Swarmer (SWMR)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $41.93 | Market Cap: $673.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Swarmer (SWMR)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $41.93
Market Cap: $673.6 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Swarm Robotics, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -18%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 237%

Key risks
SWMR key risks include [1] an over-reliance on the conflict in Ukraine for its unique operational dataset and [2] the potential loss of its competitive advantage in rapid, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Swarm Robotics, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
2 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 237%
3 Key risks
SWMR key risks include [1] an over-reliance on the conflict in Ukraine for its unique operational dataset and [2] the potential loss of its competitive advantage in rapid, Show more.

SWMR in ETFs

Weight = SWMR's share of each fund

IWM0.00%
IWO0.01%
VTWO0.00%
IWN0.00%

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/22/2026

Swarmer (SWMR) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Widening Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 2026. Swarmer reported a significant widening of its net loss to $4.5 million in its fiscal Q1 2026, announced on May 13, 2026. This was a substantial increase from a net loss of $0.7 million in the corresponding fiscal quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher operating expenses. The report contributed to a 16.0% decline in the stock price on the day following its release.

2. Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026 Revenue. The company's fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was reported at a modest $20,325 on May 13, 2026. This represented a decline compared to the prior year's fiscal Q1, which was largely attributed to a wind-down of service-related deferred revenue from its largest customer in Ukraine. This low revenue figure, alongside widening losses, highlighted challenges in converting its technology into substantial top-line growth.

Show more
Updated on 7/22/2026

Swarmer (SWMR) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Widening Net Losses in Fiscal Q1 2026. Swarmer reported a significant widening of its net loss to $4.5 million in its fiscal Q1 2026, announced on May 13, 2026. This was a substantial increase from a net loss of $0.7 million in the corresponding fiscal quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher operating expenses. The report contributed to a 16.0% decline in the stock price on the day following its release.

2. Decline in Fiscal Q1 2026 Revenue. The company's fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was reported at a modest $20,325 on May 13, 2026. This represented a decline compared to the prior year's fiscal Q1, which was largely attributed to a wind-down of service-related deferred revenue from its largest customer in Ukraine. This low revenue figure, alongside widening losses, highlighted challenges in converting its technology into substantial top-line growth.

3. Correction from Unsustainable Post-IPO Valuation. After its initial public offering in March 2026, Swarmer's stock experienced a highly speculative surge, with its share price rising from an IPO price of $5.00 to exceed $80 by early June 2026. This created an extremely high valuation, exemplified by a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 31,000x in early June, far detached from the company's minimal current revenues. The subsequent decline in the stock price since late March, including a significant drop from its June highs, indicates a market correction to a more realistic valuation.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SWMR-12.9% 
Market (SPY)14.9%3.5%
Sector (XLK)35.6%14.6%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SWMR  
Market (SPY)9.9%-8.0%
Sector (XLK)25.4%3.7%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SWMR  
Market (SPY)22.0%-8.0%
Sector (XLK)43.0%3.7%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SWMR  
Market (SPY)74.6%-8.0%
Sector (XLK)111.3%3.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
SWMR Return-----49%49%
Peers Return1%4%24%285%47%-14%533%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SWMR Win Rate-----60% 
Peers Win Rate38%55%57%58%55%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SWMR Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-38%-27%-27%-36%-50% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, NOC, LMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SWMR has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

EventXLKS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven65 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-17.0%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven92 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-10.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven15 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven246 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-31.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven100 days105 days

Compare to AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, NOC, LMT

In The Past

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

SWMR has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

EventXLKS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven65 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven246 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-31.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven78 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven100 days105 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-51.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven106.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven797 days1085 days

Compare to AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, NOC, LMT

In The Past

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Swarmer (SWMR)

Swarmer (SWMR) is a defense technology company specializing in software for autonomous warfare. The company develops and licenses its proprietary Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS), which enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms at significant scale. Positioning itself as a critical software layer, Swarmer’s vendor-agnostic platform is designed to integrate with drones from any manufacturer, providing essential interoperability in an increasingly fragmented hardware market.

