Savers Value Village (SVV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.39 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Savers Value Village (SVV)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.39Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 63% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.55 | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% | ||
| Key risksSVV key risks include [1] a high level of leverage with indicators of potential financial distress and [2] a fundamental dependence on securing a consistent supply of goods from its local charity partners. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Circular Fashion, Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.55 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 63% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 81% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Key risksSVV key risks include [1] a high level of leverage with indicators of potential financial distress and [2] a fundamental dependence on securing a consistent supply of goods from its local charity partners. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SVV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Savers Value Village (SVV) stock experienced a decline of 22.2% due to several key factors.
1. Savers Value Village significantly lowered its full-year net income guidance for 2025. The company's updated outlook reduced net income guidance to between $17 million and $21 million, a substantial decrease from the earlier projection of $47 million to $58 million. This revision signaled weaker profitability expectations to investors.
2. The company reported a net loss in the third quarter of 2025. Savers Value Village announced a net loss of $14.0 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, for the thirteen weeks ended September 27, 2025. This net loss contributed to negative investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SVV Return | � | � | � | � | -41% | -9% | � |
| Peers Return | 17% | 12% | -3% | -1% | -1% | 40% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SVV Win Rate | � | � | � | 67% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 48% | 53% | 48% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SVV Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -51% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -14% | -32% | -30% | -24% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, BURL, DG, DLTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SVV has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SVV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Savers Value Village
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 146.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.1 |
| Rev LTM | 20,494 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,692 |
| FCF LTM | 1,588 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,261 |
| CFO LTM | 2,582 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,620 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.1 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.6 |
| P/E | 23.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail | 780 | 747 | 644 | 412 |
| Canada Retail | 606 | 583 | 482 | 364 |
| Other profit | 114 | 107 | 78 | 58 |
| Total | 1,500 | 1,437 | 1,204 | 834 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail | 198 | 182 | 167 | 45 |
| Canada Retail | 190 | 174 | 148 | 101 |
| Other profit | 40 | 33 | 16 | 18 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -61 | -56 | -47 | -59 |
| General corporate expenses | -225 | -127 | -102 | -97 |
| Total | 142 | 206 | 182 | 7 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -30.4% | -40.3% | -33.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | 10.2% | 8.6% | 16.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 18.2% | 20.2% | 2.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -19.4% | -29.8% | -37.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -7.9% | -13.9% | -9.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | -9.3% | -8.2% | -9.5% |
| 3/7/2024 | -7.5% | -13.6% | -11.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | -11.9% | -12.0% | 16.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 10.2% | 8.6% | 16.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.6% | -13.8% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 20.2% | 16.1% |
| Max Negative | -30.4% | -40.3% | -37.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 6302023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | S-1/A 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | S-1/A 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 7142022 | S-1/A 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5052022 | S-1/A 1/1/2022 |
| 12312020 | 2072022 | S-1/A 1/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |