Tearsheet

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.05 | Market Cap: $6.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $63.05
Market Cap: $6.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.2%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, IoT for Buildings, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, IoT for Buildings, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.2%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMHC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Disappointments: Despite beating adjusted earnings per share estimates, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation reported a year-over-year decrease in profit and a slight miss on revenue for the third quarter of 2025. Furthermore, net sales orders declined by nearly 13% year-over-year, and the company's backlog was down almost 40% in dollar terms, signaling potential challenges for future revenue growth.

2. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Outlook: Following the Q3 results, several analysts revised their outlook for TMHC. Royal Bank of Canada lowered its price target from $75.00 to $68.00, citing a mixed third-quarter performance and weaker fourth-quarter guidance, and also reduced its fiscal year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share estimates. Similarly, B of A Securities maintained a "Buy" rating but decreased its price target from $75.00 to $72.00.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMHC Return17%36%-13%76%15%3%188%
Peers Return26%40%-10%69%14%28%290%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMHC Win Rate67%75%33%58%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate55%62%52%60%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMHC Max Drawdown-68%-11%-41%0%-5%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-6%-35%-8%-8%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, IBP, FLR, MTH, KBH. See TMHC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMHCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven228 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven301.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven308 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven821 days120 days

Compare to DY, IBP, FLR, MTH, KBH


In The Past

Taylor Morrison Home's stock fell -40.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -40.8% loss requires a 69.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)

Better Bets than Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
TMHC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020TMHCTaylor Morrison HomeDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
121.0%180.1%-25.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
TMHC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020TMHCTaylor Morrison HomeDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
121.0%180.1%-25.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Taylor Morrison Home

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMHCDYIBPFLRMTHKBHMedian
NameTaylor M.Dycom In.Installe.Fluor Meritage.KB Home  
Mkt Price64.57352.80270.2544.0574.6665.8270.24
Mkt Cap6.410.27.37.15.34.46.7
Rev LTM8,3784,9932,97415,5886,0486,5426,295
Op Inc LTM1,227381376-226661635508
FCF LTM570123304237-253350271
FCF 3Y Avg57144283240161588262
CFO LTM609397381306-225394388
CFO 3Y Avg612284355355193628355

Growth & Margins

TMHCDYIBPFLRMTHKBHMedian
NameTaylor M.Dycom In.Installe.Fluor Meritage.KB Home  
Rev Chg LTM7.0%12.6%2.1%-1.8%-6.0%-0.9%0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.7%13.0%5.7%4.7%1.6%-0.5%3.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%14.5%2.3%-17.7%-10.7%-7.5%-4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.3%3.6%0.6%-4.5%-2.8%-2.0%-1.1%
Op Mgn LTM14.6%7.6%12.6%-1.4%10.9%9.7%10.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.9%7.5%13.0%0.6%13.9%11.2%12.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%0.5%0.1%-3.3%-1.6%-0.7%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%8.0%12.8%2.0%-3.7%6.0%6.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.6%6.2%12.3%2.2%2.9%9.5%6.9%
FCF/Rev LTM6.8%2.5%10.2%1.5%-4.2%5.3%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.1%0.9%9.9%1.5%2.4%8.9%4.7%

Valuation

TMHCDYIBPFLRMTHKBHMedian
NameTaylor M.Dycom In.Installe.Fluor Meritage.KB Home  
Mkt Cap6.410.27.37.15.34.46.7
P/S0.81.42.20.40.80.60.8
P/EBIT5.317.317.7-57.37.36.67.0
P/E7.627.126.12.09.58.28.8
P/CFO10.717.817.522.3-22.810.714.1
Total Yield13.1%3.7%5.1%49.7%12.9%12.6%12.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%2.3%0.4%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.1%0.6%5.4%2.8%4.6%14.4%5.0%
D/E0.30.20.10.20.40.50.3
Net D/E0.30.20.1-0.30.20.40.2

Returns

TMHCDYIBPFLRMTHKBHMedian
NameTaylor M.Dycom In.Installe.Fluor Meritage.KB Home  
1M Rtn10.4%23.3%12.6%-8.3%13.5%8.3%11.5%
3M Rtn-4.3%41.7%2.2%2.8%-2.2%3.7%2.5%
6M Rtn11.4%49.2%63.1%2.7%15.3%25.2%20.2%
12M Rtn-11.4%84.9%23.2%-19.5%-19.8%-19.1%-15.2%
3Y Rtn111.0%287.3%225.2%23.5%80.1%118.6%114.8%
1M Excs Rtn10.4%23.3%12.6%-8.3%13.5%8.3%11.5%
3M Excs Rtn-13.2%33.6%-5.1%0.9%-13.2%-5.1%-5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-3.3%34.5%48.4%-12.0%0.5%10.4%5.5%
12M Excs Rtn-26.1%81.2%6.7%-35.1%-33.6%-32.7%-29.4%
3Y Excs Rtn47.1%222.8%180.2%-39.3%10.9%53.7%50.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Home closings revenue, net7,159    
Mortgage services revenue120    
Land closings revenue61    
Title services and other revenues40    
Amenity and other revenue38    
Central   1,6331,334
Corporate and unallocated   25 
East   1,9191,951
Financial Services   15693
West   2,3961,384
Total7,418  6,1294,762


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,241,706
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202521.7%
Average Daily Volume956,896
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.48
Basic Shares Quantity98,439,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021