Tearsheet

Shift4 Payments (FOUR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.32 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Shift4 Payments (FOUR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $70.32
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.6%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.6%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FOUR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results. Shift4 Payments reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results. While the company met or slightly beat EPS expectations with an actual EPS of $1.47 against a forecast of $1.47 or $1.46, its reported revenue of $589.2 million fell short of analyst estimates which were approximately $1.19 billion. This revenue miss, despite significant year-over-year growth, contributed to a complex market reaction.

2. Analyst Price Target Reductions. Several analyst firms adjusted their outlook on Shift4 Payments, reducing their price targets for the stock in late 2025. For example, Truist Financial reduced its target price from $80.00 to $74.00 in November, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered theirs from $90.00 to $75.00 in November. Goldman Sachs and Benchmark also trimmed their price objectives in November, indicating a more cautious stance from the analyst community.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FOUR Return--23%-3%33%40%-32%-6%
Peers Return7%-7%-18%26%-1%9%11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FOUR Win Rate83%42%50%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%43%58%48%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FOUR Max Drawdown--35%-47%-22%-22%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-21%-34%-14%-19%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HQY, LYFT, MMS, TNET, WU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFOURS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven232.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven879 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven17 days148 days

Compare to HQY, LYFT, MMS, TNET, WU


In The Past

Shift4 Payments's stock fell -70.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -70.0% loss requires a 232.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

Better Bets than Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FOUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Shift4 Payments

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FOURHQYLYFTMMSTNETWUMedian
NameShift4 P.HealthEq.Lyft Maximus Trinet Western . 
Mkt Price70.0998.6422.3384.8658.069.0564.08
Mkt Cap4.88.59.14.82.82.94.8
Rev LTM3,8781,2696,2745,4295,0394,1004,570
Op Inc LTM30227425517236750288
FCF LTM2993131,028-144238403306
FCF 3Y Avg28095447150420406343
CFO LTM5413671,076-56307542454
CFO 3Y Avg465296547243494552480

Growth & Margins

FOURHQYLYFTMMSTNETWUMedian
NameShift4 P.HealthEq.Lyft Maximus Trinet Western . 
Rev Chg LTM23.2%15.4%14.9%3.4%-1.1%-2.5%9.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.9%16.9%17.4%6.0%1.0%-4.2%11.4%
Rev Chg Q29.4%8.6%10.7%2.5%-1.6%-0.3%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.4%2.1%2.7%0.6%-0.4%-0.1%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM7.8%21.6%0.4%9.5%4.7%18.3%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.8%15.6%-8.9%8.3%7.7%17.8%8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%2.0%1.3%0.4%-0.2%0.9%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM14.0%28.9%17.1%-1.0%6.1%13.2%13.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.1%26.5%8.9%4.8%9.8%13.0%11.4%
FCF/Rev LTM7.7%24.7%16.4%-2.6%4.7%9.8%8.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%8.2%6.9%3.0%8.3%9.6%8.3%

Valuation

FOURHQYLYFTMMSTNETWUMedian
NameShift4 P.HealthEq.Lyft Maximus Trinet Western . 
Mkt Cap4.88.59.14.82.82.94.8
P/S1.47.11.40.70.60.61.1
P/EBIT13.036.550.37.713.63.413.3
P/E27.262.259.312.624.13.325.7
P/CFO9.824.78.3-70.810.54.79.1
Total Yield3.7%1.6%1.7%9.7%5.7%42.2%4.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%1.6%12.2%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.2%1.3%5.2%2.6%8.9%11.3%5.7%
D/E0.90.10.10.40.31.00.4
Net D/E0.60.1-0.10.40.2-0.10.1

Returns

FOURHQYLYFTMMSTNETWUMedian
NameShift4 P.HealthEq.Lyft Maximus Trinet Western . 
1M Rtn2.5%4.0%6.6%2.1%-3.3%-0.5%2.3%
3M Rtn-20.6%3.2%32.0%-3.8%-18.1%6.8%-0.3%
6M Rtn-25.6%-12.8%46.3%20.5%-29.9%2.8%-5.0%
12M Rtn-38.6%-2.7%32.0%15.6%-36.5%-8.1%-5.4%
3Y Rtn39.9%50.5%101.2%21.3%-17.3%-19.2%30.6%
1M Excs Rtn2.5%4.1%6.6%2.1%-3.2%-0.5%2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-25.3%-4.4%27.6%-9.1%-23.9%1.4%-6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-40.3%-27.5%31.6%5.8%-44.6%-11.9%-19.7%
12M Excs Rtn-52.1%-16.4%15.1%2.2%-50.5%-22.7%-19.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-10.3%-14.7%35.9%-42.5%-88.7%-90.9%-28.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment2,565    
Payments-based revenue 1,8571,258684644
Subscription and other revenues 1361108388
Total2,5651,9941,368767731


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,042,134
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.4%
Average Daily Volume3,364,524
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.17
Basic Shares Quantity68,561,823
Short % of Basic Shares20.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Whalen James J.See Remarks8192025Sell89.8979471,3775,063,246Form
1Isaacman JaredExecutive Chairman8112025Buy81.9091,7217,512,14368,389,073Form
2Davis Karen Roter 7022025Sell100.0075075,000820,900Form
3Goldsmith-Grover Sarah 7022025Sell100.002,957295,700688,400Form
4Disman NancyChief Financial Officer6172025Sell90.238,258745,13815,282,086Form