Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -108 Mil
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 923%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 581%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8%
4  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%
5  Key risks
TERN key risks include [1] its critical dependency on successful clinical trial outcomes for its pipeline, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -108 Mil
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 923%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 581%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8%
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%
6 Key risks
TERN key risks include [1] its critical dependency on successful clinical trial outcomes for its pipeline, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TERN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) experienced significant stock movement from late 2024 through December 2025 due to several key developments across its clinical pipeline and financial operations. **1. Positive Clinical Data for TERN-701 in CML.** Terns Pharmaceuticals announced compelling interim data from its Phase 1 CARDINAL study of TERN-701 for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in December 2024, demonstrating strong molecular responses and an encouraging safety profile. The drug's advancement, including the completion of dose escalation in January 2025 and the initiation of dose expansion in April 2025, along with positive drug-drug interaction data, positioned TERN-701 as a potential "best-in-class" therapy.

**2. Advancement of TERN-601 in Obesity.** The company reported positive Phase 1 results in September 2024 for TERN-601, an oral GLP-1R agonist for obesity, showing statistically significant and dose-dependent weight loss of up to 5.5% over 28 days with a favorable safety and tolerability profile. This led to the enrollment of the first patient in the Phase 2 FALCON trial in March 2025, with enrollment completed by June 2025, highlighting its competitive profile in the rapidly growing obesity market.

**3. Significant Capital Raises to Extend Financial Runway.** Terns substantially strengthened its financial position through a $172.7 million equity raise in September 2024, contributing to a cash runway expected to last into 2028. This was further bolstered by an upsized $650 million public offering announced and closed in December 2025, providing ample funding for ongoing research, clinical trials, and initial activities for potential commercial launches of its lead candidates.

**4. Anticipated Pivotal Q4 2025 Data Readouts.** Investor excitement was significantly driven by the expectation of crucial safety and efficacy data from the dose expansion portion of the TERN-701 CARDINAL study and 12-week data from the TERN-601 FALCON trial, both anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025. These upcoming milestones are considered pivotal, as strong results could significantly de-risk the programs and provide a clear path towards regulatory approval.

**5. Strong Analyst Endorsement and High Price Targets.** Multiple Wall Street analysts issued "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" ratings for Terns Pharmaceuticals, with average price targets ranging from $48.60 to $55.56 and a high forecast of $70.00 by December 2025. This strong analyst confidence reflected a positive outlook on the company's differentiated late-stage assets and their substantial market potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TERN Return44%-36%-15%619%
Peers Return4%73%42%29%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TERN Win Rate10%58%42%42%67% 
Peers Win Rate44%45%58%33%57%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TERN Max Drawdown-79%-67%-30%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-27%-31%-15%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BMY, PFE, ELVN, MDGL, LLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTERNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1716.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,287 days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Terns Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -94.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -94.5% loss requires a 1716.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)

Better Bets than Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TERN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.7%-6.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.9%10.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.7%2.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.4%11.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Terns Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TERNBMYPFEELVNMDGLLLYMedian
NameTerns Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Enliven .Madrigal.Eli Lilly 
Mkt Price39.9054.1925.1916.87591.021,071.4447.05
Mkt Cap3.7110.3143.21.013.3962.061.8
Rev LTM048,03462,786074153,25824,387
Op Inc LTM-10811,42015,417-112-30722,8825,656
FCF LTM-7815,30210,376-72-161-50-61
FCF 3Y Avg-7113,5988,927-66-301-156-68
CFO LTM-7816,62113,077-72-16110,9385,433
CFO 3Y Avg-7114,84612,127-66-2987,2303,582

Growth & Margins

TERNBMYPFEELVNMDGLLLYMedian
NameTerns Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Enliven .Madrigal.Eli Lilly 
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%3.9%-864.2%36.8%20.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.0%-13.2%--23.4%1.0%
Rev Chg Q-2.8%-5.9%-362.0%37.6%20.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%-1.6%-43.7%8.7%4.7%
Op Mgn LTM-23.8%24.6%--41.5%43.0%24.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-19.0%19.4%--35.6%19.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%-1.4%-18.6%1.8%2.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-34.6%20.8%--21.7%20.5%20.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-31.7%18.9%--17.8%18.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-31.9%16.5%--21.7%-0.1%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-29.0%13.9%--0.5%13.9%

Valuation

TERNBMYPFEELVNMDGLLLYMedian
NameTerns Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Enliven .Madrigal.Eli Lilly 
Mkt Cap3.7110.3143.21.013.3962.061.8
P/S-2.32.3-17.918.110.1
P/EBIT-33.711.012.1-9.3-48.954.10.9
P/E-38.718.314.6-10.8-46.069.71.9
P/CFO-47.16.611.0-14.6-82.788.0-4.0
Total Yield-2.6%10.0%13.6%-9.3%-2.2%2.0%-0.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%4.5%6.8%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.1%13.2%5.5%-7.1%-7.4%0.1%-3.5%
D/E0.00.50.40.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.10.30.3-0.5-0.10.0-0.0

Returns

TERNBMYPFEELVNMDGLLLYMedian
NameTerns Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Enliven .Madrigal.Eli Lilly 
1M Rtn51.6%17.2%0.6%-22.4%7.9%1.1%4.5%
3M Rtn429.9%22.0%6.7%-11.0%34.3%42.7%28.2%
6M Rtn923.1%18.8%8.8%-20.8%106.8%41.0%29.9%
12M Rtn580.9%-0.8%2.5%-24.9%91.6%40.6%21.5%
3Y Rtn348.8%-16.2%-42.0%315.5%105.9%200.3%153.1%
1M Excs Rtn44.2%15.4%-1.6%-26.6%3.5%-0.8%1.3%
3M Excs Rtn427.1%20.0%4.5%-17.4%32.2%40.0%26.1%
6M Excs Rtn970.8%5.2%-4.9%-30.3%95.4%26.1%15.7%
12M Excs Rtn473.8%-14.3%-10.8%-43.8%80.1%25.7%7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn439.0%-90.8%-116.1%222.2%841.1%130.8%176.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Research and development of its portfolio of small-molecule product candidates to address serious2692871689224
Total2692871689224


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,781,897
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.7%
Average Daily Volume3,767,721
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.33
Basic Shares Quantity91,701,529
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/20257.6%33.7%146.3%
8/5/2025-6.7%7.4%16.1%
3/20/20256.7%-0.6%-13.7%
11/12/2024-5.4%-17.6%-8.1%
8/5/2024-2.6%-10.1%0.3%
3/14/20247.3%-2.4%-24.6%
11/14/20235.3%11.3%98.8%
8/8/2023-13.7%-11.2%-25.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1088
# Negative688
Median Positive6.2%17.2%30.9%
Median Negative-6.1%-10.6%-10.9%
Max Positive17.2%109.5%146.3%
Max Negative-16.2%-17.6%-27.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024320202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022327202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021