Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $91.17 | Market Cap: $154.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $91.17Market Cap: $154.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -114%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -117% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% | Key risksTD key risks include [1] systemic anti-money laundering failures incurring massive financial penalties and a blocked U.S. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -114%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -117% |
| Key risksTD key risks include [1] systemic anti-money laundering failures incurring massive financial penalties and a blocked U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, key points contributing to Toronto-Dominion Bank's stock movement include:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: The Toronto-Dominion Bank reported robust third-quarter 2025 results, with net income of C$3.3 billion, a significant turnaround from a loss in the prior year's Q3. Adjusted earnings increased by 6% to C$3.9 billion, driven by record highs in Canadian banking revenue and deposits, a recovery in U.S. Retail, and a 63% surge in Wealth Management net income. Following these results, the stock experienced a pre-market surge of 9.28%.
2. Exceeding Q4 2025 Earnings Expectations and Dividend Increase: TD Bank announced strong fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of C$2.18 and revenue of C$16.03 billion. The bank also increased its quarterly dividend to C$1.08 per share and projected an adjusted EPS growth of 6–8% for 2026, signaling confidence in its outlook. This positive news led to a 1.8% increase in the stock price during pre-market trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TD Return | 6% | 41% | -12% | 5% | -13% | 81% | 115% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 38% | -18% | 18% | 25% | 43% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TD Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 45% | 53% | 58% | 77% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TD Max Drawdown | -39% | -0% | -21% | -12% | -16% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -1% | -26% | -11% | -7% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RY, JPM, BMO, BNS, CM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 987 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 792 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 694 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY
In The Past
Toronto-Dominion Bank's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Toronto-Dominion Bank
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 114.3 |
| Rev LTM | 49,189 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 6,786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,572 |
| CFO LTM | 7,824 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,936 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 114.3 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.4 |
| P/CFO | 4.6 |
| Total Yield | 10.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| D/E | 2.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.1% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Banking | 686,795 | 673,398 | 635,094 | 514,681 | 512,886 |
| U.S. Retail | 606,572 | 560,585 | 585,297 | 559,503 | 566,629 |
| Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking | 584,468 | 560,303 | 526,374 | ||
| Corporate | 160,699 | 138,560 | 147,042 | 145,052 | 163,980 |
| Wealth Management and Insurance | 23,217 | 22,293 | 23,721 | ||
| Canadian Retail | 509,436 | 472,370 | |||
| Total | 2,061,751 | 1,955,139 | 1,917,528 | 1,728,672 | 1,715,865 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 4302021 | 5272021 | 6-K 4/30/2021 |
| 1312021 | 2252021 | 6-K 1/31/2021 |
| 10312020 | 12032020 | 40-F 10/31/2020 |
| 7312020 | 8272020 | 6-K 7/31/2020 |
| 4302020 | 5282020 | 6-K 4/30/2020 |
| 1312020 | 2272020 | 6-K 1/31/2020 |
| 7312019 | 8292019 | 6-K 7/31/2019 |
| 4302019 | 5232019 | 6-K 4/30/2019 |
| 1312019 | 2282019 | 6-K 1/31/2019 |
| 7312018 | 8302018 | 6-K 7/31/2018 |
| 4302018 | 5242018 | 6-K 4/30/2018 |
| 1312018 | 3012018 | 6-K 1/31/2018 |
| 7312017 | 8312017 | 6-K 7/31/2017 |
| 4302017 | 5252017 | 6-K 4/30/2017 |
| 1312017 | 3022017 | 6-K 1/31/2017 |
| 7312016 | 8252016 | 6-K 7/31/2016 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |