Tearsheet

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $61.02 | Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $61.02
Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  Key risks
TMHC key risks include [1] a significant slowdown in its order backlog and [2] persistently high cancellation rates, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, IoT for Buildings, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.9%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, IoT for Buildings, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
5 Key risks
TMHC key risks include [1] a significant slowdown in its order backlog and [2] persistently high cancellation rates, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMHC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. General Housing Market Weakness: The U.S. housing market experienced a significant slowdown through late 2025, with existing home sales remaining exceptionally low and inventory increasing sharply. This broader market trend contributed to pressure on home prices, with national home price growth slowing considerably to a 1.3% annual gain by October 2025, and average new seller asking prices declining in December 2025.

2. Elevated Mortgage Rates and Affordability Challenges: Sustained higher mortgage rates, projected to ease only marginally to approximately 6.7% by the end of 2025, continued to create affordability issues for potential homebuyers. These elevated rates acted as a disincentive for current homeowners to sell, further constraining market activity and impacting buyer demand.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMHC Return17%36%-13%76%15%-0%180%
Peers Return20%52%-22%86%6%4%193%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMHC Win Rate67%75%33%58%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate68%75%40%63%62%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMHC Max Drawdown-68%-11%-41%0%-5%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-4%-41%-0%-6%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL. See TMHC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMHCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven228 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven301.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven308 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven821 days120 days

Compare to DY, IBP, FLR, MTH, KBH


In The Past

Taylor Morrison Home's stock fell -40.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -40.8% loss requires a 69.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)

Better Bets than Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
TMHC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020TMHCTaylor Morrison HomeDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
121.0%180.1%-25.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
TMHC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020TMHCTaylor Morrison HomeDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
121.0%180.1%-25.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Taylor Morrison Home

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMHCDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameTaylor M.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Price61.02152.00112.23122.807,472.55139.16130.98
Mkt Cap6.045.028.724.121.513.722.8
Rev LTM8,37834,25034,76617,62310,47610,87714,250
Op Inc LTM1,2274,4243,4703,3951,7821,7682,589
FCF LTM5703,284-7131,5521,2929181,105
FCF 3Y Avg5713,1542,7831,8751,4301,2011,652
CFO LTM6093,421-5681,6681,3199951,157
CFO 3Y Avg6123,3052,9181,9831,4571,2741,720

Growth & Margins

TMHCDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameTaylor M.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Rev Chg LTM7.0%-6.9%-4.7%1.8%3.4%3.3%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.7%0.9%3.0%5.4%1.4%4.4%2.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%-3.2%-6.4%-1.6%-4.5%8.0%-2.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.3%-0.9%-1.7%-0.4%-1.2%2.0%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM14.6%12.9%10.0%19.3%17.0%16.3%15.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.9%15.4%13.6%20.6%18.4%17.5%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-1.2%-1.5%-0.7%-0.6%-0.4%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%10.0%-1.6%9.5%12.6%9.1%9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.6%9.4%8.4%11.6%14.4%11.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM6.8%9.6%-2.1%8.8%12.3%8.4%8.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.1%8.9%8.0%10.9%14.2%11.2%9.9%

Valuation

TMHCDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameTaylor M.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Cap6.045.028.724.121.513.722.8
P/S0.81.30.91.52.21.01.2
P/EBIT5.310.29.37.612.26.48.4
P/E7.612.512.09.916.18.210.9
P/CFO10.713.1-56.715.617.511.312.2
Total Yield13.1%9.1%10.0%10.8%6.2%12.7%10.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%1.6%0.7%0.0%0.4%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.1%7.1%7.3%9.2%6.3%12.1%8.2%
D/E0.30.10.20.10.00.30.2
Net D/E0.30.10.10.0-0.00.20.1

Returns

TMHCDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameTaylor M.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
1M Rtn5.6%10.3%-1.6%8.1%4.4%9.9%6.8%
3M Rtn-10.5%-10.3%-15.2%-8.2%-8.2%-0.5%-9.3%
6M Rtn6.3%26.0%9.5%24.3%7.1%32.5%16.9%
12M Rtn-4.4%4.8%-24.6%6.8%-11.8%5.7%0.2%
3Y Rtn97.2%75.1%27.1%171.6%55.2%183.4%86.2%
1M Excs Rtn4.8%9.6%-2.4%7.3%3.7%9.1%6.1%
3M Excs Rtn-13.2%-11.5%-16.5%-9.6%-10.0%-1.6%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-6.1%13.7%-2.9%11.9%-5.3%20.1%4.5%
12M Excs Rtn-16.8%-8.5%-37.1%-6.4%-24.1%-6.2%-12.6%
3Y Excs Rtn31.9%13.1%-36.8%113.2%-9.6%121.3%22.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Home closings revenue, net7,159    
Mortgage services revenue120    
Land closings revenue61    
Title services and other revenues40    
Amenity and other revenue38    
Central   1,6331,334
Corporate and unallocated   25 
East   1,9191,951
Financial Services   15693
West   2,3961,384
Total7,418  6,1294,762


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,518,804
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.3%
Average Daily Volume834,143
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.62
Basic Shares Quantity98,439,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-3.2%-4.4%-7.3%
7/23/2025-3.8%-8.8%-0.2%
4/23/2025-2.0%-3.2%-2.7%
2/12/20253.3%-0.8%-6.9%
10/23/20243.6%7.6%6.9%
7/24/2024-0.5%3.3%-1.6%
4/30/2024-2.9%1.6%-2.6%
2/14/20245.6%4.7%7.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111212
# Negative141313
Median Positive3.3%2.6%7.9%
Median Negative-3.1%-3.2%-2.7%
Max Positive9.6%12.2%38.6%
Max Negative-6.8%-10.3%-13.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021