Swarmer primarily serves global military forces, targeting the rapidly expanding military drone market. A core competitive advantage stems from its combat-proven experience; the Trident OS has been continuously deployed in Ukraine since 2023, executing over 100,000 combat missions. This operational deployment generates a unique and comprehensive dataset, fostering rapid capability enhancements and delivering an unmatched pace of innovation that traditional defense contractors cannot replicate.

The company operates on a per-unit software licensing model, which offers highly attractive unit economics with expanding gross margins as market volume increases. Swarmer is actively pursuing a multi-domain expansion strategy, extending its software capabilities from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to include unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and planned integration with missiles, thereby significantly broadening its addressable market and capturing value across the full spectrum of unmanned military systems.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Swarmer:

  • Swarmer is like the Android operating system for military drones, making them smart and interoperable across different hardware manufacturers.
  • Swarmer is the 'Intel Inside' for military drone swarms, providing the embedded operating system that powers their autonomous capabilities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The major product offered by Swarmer (SWMR) is:

  • Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS): A combat-proven software operating system that enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms and other unmanned systems across air, ground, and maritime domains.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Swarmer (SWMR) primarily sells to other companies. Its major customers are:

  • Drone Manufacturers: Swarmer licenses its Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS) to drone manufacturers. The company positions itself as a strategic partner to these manufacturers, helping them integrate autonomous software to differentiate their products and defend margins in a competitive market. The background information states: "By designing our software to integrate with drones from any manufacturer, we partner with leading manufacturers" and "As drone manufacturers face margin compression, we believe our software becomes an increasingly critical value differentiator, positioning us as a strategic partner able to help manufacturers defend margins and win competitive procurements."

    While the company states it partners with "leading manufacturers," the provided background information does not list the specific names or symbols of these customer companies.

The ultimate end-users of the drones equipped with Swarmer's software are military forces, as indicated by its "combat-proven software that enables military forces to deploy and coordinate drone swarms at significant scale" and its continuous operational deployment in Ukraine.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Serhii Kupriienko, Chief Executive Officer (Global) and Director

Serhii Kupriienko is a co-founder of Swarmer. He previously served as an AI and computer vision leader at Ring and Squad Ukraine. He holds a Master's in Computer Science and an MBA from Stanford GSB.

Alexander Fink, Chief Executive Officer (U.S.), President, and Director

Alexander Fink, also a co-founder of Swarmer, has founded other AI and defense-related ventures. He previously served as CEO of Otherweb and Panopteo, and held prior roles at Ambarella and Zoran. He holds a B.A. from Technion and an MBA from UMass Amherst.

Brooks Ensign, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Brooks Ensign has held senior finance roles as Vice President Controller at Aptose and Global Corporate Controller at Silvaco. He is a U.S. Navy veteran and holds an MBA and BA from Harvard.

Jennifer DeTrani, Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel, and Secretary

Jennifer DeTrani previously served as Chief Legal and Corporate Affairs Officer at Nisos and was co-founder and General Counsel at Wickr. Earlier in her career, she was an Assistant U.S. Attorney with the U.S. Department of Justice. She holds a J.D. from the University of Michigan.

Erik Prince, Non-Executive Chairman

Erik Prince is the founder of Blackwater and is known as a private equity investor with extensive global defense and logistics experience. He also has a background as a U.S. Navy SEAL.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The primary key risk to Swarmer's business is its over-reliance on the continuous combat deployment in Ukraine since 2023 for its operational dataset and competitive advantage.

The company explicitly states that this deployment has generated a "key strategic asset: a comprehensive operational dataset" and enables "compressed iteration cycles in active combat" that are unachievable by competitors. If the conflict in Ukraine were to significantly de-escalate, end, or change in a way that reduces Swarmer's continuous operational access, its ability to gather critical data, validate performance, and maintain its claimed competitive advantages in autonomous capability maturity and rapid innovation velocity would be severely impacted.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Swarmer's addressable market is the global military drone market, which is projected to exceed 12% compound annual growth through 2030. Their roadmap targets coordination of thousands of systems across air, ground, and maritime environments, which is expected to significantly expand their addressable market opportunity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Expansion into New Military Domains: Swarmer's systematic expansion from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to multi-domain operations, including unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and planned integration with missiles and guidance kits, is expected to significantly broaden its addressable market and drive future revenue growth by addressing the full spectrum of unmanned systems requirements.
  • Increased Market Penetration and Adoption driven by Combat-Proven Software and Data Advantage: The continuous combat deployment of Swarmer's Trident Embedded Drone Operating System (Trident OS) in Ukraine since 2023, coupled with the generation of a comprehensive operational dataset and rapid capability enhancement cycles, provides a significant competitive advantage. This combat-proven experience and data superiority are expected to lead to broader deployment and increased licensing of its software across military forces.
  • Capitalizing on Global Military Drone Market Growth via a Vendor-Agnostic Platform: Swarmer is strategically positioned to capture value from the projected global military drone market growth, which is expected to exceed 12% compound annual growth through 2030. Its vendor-agnostic architecture allows integration with drones from any manufacturer, enabling the company to benefit from the entire market's expansion and secure strategic partnerships, rather than being limited by proprietary hardware platforms.
  • Scalable Per-Unit Software Licensing Model: The company's business model, based on per-unit software licensing fees, is designed for attractive unit economics. As the market scales and the volume of licensed units increases, the stable per-unit fees combined with incremental costs approaching zero for additional licenses are expected to drive substantial revenue growth and expanding gross margins.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • Swarmer completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on March 17, 2026, offering 3,000,000 shares of common stock at $5.00 per share and raising approximately $15 million in gross proceeds.
  • The underwriters were granted a 30-day option to purchase an additional 450,000 shares of common stock at the IPO price.

Inbound Investments

  • Swarmer raised a $2.7 million seed round in September 2024.
  • The company secured a $15 million Series A funding round in September 2025, led by Broadband Capital Investments.

Capital Expenditures

  • For the six months ended December 2025, Swarmer reported capital expenditures of approximately $246,990, primarily allocated to the purchase of property, plant, and equipment.
  • Net proceeds from the IPO are intended for ongoing operations, including expanding capabilities and product offerings, hiring, integrating with drone manufacturers' hardware, and general corporate purposes.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SWMRAVAVKTOSRCATNOCLMTMedian
NameSwarmer AeroViro.Kratos D.Red Cat Northrop.Lockheed. 
Mkt Price41.12150.3547.897.83525.28514.3699.12
Mkt Cap0.77.58.50.974.6118.38.0
Rev LTM-1,6101,4155542,36775,1061,610
Op Inc LTM--9528-814,6967,42228
FCF LTM--246-133-1183,3055,662-118
FCF 3Y Avg--91-49-582,4055,621-49
CFO LTM--174-40-1054,6667,368-40
CFO 3Y Avg--5224-534,0227,36824

Growth & Margins

SWMRAVAVKTOSRCATNOCLMTMedian
NameSwarmer AeroViro.Kratos D.Red Cat Northrop.Lockheed. 
Rev Chg LTM-116.9%21.8%345.5%5.0%4.6%21.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-55.7%15.0%167.4%4.6%4.3%15.0%
Rev Chg Q-143.4%22.6%849.1%4.4%0.3%22.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-17.5%5.1%34.0%1.0%0.1%5.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM--388.7%-5.5%-138.8%21.3%0.9%-5.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-58,379.5%145.2%-66.5%13.2%-4.0%13.2%
Op Mgn LTM--5.9%2.0%-149.2%11.1%9.9%2.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.2%2.6%-203.8%9.1%10.8%2.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-0.1%14.3%0.9%-0.4%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM--10.8%-2.8%-192.7%11.0%9.8%-2.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--2.8%2.4%-212.3%9.8%10.2%2.4%
FCF/Rev LTM--15.3%-9.4%-216.8%7.8%7.5%-9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--6.3%-3.5%-224.0%5.8%7.8%-3.5%

Valuation

SWMRAVAVKTOSRCATNOCLMTMedian
NameSwarmer AeroViro.Kratos D.Red Cat Northrop.Lockheed. 
Mkt Cap0.77.58.50.974.6118.38.0
P/S-4.66.017.31.81.64.6
P/Op Inc--78.7305.7-11.615.915.915.9
P/EBIT--68.0194.2-11.612.117.412.1
P/E--24.0288.0-12.516.324.716.3
P/CFO--42.9-210.1-9.016.016.0-9.0
Total Yield--4.2%0.3%-8.0%7.9%6.7%0.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%2.7%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--1.1%-0.3%-17.5%3.4%5.0%-0.3%
D/E0.00.10.00.00.20.20.1
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.2-0.10.20.2-0.0

Returns

SWMRAVAVKTOSRCATNOCLMTMedian
NameSwarmer AeroViro.Kratos D.Red Cat Northrop.Lockheed. 
1M Rtn-8.9%-0.6%-6.3%-26.3%3.5%4.2%-3.5%
3M Rtn-0.2%-28.4%-30.2%-42.2%-10.5%-6.8%-19.5%
6M Rtn32.6%-53.0%-60.3%-49.8%-20.3%-11.2%-35.1%
12M Rtn32.6%-42.7%-13.6%-12.8%-5.4%28.6%-9.1%
3Y Rtn32.6%55.9%233.5%631.8%21.8%22.6%44.2%
1M Excs Rtn-9.3%-1.0%-6.6%-26.7%3.2%3.9%-3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-10.4%-34.6%-36.3%-43.9%-19.8%-15.6%-27.2%
6M Excs Rtn22.3%-64.9%-73.1%-56.0%-29.8%-20.0%-42.9%
12M Excs Rtn13.7%-63.7%-37.5%-35.8%-15.4%-4.2%-25.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.2%-8.9%193.5%521.0%-44.3%-47.2%-21.0%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single Segment00
Total00


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single Segment-9-2
Total-9-2


Price Behavior

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SWMR Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.161.820.450.81-0.490.10
Up Beta-3.53-6.07-3.965.71-1.561.38
Down Beta7.097.265.8411.537.335.55
Up Capture36%224%63%-35%-15%-1%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days71726303030
Down Capture257%147%125%-252%-167%-90%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days142437424242

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SWMR
SWMR32.8%236.9%1.35-
Sector ETF (XLK)38.8%24.7%1.273.7%
Equity (SPY)20.0%12.6%1.16-8.0%
Gold (GLD)21.2%28.1%0.67-5.8%
Commodities (DBC)33.0%19.1%1.3635.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.9%14.0%0.70-0.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%42.9%-1.21-23.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SWMR
SWMR5.8%236.9%1.35-
Sector ETF (XLK)19.6%25.6%0.683.7%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.58-8.0%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.76-5.8%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.3735.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.04-0.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.2%53.5%0.46-23.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SWMR
SWMR2.9%236.9%1.35-
Sector ETF (XLK)24.5%24.8%0.893.7%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.72-8.0%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.58-5.8%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%17.9%0.3135.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.20-0.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.5%66.2%0.99-23.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 615202665.2%
Average Daily Volume0.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity16.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/16/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/2026-2.5%3.6%49.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive011
# Negative100
Median Positive 3.6%49.2%
Median Negative-2.5%  
Max Positive 3.6%49.2%
Max Negative-2.5%  
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/2026-2.5%3.6%49.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive011
# Negative100
Median Positive 3.6%49.2%
Median Negative-2.5%  
Max Positive 3.6%49.2%
Max Negative-2.5%  

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/17/2026424B4
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/17/2026424B4
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026