, the company closed an underwritten public offering, generating approximately $92 million in gross proceeds from the sale of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
- Candel Therapeutics completed a follow-on equity offering in February 2026, raising approximately $100 million in gross proceeds from the issuance of 18,348,624 common shares at $5.45 per share.
Inbound Investments
- In October 2025, Candel Therapeutics secured a five-year, $130 million term loan facility with Trinity Capital Inc., with an initial $50 million drawn at closing.
- In February 2026, Candel announced a $100 million royalty funding agreement with RTW Investments, LP, contingent on FDA approval of aglatimagene in localized prostate cancer.
- As of April 2025, institutional investors held approximately 41.99% of Candel Therapeutics' shares, reflecting significant external investment in the company's equity.
Capital Expenditures
- Candel Therapeutics invested $16K in capital expenditures during fiscal year 2024.
- For Q3 2025, capital expenditures amounted to $144K.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Candel Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -45 |
| FCF LTM | -38 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -30 |
| CFO LTM | -37 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -29 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1,030.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -36.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -21.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -7,254.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -15,058.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -8,377.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -4,789.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -10,171.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4,796.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10,191.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development, and potential commercialization of off-the-shelf viral immunotherapies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development, and potential commercialization of off-the-shelf viral immunotherapies | -48 | -33 | -38 |
| Total | -48 | -33 | -38 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development, and potential commercialization of off-the-shelf viral immunotherapies | -38 | -55 | -38 |
| Total | -38 | -55 | -38 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/27/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.31 | $6.64 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.7% | 59.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.0% | 71.2% |
| Downside Capture | 135.39 | 161.27 |
| Upside Capture | 211.10 | 191.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.1% | 33.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.34 | 1.44 | 1.32 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 3.85 | 1.16 | 0.31 | 2.33 | 2.19 | 1.73 |
| Down Beta | -1.81 | 2.15 | 1.93 | 1.36 | 1.63 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | 141% | 212% | 300% | 295% | 287% | 526% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 35 | 65 | 124 | 366 |
| Down Capture | 180% | 67% | 48% | 121% | 138% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 27 | 58 | 120 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CADL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CADL | 78.1% | 71.1% | 1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 28.7% | 15.5% | 1.42 | 16.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 33.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 11.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.9% | -1.23 | 30.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CADL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CADL | 6.9% | 164.9% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.2% | 15.0% | 0.23 | 5.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 12.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 5.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.8% | 53.0% | 0.35 | 11.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CADL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CADL | 4.2% | 164.7% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.6% | 0.49 | 5.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 12.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 5.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 11.1% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -0.3% | -13.8% | -4.3% |
| 3/12/2026 | -2.4% | -1.2% | -5.3% |
| 11/13/2025 | -6.3% | -10.2% | 17.3% |
| 8/14/2025 | -5.6% | -13.1% | -25.2% |
| 5/13/2025 | 7.7% | 13.8% | 9.0% |
| 3/13/2025 | 10.2% | 3.9% | -37.4% |
| 1/13/2025 | -5.0% | -18.5% | 1.3% |
| 11/14/2024 | 0.2% | -7.2% | 57.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -8.7% | -13.7% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 315.6% | 314.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -18.5% | -37.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | -0.3% | -13.8% | -4.3% |
| 3/12/2026 | -2.4% | -1.2% | -5.3% |
| 11/13/2025 | -6.3% | -10.2% | 17.3% |
| 8/14/2025 | -5.6% | -13.1% | -25.2% |
| 5/13/2025 | 7.7% | 13.8% | 9.0% |
| 3/13/2025 | 10.2% | 3.9% | -37.4% |
| 1/13/2025 | -5.0% | -18.5% | 1.3% |
| 11/14/2024 | 0.2% | -7.2% | 57.3% |
| 8/13/2024 | 4.7% | -5.9% | 18.1% |
| 5/14/2024 | 4.9% | 17.5% | -25.7% |
| 3/28/2024 | 2.6% | 315.6% | 314.9% |
| 11/9/2023 | -13.0% | -2.3% | -10.0% |
| 8/10/2023 | -3.6% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| 5/11/2023 | -3.4% | -12.4% | -17.4% |
| 11/10/2022 | 10.7% | 24.0% | 39.3% |
| 8/5/2022 | 1.4% | -5.8% | -5.2% |
| 5/12/2022 | 3.5% | 2.2% | -9.3% |
| 11/12/2021 | 0.8% | -2.3% | -31.5% |
| 9/8/2021 | 12.6% | -17.3% | 5.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 7 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -8.7% | -13.7% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 315.6% | 314.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -18.5% | -37.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/30/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/30/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/29/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 09/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2028 Cash Runway | |||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | 2,028 | Raised | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyagarajan, Seshu | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 10.02 | 7,000 | 70,151 | 840,461 | Form |
| 2 | Barone, Francesca | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 10.06 | 23,447 | 235,769 | 777,906 | Form |
| 3 | Manning, Paul B | Paul B. Manning Revocable Trust | Buy | 2262026 | 5.45 | 550,458 | 2,999,996 | 15,061,222 | Form | |
| 4 | Nichols, William Garrett | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7302025 | 6.98 | 937 | 6,540 | 366,401 | Form |
| 5 | Nichols, William Garrett | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 5.04 | 781 | 3,936 | 264,565 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyagarajan, Seshu | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 10.02 | 7,000 | 70,151 | 840,461 | Form |
| 2 | Barone, Francesca | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 10.06 | 23,447 | 235,769 | 777,906 | Form |
| 3 | Manning, Paul B | Paul B. Manning Revocable Trust | Buy | 2262026 | 5.45 | 550,458 | 2,999,996 | 15,061,222 | Form | |
| 4 | Nichols, William Garrett | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7302025 | 6.98 | 937 | 6,540 | 366,401 | Form |
| 5 | Nichols, William Garrett | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 5.04 | 781 | 3,936 | 264,565 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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