Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $65.5 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Shift4 Payments (FOUR)
Market Price (12/28/2025): $65.5Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Key risksFOUR key risks include [1] its significant exposure to cyclical consumer spending due to its concentration in the hospitality and entertainment verticals, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% |
| Key risksFOUR key risks include [1] its significant exposure to cyclical consumer spending due to its concentration in the hospitality and entertainment verticals, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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<br><br>
<b>1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Performance.</b> Shift4 Payments reported its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, 2025, revealing a significant miss on revenue and earnings per share (EPS) compared to analyst expectations. The company posted revenue of $413.4 million, substantially below the consensus estimate of $996.8 million, and an EPS of $1.10, missing the forecast of $1.22, leading to an approximate 8% drop in pre-market trading and setting a negative sentiment for the period.<br><br>
<b>2. Broader Payments Sector Sell-off and Macroeconomic Headwinds.</b> Throughout 2025, the payments industry faced challenges from inflation, rising interest rates, and a maturing consumer card market, suppressing e-commerce growth. Shift4 Payments was particularly vulnerable due to 60% of its transaction volume being reliant on the restaurant and hospitality sectors, which were facing a deteriorating macroeconomic environment.<br><br>
<b>3. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Analyst Revisions.</b> On November 6, 2025, Shift4 Payments announced its third-quarter results. While some reports indicated an EPS beat, several sources highlighted that the company's reported revenue of $1.18 billion fell short of the $1.19 billion consensus estimate, and EPS of $1.47 narrowly missed the $1.50 consensus. This mixed performance contributed to investor caution, with the stock having fallen 13.2% during Q3 and 35.3% year-to-date by this reporting date.<br><br>
<b>4. Concerns Over Organic Growth Pace and Increased Competition.</b> The company experienced a deceleration in its organic growth during Q2, and its reaffirmed fiscal year 2025 end-to-end volume projections suggested potential stagnation amidst intensifying competition in the payments market.<br><br>
<b>5. Elevated Debt Levels and Subsequent Offerings.</b> Shift4 Payments continued to carry substantial debt, estimated at over $2.8 billion by the end of 2024, with a high debt-to-equity ratio and significant leverage. Further contributing to these concerns, Shift4 Payments announced the pricing of a €435 million tack-on offering of Senior Notes due 2033 on December 3, 2025, which could have reinforced worries about the company's financial leverage.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.6% change in FOUR stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -17.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9272025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.12 | 65.23 | -17.56% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3610.70 | 3878.40 | 7.41% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.11% | 5.02% | -17.75% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.33 | 22.96 | -5.63% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67.80 | 68.56 | -1.12% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.57% |
Market Drivers
9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOUR | -17.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 48.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.3% | 47.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.6% change in FOUR stock from 6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -23.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6282025 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.22 | 65.23 | -33.59% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3471.50 | 3878.40 | 11.72% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.50% | 5.02% | -22.75% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.09 | 22.96 | -23.71% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69.15 | 68.56 | 0.85% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.59% |
Market Drivers
6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOUR | -33.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 37.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.7% change in FOUR stock from 12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a -59.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12272024 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.70 | 65.23 | -37.70% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3149.00 | 3878.40 | 23.16% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.04% | 5.02% | 24.25% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.30 | 22.96 | -59.22% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 68.45 | 68.56 | -0.16% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.70% |
Market Drivers
12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOUR | -37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 51.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 15.3% | 50.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.0% change in FOUR stock from 12/28/2022 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 155.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12282022 | 12272025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.45 | 65.23 | 22.04% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1855.30 | 3878.40 | 109.04% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.97% | 5.02% | 155.30% |
| P/E Multiple | 80.76 | 22.96 | -71.57% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55.15 | 68.56 | -24.32% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.82% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOUR | -12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 48.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 51.3% | 48.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOUR Return | 125% | -23% | -3% | 33% | 40% | -37% | 94% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOUR Win Rate | 86% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOUR Max Drawdown | -5% | -35% | -47% | -22% | -22% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOUR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 879 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 148 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Shift4 Payments's stock fell -70.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/9/2021. A -70.0% loss requires a 232.8% gain to breakeven.
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```htmlHere are 1-2 brief analogies for Shift4 Payments (FOUR):
- Shift4 is like Square, but focused on larger businesses like hotels, restaurants, and stadiums, providing integrated payment processing and business management solutions.
- Shift4 is like Toast, but for a wider range of large hospitality and entertainment venues beyond just restaurants, including hotels, casinos, and theme parks.
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- Payment Processing Services: Facilitates the acceptance, authorization, and settlement of credit and debit card transactions for merchants.
- Point-of-Sale (POS) Systems: Provides integrated hardware and software solutions, such as SkyTab, for managing sales transactions and business operations.
- Payment Gateway Solutions: Offers secure connectivity and APIs for businesses to link their systems to various payment networks and process transactions online.
- Integrated Payment Solutions for ISVs: Enables independent software vendors (ISVs) to embed payment processing capabilities directly into their applications and platforms.
- Business Intelligence & Analytics: Delivers data insights and reporting tools to help merchants analyze their transaction data and optimize business performance.
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Shift4 Payments (FOUR) primarily sells its payment processing and technology solutions to other businesses (merchants) across a wide range of industries. Due to the nature of the payment processing industry, which typically involves a vast number of individual merchant relationships, Shift4 does not publicly disclose a short list of "major customer companies" that would constitute a significant portion of its revenue. Furthermore, these customers are often individual properties, franchises, or privately held businesses rather than a few large, publicly traded entities that would have a stock symbol.
Instead, Shift4 serves a broad and diverse merchant base within key verticals. The major categories of businesses that Shift4 serves include:
- Hospitality Businesses: This segment includes a wide array of hotels, resorts, restaurants, bars, and independent hospitality venues. Shift4 often processes payments for properties operating under major hotel brands (e.g., Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, though these are typically individual properties/franchisees) as well as numerous independent restaurants and large casino operators.
- Sports & Entertainment Venues: Shift4 is a prominent payment processor for major sports stadiums (serving various NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL teams), concert arenas, theme parks, and other entertainment complexes. They handle transactions for concessions, merchandise, and ticketing at these high-volume locations.
- Retail & E-commerce Businesses: Shift4 also caters to a broad base of brick-and-mortar retail stores, ranging from small businesses to larger chains, as well as online businesses that require comprehensive e-commerce payment solutions.
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- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- American Express Company (AXP)
- Discover Financial Services (DFS)
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Jared Isaacman, Executive Chairman (Founder and former CEO)
Jared Isaacman founded Shift4 Payments (originally United Bank Card) in 1999 at the age of 16 and has served as CEO since its inception until recently becoming Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, the company grew into a publicly traded enterprise, processing over $200 billion in payments annually by 2020. In 2012, Isaacman co-founded Draken International, a defense aerospace company providing adversary training, which he later sold a majority stake in to Blackstone, a Wall Street firm, in 2019 for a nine-figure sum.
Taylor Lauber, CEO
Taylor Lauber assumed the role of CEO in February 2022 and has a tenure of 3.75 years. He previously held the President role for nearly seven years, starting in 2018. He also served as Chief Strategy Officer.
Christopher N. Cruz, Chief Financial Officer
Christopher N. Cruz was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Shift4 Payments effective September 1, 2025. Prior to this role, he was a member of Shift4's board of directors since the company went public in 2020. His background includes experience in investing, having served as a partner at the investment management firm Searchlight Capital and as a member of the investment team at Oaktree Capital Management.
Michael Isaacman, Chief Commercial Officer
Michael Isaacman serves as the Chief Commercial Officer at Shift4 Payments.
Doug Demko, Chief Operating Officer
Doug Demko is the Chief Operating Officer of Shift4 Payments.
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The key risks to Shift4 Payments' business include its significant exposure to cyclical consumer spending, intense competition in the payments industry, and risks associated with its acquisition-led growth strategy.
- Exposure to Cyclical Consumer Discretionary Spending and Economic Uncertainty: Shift4 Payments' business is heavily concentrated in verticals such as hospitality, entertainment, and retail. These sectors are highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, making the company vulnerable to economic downturns, reduced consumer confidence, or decreases in disposable income. A decline in consumer spending directly impacts transaction volumes, which in turn can reduce Shift4's revenue and profitability.
- Intense Competition in the Payments Industry: The payments processing and technology industry is characterized by substantial and increasing competition. Shift4 faces ongoing challenges from numerous competitors, including larger, diversified peers, and other payments providers who may try to undercut pricing or offer improved products. This competitive pressure could affect Shift4's ability to retain existing customers, attract new merchants, and maintain its market position and growth prospects.
- Acquisition-Led Growth Strategy and Integration Risks: Shift4 has pursued a strategy of growth through significant acquisitions to expand its market share, capabilities, and geographic footprint. While this strategy offers opportunities, it also presents substantial integration risks. These risks include potential delays or failures in completing transactions, challenges in integrating acquired companies' operations, technologies, and personnel, navigating regulatory complexities in new markets, and the potential inability to realize anticipated synergies. Poor execution or integration could lead to operational inefficiencies, a loss of value, and strain on Shift4's financial resources, potentially limiting its ability to invest in other growth initiatives.
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The emergence and growing adoption of Account-to-Account (A2A) payments, facilitated by Open Banking initiatives and real-time payment networks like FedNow in the United States, represent a clear emerging threat to Shift4 Payments.
Traditionally, payment processors like Shift4 derive substantial revenue from fees associated with processing card-based transactions (Visa, Mastercard, etc.). A2A payments allow funds to move directly from a customer's bank account to a merchant's bank account, often bypassing card networks and their associated interchange and scheme fees. This can significantly lower transaction costs for merchants, making it an attractive alternative.
Evidence for this threat includes the increasing regulatory push for Open Banking globally (e.g., PSD2 in Europe), the rollout and increasing adoption of real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems like FedNow in the US, and the proliferation of fintech companies specializing in direct bank transfers for payments. If A2A payments gain significant market share, it could erode Shift4's traditional card-processing volumes, put downward pressure on processing margins, and necessitate substantial investment by Shift4 to adapt its platforms and business model to support these lower-margin payment rails, similar to how Netflix's streaming model disrupted Blockbuster's DVD rental business by offering a fundamentally different (and ultimately cheaper/more convenient) method of content delivery.
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Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) addresses significant markets with its main products and services. The company's addressable market has expanded considerably due to strategic acquisitions and international growth.
- The primary addressable market for Shift4 Payments was historically the $800 billion U.S. hospitality/retail market.
- With international expansion, particularly through the acquisition of Global Blue, Shift4's addressable market is projected to expand to a $1.4+ trillion global opportunity. This expanded market includes new verticals and geographies, such as luxury retail and tourism, especially across Europe and other international regions.
Shift4's main products, such as SkyTab for restaurants, hospitality, and venues, and its Unified Commerce payment infrastructure software, contribute to penetrating these markets. The acquisition of Global Blue specifically targets tax-free shopping and currency conversion, accelerating Shift4's expansion in Europe and providing access to luxury retail clients.
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Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strategic acquisitions, international expansion, sustained customer acquisition, and the continued development and cross-selling of its integrated payment solutions. Here are the key expected drivers: * Strategic Acquisitions and Integrations: Shift4 Payments has demonstrated a clear strategy of bolstering its market position and revenue through significant acquisitions. The acquisition of Global Blue Group Holding AG is expected to contribute substantially to revenue, with an anticipated additional $305 million to revenue and $125 million to EBITDA, significantly enhancing financial performance. Furthermore, the upcoming acquisition of Bambora (Worldline North America), described as a "$90 billion payment gateway," is also a key component of this growth strategy. These acquisitions aim to expand Shift4's customer base and geographic footprint. The acquisition of Givex in Q3 2024 also contributed to growth. * International Expansion: A significant portion of Shift4's future revenue growth is expected to come from its accelerated internationalization efforts, particularly within Europe. The company aims to leverage the Global Blue acquisition to expand its global footprint, connecting over 400,000 stores worldwide with 15 million shoppers. International business already accounts for 20% of revenues, predominantly from Europe, with 30% of new merchants signed in Q4 2024 originating from Europe. * Customer Acquisition and Payments Cross-Sell: Shift4 is focused on increasing its customer base, particularly by shifting towards larger enterprise accounts in sectors like hospitality, sports, entertainment, and global e-commerce. A core part of the strategy involves winning new customers and a strong emphasis on cross-selling its comprehensive payment solutions to existing and newly acquired software customers, leading to a higher average revenue per merchant and increased customer lifetime value. The company's pipeline and strategic acquisitions are expected to drive continued growth and market leadership by expanding its merchant payments. * New Verticals, Product Innovation, and Value-Added Services: The company is investing in and expanding into new verticals and continually developing value-added services and new products. This includes enhancing its "Unified Commerce" platform and offerings like SkyTab. Shift4 reported increased contributions from new verticals and geographies in Q3 2025, offsetting some softening in established sectors. This diversification and product enhancement are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge and driving sustained growth.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Shift4's board authorized a new $1 billion stock repurchase program, marking it as the largest in the company's history.
- In May 2025, Shift4 Payments launched a $500 million share buyback program, supported by a $3.3 billion capital raise.
- During Q2 2025, the company repurchased $85 million in shares at a price of $74 per share.
Share Issuance
- A $3.3 billion capital raise was completed in May 2025, which included $1.0 billion in mandatory convertible preferred equity.
- The capital raised was intended to fund the acquisition of Global Blue and facilitate the repurchase of outstanding senior notes.
- Shift4 Payments, Inc. received $1,000.0 million from the issuance of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, in exchange for 10,000,000 units of Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Mirror Units from Shift4 Payments, LLC.
Outbound Investments
- Shift4 acquired Global Blue for $2.5 billion.
- The company made an acquisition of SmartPay.
- Shift4 announced the upcoming acquisition of Bambora (Worldline North America), described as a "$90 billion payment gateway."
Capital Expenditures
- Shift4 Payments' capital expenditures demonstrated an increasing trend, growing from $383.8 million in 2020 to $2.26 billion in 2024.
- For the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, capital expenditures totaled $2.147 billion.
- Projected capital expenditures are estimated at $93.25 million for 2025, increasing to $117 million in 2026 and $133 million in 2027.
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| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.1% | -11.1% | -12.1% |
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Peer Comparisons for Shift4 Payments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $65.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/05/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -48.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $69.47 | $83.96 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.1% | -22.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.4% | 48.0% |
| Downside Capture | 216.65 | 143.00 |
| Upside Capture | 80.57 | 73.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.8% | 51.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.81 | 1.47 | 1.36 | 1.42 | 1.24 | 1.51 |
| Up Beta | 2.69 | 2.33 | 2.38 | 1.91 | 1.37 | 1.49 |
| Down Beta | -1.69 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 1.05 | 1.39 | 1.57 |
| Up Capture | 273% | 104% | 32% | 66% | 53% | 325% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 25 | 59 | 122 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 174% | 183% | 190% | 192% | 116% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 37 | 65 | 125 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of FOUR With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOUR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -37.0% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 47.7% | 19.0% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.81 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 50.5% | 51.1% | 1.1% | 14.2% | 36.0% | 21.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of FOUR With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOUR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -0.8% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 55.3% | 18.9% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 44.1% | 52.2% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 40.9% | 24.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of FOUR With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOUR | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 12.8% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 56.5% | 22.3% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 42.3% | 50.2% | 5.0% | 14.0% | 39.0% | 24.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.5% | 9.0% | -0.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | 12.8% | 3.7% | 13.8% |
| 2/18/2025 | -17.5% | -23.2% | -29.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -5.5% | -4.1% | -3.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 11.3% | 26.2% | 19.2% |
| 5/9/2024 | 4.0% | 22.9% | 23.5% |
| 2/27/2024 | 5.6% | 11.3% | -7.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 13.9% | 33.1% | 37.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 10.0% | 19.1% | 20.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -4.1% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 16.1% | 33.1% | 37.8% |
| Max Negative | -17.5% | -24.3% | -29.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Whalen James J. | See Remarks | 8192025 | Sell | 89.89 | 794 | 71,377 | 5,063,246 | Form |
| 1 | Isaacman Jared | Executive Chairman | 8112025 | Buy | 81.90 | 91,721 | 7,512,143 | 68,389,073 | Form |
| 2 | Davis Karen Roter | 7022025 | Sell | 100.00 | 750 | 75,000 | 820,900 | Form | |
| 3 | Goldsmith-Grover Sarah | 7022025 | Sell | 100.00 | 2,957 | 295,700 | 688,400 | Form | |
| 4 | Disman Nancy | Chief Financial Officer | 6172025 | Sell | 90.23 | 8,258 | 745,138 | 15,282,086 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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