Talen Energy (TLN)
Market Price (4/20/2026): $366.51 | Market Cap: $16.7 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Talen Energy (TLN)
Market Price (4/20/2026): $366.51Market Cap: $16.7 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.4x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 123x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2% Key risksTLN key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with high financial leverage and weak interest coverage, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.4x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 123x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2% |
| Key risksTLN key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with high financial leverage and weak interest coverage, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Talen Energy reported a significant GAAP Net Loss for the full year 2025. On February 26, 2026, the company announced a GAAP Net Loss Attributable to Stockholders of $(219) million for the year ended December 31, 2025. This financial disclosure coincided with a -4.89% drop in Talen Energy's stock price on that day. Despite reaffirming robust 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA between $1.75 billion and $2.05 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $980 million and $1.18 billion, the reported net loss likely fueled investor concerns.
2. Concerns emerged regarding potential PJM Interconnection market reforms that could impact pricing power. On January 16, 2026, news surfaced about plans for an emergency wholesale electricity auction by President Trump and PJM governors. This proposed policy could mandate tech companies to fund new power plants through long-term contracts, potentially diminishing the pricing power for existing generators such as Talen Energy, which depend on current wholesale auction and capacity revenue structures. The timing of this announcement was highlighted as detrimental to incumbent generators.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.5% change in TLN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 374.84 | 365.35 | -2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,343 | 2,626 | 12.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 7.3 | 6.4 | -13.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLN | -2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | 8.1% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.1% change in TLN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 425.38 | 365.35 | -14.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,128 | 2,626 | 23.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.1 | 6.4 | -30.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 46 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLN | -14.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 47.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 6.7% | 43.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 83.0% change in TLN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 199.67 | 365.35 | 83.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,073 | 2,626 | 26.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.8 | 6.4 | 32.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 46 | 9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 83.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLN | 83.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 46.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 19.6% | 39.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TLN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 43.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 48.5% | 30.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TLN Return | - | - | 38% | 215% | 86% | -3% | 679% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 19% | 73% | 64% | 46% | 5% | 447% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 87% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TLN Win Rate | - | - | 86% | 83% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 47% | 74% | 58% | 58% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TLN Max Drawdown | - | - | -1% | -3% | -18% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -20% | -5% | -16% | -9% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GNE, MWH, NRG, FTS, TLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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About Talen Energy (TLN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Talen Energy:
- They're like NRG Energy, generating and selling electricity from a diverse fleet of power plants to wholesale and retail customers.
- Think of them as the power generation and sales arm of a major utility like NextEra Energy, but utilizing a diverse mix of energy sources including nuclear and coal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electricity Generation: Talen Energy operates a diverse fleet of power plants to produce electricity from nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydro, and renewable energy sources.
- Electricity Marketing and Sales: The company sells and markets its generated electricity to a wide range of wholesale and retail customers across various sectors.
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Mark "Mac" McFarland, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Mark "Mac" McFarland was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Talen Energy in May 2023. He concurrently joined the company's Board. Prior to his role at Talen Energy, Mr. McFarland served as President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the Board of California Resources Corporation (CRC). He was also the Executive Chairman, President, and CEO of GenOn Energy, an independent power producer. From 2013 to 2016, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Luminant Holding Company LLC, a subsidiary of Energy Future Holdings Corporation, and served as both Chief Commercial Officer of Luminant and Executive Vice President, Corporate Development and Strategy of Energy Future Holdings from 2008 to 2013. Earlier in his career, from 1999 to 2008, Mr. McFarland held various roles at Exelon Corporation, including Senior Vice President, Corporate Development. He has served on the Boards of TerraForm Power, Bruin E&P Partners, and Chaparral Energy. Talen Energy itself was initially formed with investment from private equity firm Riverstone Holdings, which later acquired full ownership of the company in 2016. His experience includes overseeing an independent power producer during a restructuring/turnaround period at GenOn.
Cole Muller, Chief Financial Officer
Cole Muller was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Talen Energy in December 2025. In this role, he is responsible for the company's accounting, treasury, risk management, financial planning, investor relations, tax, and internal audit functions. Mr. Muller previously served as Executive Vice President, Strategic Ventures at Talen Energy, where he led the company's strategic direction for digital infrastructure development and data center contracting. Before that, he led Talen's PJM Fossil business unit. Prior to joining Talen in 2018, he was an Associate Partner for McKinsey & Co., where he advised energy clients on strategic opportunities and operational transformations. Mr. Muller also served as a submarine officer in the U.S. Navy.
