Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $26.57 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $26.57Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -106 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 666%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 283% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -106 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 666%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 283% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -31% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 104% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TERN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) experienced a significant stock movement of approximately 290% from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Positive Clinical Trial Data for TERN-701 in CML: The company reported compelling efficacy and safety data from its Phase 1 CARDINAL trial for TERN-701, a treatment for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Initial interim data showing molecular responses and an encouraging safety profile was released earlier in 2025, and updated data, including a 75% cumulative major molecular response rate by 24 weeks, was announced for oral presentation at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting in December 2025. This promising data was noted to exceed historical benchmarks and directly contributed to a substantial stock surge.
2. Numerous Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets: Following the positive clinical data, several financial analysts upgraded Terns Pharmaceuticals' stock ratings and significantly raised their price targets throughout October and November 2025. For example, Mizuho upgraded the stock to "outperform" and increased its price target to $33 in November 2025, while Truist Financial raised its price target to $35, and BMO Capital increased its target to $30.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TERN Return | - | - | 44% | -36% | -15% | 390% | 284% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 3% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TERN Win Rate | - | 10% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TERN Max Drawdown | - | - | -79% | -67% | -30% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TERN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1716.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1287 days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Terns Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -94.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -94.5% loss requires a 1716.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Terns Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.7 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -350.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -302.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -304.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.7 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 11.2 |
| Total Yield | -11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 334.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 140.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 194.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 319.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 156.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 114.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious | 1 | ||||
| Total | 1 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious | -103 | ||||
| Total | -103 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious | -90 | ||||
| Total | -90 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious | 287 | 92 | 24 | ||
| Total | 287 | 92 | 24 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
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