Tearsheet

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $86.7 | Market Cap: $148.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $86.7
Market Cap: $148.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Diversified Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 14%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 140%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 14%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 140%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) stock experienced significant upward movement between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, driven by a series of positive financial reports and strategic developments. Here are five key factors contributing to this performance:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance. On August 28, 2025, TD Bank Group reported robust third-quarter results, showcasing a significant rebound from the previous year's losses. Adjusted earnings increased by 6%, with Canadian banking achieving record revenues, U.S. Retail operations demonstrating recovery, and Wealth Management net income surging by 63%. These results underscored the strength of TD's diversified business model.

2. Better-than-Expected Q4 and Fiscal 2025 Results. The bank announced its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results on December 4, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter rose by 22% year-over-year, leading to investor confidence in the bank's financial health.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TD Return6%41%-12%5%-13%70%102%
Peers Return-14%35%-16%18%38%37%118%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TD Win Rate50%67%50%50%42%100% 
Peers Win Rate50%60%42%55%62%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TD Max Drawdown-39%-0%-21%-12%-16%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-2%-27%-13%-4%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven289 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven792 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven193.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven694 days1480 days

Compare to C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY


In The Past

Toronto-Dominion Bank's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Better Bets than Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

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0DASHBOARDS 
1Fundamental Metrics: ... 
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Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Toronto-Dominion Bank

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TDCJPMBACWFCRYMedian
NameToronto-.CitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Royal Ba. 
Mkt Price86.08107.79316.1053.8890.21160.5699.00
Mkt Cap147.8196.2873.2402.3287.1226.0256.5
Rev LTM60,13085,244179,430107,26482,53264,39983,888
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM17,240-75,968-119,74861,472-14,21884,8061,511
FCF 3Y Avg-24,666-64,799-65,10734,2449,17237,133-7,747
CFO LTM19,461-69,391-119,74861,472-14,21887,1712,622
CFO 3Y Avg-22,669-58,153-65,10734,2449,17239,625-6,748

Growth & Margins

TDCJPMBACWFCRYMedian
NameToronto-.CitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Royal Ba. 
Rev Chg LTM10.1%8.4%8.6%8.9%0.2%16.4%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.6%5.0%13.4%5.2%2.9%9.9%7.6%
Rev Chg Q9.7%9.6%8.8%10.8%5.3%15.5%9.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%2.3%2.1%2.6%1.3%3.7%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM32.4%-81.4%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%135.4%7.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-46.6%-72.0%-36.4%32.7%11.2%66.0%-12.6%
FCF/Rev LTM28.7%-89.1%-66.7%57.3%-17.2%131.7%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-50.2%-80.3%-36.4%32.7%11.2%61.6%-12.6%

Valuation

TDCJPMBACWFCRYMedian
NameToronto-.CitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Royal Ba. 
Mkt Cap147.8196.2873.2402.3287.1226.0256.5
P/S2.12.24.93.63.22.93.1
P/EBIT-------
P/E6.012.615.013.012.79.712.6
P/CFO6.5-2.7-7.36.3-18.82.1-0.3
Total Yield16.6%8.0%6.7%7.7%9.9%10.3%8.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-22.8%-55.7%-7.5%11.7%6.9%22.1%-0.3%
D/E3.32.00.60.90.82.81.5
Net D/E1.4-1.2-0.3-0.7-0.60.4-0.5

Returns

TDCJPMBACWFCRYMedian
NameToronto-.CitigroupJPMorgan.Bank of .Wells Fa.Royal Ba. 
1M Rtn6.9%6.7%2.2%0.6%4.1%10.1%5.4%
3M Rtn16.8%11.7%4.5%6.4%10.8%11.3%11.0%
6M Rtn26.0%42.4%21.8%22.8%21.8%28.9%24.4%
12M Rtn59.9%54.9%32.6%18.9%26.2%32.8%32.7%
3Y Rtn48.4%163.4%159.1%68.2%123.5%83.6%103.6%
1M Excs Rtn5.6%5.4%1.0%-0.6%2.8%8.9%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn11.4%7.9%2.1%2.5%9.1%6.5%7.2%
6M Excs Rtn10.5%26.9%6.4%7.3%6.3%13.4%8.9%
12M Excs Rtn47.7%41.8%17.7%3.8%9.0%19.7%18.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-22.1%79.4%76.0%-15.6%31.8%10.1%21.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,685,478
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202524.2%
Average Daily Volume2,073,301
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.22
Basic Shares Quantity1,716,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
430202152720216-K 4/30/2021
131202122520216-K 1/31/2021
103120201203202040-F 10/31/2020
731202082720206-K 7/31/2020
430202052820206-K 4/30/2020
131202022720206-K 1/31/2020
731201982920196-K 7/31/2019
430201952320196-K 4/30/2019
131201922820196-K 1/31/2019
731201883020186-K 7/31/2018
430201852420186-K 4/30/2018
131201830120186-K 1/31/2018
731201783120176-K 7/31/2017
430201752520176-K 4/30/2017
131201730220176-K 1/31/2017
731201682520166-K 7/31/2016