Toast (TOST)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $26.09 | Market Cap: $15.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Toast (TOST)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $26.09Market Cap: $15.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Key risksTOST key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the volatile restaurant industry, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Key risksTOST key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the volatile restaurant industry, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 5/28/2026
Toast (TOST) stock has lost about 15% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Earnings Reception. Despite reporting strong Q1 2026 revenue of $1.63 billion and raising its full-year guidance for non-GAAP subscription and financial technology gross profit to a range of $2.29–$2.32 billion (21–23% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA to $790–$810 million, Toast's stock experienced a significant downturn following its May 7, 2026 earnings release. This was largely attributed to a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, which missed analysts' consensus expectations of $0.25 by 20.00%. The market's negative reaction to the EPS miss, despite other positive operational metrics like 26% Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth to $2.2 billion, likely contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Challenging Macroeconomic Environment and Restaurant Sector Headwinds. The period since January 2026 was characterized by a broader market shift towards a "risk-off" sentiment, particularly impacting growth stocks like Toast. The S&P 500 concluded Q1 2026 down approximately 4%, with technology stocks facing considerable pressure. Concurrently, the restaurant industry, Toast's primary market, faced significant operational challenges including elevated cost inflation, wage pressure, and a decline in consumer traffic. Reports indicated that 60% of restaurant operators were experiencing deteriorating conditions, and there was a noticeable trend of consumers shifting from dining out to eating at home, further impacting the sector's growth prospects.
Show more
Toast (TOST) stock has lost about 15% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q1 2026 Earnings Reception. Despite reporting strong Q1 2026 revenue of $1.63 billion and raising its full-year guidance for non-GAAP subscription and financial technology gross profit to a range of $2.29–$2.32 billion (21–23% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA to $790–$810 million, Toast's stock experienced a significant downturn following its May 7, 2026 earnings release. This was largely attributed to a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, which missed analysts' consensus expectations of $0.25 by 20.00%. The market's negative reaction to the EPS miss, despite other positive operational metrics like 26% Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth to $2.2 billion, likely contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Challenging Macroeconomic Environment and Restaurant Sector Headwinds. The period since January 2026 was characterized by a broader market shift towards a "risk-off" sentiment, particularly impacting growth stocks like Toast. The S&P 500 concluded Q1 2026 down approximately 4%, with technology stocks facing considerable pressure. Concurrently, the restaurant industry, Toast's primary market, faced significant operational challenges including elevated cost inflation, wage pressure, and a decline in consumer traffic. Reports indicated that 60% of restaurant operators were experiencing deteriorating conditions, and there was a noticeable trend of consumers shifting from dining out to eating at home, further impacting the sector's growth prospects.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.3% change in TOST stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.11 | 26.03 | -16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,858 | 6,446 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 6.4% | 37.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 66.7 | 37.1 | -44.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 585 | 587 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOST | -16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.9% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.0% change in TOST stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.14 | 26.03 | -28.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,530 | 6,446 | 16.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.1% | 6.4% | 57.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 93.6 | 37.1 | -60.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 580 | 587 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOST | -28.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 27.4% | 25.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.8% change in TOST stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -96.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.58 | 26.03 | -26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,960 | 6,446 | 30.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.4% | 6.4% | 1568.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 1,063.7 | 37.1 | -96.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 568 | 587 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOST | -26.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 33.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 83.0% | 25.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.0% change in TOST stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 136.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.20 | 26.03 | 43.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,730 | 6,446 | 136.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.5 | 2.4 | -31.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 519 | 587 | -11.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TOST | 43.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 46.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 158.6% | 38.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TOST Return | -44% | -48% | 1% | 100% | -3% | -30% | -60% |
| Peers Return | -23% | -30% | 45% | 33% | -44% | -32% | -61% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TOST Win Rate | 25% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 58% | 56% | 40% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TOST Max Drawdown | - | -63% | -48% | -21% | -34% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -51% | -32% | -26% | -58% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FISV, LSPD, FOUR, PAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TOST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 912 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Toast's stock fell -24.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TOST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 912 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Toast's stock fell -24.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Toast (TOST)
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based and digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States and Ireland. The company offers Toast Point of Sale (POS), a hardware product; Toast Order & Pay, which allows guests to order and pay from their mobile devices; Toast Flex that is used for on-counter order and pay, as well as used as a server station, guest kiosk, kitchen display system, or order fulfillment station; Toast Go, a handheld POS device that enhances the table turn times through tableside ordering and payment acceptance; and Toast Tap, a card reader. It also provides kitchen display system software that connects the front of the house with the kitchen staff; multi-location management software, which allows customers to manage and standardize their operations and configure menus; xtraCHEF that provides back-office tools; and Toast Flex for Kitchen, a larger format mountable piece of hardware that can be used as a kitchen screen. In addition, the company offers Toast Online Ordering & Toast TakeOut app, a software-based platform that provides restaurants to take off-premises orders directly through their branded website; First-Party Delivery services for restaurants to manage a fleet of drivers, and customize delivery hours, zones, fees, and minimum ticket sizes; Toast Delivery Services, which enables restaurants to utilize a partner network of delivery drivers; and Toast Delivery Partners services. Further, it provides loyalty programs and gift cards; payroll and team management products; business owner policy insurance and restaurant-specific add-ons; payment processing solutions; loans advanced to restaurants; purchase financing; reporting and analytics solutions; Toast Partner Connect that allows customers to discover, select, and connect their restaurant to its partners; and bi-directional APIs. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Toast (TOST):
- Shopify for restaurants
- Square/Block for restaurants
AI Analysis | Feedback
Hardware Products
- Toast Point of Sale (POS): A foundational hardware device for processing orders and payments in restaurants.
- Toast Flex: A versatile terminal used for on-counter ordering, server stations, guest kiosks, or kitchen display systems.
- Toast Go: A handheld POS device designed to facilitate tableside ordering and payment acceptance.
- Toast Tap: A compact card reader for quick and secure payment processing.
- Toast Flex for Kitchen: A larger, mountable hardware unit serving as a dedicated kitchen display screen.
Software & Platform Solutions
- Toast Order & Pay: Software enabling guests to place orders and pay directly using their mobile devices.
- Kitchen Display System Software: Enhances communication and efficiency by connecting front-of-house with kitchen staff.
- Multi-Location Management Software: Tools for standardizing operations, menus, and reporting across multiple restaurant locations.
- xtraCHEF: Back-office software providing advanced inventory and food cost management capabilities.
- Online Ordering & TakeOut App: A platform that allows restaurants to accept and manage off-premises orders directly through their branded channels.
- First-Party & Partner Delivery Services: Solutions for restaurants to manage their own delivery fleet or utilize a network of third-party delivery drivers.
- Loyalty Programs & Gift Cards: Features designed to build customer retention through rewards programs and customizable gift card options.
- Payroll & Team Management: Products streamlining employee scheduling, payroll processing, and overall team administration.
- Reporting & Analytics: Provides comprehensive data and insights into restaurant performance for informed business decisions.
- Toast Partner Connect & APIs: An ecosystem allowing restaurants to discover, integrate, and connect with various third-party applications and services.
Financial Services
- Payment Processing Solutions: Secure and integrated services for handling credit card and other electronic payments.
- Restaurant Lending & Financing: Offers loans and purchase financing options tailored to the specific needs of restaurants.
- Business Insurance: Provides business owner policies and specialized add-ons to meet restaurant-specific insurance requirements.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Toast (TOST)
Toast, Inc. primarily sells its cloud-based and digital technology platform, hardware, and software solutions to other businesses within the restaurant industry. The company's products and services are designed to serve the operational needs of various types of restaurants, including single-location establishments and multi-location chains, throughout the United States and Ireland.
Based on the provided company description, specific names of major restaurant customers are not disclosed.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- DoorDash (DASH)
- Uber Technologies (UBER)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aman Narang - Chief Executive Officer, Co-founder, and Director
Aman Narang co-founded Toast in 2011. He assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2024, having previously served as Co-President since December 2012 and Chief Operating Officer since June 2021. Before co-founding Toast, Mr. Narang worked in product management at Endeca (now Oracle), where he led their mobile business unit and played a key role in developing Endeca's business intelligence and mobile commerce platforms. Endeca was acquired by Oracle in 2012. He holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in Computer Science from MIT.
