Stag Industrial (STAG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.87 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Industrial REITs
Stag Industrial (STAG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.87Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Industrial REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STAG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Stag Industrial (STAG) stock moved by 7.1% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** STAG Industrial announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results on October 29, 2025, reporting $0.26 of net income per basic and diluted common share and achieving $0.65 of Core FFO per diluted share, an 8.3% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024. The company's revenue of $211.1 million also slightly surpassed analyst expectations.
**2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance.** Following its strong Q3 performance, STAG Industrial raised its full-year 2025 Core FFO guidance, signaling management's confidence in continued operational strength and long-term value creation.
**3. Robust Leasing Activity and High Occupancy Rates.** As of September 30, 2025, the company maintained a high occupancy rate of 95.8% for its total portfolio and 96.8% for its operating portfolio. It also achieved significant cash rent changes of 27.2% on commenced operating portfolio leases in the third quarter of 2025.
**4. Strategic Acquisitions and Portfolio Expansion.** In the third quarter of 2025, STAG Industrial continued its growth strategy by acquiring two buildings for $101.5 million, adding approximately 1.0 million square feet to its portfolio.
**5. Successful Debt Refinancing.** The company enhanced its financial flexibility by refinancing a $300 million term loan G, extending its maturity from February 2026 to March 15, 2030.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STAG Return | 4% | 59% | -30% | 27% | -10% | 19% | 58% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 36% | -19% | 14% | 3% | 15% | 47% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STAG Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 75% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 65% | 43% | 50% | 58% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STAG Max Drawdown | -42% | -5% | -42% | -2% | -12% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -4% | -30% | -14% | -11% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AGNC, EGP, ADC, FR, STWD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STAG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 120 days |
Compare to AGNC, EGP, ADC, FR, STWD
In The Past
Stag Industrial's stock fell -44.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -44.0% loss requires a 78.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STAG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.7% | 8.7% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.7% | 8.7% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Stag Industrial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 756 |
| Op Inc LTM | 305 |
| FCF LTM | 477 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 373 |
| CFO LTM | 477 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 379 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 40.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 65.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 55.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 65.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 10.2 |
| P/EBIT | 22.4 |
| P/E | 28.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |