Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $40.3 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $40.3Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -108 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 923%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 581% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% | |
| Key risksTERN key risks include [1] its critical dependency on successful clinical trial outcomes for its pipeline, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -108 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 923%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 581% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
| Key risksTERN key risks include [1] its critical dependency on successful clinical trial outcomes for its pipeline, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TERN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) experienced significant stock movement from late 2024 through December 2025 due to several key developments across its clinical pipeline and financial operations.
**1. Positive Clinical Data for TERN-701 in CML.** Terns Pharmaceuticals announced compelling interim data from its Phase 1 CARDINAL study of TERN-701 for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in December 2024, demonstrating strong molecular responses and an encouraging safety profile. The drug's advancement, including the completion of dose escalation in January 2025 and the initiation of dose expansion in April 2025, along with positive drug-drug interaction data, positioned TERN-701 as a potential "best-in-class" therapy.
**2. Advancement of TERN-601 in Obesity.** The company reported positive Phase 1 results in September 2024 for TERN-601, an oral GLP-1R agonist for obesity, showing statistically significant and dose-dependent weight loss of up to 5.5% over 28 days with a favorable safety and tolerability profile. This led to the enrollment of the first patient in the Phase 2 FALCON trial in March 2025, with enrollment completed by June 2025, highlighting its competitive profile in the rapidly growing obesity market.
**3. Significant Capital Raises to Extend Financial Runway.** Terns substantially strengthened its financial position through a $172.7 million equity raise in September 2024, contributing to a cash runway expected to last into 2028. This was further bolstered by an upsized $650 million public offering announced and closed in December 2025, providing ample funding for ongoing research, clinical trials, and initial activities for potential commercial launches of its lead candidates.
**4. Anticipated Pivotal Q4 2025 Data Readouts.** Investor excitement was significantly driven by the expectation of crucial safety and efficacy data from the dose expansion portion of the TERN-701 CARDINAL study and 12-week data from the TERN-601 FALCON trial, both anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025. These upcoming milestones are considered pivotal, as strong results could significantly de-risk the programs and provide a clear path towards regulatory approval.
**5. Strong Analyst Endorsement and High Price Targets.** Multiple Wall Street analysts issued "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" ratings for Terns Pharmaceuticals, with average price targets ranging from $48.60 to $55.56 and a high forecast of $70.00 by December 2025. This strong analyst confidence reflected a positive outlook on the company's differentiated late-stage assets and their substantial market potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TERN Return | � | � | 44% | -36% | -15% | 619% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 4% | 73% | 42% | 29% | 18% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TERN Win Rate | � | 10% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 45% | 58% | 33% | 57% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TERN Max Drawdown | � | � | -79% | -67% | -30% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -29% | -27% | -31% | -15% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMY, PFE, ELVN, MDGL, LLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TERN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1716.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,287 days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Terns Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -94.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -94.5% loss requires a 1716.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Terns Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.8 |
| Rev LTM | 24,387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,656 |
| FCF LTM | -61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -68 |
| CFO LTM | 5,433 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,582 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.8 |
| P/S | 10.1 |
| P/EBIT | 0.9 |
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/CFO | -4.0 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 153.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 26.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 176.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 7.6% | 33.7% | 146.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.7% | 7.4% | 16.1% |
| 3/20/2025 | 6.7% | -0.6% | -13.7% |
| 11/12/2024 | -5.4% | -17.6% | -8.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | -2.6% | -10.1% | 0.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | 7.3% | -2.4% | -24.6% |
| 11/14/2023 | 5.3% | 11.3% | 98.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | -13.7% | -11.2% | -25.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 17.2% | 30.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -10.6% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 17.2% | 109.5% | 146.3% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -17.6% | -27.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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