Tearsheet

Constellation Brands (STZ)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $147.82 | Market Cap: $26.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners

Constellation Brands (STZ)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $147.82
Market Cap: $26.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Distillers & Vintners

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

STZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Constellation Brands (STZ) stock moved in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025: 1. 1. Fiscal 2026 Guidance Cut: In early September 2025, Constellation Brands significantly reduced its fiscal 2026 guidance across the board. The company lowered its outlook for beer net sales to a decline of 2% to 4% (from an earlier forecast of flat to 3% growth) and for overall organic net sales to a decrease of 4% to 6%. This reduction also included a cut in its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast from a range of $12.60-$12.90 to $11.30-$11.60. This news alone caused the stock to fall by 17% in September. 2. 2. Weak Consumer Demand and Macroeconomic Headwinds: The primary reason cited for the revised guidance was a "challenging macroeconomic environment" and "dampened consumer demand." Specifically, the company noted a more pronounced decline in purchases of high-end beer among Hispanic consumers. These persistent pressures on consumer spending continued to weigh on the stock's performance. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
STZ Return17%16%-6%6%-7%-31%-13%
Peers Return35%18%-6%2%-28%-23%-16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
STZ Win Rate67%58%58%58%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate52%50%56%52%35%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
STZ Max Drawdown-44%-4%-15%-10%-8%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-15%-21%-13%-36%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TAP, SAM, MGPI, WVVI. See STZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSTZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven195 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven255 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven763 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1339 days1480 days

Compare to TAP, SAM, HLF, AGCC, STZ


In The Past

Constellation Brands's stock fell -20.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -20.1% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Constellation Brands (STZ)

Better Bets than Constellation Brands (STZ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to STZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-11.1%-11.1%-23.0%
STZ_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-16.4%-27.6%
STZ_4302020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302020STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%48.3%-5.2%
STZ_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%19.8%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-11.1%-11.1%-23.0%
STZ_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-16.4%-27.6%
STZ_4302020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302020STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%48.3%-5.2%
STZ_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%19.8%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Constellation Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

STZTAPSAMMGPIWVVIMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.MGP Ingr.Willamet. 
Mkt Price147.4247.60203.0326.012.9447.60
Mkt Cap25.99.42.20.60.02.2
Rev LTM9,62411,2141,982579371,982
Op Inc LTM3,0421,661158110-1158
FCF LTM1,8481,09321262-3212
FCF 3Y Avg1,6771,20217437-5174
CFO LTM2,7691,738272121-3272
CFO 3Y Avg2,8411,87224098-2240

Growth & Margins

STZTAPSAMMGPIWVVIMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.MGP Ingr.Willamet. 
Rev Chg LTM-5.6%-4.0%-1.1%-21.5%-4.8%-4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.7%1.7%-0.1%-7.9%6.1%0.7%
Rev Chg Q-15.0%-2.3%-11.2%-18.9%-10.9%-11.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.4%-0.6%-3.3%-5.0%-2.7%-3.3%
Op Mgn LTM31.6%14.8%8.0%18.9%-2.4%14.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg31.7%14.6%7.3%20.4%-1.7%14.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.2%-1.0%-1.5%-2.9%-1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM28.8%15.5%13.7%20.9%-6.8%15.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.8%16.3%11.9%14.6%-6.2%14.6%
FCF/Rev LTM19.2%9.8%10.7%10.7%-8.8%10.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.0%10.5%8.7%5.8%-13.8%8.7%

Valuation

STZTAPSAMMGPIWVVIMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.MGP Ingr.Willamet. 
Mkt Cap25.99.42.20.60.02.2
P/S2.50.81.20.90.50.9
P/EBIT11.25.514.544.4-12.9
P/E19.4-4.324.9-34.2-14.3-4.3
P/CFO8.65.28.44.3-7.05.2
Total Yield6.7%-19.1%4.0%-2.4%-7.0%-2.4%
Dividend Yield1.5%4.2%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%10.6%5.7%4.9%-5.3%
D/E0.40.70.00.5-0.5
Net D/E0.40.6-0.10.5-0.5

Returns

STZTAPSAMMGPIWVVIMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.MGP Ingr.Willamet. 
1M Rtn14.1%3.6%2.4%3.9%10.1%3.9%
3M Rtn6.5%-0.7%-6.3%-6.6%-41.2%-6.3%
6M Rtn-9.4%-4.0%-2.6%-10.3%-48.9%-9.4%
12M Rtn-36.9%-19.2%-35.5%-41.5%-10.7%-35.5%
3Y Rtn-33.8%1.2%-41.2%-76.0%-51.4%-41.2%
1M Excs Rtn13.4%5.0%1.4%-0.2%14.3%5.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.5%-2.6%-8.8%-9.1%-38.4%-8.8%
6M Excs Rtn-23.6%-18.3%-16.9%-24.5%-63.1%-23.6%
12M Excs Rtn-50.8%-33.0%-49.0%-55.9%-22.7%-49.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-110.4%-74.9%-117.0%-150.6%-124.8%-117.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Beer8,1637,4656,7526,0755,616
Wine and Spirits1,7991,9882,0692,5402,728
Corporate Operations and Other0    
Canopy  444379290
Consolidation and Eliminations  -444-379-290
Total9,9629,4538,8218,6158,344


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Beer3,0942,8622,7032,4942,248
Wine and Spirits399453471622708
Comparable Adjustments-76-194-604-97-578
Corporate Operations and Other-248-278-238-229-224
Canopy  -630-1,496-686
Consolidation and Eliminations  6301,496686
Total3,1702,8432,3322,7912,154


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,511,595
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.7%
Average Daily Volume2,158,261
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.87
Basic Shares Quantity175,821,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/6/20251.0%2.0%-6.1%
7/1/20254.5%3.4%0.4%
4/9/20250.7%-0.2%4.2%
1/10/2025-17.1%-15.8%-24.3%
10/3/2024-4.7%-6.0%-9.1%
7/3/2024-3.3%-2.3%-5.2%
4/11/20241.3%-2.9%-1.2%
1/5/20242.1%6.2%2.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121114
# Negative121310
Median Positive1.8%3.4%3.3%
Median Negative-3.3%-2.9%-5.7%
Max Positive6.2%26.7%25.4%
Max Negative-17.1%-15.8%-24.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251007202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025702202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025423202510-K 2/28/2025
11302024110202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241003202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024703202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024423202410-K 2/29/2024
11302023105202410-Q 11/30/2023
83120231005202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023420202310-K 2/28/2023
11302022105202310-Q 11/30/2022
83120221006202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022630202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022421202210-K 2/28/2022
11302021106202210-Q 11/30/2021