Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.32 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.32Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FOUR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results. Shift4 Payments reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results. While the company met or slightly beat EPS expectations with an actual EPS of $1.47 against a forecast of $1.47 or $1.46, its reported revenue of $589.2 million fell short of analyst estimates which were approximately $1.19 billion. This revenue miss, despite significant year-over-year growth, contributed to a complex market reaction.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions. Several analyst firms adjusted their outlook on Shift4 Payments, reducing their price targets for the stock in late 2025. For example, Truist Financial reduced its target price from $80.00 to $74.00 in November, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered theirs from $90.00 to $75.00 in November. Goldman Sachs and Benchmark also trimmed their price objectives in November, indicating a more cautious stance from the analyst community.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOUR Return | - | -23% | -3% | 33% | 40% | -32% | -6% |
| Peers Return | 7% | -7% | -18% | 26% | -1% | 9% | 11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOUR Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 43% | 58% | 48% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOUR Max Drawdown | - | -35% | -47% | -22% | -22% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -21% | -34% | -14% | -19% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HQY, LYFT, MMS, TNET, WU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 879 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 148 days |
Compare to HQY, LYFT, MMS, TNET, WU
In The Past
Shift4 Payments's stock fell -70.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -70.0% loss requires a 232.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FOUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Shift4 Payments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,570 |
| Op Inc LTM | 288 |
| FCF LTM | 306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 343 |
| CFO LTM | 454 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 480 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Whalen James J. | See Remarks | 8192025 | Sell | 89.89 | 794 | 71,377 | 5,063,246 | Form |
| 1 | Isaacman Jared | Executive Chairman | 8112025 | Buy | 81.90 | 91,721 | 7,512,143 | 68,389,073 | Form |
| 2 | Davis Karen Roter | 7022025 | Sell | 100.00 | 750 | 75,000 | 820,900 | Form | |
| 3 | Goldsmith-Grover Sarah | 7022025 | Sell | 100.00 | 2,957 | 295,700 | 688,400 | Form | |
| 4 | Disman Nancy | Chief Financial Officer | 6172025 | Sell | 90.23 | 8,258 | 745,138 | 15,282,086 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |