Talos Energy (TALO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.875 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Talos Energy (TALO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.875Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 65% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Energy Security & Supply. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and Offshore Hydrocarbon Production. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 65% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Energy Security & Supply. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, and Offshore Hydrocarbon Production. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TALO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Talos Energy (TALO) experienced significant positive stock movement, with several key factors contributing to its performance in the approximate period leading up to early December 2025.
1. Strategic Acquisition of QuarterNorth Energy. In January 2024, Talos Energy announced the acquisition of QuarterNorth Energy for $1.29 billion. This transaction was projected to immediately increase Talos's production by approximately 30 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) for 2024 and add about 69 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe) in proved reserves. The acquisition was expected to be immediately accretive to shareholders on key financial metrics and generate approximately $50 million in annual run-rate synergies by year-end 2024.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Talos Energy reported impressive third-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analysts' expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company achieved an EPS of -$0.19 against an anticipated -$0.36, and revenue reached $450 million, exceeding the forecasted $426 million. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter where the company exceeded EPS forecasts, indicating robust financial performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TALO Return | -73% | 19% | 93% | -25% | -32% | 16% | -63% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | -1% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TALO Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 67% | 42% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TALO Max Drawdown | -83% | 0% | -0% | -41% | -36% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TALO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -83.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 511.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG
In The Past
Talos Energy's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can Talos Energy Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| After TALO's 18% Climb in a Week, FANG Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Talos Energy (TALO) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Talos Energy Stock Moved: TALO Stock Has Lost 40% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Revenues | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| After TALO’s 18% Climb in a Week, FANG Looks Like the Stronger Long-Term Play | August 26th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TALO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Talos Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 91.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 18,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 2,487 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,978 |
| CFO LTM | 9,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,091 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 51.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 1,458 | 1,652 | |||
| Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) | 0 | ||||
| All Other | 0 | 20 | |||
| Natural gas | 131 | 54 | 55 | ||
| Natural gas liquid (NGL) | 50 | 15 | 20 | ||
| Oil | 1,064 | 507 | 833 | ||
| Total | 1,458 | 1,652 | 1,245 | 576 | 928 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 198 | ||||
| Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) | -11 | ||||
| Total | 187 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |