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Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $26.57 | Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $26.57
Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -106 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 666%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 283%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 104%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -106 Mil
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 666%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 283%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 104%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TERN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) experienced a significant stock movement of approximately 290% from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Positive Clinical Trial Data for TERN-701 in CML: The company reported compelling efficacy and safety data from its Phase 1 CARDINAL trial for TERN-701, a treatment for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Initial interim data showing molecular responses and an encouraging safety profile was released earlier in 2025, and updated data, including a 75% cumulative major molecular response rate by 24 weeks, was announced for oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting in December 2025. This promising data was noted to exceed historical benchmarks and directly contributed to a substantial stock surge.

2. Numerous Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets: Following the positive clinical data, several financial analysts upgraded Terns Pharmaceuticals' stock ratings and significantly raised their price targets throughout October and November 2025. For example, Mizuho upgraded the stock to "outperform" and increased its price target to $33 in November 2025, while Truist Financial raised its price target to $35, and BMO Capital increased its target to $30.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TERN Return--44%-36%-15%390%284%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%3%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TERN Win Rate-10%58%42%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TERN Max Drawdown---79%-67%-30%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTERNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1716.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1287 days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Terns Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -94.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -94.5% loss requires a 1716.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)

Better Bets than Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Terns Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TERNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTerns Ph.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price27.13457.362.631.1711.5421.9316.73
Mkt Cap2.5116.9----59.7
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-106-92-5--93-70-92
FCF LTM-743,337-6--60-64-60
FCF 3Y Avg-682,064-10----10
CFO LTM-743,718-6--60-64-60
CFO 3Y Avg-682,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

TERNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTerns Ph.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

TERNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTerns Ph.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap2.5116.9----59.7
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-3.222.4----9.6
P/E-3.727.2----11.8
P/CFO-4.626.9----11.2
Total Yield-26.9%3.7%-----11.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.2%2.3%-----6.5%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.9-0.0-----0.5

Returns

TERNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTerns Ph.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn55.7%8.5%-23.2%-4.6%-15.8%
3M Rtn284.3%15.2%--14.5%-15.2%
6M Rtn666.4%3.1%----334.7%
12M Rtn283.2%-1.4%----140.9%
3Y Rtn345.5%44.0%----194.7%
1M Excs Rtn54.4%7.2%-22.0%-5.9%-14.6%
3M Excs Rtn270.0%9.7%--10.8%-10.8%
6M Excs Rtn650.9%-12.4%----319.3%
12M Excs Rtn327.7%-15.2%----156.3%
3Y Excs Rtn257.4%-28.7%----114.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious  1  
Total  1  


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious-103    
Total-103    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious-90    
Total-90    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious 287 9224
Total 287 9224


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,515,874
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-11.0%
Average Daily Volume7,320,680
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.30
Basic Shares Quantity91,575,039
Short % of Basic Shares10.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024320202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022327202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021