Toast (TOST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.18 | Market Cap: $20.6 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Toast (TOST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.18Market Cap: $20.6 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 86x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 78x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TOST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -22% stock movement for Toast (TOST) from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025:
1. Significant Stock Decline and Underperformance in September 2025: Leading up to September 30, 2025, Toast's shares experienced a substantial decline of 17.67% within the preceding month. This downturn occurred while the broader Computer and Technology sector gained 7.63% and the S&P 500 saw a 3.15% increase, indicating specific negative pressures or sentiment affecting Toast that diverged from general market trends.
2. Downward Revision of Earnings Estimates: In the month leading up to October 30, 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toast's earnings per share (EPS) was revised downward by 5.12%. Such revisions often signal increasing concerns among analysts about a company's future profitability, which can negatively impact investor confidence and stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TOST Return | - | - | -48% | 1% | 100% | -7% | -3% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 7% | -2% | 3% | 2% | 22% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TOST Win Rate | - | 33% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 50% | 38% | 45% | 43% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TOST Max Drawdown | - | - | -63% | -23% | -11% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -9% | -15% | -10% | -10% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CACI, MMS, WU, CSGS, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TOST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -80.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 414.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to CACI, MMS, WU, CSGS, CHOW
In The Past
Toast's stock fell -80.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -80.6% loss requires a 414.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TOST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Toast
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,429 |
| Op Inc LTM | 517 |
| FCF LTM | 403 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 267 |
| CFO LTM | 542 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 314 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Elworthy Brian R | General Counsel | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,059 | 37,636 | 8,139,035 | Form |
| 1 | Fredette Stephen | President | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,732 | 61,554 | 31,994,482 | Form |
| 2 | Gomez Elena | President, CFO | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 2,021 | 71,824 | 5,382,844 | Form |
| 3 | Narang Aman | CEO | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,732 | 61,554 | 11,370,312 | Form |
| 4 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 11052025 | Sell | 35.54 | 1,442 | 51,247 | 2,538,338 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |