Swarmer (SWMR)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $41.93 | Market Cap: $673.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Swarmer (SWMR)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $41.93Market Cap: $673.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Swarm Robotics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 237% Key risksSWMR key risks include [1] an over-reliance on the conflict in Ukraine for its unique operational dataset and [2] the potential loss of its competitive advantage in rapid, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Swarm Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 237% |
| Key risksSWMR key risks include [1] an over-reliance on the conflict in Ukraine for its unique operational dataset and [2] the potential loss of its competitive advantage in rapid, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Swarmer (SWMR) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Widening Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 2026. Swarmer reported a significant widening of its net loss to $4.5 million in its fiscal Q1 2026, announced on May 13, 2026. This was a substantial increase from a net loss of $0.7 million in the corresponding fiscal quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher operating expenses. The report contributed to a 16.0% decline in the stock price on the day following its release.
2. Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026 Revenue. The company's fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was reported at a modest $20,325 on May 13, 2026. This represented a decline compared to the prior year's fiscal Q1, which was largely attributed to a wind-down of service-related deferred revenue from its largest customer in Ukraine. This low revenue figure, alongside widening losses, highlighted challenges in converting its technology into substantial top-line growth.
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Swarmer (SWMR) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Widening Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 2026. Swarmer reported a significant widening of its net loss to $4.5 million in its fiscal Q1 2026, announced on May 13, 2026. This was a substantial increase from a net loss of $0.7 million in the corresponding fiscal quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher operating expenses. The report contributed to a 16.0% decline in the stock price on the day following its release.
2. Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026 Revenue. The company's fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was reported at a modest $20,325 on May 13, 2026. This represented a decline compared to the prior year's fiscal Q1, which was largely attributed to a wind-down of service-related deferred revenue from its largest customer in Ukraine. This low revenue figure, alongside widening losses, highlighted challenges in converting its technology into substantial top-line growth.
3. Correction from Unsustainable Post-IPO Valuation. After its initial public offering in March 2026, Swarmer's stock experienced a highly speculative surge, with its share price rising from an IPO price of $5.00 to exceed $80 by early June 2026. This created an extremely high valuation, exemplified by a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 31,000x in early June, far detached from the company's minimal current revenues. The subsequent decline in the stock price since late March, including a significant drop from its June highs, indicates a market correction to a more realistic valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWMR | -12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 3.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 14.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWMR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | -8.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 3.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWMR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 3.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SWMR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | -8.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 3.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SWMR Return | - | - | - | - | - | 49% | 49% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 4% | 24% | 285% | 47% | -14% | 533% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SWMR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 55% | 57% | 58% | 55% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SWMR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -38% | -27% | -27% | -36% | -50% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, NOC, LMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SWMR has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
SWMR has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Swarmer (SWMR)
Swarmer (SWMR) is a defense technology company specializing in software for autonomous warfare. The company develops and licenses its proprietary Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS), which enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms at significant scale. Positioning itself as a critical software layer, Swarmer’s vendor-agnostic platform is designed to integrate with drones from any manufacturer, providing essential interoperability in an increasingly fragmented hardware market.
Swarmer primarily serves global military forces, targeting the rapidly expanding military drone market. A core competitive advantage stems from its combat-proven experience; the Trident OS has been continuously deployed in Ukraine since 2023, executing over 100,000 combat missions. This operational deployment generates a unique and comprehensive dataset, fostering rapid capability enhancements and delivering an unmatched pace of innovation that traditional defense contractors cannot replicate.
The company operates on a per-unit software licensing model, which offers highly attractive unit economics with expanding gross margins as market volume increases. Swarmer is actively pursuing a multi-domain expansion strategy, extending its software capabilities from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to include unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and planned integration with missiles, thereby significantly broadening its addressable market and capturing value across the full spectrum of unmanned military systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Swarmer:
- Swarmer is like the Android operating system for military drones, making them smart and interoperable across different hardware manufacturers.
- Swarmer is the 'Intel Inside' for military drone swarms, providing the embedded operating system that powers their autonomous capabilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The major product offered by Swarmer (SWMR) is:
- Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS): A combat-proven software operating system that enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms and other unmanned systems across air, ground, and maritime domains.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Swarmer (SWMR) primarily sells to other companies. Its major customers are:
-
Drone Manufacturers: Swarmer licenses its Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS) to drone manufacturers. The company positions itself as a strategic partner to these manufacturers, helping them integrate autonomous software to differentiate their products and defend margins in a competitive market. The background information states: "By designing our software to integrate with drones from any manufacturer, we partner with leading manufacturers" and "As drone manufacturers face margin compression, we believe our software becomes an increasingly critical value differentiator, positioning us as a strategic partner able to help manufacturers defend margins and win competitive procurements."
While the company states it partners with "leading manufacturers," the provided background information does not list the specific names or symbols of these customer companies.
The ultimate end-users of the drones equipped with Swarmer's software are military forces, as indicated by its "combat-proven software that enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms at significant scale" and its continuous operational deployment in Ukraine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Serhii Kupriienko, Chief Executive Officer (Global) and Director
Serhii Kupriienko is a co-founder of Swarmer. He previously served as an AI and computer vision leader at Ring and Squad Ukraine. He holds a Master's in Computer Science and an MBA from Stanford GSB.
Alexander Fink, Chief Executive Officer (U.S.), President, and Director
Alexander Fink, also a co-founder of Swarmer, has founded other AI and defense-related ventures. He previously served as CEO of Otherweb and Panopteo, and held prior roles at Ambarella and Zoran. He holds a B.A. from Technion and an MBA from UMass Amherst.
Brooks Ensign, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Brooks Ensign has held senior finance roles as Vice President Controller at Aptose and Global Corporate Controller at Silvaco. He is a U.S. Navy veteran and holds an MBA and BA from Harvard.
Jennifer DeTrani, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel, and Secretary
Jennifer DeTrani previously served as Chief Legal and Corporate Affairs Officer at Nisos and was co-founder and General Counsel at Wickr. Earlier in her career, she was an Assistant U.S. Attorney with the U.S. Department of Justice. She holds a J.D. from the University of Michigan.
Erik Prince, Non-Executive Chairman
Erik Prince is the founder of Blackwater and is known as a private equity investor with extensive global defense and logistics experience. He also has a background as a U.S. Navy SEAL.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary key risk to Swarmer's business is its over-reliance on the continuous combat deployment in Ukraine since 2023 for its operational dataset and competitive advantage.
The company explicitly states that this deployment has generated a "key strategic asset: a comprehensive operational dataset" and enables "compressed iteration cycles in active combat" that are unachievable by competitors. If the conflict in Ukraine were to significantly de-escalate, end, or change in a way that reduces Swarmer's continuous operational access, its ability to gather critical data, validate performance, and maintain its claimed competitive advantages in autonomous capability maturity and rapid innovation velocity would be severely impacted.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Expansion into New Military Domains: Swarmer's systematic expansion from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to multi-domain operations, including unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and planned integration with missiles and guidance kits, is expected to significantly broaden its addressable market and drive future revenue growth by addressing the full spectrum of unmanned systems requirements.
- Increased Market Penetration and Adoption driven by Combat-Proven Software and Data Advantage: The continuous combat deployment of Swarmer's Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS) in Ukraine since 2023, coupled with the generation of a comprehensive operational dataset and rapid capability enhancement cycles, provides a significant competitive advantage. This combat-proven experience and data superiority are expected to lead to broader deployment and increased licensing of its software across military forces.
- Capitalizing on Global Military Drone Market Growth via a Vendor-Agnostic Platform: Swarmer is strategically positioned to capture value from the projected global military drone market growth, which is expected to exceed 12% compound annual growth through 2030. Its vendor-agnostic architecture allows integration with drones from any manufacturer, enabling the company to benefit from the entire market's expansion and secure strategic partnerships, rather than being limited by proprietary hardware platforms.
- Scalable Per-Unit Software Licensing Model: The company's business model, based on per-unit software licensing fees, is designed for attractive unit economics. As the market scales and the volume of licensed units increases, the stable per-unit fees combined with incremental costs approaching zero for additional licenses are expected to drive substantial revenue growth and expanding gross margins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Swarmer completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on March 17, 2026, offering 3,000,000 shares of common stock at $5.00 per share and raising approximately $15 million in gross proceeds.
- The underwriters were granted a 30-day option to purchase an additional 450,000 shares of common stock at the IPO price.
Inbound Investments
- Swarmer raised a $2.7 million seed round in September 2024.
- The company secured a $15 million Series A funding round in September 2025, led by Broadband Capital Investments.
Capital Expenditures
- For the six months ended December 2025, Swarmer reported capital expenditures of approximately $246,990, primarily allocated to the purchase of property, plant, and equipment.
- Net proceeds from the IPO are intended for ongoing operations, including expanding capabilities and product offerings, hiring, integrating with drone manufacturers' hardware, and general corporate purposes.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,610 |
| Op Inc LTM | 28 |
| FCF LTM | -118 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -49 |
| CFO LTM | -40 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 24 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.16 | 1.82 | 0.45 | 0.81 | -0.49 | 0.10 |
| Up Beta | -3.53 | -6.07 | -3.96 | 5.71 | -1.56 | 1.38 |
| Down Beta | 7.09 | 7.26 | 5.84 | 11.53 | 7.33 | 5.55 |
| Up Capture | 36% | 224% | 63% | -35% | -15% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Down Capture | 257% | 147% | 125% | -252% | -167% | -90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 37 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWMR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWMR | 32.8% | 236.9% | 1.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 3.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | -8.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 35.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | -0.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | -23.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWMR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWMR | 5.8% | 236.9% | 1.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 3.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | -8.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 35.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | -0.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | -23.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SWMR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWMR | 2.9% | 236.9% | 1.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 3.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | -8.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 35.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | -0.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | -23.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | -2.5% | 3.6% | 49.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 49.2% | |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | ||
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 49.2% | |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | ||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | -2.5% | 3.6% | 49.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 49.2% | |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | ||
| Max Positive | 3.6% | 49.2% | |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | ||
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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