Tearsheet

Evolv Technologies (EVLV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.5 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Evolv Technologies (EVLV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.5
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Security & Alarm Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 160x
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 160x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EVLV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Gross Margin Compression and Reliance on Non-Recurring Revenue

Evolv Technologies experienced a decline in both GAAP and adjusted gross margins in Q3 2025, with GAAP gross margin falling to 49.7% from 57.8% year-over-year. This was attributed to shifts in fulfillment mix, costs associated with scaling the Expedite product, and approximately $3 million in one-time inventory/service adjustments. Furthermore, a significant portion of the Q3 2025 revenue beat, around $7.5 million, came from non-recurring items like a large education contract, an IP license, and short-term rentals, suggesting that underlying recurring revenue growth might have been less robust. 2. Stock Decline Post-Earnings Despite Beat

Despite Evolv Technologies reporting strong Q3 2025 financial results, including revenue that significantly surpassed forecasts and improved earnings per share, the stock experienced a decline of 2.16% during regular trading hours on November 13, 2025, and a further 0.45% drop in aftermarket trading. This indicates that even with positive financial news, other market dynamics or investor reactions might have contributed to a negative stock movement. 3. Valuation Concerns and High Price-to-Sales Ratio

As of November 20, 2025, Evolv Technologies was trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.6x, which was notably higher than the US Electronic industry average of 2.3x and its peers' average of 4.8x. This premium valuation implies high investor expectations for future growth and profitability, but it also introduces a "layer of valuation risk if targets fall short," suggesting that the stock could be susceptible to downturns if these elevated expectations are not met. 4. Bearish Short-Term Stock Forecasts

Towards the end of the specified period, some forecasts indicated a potential negative trajectory for the stock. For instance, as of December 1, 2025, there was a prediction that EVLV shares would drop by approximately 16.82% by December 30, 2025, reaching $5.32 per share. Another forecast for the next 30 days from December 1, 2025, presented a generally negative outlook, with an average analyst price target suggesting a significant decrease from the then-current price. 5. Underlying Business Challenges and Macroeconomic Uncertainties

Evolv Technologies faced broader challenges including those related to manufacturing processes, competitive pressures within its market, and prevailing macroeconomic conditions. These factors, along with potential concerns regarding the accuracy of past financial statements, were highlighted as elements that could introduce uncertainties about the company's future performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EVLV Return2252%-55%-42%82%-16%60%1385%
Peers Return-7%24%-10%24%21%8%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EVLV Win Rate25%25%42%67%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate50%57%47%65%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EVLV Max Drawdown0%-56%-62%-8%-54%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-10%-29%-17%-9%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEVLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven545.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-3.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven378.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven557 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7200.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT


In The Past

Evolv Technologies's stock fell -84.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2021. A -84.5% loss requires a 545.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Evolv Technologies (EVLV)

Better Bets than Evolv Technologies (EVLV)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EVLV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolv Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EVLVBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameEvolv Te.Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Mkt Price6.54118.3011.825.5822.318.149.98
Mkt Cap1.15.00.40.30.36.70.7
Rev LTM1215,1467151591595,113437
Op Inc LTM-535064740221,30644
FCF LTM-25418-0-27151,3877
FCF 3Y Avg-68347713211,16317
CFO LTM663627-23181,97022
CFO 3Y Avg-215583115231,87327

Growth & Margins

EVLVBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameEvolv Te.Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Rev Chg LTM37.6%3.1%-3.2%5.5%5.5%6.3%5.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg60.4%5.1%1.3%-0.3%-0.3%3.4%2.3%
Rev Chg Q29.0%6.1%7.0%18.7%18.7%4.4%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.4%1.5%1.8%4.1%4.1%1.1%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM-43.5%9.8%6.6%25.1%13.7%25.5%11.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-89.7%9.9%5.1%12.1%13.9%26.1%11.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM9.3%0.5%1.2%-0.4%0.4%-0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM5.3%12.4%3.7%-14.6%11.4%38.5%8.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-27.0%11.2%4.3%9.8%14.7%40.1%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-20.3%8.1%-0.0%-16.8%9.3%27.1%4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-80.3%7.0%1.0%8.4%13.3%24.7%7.7%

Valuation

EVLVBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameEvolv Te.Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
Mkt Cap1.15.00.40.30.36.70.7
P/S8.51.00.41.91.81.41.6
P/EBIT-11.79.28.119.613.25.68.6
P/E-11.728.817.131.014.911.116.0
P/CFO159.87.711.7-12.915.93.69.7
Total Yield-8.6%3.5%5.8%12.3%8.0%11.7%6.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%9.1%1.3%2.7%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-12.1%8.2%2.7%4.5%7.1%18.2%5.8%
D/E0.00.90.80.00.01.10.4
Net D/E-0.00.60.7-0.3-0.21.10.3

Returns

EVLVBCOMGNLCIXADTMedian
NameEvolv Te.Brink's MISTRAS NL Indus.Compx In.ADT  
1M Rtn-13.9%7.0%23.3%-3.8%2.7%-7.4%-0.5%
3M Rtn-17.9%5.3%24.9%-11.3%-4.6%-5.5%-5.1%
6M Rtn22.7%42.7%54.7%-12.9%0.4%-4.1%11.6%
12M Rtn52.8%25.9%30.6%-25.6%-12.2%11.3%18.6%
3Y Rtn87.9%106.2%203.1%2.1%51.9%-9.8%69.9%
1M Excs Rtn-13.9%7.0%23.3%-3.8%2.8%-7.4%-0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-22.5%-1.1%15.4%-18.7%-10.8%-13.1%-11.9%
6M Excs Rtn8.0%28.0%40.0%-27.6%-14.3%-18.8%-3.2%
12M Excs Rtn47.9%10.1%13.4%-36.8%-25.7%-3.7%3.2%
3Y Excs Rtn3.0%32.4%124.2%-72.4%-24.9%-76.1%-10.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services8053   
Leased Equipment  82 
Product revenue  1414
Professional Services  100
Software-as-a-service (SaaS), maintenance, and other revenue  11 
Maintenance revenue    0
Subscription revenue    1
Total80532356


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services-108-87   
Total-108-87   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,212,331
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.0%
Average Daily Volume3,241,339
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.84
Basic Shares Quantity165,252,554
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025520202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024428202510-K 12/31/2024
9302024428202510-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022324202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022818202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021