Toll Brothers (TOL)
Market Price (5/12/2026): $135.11 | Market Cap: $12.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Market Price (5/12/2026): $135.11Market Cap: $12.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36% | Key risksTOL key risks include [1] potential margin erosion and impairments tied to its strategy of increasing speculative home inventory. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36% |
| Key risksTOL key risks include [1] potential margin erosion and impairments tied to its strategy of increasing speculative home inventory. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Toll Brothers (TOL) stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Rising Mortgage Rates and Persistent Inflation Concerns.
Mortgage rates, after briefly dipping below 6% in February 2026, climbed back significantly, averaging 6.38% by late April 2026. This increase was driven by persistent inflation concerns, exacerbated by geopolitical events, and erased prior affordability gains, creating a less favorable lending environment for potential homebuyers.
2. Softening Housing Market Demand and Increasing Inventory.
The broader housing market experienced a slowdown during the period. Existing home sales decreased across all four U.S. regions in March 2026, and active listings rose by 8.1% year-over-year. This combination of reduced buyer activity and increased supply indicates a more challenging and competitive environment for homebuilders.
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1. Rising Mortgage Rates and Persistent Inflation Concerns.
Mortgage rates, after briefly dipping below 6% in February 2026, climbed back significantly, averaging 6.38% by late April 2026. This increase was driven by persistent inflation concerns, exacerbated by geopolitical events, and erased prior affordability gains, creating a less favorable lending environment for potential homebuyers.
2. Softening Housing Market Demand and Increasing Inventory.
The broader housing market experienced a slowdown during the period. Existing home sales decreased across all four U.S. regions in March 2026, and active listings rose by 8.1% year-over-year. This combination of reduced buyer activity and increased supply indicates a more challenging and competitive environment for homebuilders.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.3% change in TOL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 144.22 | 135.15 | -6.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,967 | 11,253 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 12.3% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 9.4 | -9.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 96 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | -6.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 54.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 62.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.5% change in TOL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 134.45 | 135.15 | 0.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,877 | 11,253 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 12.3% | -3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.6 | 9.4 | -2.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 96 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 59.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.0% change in TOL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.10 | 135.15 | 35.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,758 | 11,253 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.0% | 12.3% | -12.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.7 | 9.4 | 40.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 101 | 96 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 35.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 45.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.0% | 57.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 116.9% change in TOL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.31 | 135.15 | 116.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,265 | 11,253 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 12.3% | -5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.2 | 9.4 | 79.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 96 | 16.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 116.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOL | 116.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 47.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 65.5% | 55.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TOL Return | 68% | -30% | 109% | 23% | 8% | 2% | 237% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -18% | 79% | 5% | -5% | -5% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TOL Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 83% | 58% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 40% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TOL Max Drawdown | -3% | -43% | 0% | -6% | -28% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -41% | -0% | -6% | -17% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TMHC. See TOL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.8% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 515 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Toll Brothers's stock fell -21.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 243.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 515 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 554 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 362 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Toll Brothers's stock fell -21.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. It has a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities in the United States markets. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Toll Brothers (TOL):
- The Mercedes-Benz of homebuilders.
- The Four Seasons of luxury residential communities.
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- Detached and Attached Luxury Homes: Designs, builds, markets, and sells a range of luxury detached and attached homes within residential communities.
- Condominiums: Designs, builds, markets, and sells luxury condominiums, typically through its City Living segment.
- Apartment Rentals: Develops, operates, and rents apartments in various communities, often through strategic partnerships.
- Land Sales: Develops and sells land, often for residential or commercial use.
- Golf Courses & Country Clubs: Develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs, which often complement its luxury residential communities.
- Mortgage and Home Financing Services: Arranges and provides mortgage and financing solutions for home buyers.
- Title and Insurance Services: Offers title and insurance services to facilitate the home purchasing process.
- Interior Design and Fit-Out Options: Provides a variety of interior design and fit-out options, including flooring, fixtures, appliances, and home automation technologies for new homes.
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Major Customers of Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers primarily sells its luxury homes and condominiums directly to individual consumers. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Move-up buyers
- Empty-nester buyers
- Active-adult buyers
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Douglas C. Yearley, Jr. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Douglas C. Yearley, Jr. joined Toll Brothers in 1990 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since June 2010 and Chairman of the Board since October 2018. He initially specialized in land acquisitions and project management, learning the homebuilding business from the ground up. Prior to joining Toll Brothers, he practiced law in New Jersey as a commercial litigator. He has held various management positions over his more than 30 years with the company, including Vice President, Senior Vice President, Regional President, and Executive Vice President. Mr. Yearley holds a Bachelor of Science degree from Cornell University in Applied Economics and Business Management and a Juris Doctor degree from Rutgers Law School.
Gregg Ziegler Chief Financial Officer
Gregg Ziegler was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Toll Brothers in November 2025, a role effective October 31, 2025, after more than 23 years with the Company. He leads the Company's accounting, treasury & finance, tax, investor relations, risk management, internal audit, mortgage, title, and information technology functions. Mr. Ziegler began his career at Toll Brothers in 2002 as an Assistant Finance Director and has held various roles of increasing responsibility, including Senior Vice President in 2010, Treasurer in 2013, and leading the Investor Relations department in May 2024. Before joining Toll Brothers, he was a principal at Katalyst, a venture capital and private equity firm. He also worked as an associate with Berwind Corporation, a family-owned investment management company, and at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Mr. Ziegler holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting and a Master of Business Administration from Villanova University.
Robert Parahus President and Chief Operating Officer
Robert Parahus serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Toll Brothers, overseeing the Company's national homebuilding operations across 24 states and the District of Columbia. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Architectural Engineering from The Pennsylvania State University.
Kellie Hall Chief Human Resources Officer
Kellie Hall began her Human Resources career with Toll Brothers in 1997. She has worked in a variety of roles within the HR organization, leading teams in Recruiting, Employee Relations, Talent Development, and Talent Management before being promoted to Vice President in 2013. In 2021, she was appointed Chief Human Resources Officer. Throughout her career, Ms. Hall has played a key role in mergers & acquisitions, system implementations, change management, and leadership development initiatives.
Timothy Hoban Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Timothy Hoban serves as Senior Vice President and General Counsel of Toll Brothers. He is also the Chief Compliance Officer.
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Here are the key risks to Toll Brothers' business:
- Fluctuations in Housing Market Demand, Interest Rates, and Economic Conditions: Toll Brothers' business is highly susceptible to shifts in the housing market, which are influenced by factors such as employment levels, consumer confidence, and the availability of financing. Economic downturns, inflation, and higher interest rates can significantly reduce housing affordability and demand, potentially leading to inventory impairments, increased cancellations of home sales agreements, and reduced profit margins.
- Rising Construction Material Costs, Labor Shortages, and Supply Chain Disruptions: The profitability of Toll Brothers is directly impacted by the fluctuating and often increasing costs of essential construction materials like lumber, steel, and concrete. Persistent supply chain disruptions can exacerbate these cost pressures. Additionally, labor shortages within the construction industry can lead to increased labor costs and project delays.
- Land Acquisition and Regulatory Risks: A fundamental aspect of Toll Brothers' business involves acquiring suitable land for its luxury residential communities. Risks include the availability of desirable land at reasonable prices and obtaining necessary governmental approvals for development. The company is also subject to regulatory changes, including environmental laws and zoning regulations, which can delay projects and increase operational costs.
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Toll Brothers operates within several significant addressable markets across the United States. The company's main products and services include the design, construction, marketing, and sale of luxury detached and attached homes, condominiums, and the development and rental of apartments. The addressable markets for Toll Brothers' main products and services in the U.S. are as follows: * Luxury Residential Real Estate Market: The United States Luxury Residential Real Estate Market is expected to grow from USD 291.14 billion in 2025 to USD 298.61 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 349.38 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.19% over the 2026-2031 period. This market encompasses luxury homes and condominiums, with apartments and condominiums holding a 56.62% share in 2025. Another report estimates the domestic luxury residential real estate market, currently valued at approximately $289 billion, is projected to exceed $338 billion by 2030. * Residential Construction Market (New Builds): The overall U.S. residential construction market size is estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2026, growing from a 2025 value of USD 1.35 trillion, and is projected to reach USD 1.76 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.53% between 2026 and 2031. New-build activity constituted 69.05% of this market in 2025. * Apartment and Condominium Construction Market: The U.S. apartment and condominium construction market was valued at USD 91.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to USD 124.2 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.1% during the 2025–2032 period. * Apartment Rental Market: The Apartment Rental industry in the United States is expected to generate revenue of $305.7 billion by the end of 2026.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Toll Brothers (TOL) over the next 2-3 years:- Increased Home Deliveries and Community Count Expansion: Toll Brothers anticipates increasing its number of home deliveries, which directly correlates with revenue growth. The company expects to deliver between 11,200 and 11,600 homes for the full fiscal year 2025. Additionally, the company increased its community count by 10% to 408 communities at the end of fiscal year 2024, indicating a broader reach for future sales.
- Maintaining Strong Average Selling Prices (ASPs): The ability to command higher prices for its luxury homes is a key revenue driver. Toll Brothers reported an increase in its average sales price to $1,033,000 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. This consistent pricing power, along with effective cost management, is crucial for sustained profitability and revenue growth.
- Focus on the Luxury Home Market and Affluent Customer Base: As "America's Luxury Home Builder," Toll Brothers benefits from resilient demand within the luxury segment, targeting move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. This strategic focus on affluent buyers helps mitigate broader market cyclicality and supports consistent sales performance.
- Geographic Diversification and Expansion: The company operates across 24 states and over 60 markets, a diversified footprint that positions it for continued growth. Toll Brothers' multi-year strategy includes widening its geographies and price points, with a particular focus on areas like Texas and Florida to capitalize on regional demand.
- Favorable Demographic Trends: Demographic tailwinds are expected to support future housing demand. This includes Millennials entering their prime home-buying years and the ongoing transfer of wealth from Baby Boomers to Millennials, both of which are anticipated to drive demand for high-quality new homes.
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```htmlCapital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- From May 2022 through December 2023, Toll Brothers repurchased approximately 13.3 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of around $800 million.
- In December 2023, the Board of Directors approved a new 20 million share repurchase authorization to replace the existing program.
- Toll Brothers increased its projected share repurchases for fiscal 2025 from $500 million to $600 million and plans $650 million in share repurchases for fiscal 2026.
Share Issuance
- The company's shares outstanding declined by 4.69% in 2025 from 2024, by 5.69% in 2024 from 2023, and by 5.91% in 2023 from 2022, indicating a net reduction in shares through repurchases rather than significant issuances.
Inbound Investments
- In August 2021, Toll Brothers established a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities, targeting nearly $1.9 billion in new rental communities over three years.
- Under this partnership, Equity Residential committed to investing 75% of the equity for each project, with an initial minimum co-investment target of approximately $750 million in combined equity.
Outbound Investments
- As part of the strategic partnership with Equity Residential formed in August 2021, Toll Brothers committed to investing 25% of the equity for developing new rental apartment communities.
- In September 2025, Toll Brothers announced an agreement to sell its interests in approximately half of its Apartment Living portfolio and its operating platform for $380 million, with plans to fully exit the multifamily business.
Capital Expenditures
- Fiscal 2024 free cash flow of $936.52 million supported capital expenditures, dividends, and strategic investments.
- In the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025, the company spent approximately $580.0 million on land to purchase approximately 3,214 lots.
- Toll Brothers focuses on driving return on equity through more capital-efficient land buying, product optimization, and other strategies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
| 09302023 | TOL | Toll Brothers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 75.8% | 111.9% | -7.6% |
| 05312019 | TOL | Toll Brothers | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.2% | -5.8% | -60.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| Rev LTM | 14,041 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,995 |
| FCF LTM | 1,342 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,467 |
| CFO LTM | 1,397 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,536 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -23.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 11.4 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $135.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/30/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $140.87 | $139.14 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.1% | -2.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.7% | 32.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.76 | 0.54 |
| Upside Capture | 70.92 | 108.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.7% | 43.8% |
TOL Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | 2.24 | 2.39 | 2.14 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | -1.27 | 1.56 | 1.63 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | 76% | 89% | 67% | 109% | 117% | 223% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 16 | 30 | 56 | 127 | 393 |
| Down Capture | -144% | 158% | 74% | 96% | 96% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 27 | 34 | 69 | 125 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 31.2% | 33.0% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 19.5% | 18.7% | 0.82 | 56.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.1% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 44.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 26.9% | 1.30 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 18.0% | 2.14 | -27.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.5% | 0.70 | 55.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 41.7% | -0.50 | 17.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 16.8% | 35.9% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 57.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.5% | 19.1% | 0.58 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 59.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.5% | 56.0% | 0.36 | 24.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 18.4% | 41.0% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 57.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 54.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/17/2026 | -2.3% | -2.6% | -16.4% |
| 12/8/2025 | -2.4% | 3.1% | -0.5% |
| 8/19/2025 | -0.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% |
| 5/20/2025 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 3.6% |
| 2/18/2025 | -5.9% | -6.1% | -12.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.9% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
| 8/20/2024 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 14.7% |
| 5/21/2024 | -8.5% | -9.0% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.6% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 12.0% | 19.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.0% | -20.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/19/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Deliveries | 2,400 | 2,450 | 2,500 | 32.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1,850 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.98 Mil | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.99 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 25.5% | -2.9% | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 26.25% for Q1 2026 | ||
| Q2 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.11 | -24.6% | -3.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.14 for Q1 2026 | ||
| Q2 2026 Period-End Community Count | 455 | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 445 for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Tax Rate | 26.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 23.2% for Q1 2026 | ||
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,300 | 10,500 | 10,700 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10,500 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.98 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.1 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 485 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 1.3E10% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.3E10% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 25.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Community Count Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | Higher New | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/8/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Deliveries | 1,800 | 1,850 | 1,900 | -44.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 3,350 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.97 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.25% | -2.8% | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 27.0% for Q4 2025 | ||
| Q1 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.14 | 71.1% | 5.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.08 for Q4 2025 | ||
| Q1 2026 Period-End Community Count | 445 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 445 for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 7.0E9% | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 6.5E9% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Tax Rate | 23.2% | -9.0% | -2.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 25.5% for Q4 2025 | ||
| 2026 Deliveries | 10,300 | 10,500 | 10,700 | -6.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 11,200 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Average Delivered Price per Home | 0.97 Mil | 0.98 Mil | 0.99 Mil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 0.95 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Home Sales Gross Margin | 26.0% | -4.6% | -1.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 27.25% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 SG&A, as a Percentage of Home Sales Revenues | 0.1 | 8.5% | 0.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.09 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Period-End Community Count | 480 | 485 | 490 | 9.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 445 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Other Income, Income from Unconsolidated Entities, and Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other | 1.3E10% | 18.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.1E10% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 25.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 25.1% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East, Stephen F | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 139.70 | 1,000 | 139,700 | 1,877,847 | Form | |
| 2 | McLean, John A | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 153.43 | 2,313 | 354,889 | 2,664,964 | Form | |
| 3 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 159.15 | 27,014 | 4,299,308 | 51,128,246 | Form |
| 4 | Yearley, Douglas C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 160.42 | 45,116 | 7,237,609 | 51,536,600 | Form |
| 5 | Shapiro, Paul E | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 146.68 | 3,965 | 581,581 | 17,407,816 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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