Tearsheet

Dollar Tree (DLTR)


Market Price (3/14/2026): $106.91 | Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Dollar Tree (DLTR)


Market Price (3/14/2026): $106.91
Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 156%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
  
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.5%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 156%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.5%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -94%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock has lost about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions signaled caution. In late February 2026, Citigroup downgraded Dollar Tree's stock from "Buy" to "Neutral" with a price target of $132. Earlier in February, BMO Capital downgraded the stock from "Market Perform" to "Underperform" and significantly lowered its price target from $110 to $95. Additionally, Evercore ISI Group reduced its price target from $165 to $160 on February 3, 2026.

2. Anticipated weak fourth-quarter revenue and conservative fiscal year 2026 guidance contributed to investor uncertainty. Analysts projected a notable decline in Dollar Tree's top line for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $5.5 billion, indicating a 33.8% drop from the prior-year quarter's reported figure. Concerns about potential "soft" fiscal year 2026 guidance, possibly influenced by a volatile consumer environment, also pressured the stock and the broader discount retail sector.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.0% change in DLTR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253132026Change
Stock Price ($)110.81107.46-3.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)18,55118,9612.2%
P/S Multiple1.21.2-6.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2072032.0%
Cumulative Contribution-3.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DLTR-3.0% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%22.2%
Sector (XLP)6.8%37.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.6% change in DLTR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253132026Change
Stock Price ($)109.17107.46-1.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)18,04918,9615.1%
P/S Multiple1.31.2-10.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2142035.1%
Cumulative Contribution-1.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DLTR-1.6% 
Market (SPY)3.0%27.7%
Sector (XLP)5.6%35.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 47.5% change in DLTR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 156.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820253132026Change
Stock Price ($)72.86107.4647.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7,39618,961156.4%
P/S Multiple2.11.2-45.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2152035.8%
Cumulative Contribution47.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DLTR47.5% 
Market (SPY)12.4%29.3%
Sector (XLP)4.0%32.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -26.0% change in DLTR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233132026Change
Stock Price ($)145.28107.46-26.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)27,69218,961-31.5%
P/S Multiple1.21.2-1.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2222039.3%
Cumulative Contribution-26.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
DLTR-26.0% 
Market (SPY)73.4%23.6%
Sector (XLP)26.5%30.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
DLTR Return30%1%0%-47%64%-8%5%
Peers Return24%-12%7%3%31%15%81%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DLTR Win Rate67%50%58%25%67%33% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%58%50%60%73% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DLTR Max Drawdown-22%-10%-27%-57%-17%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-10%-30%-22%-26%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DG, WMT, TGT, FIVE, COST. See DLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDLTRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven71 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven369 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven504 days1,480 days

Compare to DG, WMT, TGT, FIVE, COST

In The Past

Dollar Tree's stock fell -40.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.5% loss requires a 68.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few analogies for Dollar Tree:

  • Imagine a store like Five Below, but focused on everyday essentials and party supplies, with everything fixed at $1.25.
  • It also operates a chain of neighborhood discount stores, similar to a smaller, more value-focused Walmart or Target.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Consumable Goods: A wide assortment of everyday essentials including food, beverages, health and personal care items, household chemicals, and pet supplies.
  • General Merchandise: A diverse range of non-consumable items such as toys, durable housewares, home décor, gifts, stationery, party goods, and arts & crafts supplies.
  • Apparel and Accessories: Clothing, fashion accessories, and footwear offered primarily through the Family Dollar segment.
  • Seasonal and Holiday Products: Merchandise specific to holidays and seasons, including items for Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day.
  • Electronics and Communication: Personal electronics, including prepaid cellular phones and related services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Dollar Tree (DLTR) sells primarily to individuals through its retail stores. Its major customer categories include:

  1. Budget-Conscious Consumers: These are individuals and families who prioritize affordability and seek to maximize their purchasing power on everyday essentials, groceries, health and personal care products, and household items. The fixed low price point of $1.25 at Dollar Tree and the general discount nature of Family Dollar stores directly cater to this segment.
  2. Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Customers who value accessibility and often make quick trips to Dollar Tree or Family Dollar stores for immediate needs, such as snacks, beverages, small household items, or specific party and seasonal supplies, due to the stores' widespread local presence and convenient locations.
  3. Value Seekers & Opportunistic Buyers: This category includes shoppers who are drawn to the stores for the opportunity to find various goods at low prices. They might be looking for specific craft supplies, seasonal decorations, party goods, or simply browsing for unexpected deals and unique items that offer high perceived value for their cost.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence of ultra-low-cost online retailers (e.g., Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop) poses a clear emerging threat. These platforms leverage direct-from-manufacturer sourcing and digital distribution to offer a wide array of non-consumable goods at extremely low price points, often competing with or undercutting the pricing of dollar stores. This model directly challenges the value proposition and market share of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, particularly for discretionary items such as toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, softlines, arts and crafts, home décor, apparel, electronics, and seasonal merchandise.

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Better Bets vs. Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to DLTR.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRBR_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02272026BRBRBellRing BrandsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.0%0.0%0.0%
STZ_2132026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02132026STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%0.0%
KMB_2132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202132026KMBKimberly-ClarkInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-1.7%
AVO_2062026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202062026AVOMission ProduceInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
1.1%1.1%-2.7%
CALM_1022026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01022026CALMCal-Maine FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%-7.7%
DLTR_4302025_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K04302025DLTRDollar TreeInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
23.9%54.7%-0.6%
DLTR_12312023_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212312023DLTRDollar TreeInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-24.8%-47.4%-56.9%
DLTR_3312023_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203312023DLTRDollar TreeInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.8%-7.2%-27.8%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DLTRDGWMTTGTFIVECOSTMedian
NameDollar T.Dollar G.Walmart Target Five Bel.Costco W. 
Mkt Price107.46131.84126.52117.34210.361,008.43129.18
Mkt Cap21.829.01,008.953.211.6447.741.1
Rev LTM18,96142,118703,061105,2424,427280,39173,680
Op Inc LTM1,4921,89228,9765,20439310,6503,548
FCF LTM1,2122,33915,2633,0093239,0032,674
FCF 3Y Avg1,0411,48114,9843,7321887,6072,606
CFO LTM2,3763,62040,9776,77450914,7635,197
CFO 3Y Avg2,5762,98137,5887,64647912,6075,314

Growth & Margins

DLTRDGWMTTGTFIVECOSTMedian
NameDollar T.Dollar G.Walmart Target Five Bel.Costco W. 
Rev Chg LTM156.4%4.9%4.3%-2.2%15.8%8.3%6.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.3%5.1%5.4%-1.1%14.5%6.7%6.0%
Rev Chg Q9.4%4.6%5.8%-1.6%23.1%8.3%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%1.1%1.4%-0.4%4.6%1.9%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM7.9%4.5%4.1%4.9%8.9%3.8%4.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.2%5.5%4.1%5.1%9.4%3.6%5.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.2%-0.1%-0.2%0.6%0.0%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM12.5%8.6%5.8%6.4%11.5%5.3%7.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.5%7.3%5.6%7.2%12.5%4.8%7.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.4%5.6%2.2%2.9%7.3%3.2%4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.1%3.6%2.2%3.5%4.7%2.9%3.6%

Valuation

DLTRDGWMTTGTFIVECOSTMedian
NameDollar T.Dollar G.Walmart Target Five Bel.Costco W. 
Mkt Cap21.829.01,008.953.211.6447.741.1
P/S1.20.71.40.52.61.61.3
P/EBIT13.815.330.310.029.539.822.4
P/E-7.522.744.014.137.753.930.2
P/CFO9.28.024.67.922.830.316.0
Total Yield-13.4%5.3%3.0%10.9%2.7%2.1%2.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.7%3.9%0.0%0.2%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%6.5%2.3%6.5%2.0%2.2%3.6%
D/E0.40.60.10.40.20.00.3
Net D/E0.30.50.10.30.1-0.00.2

Returns

DLTRDGWMTTGTFIVECOSTMedian
NameDollar T.Dollar G.Walmart Target Five Bel.Costco W. 
1M Rtn-14.0%-10.4%-1.7%2.4%2.1%3.1%0.2%
3M Rtn-17.3%-0.6%8.4%22.1%14.7%14.2%11.3%
6M Rtn10.3%27.6%22.5%33.4%50.4%4.5%25.0%
12M Rtn62.8%68.5%51.2%17.4%191.2%13.8%57.0%
3Y Rtn-24.1%-35.0%185.1%-17.4%6.3%117.9%-5.6%
1M Excs Rtn-11.6%-8.0%0.6%4.8%4.4%5.5%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-11.9%6.8%13.4%26.9%20.4%17.1%15.2%
6M Excs Rtn5.3%23.5%20.6%28.3%41.5%2.0%22.1%
12M Excs Rtn52.5%59.0%28.9%-6.6%164.6%-11.6%40.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-93.9%-105.3%115.3%-89.8%-65.0%46.4%-77.4%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family Dollar11,03712,56211,87211,56211,485
Dollar Tree10,3169,9159,3588,6697,694
Corporate, support and Other671545492464396
Total22,02423,02221,72220,69619,575


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$107.46 
Market Cap ($ Bil)21.8 
First Trading Date03/09/1995 
Distance from 52W High-23.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$125.61$110.26
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-14.5%-2.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility34.7%42.1%
Downside Capture88.0350.24
Upside Capture-18.0190.43
Correlation (SPY)16.9%27.3%
DLTR Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.500.640.720.870.640.61
Up Beta1.640.25-0.830.840.410.45
Down Beta0.150.850.971.080.960.83
Up Capture74%72%147%88%87%21%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days11223164134373
Down Capture-24%55%60%65%54%88%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days10193060116377

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DLTR
DLTR71.9%42.6%1.39-
Sector ETF (XLP)8.4%13.9%0.3430.9%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8127.5%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.05-2.9%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.8915.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1927.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.0%44.2%-0.2410.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DLTR
DLTR-0.3%38.9%0.10-
Sector ETF (XLP)8.1%13.1%0.4034.9%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6130.0%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.142.5%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4711.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1627.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.4%56.7%0.3310.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with DLTR
DLTR3.1%36.3%0.19-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.8%14.7%0.4036.7%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7035.6%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.772.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4012.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2331.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.5%66.8%1.0711.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 21520265.4%
Average Daily Volume2.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity203.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/3/20253.6%9.8%18.0%
9/3/2025-8.4%-13.5%-18.9%
6/4/2025-8.4%-3.7%7.8%
3/26/20253.1%12.2%21.0%
12/4/20241.9%0.4%1.2%
9/4/2024-22.2%-19.9%-14.9%
6/5/2024-4.9%-8.9%-11.3%
3/13/2024-14.2%-14.4%-13.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111111
# Negative131313
Median Positive3.6%8.7%14.8%
Median Negative-8.4%-12.5%-14.2%
Max Positive21.9%19.1%22.6%
Max Negative-22.2%-19.9%-26.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
10/31/202512/03/202510-Q
07/31/202509/03/202510-Q
04/30/202506/04/202510-Q
01/31/202503/26/202510-K
10/31/202412/04/202410-Q
07/31/202409/04/202410-Q
04/30/202406/05/202410-Q
01/31/202403/20/202410-K
10/31/202311/29/202310-Q
07/31/202308/24/202310-Q
04/30/202305/25/202310-Q
01/31/202303/10/202310-K
10/31/202211/22/202210-Q
07/31/202208/25/202210-Q
04/30/202205/26/202210-Q
01/31/202203/15/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Beebe, Brent AChief Merchandising OfficerDirectSell12102025124.652,200274,2301,712,691Form
2Aflatooni, RobertChief Information OfficerDirectSell1021202594.701,260119,3282,026,876Form
3Glendinning, StewartChief Financial OfficerDirectBuy909202599.5050049,7504,960,374Form
4Glendinning, StewartChief Financial OfficerDirectBuy909202597.463,000292,3805,151,053Form
5Stahl, Stephanie DirectSell9082025100.321,185118,878410,206Form