Tearsheet

Talen Energy (TLN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $372.24 | Market Cap: $17.0 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Talen Energy (TLN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $372.24
Market Cap: $17.0 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Datacenter Power, Hydrogen Economy, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Nuclear-Powered Data Centers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TLN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Narrowed 2025 Guidance and Operational Softness

Talen Energy narrowed its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to the low end when reporting its third quarter 2025 results on November 5, 2025, signaling that the company was trending towards the lower range of its financial expectations for the year. The third quarter was also "operationally softer than internal hopes amid low volatility and incremental forced outages".

2. Higher Capital Expenditures

Adjusted Free Cash Flow was partially offset by higher capital expenditures related to an extended refueling outage at the Susquehanna plant, which could have been a concern for investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TLN Return----215%83%475%
Peers Return6%15%-4%7%67%37%183%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TLN Win Rate---83%83%70% 
Peers Win Rate38%37%27%50%52%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TLN Max Drawdown-----3%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-3%-15%-15%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

TLN has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven347 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven633 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven308 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2058 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Talen Energy (TLN)

Better Bets than Talen Energy (TLN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TLN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Talen Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TLNNRGAESTACDGXXMedian
NameTalen En.NRG Ener.AES TransAltaDigi Pow. 
Mkt Price365.46166.7713.7114.003.4014.00
Mkt Cap16.732.29.84.20.19.8
Rev LTM2,34329,77912,0942,484322,484
Op Inc LTM2902,5981,787134-21290
FCF LTM2261,699-2,215353-34226
FCF 3Y Avg-130-3,893404-2652
CFO LTM4342,7423,906630-32630
CFO 3Y Avg-8263,2231,009-22917

Growth & Margins

TLNNRGAESTACDGXXMedian
NameTalen En.NRG Ener.AES TransAltaDigi Pow. 
Rev Chg LTM5.1%5.9%-1.5%-11.0%-16.0%-1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-25.0%-0.9%-0.6%-0.6%15.5%-0.6%
Rev Chg Q38.7%5.7%1.9%-3.6%-12.1%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.1%1.4%0.5%-0.9%-3.4%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM12.4%8.7%14.8%5.4%-63.8%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.7%1.8%16.8%18.1%-65.7%10.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.8%4.8%0.1%-2.9%-0.6%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM18.5%9.2%32.3%25.4%-97.8%18.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%26.1%33.1%-74.9%14.5%
FCF/Rev LTM9.6%5.7%-18.3%14.2%-104.5%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.5%-31.4%13.9%-92.1%-15.4%

Valuation

TLNNRGAESTACDGXXMedian
NameTalen En.NRG Ener.AES TransAltaDigi Pow. 
Mkt Cap16.732.29.84.20.19.8
P/S8.31.00.81.63.21.6
P/EBIT44.013.04.933.3-4.713.0
P/E86.021.78.9-28.8-5.48.9
P/CFO44.811.42.46.4-3.36.4
Total Yield1.2%4.6%16.6%-1.7%-18.4%1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%5.3%1.8%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--5.5%-33.5%13.8%--5.5%
D/E0.20.43.31.10.00.4
Net D/E0.10.43.11.0-0.00.4

Returns

TLNNRGAESTACDGXXMedian
NameTalen En.NRG Ener.AES TransAltaDigi Pow. 
1M Rtn-11.6%-4.4%0.7%-20.3%-46.0%-11.6%
3M Rtn-3.3%13.8%4.9%16.7%50.9%13.8%
6M Rtn40.6%6.8%38.4%39.2%124.8%39.2%
12M Rtn71.9%70.6%11.5%23.4%-47.0%
3Y Rtn-337.1%-45.4%54.5%-54.5%
1M Excs Rtn-11.6%-4.4%0.7%-20.3%-46.0%-11.6%
3M Excs Rtn-9.3%7.7%3.0%10.5%48.3%7.7%
6M Excs Rtn25.8%-7.9%23.7%24.4%110.1%24.4%
12M Excs Rtn56.9%52.8%-2.0%12.8%-32.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-262.4%-117.0%-12.9%--12.9%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,471,816
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.9%
Average Daily Volume946,253
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.61
Basic Shares Quantity45,684,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
93020161110201610-Q 9/30/2016
6302016805201610-Q 6/30/2016
3312016510201610-Q 3/31/2016
12312015229201610-K 12/31/2015
93020151109201510-Q 9/30/2015
6302015812201510-Q 6/30/2015
3312015508201510-Q 3/31/2015
123120145012015424B3 12/31/2014
630201411052014S-1 6/30/2014
1231201312222014S-1/A 12/31/2013