Elena Gomez - President and Chief Financial Officer
Elena Gomez joined Toast as Chief Financial Officer in May 2021 and was appointed President in February 2025. She oversees global finance, investor relations, corporate development, and business operations. Under her financial leadership, Toast launched its initial public offering in 2021. Prior to Toast, Ms. Gomez served as the CFO of Zendesk, where she contributed to growing its market capitalization to over $15 billion. Her career spans over 30 years, during which she held finance leadership roles at various Fortune 500 companies, including Salesforce, Visa, and Charles Schwab. She holds a B.S. in Business Administration from UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business.
Steve Fredette - President, Co-founder, and Director
Steve Fredette co-founded Toast in 2011 alongside Aman Narang and Jonathan Grimm. He is responsible for leading product and innovation initiatives at Toast. Before Toast, he engaged in several entrepreneurial ventures, including pioneering iPhone app development. He also served as an "intrapreneur" at Endeca (acquired by Oracle in 2012), where he helped lead the Special Operations team and co-founded their mobile commerce business. Mr. Fredette holds a B.S. degree from MIT.
Jonathan Grimm - Chief Technology Officer and Co-Founder
Jonathan Grimm co-founded Toast in 2011 with Steve Fredette and Aman Narang. As Chief Technology Officer, he is instrumental in guiding the company's technological vision and fostering innovation. His professional background includes senior technical roles, such as Advanced Application Development Lead at Oracle and Solution Engineer at Endeca.
Pete Sauerborn - Chief Operating Officer
Pete Sauerborn serves as the Chief Operating Officer for Toast, where he is responsible for managing the core operations of the business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Toast's business include its significant reliance on the restaurant industry, intense competition and pricing pressures within the restaurant technology sector, and its dependence on payment processing revenue coupled with associated regulatory and compliance challenges.
- Reliance on the Restaurant Industry: Toast is almost exclusively focused on the restaurant sector, making its business highly susceptible to the inherent volatility and challenges of this industry. The restaurant industry is characterized by high turnover rates, thin margins, and sensitivity to economic downturns, which can directly impact Toast's customer base and the volume of transactions processed through its platform.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: Toast operates in a highly dynamic and competitive restaurant technology market. It faces competition from both broad financial technology platforms, like Square, that offer restaurant-specific solutions, and numerous specialized point-of-sale (POS) and restaurant management system providers. This competitive landscape can lead to ongoing pricing pressures, making it challenging for Toast to acquire new customers and retain existing ones, particularly as competitors may offer alternative pricing structures.
- Dependence on Payment Processing Revenue and Regulatory/Compliance Risks: A substantial portion of Toast's revenue is derived from payment processing fees, which are inherently transaction-based and can be subject to cyclical fluctuations. The company also navigates a complex regulatory environment, especially concerning financial technology and payment services. Changes to regulations, such as the Visa-Mastercard interchange fee settlements, can directly impact Toast's fee revenue. Furthermore, the mandatory use of Toast's proprietary payment processing for its customers, sometimes at potentially higher rates, presents a risk of customer dissatisfaction and churn if the perceived value does not outweigh the cost.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Toast, Inc. (TOST) operates within several large addressable markets, primarily in the United States, with some international presence. The company's main products and services cater to the restaurant technology sector, encompassing point-of-sale (POS) solutions, online ordering and delivery, and broader restaurant management software, which includes payroll, team management, and payment processing.
Addressable Markets for Toast's Main Products and Services:
- Restaurant Point of Sale (POS) Solutions:
- The U.S. restaurant point of sale solutions market size was valued at USD 5.91 billion in 2022 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2023 to 2030.
- Another estimate for the U.S. restaurant POS solutions market valued it at US$ 3.50 billion in 2021, expecting it to reach US$ 6.44 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2022 to 2030.
- The global Restaurant Point of Sale (POS) Terminals Market size was valued at USD 19.45 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to nearly USD 30.31 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.54% from 2024.
- In terms of locations, Toast's internal total addressable market (TAM), encompassing restaurants, bar & grill, retail, and food-service venues, is estimated to be around 1.4 million potential locations. As of Q3 2025, Toast served approximately 156,000 locations. The U.S. restaurant industry comprises over 1 million restaurant and foodservice outlets.
- Online Ordering & Delivery Services (including First-Party Delivery, Toast Delivery Services, Toast Delivery Partners services, Toast Online Ordering & Toast TakeOut app):
- The U.S. online food delivery market generated a revenue of USD 52.67 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 93.36 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025.
- Another projection estimated the U.S. online food delivery market size at USD 66.73 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 211.58 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 11.0% during the forecast period 2025-2035.
- Globally, the online food delivery services market size is projected at USD 51.40 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 187.11 billion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 15.2%.
- Restaurant Management Software (encompassing POS, kitchen display, multi-location management, back-office tools like xtraCHEF, payroll, team management, reporting & analytics):
- The global restaurant technology market size was valued at USD 16 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 35 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.4% from 2025.
- The North American restaurant technology market was valued at USD 6 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 14 billion in 2035.
- The United States restaurant management market is projected to grow from USD 15.18 billion in 2025 to USD 32.09 billion by 2031, at a 13.29% CAGR.
- The U.S. restaurant management software market generated a revenue of USD 1.56 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.36 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 14.1% from 2025.
- Payment Processing Solutions:
- The global restaurant payments market size reached USD 56.2 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to reach USD 146.3 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 12.5% between 2025 and 2033.
- North America's restaurant payments market accounted for approximately USD 19.6 billion in 2024.
- The European restaurant payments market was USD 11.8 billion in 2024.
- International Markets (Ireland, UK, Canada):
- As of 2024, Toast's estimated total addressable market in Ireland, the UK, and Canada was 280,000 locations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Toast (TOST) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Expansion of Restaurant Locations: Toast is focused on significantly increasing its customer base by adding new restaurant locations across the United States. The company reported serving approximately 140,000 restaurant locations by March 31, 2025, a 25% year-over-year increase, and anticipates a similar pace of net location additions in 2025. This includes a strategy to expand within U.S. SMB restaurants and to broaden its reach into enterprise restaurants.
- Product Innovation and Platform Diversification, including AI: Toast is continuously investing in research and development to introduce new products and services, enhancing its existing platform, and expanding its financial technology solutions. This includes leveraging AI to automate restaurant workflows, offer AI agents for tasks like marketing, payroll, and inventory management, and developing AI-driven personalization through tools like ToastIQ. Such innovations are expected to increase customer adoption and differentiate the platform.
- International and New Vertical Market Expansion: The company is actively pursuing geographical expansion, with a particular focus on international markets such as the UK, Canada, Ireland, and Australia, with potential entry into Western Europe. Simultaneously, Toast is broadening its reach into adjacent verticals beyond its traditional small and medium-sized business (SMB) focus, including enterprise restaurants and food and beverage retail.
- Growth in Fintech Solutions and Payment Volume: Toast's financial technology solutions, including payment processing and Toast Capital (loans advanced to restaurants), are expected to continue driving revenue growth. These solutions contribute significantly to recurring gross profit streams, with growth projected in these segments. The company is also working to optimize payment take rates through cost optimization and new products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions for Toast (TOST) (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Toast initiated a share buyback program in 2024.
- Since the program's inception in 2024, Toast has repurchased approximately 8 million shares for $235 million, with $107 million of that occurring in 2025 through the repurchase of 3 million shares.
- On February 10, 2026, the Board of Directors approved a $500 million increase to the existing share repurchase authorization, signaling confidence in the company's financial health and capital-return strategy.
Share Issuance
- Toast's shares outstanding have consistently increased over the past few years, growing from 0.290 billion at the end of 2021 to 0.591 billion at the end of 2024.
- As of September 30, 2025, shares outstanding were 609 million, representing a 3.22% increase year-over-year.
- The company's IPO in 2021 involved significant share issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Toast acquired Xtra Chef, Inc. for $49 million on June 8, 2021. The consideration included $23.5 million in cash and 0.56 million shares, with additional payments contingent on revenue targets.
- Toast has made strategic integrations and acquisitions aimed at attracting larger enterprise clients and enhancing its platform, such as with Firehouse Subs and Zabar's.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were $53 million, a slight decrease from $54 million in 2024.
- The company's business model is considered capital-intensive, necessitating cash investments in working capital and capital expenditures, such as building new facilities.
- Toast's capital expenditures are projected to be around 3% of revenue for increased investments in product innovation and expansion efforts, with an estimated $99 million for Q1 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TOST.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 02282022 | TOST | Toast | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -8.9% | -7.8% | -38.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,453 |
| Op Inc LTM | 364 |
| FCF LTM | 391 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 299 |
| CFO LTM | 672 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 448 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/CFO | 5.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -51.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -29.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -79.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -116.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 4,960 | 3,865 | |||
| Financial technology solutions | 2,268 | 1,406 | 644 | ||
| Hardware and professional services | 139 | ||||
| Subscription services | 324 | 169 | 101 | ||
| Hardware | 112 | 64 | |||
| Professional services | 18 | 14 | |||
| Total | 4,960 | 3,865 | 2,731 | 1,705 | 823 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 19 | -246 | |||
| Total | 19 | -246 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $26.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 15.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/22/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.45 | $33.06 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.6% | -21.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.6% | 45.4% |
| Downside Capture | 63.41 | 179.36 |
| Upside Capture | 22.06 | 66.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.1% | 32.3% |
TOST Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.40 | 0.95 | 1.51 | 1.53 | 1.42 | 1.58 |
| Up Beta | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.70 | 1.37 | 1.45 |
| Down Beta | 1.90 | 0.33 | 1.39 | 1.31 | 1.87 | 1.65 |
| Up Capture | 138% | 123% | 177% | 174% | 87% | 442% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 34 | 61 | 125 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 658% | 122% | 207% | 186% | 142% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 63 | 125 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOST | -41.5% | 45.1% | -1.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 66.5% | 20.7% | 2.36 | 24.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | -7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 23.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOST | -17.0% | 61.3% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.8% | 0.84 | 49.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 53.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 29.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TOST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOST | -8.9% | 61.3% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.0% | 24.5% | 0.95 | 49.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 53.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 29.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -14.7% | -21.5% | |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.6% | 3.6% | 7.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | 9.5% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | -7.6% | -13.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 11.4% | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | 0.7% | -5.9% | -10.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 14.7% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -6.1% | 2.3% | -0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 7.8% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -14.7% | -14.7% | -11.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| Max Negative | -22.8% | -36.7% | -38.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/28/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit | 565.00 Mil | 570.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 11.8% | Raised | Guidance: 510.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 185.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 15.2% | Raised | Guidance: 165.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit | 2.29 Bil | 2.31 Bil | 2.32 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.29 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 790.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 810.00 Mil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 785.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Subscription Services and Financial Technology Solutions Gross Profit | 505.00 Mil | 510.00 Mil | 515.00 Mil | 5.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 485.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 160.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 13.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Subscription Services and Financial Technology Solutions Gross Profit | 2.27 Bil | 2.29 Bil | 2.30 Bil | 22.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.87 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 775.00 Mil | 785.00 Mil | 795.00 Mil | 27.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 615.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick, Deval L | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 36.95 | 1,667 | 61,587 | 1,692,635 | Form | |
| 2 | Vassil, Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 26.19 | 6,438 | 168,592 | 3,839,486 | Form |
| 3 | Elworthy, Brian R | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 26.19 | 3,664 | 95,949 | 6,380,253 | Form |
| 4 | Fredette, Stephen | President | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 26.19 | 7,289 | 190,877 | 24,117,834 | Form |
| 5 | Gomez, Elena | President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 26.19 | 8,929 | 233,824 | 4,532,027 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 5/29/2026