Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $5.6 | Market Cap: $991.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Alarm Services
Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $5.6Market Cap: $991.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Security & Alarm Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -29% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9% Key risksEVLV key risks include [1] financial restatements and regulatory action stemming from sales misconduct and material weaknesses in internal controls, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -29% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 54x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.9% |
| Key risksEVLV key risks include [1] financial restatements and regulatory action stemming from sales misconduct and material weaknesses in internal controls, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolv Technologies (EVLV) stock has gained about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Evolv Technologies reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended in March 2026.
On May 12, 2026, the company announced an adjusted EPS of -$0.03, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.06 by $0.03. Additionally, quarterly revenue reached $46.33 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $44.23 million and representing a significant 45% year-over-year increase. This positive earnings surprise led to a favorable stock reaction, with shares rising 5.27% following the announcement.
2. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026.
Concurrent with its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, Evolv Technologies increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $175 million to $180 million, up from the previous outlook of $172 million to $178 million. This revised guidance projects a year-over-year growth of 20-23%, signaling continued confidence in future performance and market demand.
Show more
Evolv Technologies (EVLV) stock has gained about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Evolv Technologies reported stronger-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended in March 2026.
On May 12, 2026, the company announced an adjusted EPS of -$0.03, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.06 by $0.03. Additionally, quarterly revenue reached $46.33 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $44.23 million and representing a significant 45% year-over-year increase. This positive earnings surprise led to a favorable stock reaction, with shares rising 5.27% following the announcement.
2. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026.
Concurrent with its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, Evolv Technologies increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $175 million to $180 million, up from the previous outlook of $172 million to $178 million. This revised guidance projects a year-over-year growth of 20-23%, signaling continued confidence in future performance and market demand.
3. Evolv's AI-powered bag screening product, Evolv eXpedite, received a significant U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) SAFETY Act Designation in June 2026.
This designation officially classifies Evolv eXpedite as a Qualified Anti-Terrorism Technology. This recognition enhances the credibility and marketability of the product, potentially broadening its adoption across various security-sensitive environments.
4. The company demonstrated robust customer acquisition and growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in fiscal Q1 2026.
Evolv Technologies added nearly 50 new customers during fiscal Q1 2026, expanding its global customer base to approximately 1,300. This growth included notable deployments in the education, healthcare, and professional sports sectors. Furthermore, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $127.3 million as of March 31, 2026, marking a 20% increase year-over-year. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Plexus to enhance production capacity and global reach.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.5% change in EVLV stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.30 | 5.54 | 4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 137 | 160 | 17.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.7 | 6.1 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 173 | 177 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EVLV | 4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 40.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.9% | 28.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.3% change in EVLV stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.39 | 5.54 | -13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 137 | 160 | 17.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.1 | 6.1 | -24.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 173 | 177 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EVLV | -13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 34.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.0% | 19.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in EVLV stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.46 | 5.54 | 1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 114 | 160 | 40.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 7.7 | 6.1 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 177 | -9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EVLV | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.7% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 29.0% | 21.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.0% change in EVLV stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.96 | 5.54 | -7.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63 | 160 | 156.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 13.9 | 6.1 | -56.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 177 | -17.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EVLV | -7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.1% | 30.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 96.3% | 29.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVLV Return | -55% | -42% | 82% | -16% | 81% | -21% | -44% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 6% | 14% | 4% | 20% | -13% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVLV Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 47% | 53% | 58% | 65% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVLV Max Drawdown | -59% | -65% | -57% | -62% | -35% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -29% | -38% | -33% | -34% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OSIS, LDOS, LHX, SSTI, NSSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 588 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -19.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 421 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 644 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1195 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Evolv Technologies's stock fell -27.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | EVLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 588 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 421 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 644 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1195 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1674 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -87.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 722.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1687 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -73.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 277.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3277 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3627.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Evolv Technologies's stock fell -27.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
Evolv Technologies (EVLV) is a company dedicated to enhancing physical security through advanced, artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless screening systems. The company develops and deploys innovative solutions designed to detect dangerous items such as firearms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and tactical knives in high-traffic environments. Its core objective is to improve safety while ensuring a seamless and efficient experience for visitors entering various venues.
The company's primary offerings include Evolv Express, a flagship touchless security screening system that allows individuals to walk through at a normal pace without needing to divest most personal items, significantly improving throughput. Another key product, Evolv Edge, expands detection capabilities to include non-metallic explosive devices and other threats, again without requiring visitors to empty their pockets. Additionally, Evolv Insights provides customers with valuable operational data, offering self-serve access to analytics on visitor flow, system performance, detection rates, and alarm statistics to help optimize security operations.
Evolv Technologies primarily serves markets that require high-throughput security screening without compromising efficiency or visitor experience. This encompasses a broad range of potential customers, including sports stadiums, entertainment venues, schools, hospitals, corporate campuses, and other public or private facilities where the safe and rapid movement of large numbers of people is a critical operational priority.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolv Technologies is like Amazon Go for physical threat detection, using AI to allow people to walk through without stopping while scanning for dangers.
It's akin to Clear, but focused on detecting weapons and explosives rather than just verifying identity, streamlining security at high-traffic venues.
Think of Evolv as the Tesla of security screening, an AI-powered, touchless evolution of traditional metal detectors and X-ray machines.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Evolv Express: A touchless security screening system designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices, and tactical knives as visitors walk through.
- Evolv Insights: A platform providing self-serve access to insights regarding visitor flow, system detection performance, and alarm statistics.
- Evolv Edge: A security screening system that detects various threats, including non-metallic explosive devices, without requiring visitors to divest items from their pockets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolv Technologies (EVLV) sells its artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless security screening systems primarily to other companies and organizations (B2B) that require high-throughput security screening for visitors. These customers span various sectors, including sports and entertainment, theme parks, education, and corporate/public venues.
Here are some of Evolv Technologies' major customers:
- Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (NYSE: SIX) - A prominent operator of regional theme parks across North America, utilizing Evolv systems at many of its properties.
- Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE: FUN) - Another major owner and operator of amusement parks, water parks, and entertainment resorts, with Evolv Express deployed at several locations.
- Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) - Their luxury resort and casino properties, such as Encore Boston Harbor, utilize Evolv's security systems.
- The Atlanta Braves - The Major League Baseball team (a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation, NASDAQ: FWONA, FWONK) uses Evolv Express at Truist Park.
- The Kraft Group - A private conglomerate that owns the New England Patriots and Gillette Stadium, which was an early and significant adopter of Evolv technology.
- Numerous other professional sports teams and their venues, including those in the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum, Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, Los Angeles Rams & Chargers at SoFi Stadium). While many of these teams and stadium operating entities are private, they represent major organizational customers.
- Many K-12 school districts and universities across the United States.
- Various healthcare facilities, corporate campuses, and places of worship.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
John Kedzierski, Chief Executive Officer, President, and Director
John Kedzierski has been President and CEO of Evolv Technology since December 2024. He brings extensive experience leading high-growth security and technology businesses, having spent over 23 years at Motorola Solutions, Inc. At Motorola Solutions, he most recently served as Senior Vice President of Global Enterprise Sales and was responsible for leading global sales efforts for all enterprise verticals. Prior to that, he led product management, research and development, sales, and marketing for Motorola Solution's Video Security and Access Control business, where he helped the company become a global leader in physical security.
Chris Kutsor, Chief Financial Officer
Chris Kutsor has been Evolv Technologies' Chief Financial Officer since April 2025. From 2019 through May 2024, he served as Chief Financial Officer and was also appointed Chief Operating Officer in 2022 at Kin + Carta. While at Kin + Carta, Kutsor helped lead the transformation of twelve independent consultancies into an integrated, global technology consulting enterprise and led the sale of the publicly listed company to a private equity firm in 2024. Before joining Kin + Carta, Kutsor spent nearly 25 years at Motorola Solutions in various senior finance roles, including leading investor relations, financial management of a $2 billion global business unit, and managing venture capital investments.
Anil Chitkara, Founder and Chief Growth Officer
Anil Chitkara co-founded Evolv with Michael Ellenbogen in July 2013 and has since served as the Company's Head of Corporate Development, currently holding the title of Chief Growth Officer. Prior to co-founding Evolv, Mr. Chitkara was the Senior Vice President of Market Development for Oco, Inc., a business analytics software provider that was subsequently acquired by Deloitte. He also served as a Vice President of Parametric Technology Corporation.
Michael Ellenbogen, Founder, Chief Innovation Officer
Michael Ellenbogen co-founded Evolv with Anil Chitkara in July 2013 and served as the company's Chief Executive Officer from August 2013 to January 2020. He continues to serve as Chief Innovation Officer and a member of the Board. Before co-founding Evolv, Mr. Ellenbogen was the Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Reveal Imaging Technologies, an X-ray imaging systems company focused on automated explosives detection, which was acquired. He also held the position of Vice President of Research & Development and Business Development at PerkinElmer Detection Systems.
Rachel Roy, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer
Rachel Roy serves as General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer at Evolv Technologies. She has extensive experience building and leading global legal teams in various multinational companies, including VMware, Inc., Sensata Technologies, Publicis Groupe, and Sapient Corporation. Her expertise spans advising on employment, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), and cultural matters.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks for Evolv Technologies (EVLV) are:
-
Regulatory Scrutiny and Product Performance Concerns: Evolv Technologies faces significant risks stemming from regulatory actions and public concerns regarding the performance claims of its AI-powered security screening systems. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has taken action against Evolv for allegedly making deceptive claims about its systems' ability to detect all weapons and differentiate them from harmless personal items. Instances have been reported where Evolv Express scanners failed to detect weapons while simultaneously flagging innocent items, leading to high false alarm rates. This has resulted in a proposed FTC settlement order that includes banning unsubstantiated claims and requiring the company to offer certain K-12 school customers the option to cancel their contracts. Furthermore, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) initiated a non-public, fact-finding inquiry into the company. Such regulatory probes and performance issues can lead to reputational damage, potential litigation, customer churn, and impact the company's growth trajectory.
-
Lack of Sustained Profitability and Persistent Cash Burn: Evolv Technologies has a history of operating losses and an accumulated deficit, reporting net losses of $33.1 million in 2025 and $54.0 million in 2024. Despite a subscription-based revenue model and strong revenue growth, the company faces persistent cash burn with no clear path to achieving sustainable profitability before 2027–2030. This ongoing lack of profitability poses a material risk to the company's financial stability and attractiveness to investors.
-
Material Weaknesses in Internal Controls and Financial Reporting: The company has identified and reported material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting, which previously led to restatements of financial statements for multiple prior periods (2022, 2023, and early 2024). Although remediation efforts are ongoing, there is no guarantee of success, and the risk of further issues remains. These control weaknesses create continued financial reporting, regulatory, and reputational risks, and could impact investor confidence and exposure to potential regulatory actions or litigation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Evolv Technologies (NASDAQ: EVLV) operates within addressable markets driven by the increasing global demand for advanced security screening systems, particularly those leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and touchless technologies for threat detection.
The company's core products, such as Evolv Express and Evolv Edge, target the detection of firearms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and tactical knives. The addressable markets for these solutions, and for Evolv Technologies generally, include:
- Evolv Technologies estimates a large addressable market of approximately 400,000 sites and 700,000 screening thresholds globally.
- The total addressable market for AI weapons/gun/concealed weapon detection, where Evolv is a leader, is forecasted to be between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2030, globally.
- The global concealed weapon detection systems market was valued at USD 0.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.1 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.28% globally. The U.S. market for these systems was valued at USD 0.25 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 0.67 billion by 2032.
- The global gun detection system market is estimated at USD 1.076 billion in 2026 and is expected to rise to USD 2.395 billion by 2035, experiencing a CAGR of 9.30% globally. North America holds a 45% share of this global market.
- For explosive detection, relevant to products like Evolv Edge, the global explosive detector market size was valued at USD 8.95 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of over 12% between 2024 and 2032. The North American explosive detectors market accounted for over 30% of the revenue share in 2023. Another report indicates the global explosive detector market size was USD 5.97 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 11.10 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 8.2% globally.
- More broadly, the global security screening market, which encompasses Evolv's offerings, is projected to grow from USD 10.0 billion in 2025 to USD 18.4 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 7.1% globally. North America is expected to lead this market, accounting for approximately 35.0% of the total market revenue in 2025. Another estimate puts the global security screening market at USD 10.9 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 22.4 billion by 2036 with a CAGR of 7.5%. The U.S. security screening market is forecast to grow at a 7.8% CAGR.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Evolv Technologies (EVLV) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Customer Adoption and Expansion: Evolv Technologies anticipates continued revenue growth through the acquisition of new customers and the expansion of deployments within its existing customer base. The company added over 60 new customers in Q4 2025, increasing its global customer count to over 1,200. This expansion also includes a significant increase in Evolv Express subscriptions.
- Expansion into New Vertical Markets: The company is actively pursuing growth by penetrating new sectors. Recent examples of this expansion include securing 12 new school districts and 3 universities, as well as significant partnerships in healthcare (e.g., American Hospital Association) and sports venues (e.g., upgrades at TD Garden and Crypto.com Arena).
- Accelerated Growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) through Subscription Models: Evolv Technologies is strategically shifting towards a subscription-based "security-as-a-service" model and a direct purchase fulfillment model. This transition is expected to drive a higher mix of recurring revenue and improve financial economics. The company reported ARR of $120.5 million at the end of Q4 2025, a 21% year-over-year increase, and projects ARR to reach $145 million to $150 million by the end of 2026.
- Launch and Adoption of New Products and Services: The successful launch and increasing adoption of new products, such as the eXpedite AI-based bag screening solution, are expected to contribute to revenue growth. eXpedite has already been adopted by 65 customers, with 16 new customers added in Q4 2025. Management believes this product will lead to higher attach rates, further customer expansion, and increased subscription stickiness.
- Leveraging a Growing Total Addressable Market and Market Leadership: Evolv Technologies is positioned within a rapidly expanding market for AI-powered security screening, with the total addressable market projected to reach between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2030. The company's AI-powered Express scanner has already screened over 4 billion people worldwide and screens more individuals daily than the TSA, demonstrating significant scale and market penetration that underpins future growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. had a 3-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -3.80% as of September 2025, which indicates a potential for share issuance rather than repurchases over that period.
- Evolv Technologies went public in 2021 through a merger with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), NewHold Investment Corp., which involved significant share issuance.
- The SPAC merger transaction was anticipated to generate approximately $470 million in proceeds.
- At the close of the SPAC merger, existing Evolv shareholders were projected to own about 71.6% of the fully diluted shares, with PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) shareholders holding 17.2%.
- The SPAC merger with NewHold Investment Corp. in 2021 was a significant inbound investment event, expected to bring in around $470 million.
- The PIPE round associated with the SPAC merger included notable investors such as Motorola Solutions, Inc., Magnetar Capital, Eldridge, Senator Investment Group, and UBS O'Connor, as well as individuals like Bill Gates and Peyton Manning.
- Vanguard Group Inc. increased its holdings in Evolv Technologies by 17.1% in the third quarter of 2025, acquiring an additional 1,750,073 shares, bringing their total ownership to 11,981,998 shares valued at approximately $90.46 million.
- In the last 12 months (prior to March 2026), Evolv Technologies reported capital expenditures of approximately -$31.37 million.
- The company's focus on "heavy investment in R&D and market expansion" likely contributes to its capital expenditures.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Evolv Technologies Stock On Fire: Up 16% With 7-Day Winning Streak | 03/24/2026 | |
| Evolv Technologies Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Evolv Technologies Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,002 |
| Op Inc LTM | 143 |
| FCF LTM | 53 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 29 |
| CFO LTM | 76 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 47 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services | 146 | 104 | 80 | ||
| Leased Equipment | 18 | 8 | |||
| License fees | 0 | ||||
| Product revenue | 32 | 14 | |||
| Professional services and other revenue | 1 | ||||
| Service revenue | 4 | ||||
| Professional Services | 1 | ||||
| Software-as-a-service (SaaS), maintenance, and other revenue | 1 | ||||
| Total | 146 | 104 | 80 | 55 | 23 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Develops, manufactures, markets and sells security screening products and specific services | -33 | -54 | -108 |
| Total | -33 | -54 | -108 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/29/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.38 | $6.61 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -13.1% | -16.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| Downside Capture | 185.11 | 137.60 |
| Upside Capture | 84.38 | 96.08 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.6% | 31.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.43 | 0.28 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.52 |
| Up Beta | -0.84 | 0.30 | 1.19 | 1.62 | 1.98 | 1.56 |
| Down Beta | -0.58 | -0.40 | 2.21 | 1.26 | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| Up Capture | -102% | 36% | 110% | 79% | 84% | 316% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 24 | 38 | 65 | 126 | 346 |
| Down Capture | 79% | 23% | 59% | 106% | 100% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 15 | 23 | 56 | 118 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EVLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVLV | 0.4% | 51.9% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 29.7% | 16.2% | 1.42 | 21.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.1% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 31.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.77 | -5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.8% | 0.57 | 14.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.2% | 42.5% | -1.09 | 26.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EVLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVLV | -11.2% | 86.0% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 17.5% | 0.62 | 27.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 27.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 54.1% | 0.37 | 17.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EVLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVLV | -17.4% | 81.4% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.4% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 19.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 22.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.62 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 19.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 10.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -13.5% | -18.0% | -11.8% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.5% | 1.1% | 16.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.8% | -14.0% | 4.3% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.2% | 6.2% | 14.4% |
| 5/20/2025 | 7.4% | 0.5% | 3.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 22.7% | 20.8% | 11.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -5.0% | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -38.5% | -28.6% | -34.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 17.9% | 11.7% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -19.9% | -23.2% |
| Max Positive | 32.6% | 38.3% | 66.1% |
| Max Negative | -43.1% | -43.1% | -34.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/12/2026 | -13.5% | -18.0% | -11.8% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.5% | 1.1% | 16.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.8% | -14.0% | 4.3% |
| 8/14/2025 | 5.2% | 6.2% | 14.4% |
| 5/20/2025 | 7.4% | 0.5% | 3.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 22.7% | 20.8% | 11.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -5.0% | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -38.5% | -28.6% | -34.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | -16.8% | -21.8% | 7.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | -7.9% | 1.3% | 7.7% |
| 8/10/2023 | 31.2% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| 5/10/2023 | 26.1% | 37.4% | 51.5% |
| 3/1/2023 | 11.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 32.6% | 38.3% | 34.8% |
| 8/10/2022 | 5.3% | 2.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/11/2022 | 19.2% | 34.5% | 66.1% |
| 3/14/2022 | -43.1% | -43.1% | -21.4% |
| 11/10/2021 | 17.9% | 8.2% | -23.1% |
| 8/16/2021 | -6.7% | -9.2% | -29.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 17.9% | 11.7% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -19.9% | -23.2% |
| Max Positive | 32.6% | 38.3% | 66.1% |
| Max Negative | -43.1% | -43.1% | -34.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 04/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 04/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 04/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 04/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 175.00 Mil | 177.50 Mil | 180.00 Mil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 175.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Ending ARR | 145.00 Mil | 147.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 147.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | |||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 172.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 178.00 Mil | 22.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 143.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Ending ARR | 145.00 Mil | 147.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 6.21 | 80,745 | 501,426 | 12,941,398 | Form | |
| 2 | Marshall, Robert E | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 6.85 | 62,067 | 425,159 | 556,878 | Form |
| 3 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 5.63 | 80,745 | 454,594 | 11,732,700 | Form | |
| 4 | Kutsor, George C | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 7.27 | 51,448 | 374,027 | 635,689 | Form |
| 5 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 6.32 | 80,745 | 510,308 | 13,170,634 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 6.21 | 80,745 | 501,426 | 12,941,398 | Form | |
| 2 | Marshall, Robert E | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 6.85 | 62,067 | 425,159 | 556,878 | Form |
| 3 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 5.63 | 80,745 | 454,594 | 11,732,700 | Form | |
| 4 | Kutsor, George C | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 7.27 | 51,448 | 374,027 | 635,689 | Form |
| 5 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 6.32 | 80,745 | 510,308 | 13,170,634 | Form | |
| 6 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 5.10 | 91,771 | 468,032 | 10,628,201 | Form | |
| 7 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 5.19 | 82,913 | 430,318 | 11,292,049 | Form | |
| 8 | Chitkara, Anil | Founder & Chief Growth Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 5.19 | 63,670 | 330,447 | 6,999,499 | Form |
| 9 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 5.47 | 80,745 | 441,675 | 11,399,267 | Form | |
| 10 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 6.20 | 80,745 | 500,619 | 12,920,558 | Form | |
| 11 | Kedzierski, John | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 7.03 | 74,322 | 522,484 | 988,966 | Form |
| 12 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 6.91 | 80,745 | 557,948 | 14,400,171 | Form | |
| 13 | Marshall, Robert E | Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 6.06 | 7,000 | 42,420 | 42,420 | Form |
| 14 | Kedzierski, John | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 5.91 | 8,000 | 47,280 | 47,280 | Form |
| 15 | Charlton, Kevin M | IRA | Buy | 11212025 | 5.68 | 15,000 | 85,196 | 250,367 | Form | |
| 16 | Shapiro, Richard A | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 6.00 | 30,000 | 180,000 | 315,090 | Form | |
| 17 | Shapiro, Richard A | Held by a trust | Buy | 11202025 | 6.02 | 7,500 | 45,150 | 135,450 | Form | |
| 18 | Shapiro, Richard A | Held by spouse in a retirement plan | Buy | 11202025 | 6.02 | 8,800 | 52,976 | 98,728 | Form | |
| 19 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 5.80 | 80,745 | 468,321 | 12,086,974 | Form | |
| 20 | Chitkara, Anil | Founder & Chief Growth Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 8.20 | 120,000 | 984,000 | 10,455,820 | Form |
| 21 | Chitkara, Anil | Founder & Chief Growth Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 8.20 | 240,000 | 1,968,000 | 10,455,820 | Form |
| 22 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 8.26 | 80,745 | 666,954 | 17,213,518 | Form | |
| 23 | Ellenbogen, Michael | Founder & Chief Innovation Ofc | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 8.46 | 80,745 | 683,103 | 17,630,310 | Form |
| 24 | Gates, Frontier, Llc | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 8.20 | 776,236 | 6,366,688 | 140,984,965 | Form | |
| 25 | Gates, Frontier, Llc | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 8.03 | 694,464 | 5,578,838 | 144,320,902 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Security & Alarm Services Resources |
| Security Magazine |
| Security Sales & Integration (SSI) |
| SDM Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.