Tearsheet

Toast (TOST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.18 | Market Cap: $20.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Toast (TOST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.18
Market Cap: $20.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TOST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -22% stock movement for Toast (TOST) from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025:

1. Significant Stock Decline and Underperformance in September 2025: Leading up to September 30, 2025, Toast's shares experienced a substantial decline of 17.67% within the preceding month. This downturn occurred while the broader Computer and Technology sector gained 7.63% and the S&P 500 saw a 3.15% increase, indicating specific negative pressures or sentiment affecting Toast that diverged from general market trends.

2. Downward Revision of Earnings Estimates: In the month leading up to October 30, 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toast's earnings per share (EPS) was revised downward by 5.12%. Such revisions often signal increasing concerns among analysts about a company's future profitability, which can negatively impact investor confidence and stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TOST Return---48%1%100%-7%-3%
Peers Return-5%7%-2%3%2%22%27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TOST Win Rate-33%33%50%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate38%50%38%45%43%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TOST Max Drawdown---63%-23%-11%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-9%-15%-10%-10%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CACI, MMS, WU, CSGS, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven414.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to CACI, MMS, WU, CSGS, CHOW


In The Past

Toast's stock fell -80.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -80.6% loss requires a 414.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Toast (TOST)

Better Bets than Toast (TOST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TOST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.9%1.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.7%3.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%-0.1%
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Toast

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TOSTCACIMMSWUCSGSCHOWMedian
NameToast CACI Int.Maximus Western .CSG Syst.ChowChow. 
Mkt Price35.17592.8884.869.0577.429.8056.30
Mkt Cap20.613.04.82.92.1-4.8
Rev LTM5,8588,8595,4294,1001,217-5,429
Op Inc LTM247797517750151-517
FCF LTM564612-144403162-403
FCF 3Y Avg267420150406117-267
CFO LTM614683-56542179-542
CFO 3Y Avg314486243552139-314

Growth & Margins

TOSTCACIMMSWUCSGSCHOWMedian
NameToast CACI Int.Maximus Western .CSG Syst.ChowChow. 
Rev Chg LTM25.8%12.6%3.4%-2.5%3.3%-3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg33.6%11.9%6.0%-4.2%4.3%-6.0%
Rev Chg Q25.1%11.2%2.5%-0.3%2.9%-2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%2.7%0.6%-0.1%0.7%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM4.2%9.0%9.5%18.3%12.4%-9.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.9%8.7%8.3%17.8%12.0%-8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.1%0.4%0.9%0.0%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM10.5%7.7%-1.0%13.2%14.7%-10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.9%6.0%4.8%13.0%11.7%-6.0%
FCF/Rev LTM9.6%6.9%-2.6%9.8%13.3%-9.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%5.2%3.0%9.6%9.8%-5.2%

Valuation

TOSTCACIMMSWUCSGSCHOWMedian
NameToast CACI Int.Maximus Western .CSG Syst.ChowChow. 
Mkt Cap20.613.04.82.92.1-4.8
P/S3.61.20.70.61.5-1.2
P/EBIT86.513.87.73.412.9-12.9
P/E78.221.712.63.321.3-21.3
P/CFO34.816.1-70.84.79.9-9.9
Total Yield1.3%4.6%9.7%42.2%6.2%-6.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.8%12.2%1.5%-1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%4.2%2.6%11.3%7.4%-4.2%
D/E0.00.30.41.00.3-0.3
Net D/E-0.10.30.4-0.10.2-0.2

Returns

TOSTCACIMMSWUCSGSCHOWMedian
NameToast CACI Int.Maximus Western .CSG Syst.ChowChow. 
1M Rtn-1.5%5.1%2.1%-0.5%-1.1%11.4%0.8%
3M Rtn-17.1%26.3%-3.8%6.8%19.5%-6.8%
6M Rtn-15.9%39.4%20.5%2.8%23.8%-20.5%
12M Rtn-17.1%30.6%15.6%-8.1%44.4%-15.6%
3Y Rtn95.5%87.9%21.3%-19.2%34.6%-34.6%
1M Excs Rtn-1.5%5.1%2.1%-0.5%-1.1%11.4%0.8%
3M Excs Rtn-19.8%23.5%-9.1%1.4%15.0%-1.4%
6M Excs Rtn-30.7%24.7%5.8%-11.9%9.1%-5.8%
12M Excs Rtn-32.8%15.4%2.2%-22.7%30.7%-2.2%
3Y Excs Rtn22.6%19.4%-42.5%-90.9%-36.8%--36.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,415,023
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.8%
Average Daily Volume9,763,595
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.60
Basic Shares Quantity585,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Elworthy Brian RGeneral Counsel11052025Sell35.541,05937,6368,139,035Form
1Fredette StephenPresident11052025Sell35.541,73261,55431,994,482Form
2Gomez ElenaPresident, CFO11052025Sell35.542,02171,8245,382,844Form
3Narang AmanCEO11052025Sell35.541,73261,55411,370,312Form
4Vassil JonathanChief Revenue Officer11052025Sell35.541,44251,2472,538,338Form