Tearsheet

SoundThinking (SSTI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $7.93 | Market Cap: $101.2 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

SoundThinking (SSTI)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $7.93
Market Cap: $101.2 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.4%
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%
3   Key risks
SSTI key risks include [1] high revenue concentration with a few government customers, Show more.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -115%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.7%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.4%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%
6 Key risks
SSTI key risks include [1] high revenue concentration with a few government customers, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SSTI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

SoundThinking (SSTI) experienced a significant stock decline of approximately -37.7% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:

1. Poor Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: The company reported weaker-than-expected financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which were announced on November 12, 2025. SoundThinking posted a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.16), significantly missing consensus estimates of ($0.06). Revenue also fell 4% year-over-year to $25.1 million, failing to meet the consensus forecast of $28.4 million. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5 million, well below the estimated $6.3 million, and the company lowered its full-year guidance.

2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Following the disappointing Q3 2025 earnings, several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for SSTI. On November 13, 2025, Roth Capital reduced its price target from $30.00 to $20.00, marking a 33.33% decrease. Citizens lowered its price target to $16 from $19, and Craig-Hallum downgraded SoundThinking from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating with a revised price target of $10, citing persistent underperformance and concerns over the company's financial health.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SSTI Return48%-22%15%-25%-49%-41%-70%
Peers Return487%6%-26%81%23%8%1002%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SSTI Win Rate67%33%42%42%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate52%52%40%65%55%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SSTI Max Drawdown-19%-22%-19%-57%-61%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-19%-49%-6%-29%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSI, AXON, VRRM, EVLV, REKR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSSTIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven261.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven238 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-70.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven238.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC


In The Past

SoundThinking's stock fell -72.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -72.3% loss requires a 261.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About SoundThinking (SSTI)

Better Bets than SoundThinking (SSTI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SSTI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for SoundThinking

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SSTIMSIAXONVRRMEVLVREKRMedian
NameSoundThi.Motorola.Axon Ent.Verra Mo.Evolv Te.Rekor Sy. 
Mkt Price7.93363.83555.0621.796.861.6414.86
Mkt Cap0.260.743.53.51.20.22.3
Rev LTM10311,0942,55894313749540
Op Inc LTM-102,785-28249-53-30-19
FCF LTM-12,384145153-35-2872
FCF 3Y Avg82,047166163-64-3485
CFO LTM42,6122442566-25125
CFO 3Y Avg132,293241238-14-32126

Growth & Margins

SSTIMSIAXONVRRMEVLVREKRMedian
NameSoundThi.Motorola.Axon Ent.Verra Mo.Evolv Te.Rekor Sy. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.8%6.4%32.0%8.5%43.2%11.9%10.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.0%9.5%33.7%9.1%51.7%58.1%22.8%
Rev Chg Q-4.4%5.2%30.6%16.1%56.6%34.6%23.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%1.3%7.0%4.0%12.8%8.0%5.5%
Op Mgn LTM-9.7%25.1%-1.1%26.4%-38.7%-61.4%-5.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.3%23.8%4.8%25.3%-79.1%-101.9%-1.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.1%0.1%-1.0%0.1%11.3%24.5%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM3.8%23.5%9.5%27.2%4.6%-52.0%7.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.6%21.9%12.4%27.6%-16.7%-82.8%13.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.0%21.5%5.7%16.2%-25.8%-57.9%2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.6%19.6%8.7%19.0%-69.0%-87.8%8.1%

Valuation

SSTIMSIAXONVRRMEVLVREKRMedian
NameSoundThi.Motorola.Axon Ent.Verra Mo.Evolv Te.Rekor Sy. 
Mkt Cap0.260.743.53.51.20.22.3
P/S1.56.922.04.28.74.05.5
P/EBIT-25.5237.422.8-22.1-24.1
P/E-14.336.0218.977.1-19.8-4.515.8
P/CFO39.029.2230.415.4188.1-7.734.1
Total Yield-7.0%3.7%0.5%1.3%-5.0%-22.3%-2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.1%0.6%4.4%-8.6%-1.9%
D/E-0.10.00.30.0-0.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.2-0.0-0.0

Returns

SSTIMSIAXONVRRMEVLVREKRMedian
NameSoundThi.Motorola.Axon Ent.Verra Mo.Evolv Te.Rekor Sy. 
1M Rtn13.1%-3.9%0.1%-6.0%14.3%-23.4%-1.9%
3M Rtn-35.6%-23.4%-26.1%-9.5%-18.0%13.9%-20.7%
6M Rtn-49.6%-10.0%-28.6%-9.2%31.2%37.8%-9.6%
12M Rtn-34.7%-21.3%-14.5%-10.4%76.3%97.6%-12.4%
3Y Rtn-77.3%49.0%227.8%56.2%139.0%168.6%97.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.1%-4.9%-0.9%-7.0%13.4%-24.3%-2.9%
3M Excs Rtn-37.1%-26.6%-29.2%-12.6%-18.9%8.5%-22.8%
6M Excs Rtn-63.2%-23.6%-42.3%-22.8%17.5%24.2%-23.2%
12M Excs Rtn-50.6%-33.9%-25.2%-21.6%65.8%82.9%-23.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-150.1%-30.7%156.4%-20.9%19.9%27.2%-0.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Subscription, maintenance and support services88755546 
Professional software development services563  
Single Segment    41
Total9381584641


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity467,357
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.4%
Average Daily Volume169,903
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.75
Basic Shares Quantity12,760,595
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-14.1%-25.7%-8.7%
5/13/2025-1.4%-6.5%0.4%
2/25/202523.6%14.1%39.4%
11/12/2024-7.4%-2.6%6.2%
5/14/2024-3.4%0.6%-3.6%
2/27/2024-2.8%-9.5%-13.9%
11/7/20238.7%31.5%40.2%
8/8/2023-19.8%-1.3%-1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81010
# Negative141212
Median Positive19.0%13.8%10.4%
Median Negative-7.0%-8.9%-12.4%
Max Positive32.6%37.0%40.2%
Max Negative-21.5%-28.9%-21.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024815202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021329202210-K 12/31/2021