Talen Energy (TLN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $372.24 | Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Talen Energy (TLN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $372.24Market Cap: $17.0 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TLN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Narrowed 2025 Guidance and Operational Softness
Talen Energy narrowed its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to the low end when reporting its third quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025, signaling that the company was trending towards the lower range of its financial expectations for the year. The third quarter was also "operationally softer than internal hopes amid low volatility and incremental forced outages".
2. Higher Capital Expenditures
Adjusted Free Cash Flow was partially offset by higher capital expenditures related to an extended refueling outage at the Susquehanna plant, which could have been a concern for investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TLN Return | - | - | - | - | 215% | 83% | 475% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 15% | -4% | 7% | 67% | 37% | 183% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TLN Win Rate | - | - | - | 83% | 83% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 37% | 27% | 50% | 52% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TLN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -3% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -15% | -15% | -13% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TLN has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.
| Event | XLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2058 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Talen Energy Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| null | |||
| TLN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Talen Energy (TLN) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talen Energy (TLN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talen Energy (TLN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talen Energy (TLN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talen Energy (TLN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 2nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TLN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Talen Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 290 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 52 |
| CFO LTM | 630 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 917 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.0 |
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 9302016 | 11102016 | 10-Q 9/30/2016 |
| 6302016 | 8052016 | 10-Q 6/30/2016 |
| 3312016 | 5102016 | 10-Q 3/31/2016 |
| 12312015 | 2292016 | 10-K 12/31/2015 |
| 9302015 | 11092015 | 10-Q 9/30/2015 |
| 6302015 | 8122015 | 10-Q 6/30/2015 |
| 3312015 | 5082015 | 10-Q 3/31/2015 |
| 12312014 | 5012015 | 424B3 12/31/2014 |
| 6302014 | 11052014 | S-1 6/30/2014 |
| 12312013 | 12222014 | S-1/A 12/31/2013 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |