Toast (TOST)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $36.4 | Market Cap: $21.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Toast (TOST)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $36.4Market Cap: $21.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | Key risksTOST key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the volatile restaurant industry, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksTOST key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on the volatile restaurant industry, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TOST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Toast (TOST) experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 19.7% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
**1. Underperformance Relative to Broader Market and Sector.**
In the month leading up to September 30, 2025, Toast's stock lost 17.67%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 3.15%, and the Computer and Technology sector, which rose 7.63% during the same period. This notable divergence from general market and sector trends contributed to investor concerns.
**2. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss.**
Toast reported its third-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS at $0.16, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.23 by 30%. This marked the company's first EPS miss after two consecutive beats in the first and second quarters of 2025, likely leading to a negative market reaction despite a revenue beat and strong operational performance.
**3. Concerns Regarding Declining Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per Location.**
Leading into the third quarter, analysts highlighted a decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location as a "red flag." In the second quarter of 2025, GPV per location decreased by 1% year over year, with expectations for it to remain down, signaling potential softening in core business engagement.
**4. Vulnerability Due to Premium Valuation.**
Toast's stock was trading at a premium valuation, evidenced by a Forward P/E ratio of 37.89 on October 30, 2025, which was notably higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 29.91. Such a stretched valuation often makes a stock more susceptible to sharp downturns on any perceived negative news or operational challenges.
**5. Inefficiency in Customer Acquisition and Competitive Landscape.**
Analysis surrounding the Q3 2025 results indicated that Toast's customer acquisition efforts were becoming less efficient. The company's incremental sales and marketing investments outpaced its revenue, resulting in a negative customer acquisition cost (CAC) payback period. This suggested an increasingly competitive market where product differentiation might be challenging.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TOST Return | � | � | -48% | 1% | 100% | 0% | � |
| Peers Return | � | -23% | -30% | 45% | 33% | -44% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TOST Win Rate | � | 33% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 40% | 58% | 56% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TOST Max Drawdown | � | � | -63% | -23% | -11% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -29% | -48% | -9% | -19% | -53% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FISV, LSPD, FOUR, PAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TOST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 414.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CACI, MMS, WU, CSGS, AGPU
In The Past
Toast's stock fell -80.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -80.6% loss requires a 414.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Toast Earnings Notes | |||
| With Toast Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Which Stock Will Rally: Affirm or Toast? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Toast vs Amphenol: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Toast vs Paymentus: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Toast Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than TOST Stock: Pay Less Than Toast To Get More From CALM, TMDX | |||
| Why Toast Stock Moved: TOST Stock Has Gained 101% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| TOST Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Should You Buy Toast Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| TOST’s One-Day Drop Offers a Chance to Reevaluate AFRM | September 23rd, 2025 | ||
| TOST Down 8.6% In A Month. How Confident Are You In The Stock? | September 23rd, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 29th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TOST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Toast
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,878 |
| Op Inc LTM | 247 |
| FCF LTM | 299 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 267 |
| CFO LTM | 541 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 314 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 6.2 |
| P/E | 10.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -30.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -38.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -44.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -51.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 3,865 | |||
| Financial technology solutions | 2,268 | 1,406 | 644 | |
| Hardware and professional services | 139 | |||
| Subscription services | 324 | 169 | 101 | |
| Hardware | 112 | 64 | ||
| Professional services | 18 | 14 | ||
| Total | 3,865 | 2,731 | 1,705 | 823 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -246 | |||
| Total | -246 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 9.5% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | -7.6% | -13.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 11.4% | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | 0.7% | -5.9% | -10.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 14.7% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -6.1% | 2.3% | -0.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | 13.0% | 14.5% | -4.7% |
| 2/15/2024 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 22.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 9.5% | 9.8% | 17.2% |
| Median Negative | -15.7% | -11.2% | -11.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| Max Negative | -22.8% | -36.7% | -38.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Elworthy Brian R | General Counsel | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,059 | 37,636 | 8,139,035 | Form |
| 1 | Fredette Stephen | President | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,732 | 61,554 | 31,994,482 | Form |
| 2 | Gomez Elena | President, CFO | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 2,021 | 71,824 | 5,382,844 | Form |
| 3 | Narang Aman | CEO | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,732 | 61,554 | 11,370,312 | Form |
| 4 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,442 | 51,247 | 2,538,338 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |