Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $7.35 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $7.35Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 198x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 117% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.0% | |
| Key risksEVLV key risks include [1] financial restatements and regulatory action stemming from sales misconduct and material weaknesses in internal controls, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.1x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 198x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 117% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.0% |
| Key risksEVLV key risks include [1] financial restatements and regulatory action stemming from sales misconduct and material weaknesses in internal controls, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EVLV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025, Evolv Technologies (EVLV) experienced a stock movement of -12.5% due to several key factors.
1. Strategic Shift in Go-to-Market Model Leading to Margin Pressure: Evolv Technologies' implementation of a strategic shift in its go-to-market model, while aimed at boosting annual recurring revenue and cash flow, was anticipated to introduce near-term headwinds on gross margins. This strategic change was cited as a reason for the stock losing positive traction and declining by over 12% since August 2025.
2. Ongoing Impact of FTC Settlement on Product Claims and Customer Contracts: The Federal Trade Commission's settlement with Evolv Technologies, stemming from allegations of misleading claims about its AI-powered security scanners, continued to exert pressure. This settlement prohibited Evolv from making unsubstantiated claims and allowed certain K-12 school customers to opt out of their contracts, potentially limiting market reach and affecting investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVLV Return | 2252% | -55% | -42% | 82% | -16% | 86% | 1629% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 14% | 6% | 14% | 4% | 22% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVLV Win Rate | 25% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 52% | 47% | 53% | 58% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVLV Max Drawdown | 0% | -56% | -62% | -8% | -54% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -11% | -17% | -28% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OSIS, LDOS, LHX, SSTI, NSSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 545.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 378.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 557 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7200.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BCO, MG, NL, CIX, ADT
In The Past
Evolv Technologies's stock fell -84.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2021. A -84.5% loss requires a 545.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Evolv Technologies Earnings Notes | ||
| Can Evolv Technologies Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EVLV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Evolv Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 113.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 970 |
| Op Inc LTM | 138 |
| FCF LTM | 81 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 26 |
| CFO LTM | 103 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 40 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 23.1 |
| P/CFO | 27.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services | 80 | ||||
| Leased Equipment | 18 | 8 | 2 | ||
| License fees | 0 | ||||
| Product revenue | 32 | 14 | 1 | 4 | |
| Professional services and other revenue | 1 | ||||
| Service revenue | 4 | ||||
| Professional Services | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Software-as-a-service (SaaS), maintenance, and other revenue | 1 | 1 | |||
| Maintenance revenue | 0 | ||||
| Subscription revenue | 1 | ||||
| Total | 80 | 55 | 23 | 5 | 6 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services | -108 | ||||
| Total | -108 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.8% | -14.0% | |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.2% | 6.2% | 14.4% |
| 4/28/2025 | -1.4% | -1.2% | 33.9% |
| 1/23/2025 | 22.7% | 20.8% | 11.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -5.0% | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -38.5% | -28.6% | -34.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | -16.8% | -21.8% | 7.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | -7.9% | 1.3% | 7.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 20.3% | 12.1% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.4% | -17.9% | -23.3% |
| Max Positive | 32.6% | 38.3% | 51.5% |
| Max Negative | -43.1% | -43.1% | -34.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 4282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |