Tearsheet

AES (AES)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.7 | Market Cap: $9.8 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

AES (AES)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.7
Market Cap: $9.8 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 310%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 310%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AES Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The AES Corporation (AES) stock experienced an approximate 4.2% increase from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, with its closing price moving from $13.38 on August 29, 2025, to $13.93 on December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key developments:

1. Positive Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Reaffirmed Guidance: AES reported its third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.75 on November 4, 2025. While slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.78, this figure surpassed Investing.com's forecast of $0.73 and represented a 5.6% improvement from the prior year. The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.10 to $2.26 and its EBITDA guidance of $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion. Following the earnings announcement, the stock reacted positively, rising 2.86% on November 5, 2025.

2. Strong Performance and Growth in Renewable Energy Projects: The company's robust performance in Q3 2025 was significantly driven by its renewable energy projects, with Renewables EBITDA increasing 46% year-to-date. AES is also on track to add 3.2 GW of new projects to its operating portfolio by the end of 2025, demonstrating its continued expansion in the clean energy sector. This focus on renewables positions AES well for future growth due to its diversified generation portfolio, which comprises over 53% renewable energy.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AES Return22%6%22%-31%-30%15%-13%
Peers Return-3%14%2%20%110%44%309%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AES Win Rate67%67%50%33%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate43%48%37%63%65%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AES Max Drawdown-52%-2%-21%-56%-33%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-8%-13%-17%-9%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VST, NRG, OGE, TLN, AES. See AES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAESS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven238 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven386.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4320 days1480 days

Compare to VST, NRG, OGE, TLN, AES


In The Past

AES's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/13/2022. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About AES (AES)

Better Bets than AES (AES)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AES

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AESVSTNRGOGETLNMedian
NameAES Vistra NRG Ener.OGE Ener.Talen En. 
Mkt Price13.91176.27169.1543.49370.93169.15
Mkt Cap9.959.732.68.816.916.9
Rev LTM12,09417,19129,7793,2952,34312,094
Op Inc LTM1,7872,1042,5988432901,787
FCF LTM-2,2151,6451,699-167226226
FCF 3Y Avg-3,8932,328130-133--1
CFO LTM3,9063,9912,7428824342,742
CFO 3Y Avg3,2234,349826994-2,109

Growth & Margins

AESVSTNRGOGETLNMedian
NameAES Vistra NRG Ener.OGE Ener.Talen En. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%5.7%5.9%18.0%5.1%5.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.6%9.5%-0.9%1.3%-25.0%-0.6%
Rev Chg Q1.9%-20.9%5.7%8.2%38.7%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%-7.1%1.4%2.5%10.1%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%12.2%8.7%25.6%12.4%12.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.8%17.0%1.8%24.0%10.7%16.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-7.5%4.8%0.2%6.8%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM32.3%23.2%9.2%26.8%18.5%23.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.1%26.8%2.9%33.9%-26.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.3%9.6%5.7%-5.1%9.6%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-31.4%14.4%0.5%-4.5%--2.0%

Valuation

AESVSTNRGOGETLNMedian
NameAES Vistra NRG Ener.OGE Ener.Talen En. 
Mkt Cap9.959.732.68.816.916.9
P/S0.83.91.02.88.42.8
P/EBIT4.930.113.010.744.313.0
P/E8.957.721.718.586.721.7
P/CFO2.416.611.410.645.111.4
Total Yield16.6%2.2%4.6%9.1%1.2%4.6%
Dividend Yield5.3%0.5%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-33.5%11.6%-5.5%-1.7%--3.6%
D/E3.30.30.40.60.20.4
Net D/E3.10.30.40.60.10.4

Returns

AESVSTNRGOGETLNMedian
NameAES Vistra NRG Ener.OGE Ener.Talen En. 
1M Rtn3.5%-5.1%0.7%-1.8%-6.2%-1.8%
3M Rtn10.0%-7.0%14.6%-0.9%-2.5%-0.9%
6M Rtn35.9%3.4%9.0%0.9%44.9%9.0%
12M Rtn9.9%9.9%69.9%5.1%67.3%9.9%
3Y Rtn-44.1%690.6%347.8%25.5%-186.7%
1M Excs Rtn2.2%-6.4%-0.6%-3.1%-7.4%-3.1%
3M Excs Rtn3.2%-11.9%9.1%-6.4%-10.5%-6.4%
6M Excs Rtn20.4%-12.1%-6.5%-14.5%29.3%-6.5%
12M Excs Rtn0.1%1.6%59.1%-7.7%63.3%1.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.0%591.5%263.2%-48.4%-107.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment  11,1419,66010,189
Total  11,1419,66010,189


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Renewables Strategic Business Unit (SBU)15,7359,533   
Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit (SBU)7,4147,532   
Utilities Strategic Business Unit (SBU)7,1666,311   
Current assets6,6497,643   
Other noncurrent assets, excluding right-of-use assets for operating leases2,8792,623   
Other intangible assets2,2431,841   
Investments in and advances to affiliates941952   
Noncurrent held-for-sale assets811    
Deferred income taxes396319   
Goodwill348362   
Debt service reserves and other deposits194177   
New Energy Technologies Strategic Business Unit (SBU)142   
Corporate and Other917   
Loan receivable 1,051   
Total44,79938,363   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,691,788
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.8%
Average Daily Volume9,958,971
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.48
Basic Shares Quantity712,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021