Terry Nutt, President
Terry Nutt was appointed President of Talen Energy Corporation in December 2025. In this capacity, he oversees the daily operations of the company's business. Before becoming President, Mr. Nutt served as Chief Financial Officer of Talen Energy from July 2023 through December 2025. He has over 25 years of experience in the energy industry. From 2018 to 2023, he was Chief Financial Officer and Managing Director for EDF Trading North America, an energy commodity trading subsidiary of Électricité de France (EDF) S.A. Mr. Nutt also held multiple senior finance positions at Vistra Corporation (and its predecessor entities), including Senior Vice President and Controller and Senior Vice President of Risk Management, and various finance roles at Dynegy Inc.
Brad Berryman, Chief Operating Officer
Brad Berryman assumed the role of Chief Operating Officer of Talen Energy in December 2025, responsible for operations of Talen's entire power generation fleet.
Chris Morice, Chief Commercial Officer
Chris Morice was appointed Chief Commercial Officer of Talen Energy in 2023, where he oversees the company's wholesale trading and fleet optimization activities. He began his career at Lehman Brothers and later worked with Lehman's acquisition of Eagle Energy Partners. Mr. Morice joined Talen in 2017 as Desk Head/Lead Trader. His prior experience includes market-facing, risk-taking, revenue-generating roles at Koch Energy, Topaz Power, and EDF Trading.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Regulatory and Environmental Changes / Energy Transition Risk: Talen Energy operates a diverse fleet of power plants, including those that rely on coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy sources. Increasing environmental regulations, carbon pricing initiatives, and the broader industry shift towards decarbonization pose significant risks. These factors could lead to higher operating costs, require substantial capital investments for compliance or conversion, or potentially result in the premature retirement or reduced profitability of fossil fuel-based assets.
- Commodity Price Volatility: As an energy and power generation and marketing company, Talen Energy is exposed to significant volatility in the prices of its primary fuel inputs (such as natural gas, oil, and coal) and the wholesale market prices for electricity. Fluctuations in these commodity prices directly impact the company's operational costs, revenue, and overall profitability.
- Nuclear Plant Operational and Regulatory Risks: The operation of nuclear power plants, a component of Talen Energy's generation portfolio, carries unique risks. These include stringent and evolving regulatory requirements, high operating and maintenance costs, potential for unexpected outages, and challenges related to nuclear waste disposal and decommissioning. Any major incident or change in regulatory posture could have a substantial financial and operational impact.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rapid Expansion of Distributed Energy Resources and Grid-Edge Storage:
The increasing affordability and efficiency of distributed energy technologies, such as rooftop and community solar, coupled with rapidly decreasing costs of grid-edge battery storage solutions, pose a clear emerging threat. This trend empowers residential, commercial, and industrial customers to generate and store their own electricity, thereby reducing their reliance on centralized power generation and traditional grid infrastructure. This directly impacts the demand for electricity from companies like Talen Energy, threatening both wholesale and retail sales volumes and potentially leading to downward pressure on market prices as more decentralized capacity comes online.
Accelerated Decarbonization Policies and Regulatory Pressure on Fossil Fuels:
Given Talen Energy's significant generation fleet that includes natural gas and coal assets, an accelerating global and regional push for decarbonization presents a substantial threat. Increasingly stringent environmental regulations, carbon pricing mechanisms, and mandates for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources could significantly raise operating costs for Talen's fossil fuel-based plants. Such policies could lead to premature asset retirements, reduce the economic viability of existing assets, or even strand them, thereby threatening the profitability and long-term sustainability of a substantial portion of Talen's current generation portfolio.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Talen Energy's main products and services, which primarily involve electricity generation and sales to wholesale and retail customers in the United States, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest regions, are substantial.The overall U.S. power market was valued at approximately USD 380.33 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 568.13 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.56% from 2026 to 2034. In 2023, the U.S. electricity sector generated 4,178 Terawatt-hours (TWh) and generated $491 billion in revenue.
Specifically for Talen Energy's key operating regions:
- Wholesale Electricity Market (U.S.): Talen Energy is active in competitive wholesale electricity markets, particularly in the PJM Interconnection (Mid-Atlantic region). The overall U.S. wholesale electricity market involves sales among electric utilities and traders.
- Mid-Atlantic Region (PJM Interconnection): This is the largest U.S. regional power market, coordinating power for 67 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia. Wholesale electricity prices in the PJM region increased to $80.5 billion in 2025. Electricity sales in PJM are projected to increase by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by rising demand from data centers.
- Northeast Region (ISO-NE, NYISO): In New England, the total annual energy served was 117,744 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2025. Net electricity use in New England is forecast to increase by an average of 1.8% annually, from 117,262 GWh in 2025 to 130,665 GWh in 2034.
- Southwest Region: The Southwest electricity market includes traditional wholesale markets where utilities are responsible for system operations and providing power to retail consumers. This region has a summer peak demand of approximately 42 GW, with around 50 GW of generation capacity. Wholesale electricity prices in California and the Southwest are forecasted to be 30–35% higher in 2025 due to demand surges.
- Retail Electricity Market (U.S.): The U.S. electricity retailing market, which includes sales to commercial, industrial, and residential customers, is estimated at USD 575.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 741.50 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.2%. Total electricity consumption in the United States was about 4.05 trillion kWh in 2022.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Talen Energy (TLN) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Capacity Expansion: Talen Energy has recently expanded its generation capacity through significant acquisitions. The company successfully closed the Freedom and Guernsey acquisitions, adding approximately 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. Furthermore, a pending acquisition of the Cornerstone assets (Waterford, Darby, and Lawrenceburg plants), totaling approximately 2.6 GW of natural gas capacity, is anticipated to close in mid-2026. These strategic additions are expected to substantially increase Talen's installed capacity and electricity generation volume, particularly enhancing its presence in the western PJM market, thereby contributing directly to higher electricity sales and capacity revenues.
- Growing Demand from Data Centers and Long-Term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): A significant driver of future revenue is the surging demand for power from data centers, fueled by the growth of AI and cloud infrastructure. Talen Energy has a notable long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Amazon Web Services (AWS), securing approximately $18 billion in revenue through 2042 by delivering carbon-free nuclear electricity from its Susquehanna plant. This PPA is expected to ramp up deliveries to between 1,680 MW and 1,920 MW by 2032, providing a stable and substantial contracted revenue stream. Talen aims to leverage this success as a blueprint for future collaborations with other digital infrastructure providers.
- Favorable PJM Capacity Market Dynamics and Rising Power Prices: The tightening PJM capacity markets are leading to record-high capacity auction prices, which are projected to significantly boost Talen's revenue from capacity sales. For instance, the price per MW-day for the 2025/2026 season is set at $270, increasing to $329 for 2026/2027. Analysts anticipate spark spreads in PJM to grow by over 15% from 2026 to 2028, and Talen's pragmatic hedging strategy is designed to capture these favorable pricing periods, ensuring cash flow stability while capitalizing on upside opportunities.
- Increased Generation Output and Operational Optimization: Talen Energy demonstrated strong operational performance in 2025, with a 10% increase in generation output compared to 2024, reaching approximately 40 terawatt hours (TWh), driven by increased dispatch opportunities across its fossil fleet. The company forecasts a significant expansion of its gas and other fossil fuel generation, from 18.3 TWh in 2024 to 47.3 TWh in 2027. The "Talen Flywheel" strategy is central to the company's approach, leveraging its generation assets and commercial capabilities to deliver durable cash flow growth through optimized operational performance and asset utilization.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In December 2024, Talen Energy executed a $1 billion share repurchase, primarily from Rubric Capital Management LP, utilizing proceeds from an $850 million incremental Term Loan B and an additional $150 million in cash. This left approximately $1.08 billion remaining under the repurchase program through 2026.
- As of February 2026, a $2 billion share repurchase program is continuing through 2028.
- In October 2023, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing the company to repurchase up to $300 million of its outstanding common stock through December 31, 2025. Approximately $14 million was used in January 2024 to repurchase 225,000 shares under this program.
Share Issuance
- Talen Energy emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2023, following a reorganization plan that included an infusion of $1.4 billion of new equity capital through a common equity rights offering.
- Prior to its emergence from bankruptcy, a May 2022 recapitalization transaction involved a new equity investment of up to $1.65 billion provided by an ad hoc group of unsecured bondholders, along with the equitization of over $1.4 billion of unsecured notes.
Inbound Investments
- Talen Energy emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2023, supported by a new equity owner group and an infusion of $1.4 billion of new equity capital through a common equity rights offering.
- A recapitalization transaction in May 2022, preceding the bankruptcy exit, included a new equity investment of up to $1.65 billion provided by an ad hoc group of unsecured bondholders.
Outbound Investments
- In July 2025, Talen Energy agreed to acquire the Freedom Energy Center in Pennsylvania and the Guernsey Power Station in Ohio for a net acquisition price of $3.5 billion.
- To fund these acquisitions, in October 2025, Talen secured $1.2 billion in term loan B financing and completed $2.69 billion in senior note offerings.
Capital Expenditures
- Talen Energy's expected capital expenditures for 2024 were in the range of $195 million to $205 million.
- Capital expenditure plans for 2026 and 2027 include investments totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, focused on nuclear fuel, power generation facilities, and other projects.
- A primary focus for capital expenditures is the development of up to 300 megawatts of digital currency mining capacity, powered by its zero-carbon digital infrastructure campus adjacent to the Susquehanna nuclear power generation station.
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| 03312026 | SRE | Sempra | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -4.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.7 |
| Rev LTM | 7,398 |
| Op Inc LTM | 980 |
| FCF LTM | 266 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 56 |
| CFO LTM | 1,308 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,333 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.7 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 189.5 |
| P/EBIT | 27.0 |
| P/E | 26.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $365.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 16.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/05/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $341.81 | $366.32 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 6.9% | -0.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.9% | 53.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Upside Capture | 195.34 | 170.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.2% | 37.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.03 | 1.83 | 2.01 | 2.11 | 1.38 | -0.06 |
| Up Beta | 4.09 | 3.07 | 2.46 | 2.45 | 1.17 | -0.21 |
| Down Beta | 1.96 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 1.31 | 1.61 | -0.38 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 254% | 337% | 264% | 230% | 333% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 30 | 65 | 139 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 194% | 186% | 232% | 200% | 118% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 33 | 61 | 112 | 298 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | 74.8% | 53.6% | 1.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 21.5% | 14.1% | 1.15 | 37.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.32 | 37.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.9% | 27.5% | 1.49 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.40 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 0.93 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -7.8% | 42.6% | -0.08 | 19.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | 50.4% | 49.6% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.5% | 17.2% | 0.46 | 30.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 13.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 18.8% | 0.14 | 16.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.2% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 20.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TLN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLN | 22.6% | 49.6% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.9% | 19.2% | 0.45 | 30.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 13.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 16.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 20.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -4.9% | -14.1% | -16.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.4% | -8.9% | -12.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.8% | 0.4% | 2.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.2% | 5.9% | 11.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.0% | -10.5% | -2.2% |
| 11/14/2024 | -1.6% | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| 8/13/2024 | 6.0% | 14.9% | 27.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -9.7% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 14.9% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -14.1% | -16.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2016 | 11/10/2016 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2016 | 08/05/2016 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/10/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/29/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 11/09/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 08/12/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 05/08/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 05/01/2015 | 424B3 |
| 09/30/2014 | 12/22/2014 | S-1/A |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.75 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.90 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 980.00 Mil | 1.08 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.08 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 975.00 Mil | 987.50 Mil | 1.00 Bil | -6.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.05 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 470.00 Mil | 480.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 495.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.75 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 81.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.05 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 980.00 Mil | 1.08 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 118.2% | Higher New | Actual: 495.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rubric, Capital Management Lp | See footnotes | Sell | 6272025 | 288.55 | 44,343 | 12,795,066 | 1,754,126,162 | Form | |
| 2 | Rubric, Capital Management Lp | See footnotes | Sell | 6272025 | 293.19 | 63,970 | 18,755,426 | 1,763,598,498 | Form | |
| 3 | Rubric, Capital Management Lp | See footnotes | Sell | 6272025 | 291.98 | 102,217 | 29,845,813 | 1,726,497,536 | Form | |
| 4 | Rubric, Capital Management Lp | See footnotes | Sell | 6272025 | 296.04 | 178,000 | 52,695,684 | 1,697,798,684 | Form | |
| 5 | Horton, Anthony R | Direct | Buy | 3102025 | 190.59 | 1,000 | 190,588 | 190,588 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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