Rekor Systems (REKR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.99 | Market Cap: $233.7 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Rekor Systems (REKR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.99Market Cap: $233.7 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -86% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 126% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -43% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Edge AI, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -39 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -86% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 126% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -43% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 129% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REKR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Preliminary Q3 2025 Financial Results: Rekor Systems announced its preliminary financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 14, 2025, expecting record quarterly revenue between $13.9 million and $14.3 million. The announcement also projected a significant reduction in adjusted EBITDA loss and an expanded gross margin, directly coinciding with a reported 73% share price surge.
2. Record Q3 2025 Revenue: On November 13, 2025, Rekor Systems reported actual record Q3 2025 revenue of $14.2 million, marking a 35% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This revenue performance surpassed forecasts and demonstrated strong growth in its public safety and urban mobility businesses.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REKR Return | 111% | -19% | -82% | 178% | -53% | 24% | -49% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 6% | -31% | 39% | -9% | 4% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REKR Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 25% | 58% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 12% | 27% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REKR Max Drawdown | -34% | -25% | -91% | -17% | -76% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | 0% | -1% | -34% | -10% | -22% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4140.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 776.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 120 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK
In The Past
Rekor Systems's stock fell -97.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/27/2021. A -97.6% loss requires a 4140.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REKR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rekor Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | -43 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 117 |
| CFO LTM | 188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -19.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -11.3 |
| P/E | 14.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 31.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 20.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |